OOTP Brewers: Taking Stock

Sometimes the math just works out perfectly. Coming into today, our fictional OOTP Brewers have played exactly one third of their season. At 32-22, we’re atop the NL Central by four games, an outcome I would have happily accepted before the season started. Let’s take a look at how we got here before considering our next steps.

First, let’s talk NL Central. The division isn’t the four-way race that many pundits expected before the year began. In fact, the Cardinals have faded more or less completely out of contention:

The true surprise in the division is the Pirates. Keyed by Chris Archer and Joe Musgrove, they’ve allowed the fourth-fewest runs against in the league. On the offensive side, Josh Bell is having a solid year; his 128 wRC+ and 17 home runs pace the team. But despite the hot start, problem spots remain: the team is 11th in the NL in overall wOBA, as well as 11th in FIP. It isn’t hard to imagine the run-scoring numbers moving down to match the peripherals, which would leave the Pirates on the fringes of the playoff chase.

As for the Cardinals, it’s fair to say they’ve been felled by the injury bug. Miles Mikolas is out for the year. Kolten Wong is currently on the shelf with back soreness. Whit Merrifield, a key offseason acquisition in our league, has only 55 plate appearances and is still on the IL, though he’ll be back soon. Andrew Miller is rehabbing an injury. Kwang Hyun Kim is on the shelf. It’s a messy situation in St. Louis.

As for the Brewers, we’ve had our fair share of injuries as well. Josh Lindblom 린드블럼 won’t be back until July. Alex Claudio and Corbin Burnes are out for the year. Brett Anderson felt something in his arm in a start this weekend, his first start back from his second (!) trip to the IL this year. Luis Urías is active now, but it took him a while to get there. But there’s enough depth there, enough overlapping backups, that the team’s run scoring and prevention numbers look more or less acceptable:

The FIP and runs allowed numbers likely undersell the team somewhat due to a 25-run blowout that heavily featured position players in relief, but the general shape of the team is what you’d expect of the Brewers coming into the year: good offense, and a pitching staff with good strikeout stuff and middling overall numbers. The 32-22 record is a pleasant surprise, particularly after an uneven start to the year, but the way the team has arrived there makes perfect sense.

On offense, the Brewers, with apologies to Denny Green, are who we thought they were. Christian Yelich is tearing the league to shreds, and some other guys on the team are chipping in with the bat as well. Take a look at every player with 75 or more plate appearances this season:

Lorenzo Cain’s earlier woes drag his overall line down, but he’s been basically fine after an icy-cold start. Yelich has compiled 3.6 WAR already; he’s the beating heart of the offense. The rest of the bats have chipped in roughly as expected, with the exception of Braun and Smoak. They’re combining to drag down the team’s production at first base, but with Urías back in the fold, Brock Holt can take over some of those duties if they continue to scuffle. The offense seems to be in good shape.

On the pitching side, the dual stopper bullpen is working. Corey Knebel hasn’t allowed a run in 9.1 innings since returning, and his 2.28 FIP suggests that it’s not a complete fluke. Josh Hader has struck out 44.3% of opponents over 24 innings; despite an earlier bout with homeritis, he has a 4.5 ERA and a 3.56 FIP. Scott Barlow has been a worthy setup man in front of the two end bosses; his 23.5% strikeout rate isn’t overwhelming, but he’s limited home runs (a thing that truly exists in OOTP in a way that it doesn’t in the real world) and produced a 3.61 FIP to go with a 2.75 ERA.

The back of the bullpen could still use some work. A number of desultory characters have pitched a handful of innings in relief; Shelby Miller (since claimed on waivers by the Nationals), Angel Perdomo, and Bobby Wahl all had big league stints. And there’s a new bullpen member who has yet to throw a pitch in relief; star-crossed Brewer Brett Anderson.

That’s right; Anderson is our new lefty specialist out of the bullpen, giving Tim Hill a break for the moment. That also means he’s no longer a member of the rotation, which means the team has made some transactions since last week.

Over the weekend, Anderson, as mentioned, left his first start back from injury with arm soreness. Enough was enough — I reheated some trade talks and decided to get a starter. Last week, you voted to stick with team depth, but with Anderson headed right back for the shelf, that felt insufficient to me. The vote, after all, was about how to deal with a Corbin Burnes injury, not a Brett Anderson one. The next-most-popular option as to trade for an exciting veteran. And just like that, Kevin Gausman is a member of the Brewers.

The new-look Brewers rotation goes like this (Gausman’s stats are from the Giants):

Gausman and Houser are both acceptable second starters and excellent third starters. Woodruff hasn’t quite pitched to his ace status yet, but he’s capable of it. And Peralta is showing signs of mastering the control issues that have plagued him at times, though he’s replaced that with a raftload of home runs allowed. And Lauer is an acceptable fifth starter.

Acquiring a starter like this universe’s Gausman isn’t usually cheap, even though he’s a one-year rental. And the cost was dear; Zack Brown, a still-bright pitching prospect who took a step backward in 2019 but has been pitching quite well in virtual 2020, and my personal favorite Brewer Hicklen, who has an excellent name and has been solid in Double-A this season. Both are on the 40/45 fringe on the scouting scale, valuable depth pieces who could blossom into something more.

Still, they’re surplus. Neither looked like a strong bet to contribute this year, and both most likely projected as depth pieces in the future. Gausman could recoup that value this year, and we’ve already engaged in early talks about an extension; he fits the bill of a player who might be happy to lock up a medium-term deal with team-friendly AAV’s, the kind of competent rotation depth that the Brewers attempted to acquire in bulk this offseason.

There’s no real poll today; there are no obvious moves to make at the moment, no players who need a new position or a rest to clear their head. The amateur draft is headed our way, and soon enough we’ll shift our focus there. But for now, how about a general satisfaction poll?

Due to the timing of this article and Monday’s holiday, the usual FanGraphs Live stream will take place tomorrow at noon ET. We’ll take a look at the draft a bit, tinker around with the lineup, and generally learn a little more about OOTP. See you then!