Charlie Morton Is the Unluckiest of the Playoffs

When Charlie Morton was a Pirate and this author a beat reporter covering Pittsburgh’s ball club, I became familiar with Morton through a number of conversations.

He was one of the first players I encountered who discussed having employed PITCHf/x data to better understand his performance, to move away from the box score as a means of evaluation. He would have phone calls with his father during which they discussed the velocity and movement from his appearances as recorded by pitch-tracking technology. Morton struggled mightily at times early in his career with Pittsburgh and Atlanta before that, but not all of it was his fault. He was one of the first pitchers with whom I spoke who wanted to better understand how to separate his own performance from those other variables that lead to run-prevention and -allowance. He wanted to know how he could better control what he could control. Data helped keep Morton sane.

This is pertinent today, because we might not see a better performance lead to a poorer pitching line this postseason than the performance and line produced by Morton on Monday night.

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Playoff Games Tend to Take a Very Long Time

Less than a week ago, in Game 5 of the NLDS, the Cubs and the Nationals played one of the more strange nine-inning games that I can remember. I don’t need to go back over the details; Nationals fans don’t want to revisit them, and Cubs fans currently have more pressing matters on the mind. But in the end, Wade Davis struck out Bryce Harper to wrap up the bottom of the ninth. The game was never dull, as the Cubs escaped by only one run. Yet it became the longest nine-inning game in baseball’s postseason history. The first pitch was thrown at 8:08pm local time. The last one was thrown 277 minutes later.

Clearly, no conclusion can be reached based just on one extreme. It’s not like nine innings of playoff baseball always take four and a half hours. But, you might have a gut feeling that playoff games have been taking a while. They have been! Because they almost always do. For a variety of reasons, when it comes to planning your day around a playoff baseball game, you should carve out a bigger chunk of free time. By roughly half an hour or so.

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“Do You Go To FanGraphs At All” T-Shirts Back in Stock

Last month, I wrote about a new t-shirt inspired by Daniel Murphy that we had put up for sale. It looks like this:

Here’s some more info on it, in case you don’t want to click through.

Like our other recent t-shirt creations, this shirt is a Canvas Jersey T-shirt, and as you can see, it comes in black. The black, to me, is notable, as we’ve never made a black t-shirt before. The shirt, also like our other recent t-shirt creations, was designed by Aaron Gershman of Creative Sentencing. You should definitely hire Aaron for your next design project.

In short order, the shirt sold out in several sizes. I am here to tell you that those shirts have been re-stocked, and are available for purchase in sizes from small to 2X. So, go forth and order!

Well, OK, this has been a pretty short post, so let me leave you with this nugget of info. Did you know that of the 139 players who have accumulated at least 500 plate appearances with the Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals franchise, that Murphy is tied for first with Rusty Staub in terms of wRC+? Well, it’s true. They both have a 146 wRC+ in an Expos/Nationals uniform. Now, you know. And knowing is half the battle.

In closing, please buy our t-shirts. Thank you.


A.J. Hinch Is Right About Lance McCullers

The Astros announced last night that Lance McCullers will take the ball in today’s Game 4 of the ALCS. When asked why he chose McCullers over Brad Peacock, A.J. Hinch responded with a simple answer: “He’s really good.”

McCullers certainly has been really good at times, and he was one of the AL’s best pitchers in the first half of the season, running a 3.05 ERA/2.74 FIP/2.74 xFIP before the All-Star break. But back problems put him on the DL a few times in the second half, and when he did pitch, he wasn’t particularly effective, running an 8.23 ERA/4.29 FIP/4.58 xFIP. At the end of July, I noted that the Astros had a Lance McCullers problem, and they never really got it fixed.

If the Astros were convinced that McCullers was healthy and back to his first-half form, they would have started him in the ALDS. Instead, they went with Peacock as their 4th starter in that series, and used McCullers in relief when that didn’t go well. So why are they showing confidence today in a guy who hasn’t gotten hitters out regularly in several months?

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We Need to Talk About Todd Frazier’s Home Run

I have a handful of rules I try to abide as an everyday writer. For example, I try not to pick favorites. My job isn’t to have any favorites. My job is to try to be as objective as possible. I also think it’s vitally important to not tell people how they ought to feel. This is sports. You’re in it for your own reasons. It’s not my business to dictate how you consume your chosen form of entertainment. You should get from baseball whatever you want to get. You should feel about baseball however you want to feel.

That being said, now I’m going to cross myself. I’m going to violate one of my own rules. Let’s focus on Todd Frazier’s early three-run homer in Monday’s Game 3. The internet response was fairly consistent: joke of a stadium, and/or the ball is juiced. The response was uniformly derisive. I get it, because I felt the same way! But I’ve come all the way around, and I’d like to encourage you to do the same, if you can. That wasn’t a home run to be mocked. That was a home run to be celebrated. For Todd Frazier, it was a good piece of hitting.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 10/17

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Is this thing on?

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: So it is.

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: In case you missed it, BA’s John Manuel is taking a job with the Twins. I wish him well.

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: OKay, baseball stuff.

12:03
Sam: Anything new you’ve heard on the Atlanta investigation?

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Just that it’s almost concluded, nothing else that isn’t out there publicly.

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Starters Are Pitching in Relief More Often This Postseason

(Photo: Keith Allison)

The narrative of this postseason has been the ubiquity of the reliever, the increased tendency of teams to use their bullpens early and often. To a certain extent, that narrative is grounded in reality. We saw it right away in the American League Wild Card Game, for example, when the Yankees’ Luis Severino recorded only a single out and then a quartet of New York relievers pitched what was essentially an impromptu bullpen game. Combine that with the paltry two innings that Ervin Santana procured for the Twins and just 13.5% of the innings in that game were completed by starting pitchers.

The next night played out similarly, as Jon Gray and Zack Greinke survived just five half-innings between them, or 29.4% of the game’s total.

So, yes, relief pitchers have played a major role in the postseason. The use of bullpens, however, might not represent the greatest break from tradition. To quote a powerful sorcerer, things aren’t always what they seem.

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We Need More Astros

My wife and I were driving from the west side of Cleveland to my parents’ place on the east side of the city over the weekend. During a lull in the in-car conversation, I elected to carry out a small-sample experiment.

Before I detail the finer points of that experiment, though, a bit of context. As you’re likely aware, there’s been much discussion about and handwringing over the increasing frequency of the Three True Outcomes in the game, over the decline of balls in play, and, by extension, the greater amounts of downtime between moments of action.

Consider this remarkable nugget from Dan Hirsch:

What we see here is an effect with a number of causes: fewer balls in play, greater stretches of time between pitches, and longer commercial breaks. It took John Lackey about five minutes to throw six pitches on Sunday night.

That’s a remarkable trend, and I think we all understand why the commissioner’s office has been concerned about the dwindling number of balls in play while also wanting to experiment with pitch clocks and pace rules.

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Effectively Wild Episode 1124: Winging It

EWFI

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Ben’s wedding weekend, the outfield-wall padding at Minute Maid Park, the rapid repair of a behind-home-plate sign, and a very long pause between pitches, then discuss the first four games of the championship series, including Joe Maddon’s decision-making in Game 2, the Cubs’ moribund offense, the pivotal plays of the first two games of the ALCS, the excellence of Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander, the rest of the Astros’ rotation, Aaron Judge’s strike zone, and more.

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FanGraphs Audio: Mike Hattery, FanGraphs Resident for September

Episode 776
Mike Hattery is a contributor to Cleveland sports weblog Waiting for Next Year and served as FanGraphs’ writer-in-residence for the month of September. He’s also the guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 5 min play time.)

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