Projecting Zack Littel and Dietrich Enns

The Yankees acquired Jaime Garcia from the Twins for prospects Zack Littell and Dietrich Enns. You may remember that the Twins acquired Garcia less than a week ago. For their trouble, the Twins seemingly got a better return for Garcia than they gave up to acquire him. I have Huascar Ynoa projected for 1.9 WAR (by both KATOH and KATOH+), which is about half as much as Littell and Enns combined. It’s worth noting, however, that the Yankees are facing a 40-man roster crunch, so dealing Littell and Enns clears space for other prospects.

Below are the projections for the Twins’ newest prospects. WAR figures account for the player’s first six major-league seasons. KATOH denotes the stats-only version of the projection system, while KATOH+ denotes the methodology that includes a player’s prospect rankings.

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Jaime Garcia Traded to New York, Becomes Poor-Man’s Mike Piazza

The New York Yankees had been in the trade market for a starting pitcher — or at least had been rumored to be in it — even before Michael Pineda was felled by an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. While a trade prior to Pineda’s injury was seen as a luxury, it became a necessity once he was out for the season. They fulfilled that necessity this morning, when they acquired Jaime Garcia — whose two trades in a week, with the final one landing him in New York make him a very poor man’s version of Mike Piazza.

Before we get into this trade, can we just acknowledge the bizarro world detail of it? Per Joel Sherman:
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Sunday Notes: Lars Anderson is a Fighting Dog (as is Manny Ramirez)

Lars Anderson likes to experience new things, and he’s currently doing so on the other side of the world. One year removed from a season in the Dodgers system, the 29-year-old former top prospect in the Red Sox organization is playing with the Kochi Fighting Dogs, an independent team in Japan’s Shikoku Island League. One of his teammates is Manny Ramirez.

Anderson — featured in this column a few years ago — had gone from shooting star to minor league role player, and riding the pine wasn’t his cup of tea. As he told me recently, “I love playing baseball. I do not love watching it.” He began daydreaming about places that interested him culturally, and also had professional baseball. Japan was at the top of his list.

Conversations with Terrmel Sledge and John Bowker — each of whom had played in both MLB and NPB — followed. The Fighting Dogs made an offer, and come the third week of March, Anderson arrived in Kochi.  

Things have gone well. The Shikoku Island League plays a split season — “there are no official games in June and July due to the rainy season” — and Anderson finished the April-May first half leading the league in home runs. Facing pitchers “with a wide range of ability” he was second in RBIs, and in the Top 10 in batting average. The second half of the Fighting Dogs schedule begins tomorrow.

Along with Anderson, Manny Being Manny will remain with the team. The two have known each other since they were teammates with the Triple-A Iowa Cubs in 2014, and not surprisingly Anderson has an appreciation for the enigmatic one-time superstar. Read the rest of this entry »


The Phillies’ Returns for Hellickson and Kendrick

Philadelphia made a pair of trades Friday, sending Howie Kendrick to Washington for LHP McKenzie Mills. They also traded RHP Jeremy Hellickson to Baltimore for LHP Garrett Cleavinger and OF Hyun Soo Kim. Philadelphia also received bonus pool money from both clubs.

Baltimore gets
RHP Jeremy Hellickson

Washington gets
2B Howie Kendrick

Philadelphia gets
LHP McKenzie Mills
LHP Garrett Cleavinger
OF Hyun Soo Kim
International Bonus Slots

Mills is a 21-year old, big-bodied lefty with advanced changeup feel. He was an 18th round pick out of Sprayberry HS (GA) in 2014 and then spent each of his first three pro seasons in either rookie or short-season ball. Mills struggled with control. His strikeout and walk rates — 20% and 12%, respectively, in 2016 and 28% and 5% this year — have both drastically improved this year and he’s having more success as the season goes on despite having already doubled his innings total frmo last year.

As far as the stuff in concerned, Mills is a deceptive 88-92 with downhill plane and could have an above average changeup at maturity. His below average curveball has shape but not power. He can locate it, and his other pitches, and projects to have starter’s control/command. He has K’d 118 hitters in 104.2 innings with Low-A Potomac and is a potential backend starter.

Cleavinger, a 2015 3rd rounder out of Oregon, is a pure relief prospect with a low-90s fastball and loopy, twisting curveball. His command is very erratic and, while he has premium loogy funk and repertoire, it needs to develop significantly if Cleavinger’s to have a steady big league role.

The Phillies also acquired $1 million in international bonus money yesterday General Manager Matt Klentak’s post-trade comments indicate that money will be speculatively used to as yet unidentified or available talent on the international market. The Phillies were originally allotted a $4.75 million bonus pool for the international period and spent a significant amount of it on five players, including SS Luis Garcia ($2.5 mil) and four other players who all signed for around $500k each.


The Best of FanGraphs: July 24-28, 2017

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times and blue for Community Research.
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Effectively Wild Episode 1090: What a Bummer

EWFI

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about humorless umpires and the on-deck circle, Michael Blazek and disaster starts, the MLB promotion of Aaron Bummer (and the nickname “Bummer” in baseball), the Brewers, Jaime Garcia and the Twins, the latest Mariners-Rays trade, Adrian Beltre’s book-worthy career, and David Price’s arm issues.

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Daily Prospect Notes: 7/27 and 7/28

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Michael Kopech, RHP, Chicago AL (Profile)
Level: Double-A   Age: 21   Org Rank: 3   Top 100: 21
Line: 6 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 1 R, 12 K

Notes
Engineered in a lab by the Abercrombie Corperation and then accidentally exposed to Serum 102 by The Syndicate, Kopech’s superhuman stuff is almost unhittable when he’s throwing strikes and, for his last few starts, he has. Kopech has a chance to have an 80 fastball and two plus secondary pitches, giving him one of the few true top-of-the-rotation ceilings in all of prospectdom.

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Tim Anderson, Paul DeJong, and Terrible Plate Discipline

This is not just about the Cardinals’ shortstop Paul DeJong. He’s the subject of the sarcastic tweet below, but the point is that this sort of sentiment — surprise at a walk from a player with poor plate discipline — is increasingly more common in today’s game.

It’s true, he walked! It’s also true he hasn’t walked much this year, and that he strikes out a lot. For the season, he has coupled a 2.6% BB% with a 31.3% K%. Yikes! But, with today’s power environment, this sort of plate discipline is more…allowable. Used to be, if you struck out four times for every walk, you just didn’t have a spot in baseball. That’s not true any more.

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Justin Wilson’s Old New Pitch

Justin Wilson used to throw more than a modicum of curveballs, but that was when he was a starter. The Detroit Tigers closer largely shelved the pitch a few years ago, as it had been serving primarily as a get-me-over option. He didn’t feel it was beneficial out of the bullpen. As Wilson explained to me in June, “it was kind of loopy — the action just wasn’t there — so it definitely wasn’t a put-away pitch.”

The 29-year-old southpaw came into 2017 wanting to resurrect it — sort of. Mostly, he wanted a lower-octane offering to augment his bread-and-butter. Since becoming a reliever, Wilson has relied almost exclusively on a fastball and a cutter.

“I wanted something to slow guys down,” explained Wilson, whose days in Motown — if trade rumors are to be believed — are numbered. “When a hitter saw a scouting report on me, everything was hard. My fastball. My cutter is hard. There was nothing with a speed change. I worked on that over the winter, and kept it going into the spring.”

Over the course of the current campaign, Wilson’s breaking ball has been inconsistent and somewhat difficult to define. Pitch data suggests it’s a slider, the lefty considers it more of a curve, and depending on the day, either could be more accurate than the other. Read the rest of this entry »


The Mariners and Going All-In

The Mariners are a decidedly mediocre team. They are 51-52. They have averaged 4.7 runs per game and given up an average of 4.8 runs per game. Their BaseRuns record is actually one game worse than their actual record, but that’s pretty darn close. They are projected to win half of their remaining games. When you include baserunning, their offense is 15th in the majors. Their defense ranks 18th, three runs above average. Their starters rank 23rd in WAR and their relievers 21st.

In other words, nothing about this Mariners team says go for it, yet the team has dipped its toes in that water acquiring bullpen help in the form of David Phelps and a potential bottom-of-the-rotation starter in Marco Gonzales. Despite their mediocrity, there are rumors the Mariners will dive all the way in this season, attempting to acquire Sonny Gray. And, it does make a little sense.

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