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A Note About Harold Ramirez

November 20, 2017

Harold Ramirez, once a top 100 prospect, was outrighted by the Toronto Blue Jays today. A 23 year old that used to have speed and bat-to-ball skills on his side, Ramirez has seen knee injuries rob him of the former. He was never a center fielder, and now has a ways to go to prove that he has the upside that his hitting tool once suggested he did.

But this may be a learning moment for Ramirez. Take a look at something Eric Longenhangen wrote this spring:

There are scouts who think Ramirez is a future plus hitter but acknowledge that it’s unlikely there will be more than 40 game power here at peak unless he drastically alters his approach. That offensive profile doesn’t play in left field without good defense, something I’m increasingly skeptical Ramirez will be able to provide. He hits, and therefore will likely find some sort of big-league role, likely as a bat-first bench outfielder.

Now take a look at all minor leaguers under the age of 24, graphed by their ground ball to fly ball ratio and speed score. Ramirez is in red.

It’s untenable to be as slow as Ramirez is now and hit as many grounders. That’s why he was released. He’s not a center fielder, so a decent hit tool alone is not going to float him to the major leagues.

But Ramirez is still young, and still has that hit tool — he was in the top 25 in the same grouping by strikeout rate — and another team may give him a chance. A chance to drastically alter his approach. And a release is just the kind of moment that spurs this kind of change.

The Giants Need More Than Just Giancarlo Stanton

by Jeff Sullivan

November 20, 2017

If the Giants weren’t 2017’s biggest disappointment, it’s only because the Mets lived their own waking nightmare. The Giants remain a popular product, but with popularity comes expectations, and the Giants have been garbage for a year and a half, in large part because the home-run spike seems to have passed them right by. Fast-forward to the present day, and the Giants find themselves in a situation of some urgency. They want to maintain their market share in the region, and they could stand to add some dingers. The Giants haven’t hit many dingers. They don’t want to spend another year in the basement.

It seems like the stars are aligning almost perfectly. When the Giants have needed help the most, there has become available a certain player, a certain dinger-hitter and league MVP, a lineup-changing colossus who’s rumored to want to play out west, around where he grew up. It’s no secret the Marlins are looking to trade Giancarlo Stanton, and it’s no surprise the Giants are deeply involved in the mix. Nothing has yet actually happened, but the two current favorites would have to be the Giants and the Cardinals. They’re the suitors who’ve been most aggressive.

And yet I’m not sold the Giants make such great sense. One can speculate only so much about a move that would be undoubtedly complicated, but the Giants don’t find themselves in an enviable position. Acquiring Stanton could be an awfully dangerous commitment.

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The Impact of Payroll Tax on the Pursuit of Giancarlo Stanton

by Craig Edwards

November 20, 2017

“I know all teams have plenty of money.”

—Giancarlo Stanton

This season’s National League MVP, Giancarlo Stanton, recently addressed rumors that Miami might trade him, noting that the club could immediately become a postseason contender with the addition of pitching. His suggestion that all teams have plenty of money certainly appears to be a response to speculation that the Marlins intend to slash payroll a few months after having been purchased for more than a billion dollars.

It also stands to reason that he was commenting upon the fact any club could theoretically afford to acquire Stanton and the $295 million remaining on his contract. In one sense, he’s probably right. Revenues in baseball are at an all-time high. For a number of reasons, however, there’s not a direct correlation in baseball between revenues and spending.

One main reason is the competitive-balance tax, formerly known as the luxury tax. The cap for the tax has increased at only about half the rate of MLB payrolls. Accordingly, more teams find themselves up against a tax that was made more painful in the last CBA. Those taxes have pretty drastic effects on the trade market for Giancarlo Stanton, putting some teams out of the bidding and making the cost for others high enough that a competitive offer might be unreasonable.

Two years ago, Nathaniel Grow wrote an excellent piece about the implications of the luxury tax this century, showing how many teams used the tax as a cap, which has driven down spending relative to revenue over the last decade. In the last few years, the tax threshold has grown at a very slow rate, such that, by the end of the current CBA, teams with an average payroll will find themselves just a single major free-agent signing away from transcending it. The graph below depicts both average team payrolls and the tax threshold since 2003.

Over the last 15 years, payroll has grown at a pace 50% faster than that of the competitive-balance tax amount. However, the chart above actually overstates the rate at which the competitive-balance threshold has grown. From 2003 until the beginning of the previous CBA in 2011, the luxury tax grew at a rate pretty close to MLB payrolls, even if it did depress salaries compared to revenue. Beginning with the CBA that started in 2011 and the new CBA, which goes through 2021, the competitive-balance tax has seen barely any growth, especially when it comes to payroll.

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Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

by Travis Sawchik

November 20, 2017