Brad Peacock Has Become a Strikeout God

There are two types of stories you might be growing tired of reading. This guy figured out how to hit home runs. Well, there are home runs everywhere. And, this guy figured out how to get more strikeouts. Well, there are also strikeouts everywhere. Home runs. Strikeouts. Home runs. Strikeouts. It can feel sometimes like the game is nothing but home runs and strikeouts. It’s not, but it is more than it’s ever been. I’m sure many of you are craving diversity.

But Brad Peacock is leading all starting pitchers in strikeout rate. Not Chris Sale. Not Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw or Corey Kluber. Brad Peacock. Yeah, I had to lower the innings minimum, because Peacock hasn’t been starting the whole time, but when he was a reliever earlier on, he got a whole bunch of strikeouts, too. Let me show you a table, including 2016 and 2017 contact rates allowed:

Contact Rate Improvements
Pitcher 2016 Contact% 2017 Contact% Change
Brad Peacock 80.8% 66.7% -14.1%
Corey Knebel 80.3% 66.7% -13.6%
George Kontos 77.8% 67.0% -10.8%
Craig Kimbrel 66.4% 56.3% -10.1%
Chris Devenski 72.7% 62.7% -10.0%
Mike Clevinger 78.6% 69.2% -9.4%
Jeff Hoffman 85.0% 75.9% -9.1%
Sean Manaea 77.3% 68.6% -8.7%
Bud Norris 80.1% 71.6% -8.5%
Zack Greinke 78.6% 70.1% -8.5%
Anthony Swarzak 79.6% 71.1% -8.5%
Danny Salazar 76.4% 67.9% -8.5%

Peacock has a long history of pretty average contact rates. Relatedly, he was essentially a replacement-level pitcher. Now a third of all swing attempts are missing. This can’t not be discussed. Strikeouts might be everywhere, sure, but this is the first time Peacock has managed to find them.

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Effectively Wild Episode 1073: The Plus-Plus Podcast

EWFI

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the results of Jeff’s survey about what constitutes a “jam,” Justin Verlander’s comments about the height of baseball seams, and a Mike Chernoff quote about working in baseball, then talk to writer Joe Lemire about his glossary of scouting terminology, the evolution of scouting, and the unbreakable link between baseball and Marriott hotels.

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FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 6/20/17

6:23
Paul Swydan:

What is tonight’s best 7 pm matchup?

CLE (Tomlin) vs. BAL (Tillman) (9.6% | 13 votes)
 
LAA (Bridwell) vs. NYY (Pineda) (8.8% | 12 votes)
 
STL (Leake) vs. PHI (Hellickson) (3.7% | 5 votes)
 
CIN (Garrett) vs. TB (Cobb) (9.6% | 13 votes)
 
WAS (Gonzalez) vs. MIA (Volquez) (40.0% | 54 votes)
 
SF (Moore) vs. ATL (Teheran) (20.0% | 27 votes)
 
PIT (Kuhl) vs. MIL (Davies) (8.1% | 11 votes)
 

Total Votes: 135
6:25
Paul Swydan:

SD (Chacin) vs. CHC (Montgomery)

TOR (Liriano) vs. TEX (Martinez) (0% | 0 votes)
 
CHW (Holland) vs. MIN (Santana) (0% | 0 votes)
 
BOS (Sale) vs. KC (Strahm) (0% | 0 votes)
 
ARI (Greinke) vs. COL (Marquez) (0% | 0 votes)
 
HOU (Martes) vs. OAK (Gray) (0% | 0 votes)
 
DET (Zimmermann) vs. SEA (Miranda) (0% | 0 votes)
 
NYM (Gsellman) vs. LAD (McCarthy) (0% | 0 votes)
 

Total Votes: 0
6:26
Paul Swydan:

What is tonight’s best 8 pm ET or later matchup?

SD (Chacin) vs. CHC (Montgomery) (2.1% | 3 votes)
 
TOR (Liriano) vs. TEX (Martinez) (2.8% | 4 votes)
 
CHW (Holland) vs. MIN (Santana) (1.4% | 2 votes)
 
BOS (Sale) vs. KC (Strahm) (25.8% | 36 votes)
 
ARI (Greinke) vs. COL (Marquez) (32.3% | 45 votes)
 
HOU (Martes) vs. OAK (Gray) (26.6% | 37 votes)
 
DET (Zimmermann) vs. SEA (Miranda) (2.1% | 3 votes)
 
NYM (Gsellman) vs. LAD (McCarthy) (6.4% | 9 votes)
 

Total Votes: 139
6:30
Paul Swydan:

What do you think is the right way to decide who is selected for the All-Star Game?

Players who have had great first 2-2.5 months of current season (41.0% | 60 votes)
 
Players who have been stars for the previous 2-3 seasons, regardless of current season performance? (2.7% | 4 votes)
 
Some combination of the two (52.0% | 76 votes)
 
Other (say in comments) (4.1% | 6 votes)
 

Total Votes: 146
6:31
Paul Swydan:

Now that all the balloting for the All-Star Game is online, do you think fans should be allowed to vote for the starting pitcher?

Yes (55.1% | 80 votes)
 
No (31.0% | 45 votes)
 
Maybe? (13.7% | 20 votes)
 

Total Votes: 145
9:00
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

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Clayton Kershaw Has Developed a Home-Run Problem

Clayton Kershaw got the win against the Mets last night. From one perspective, he was fantastic. He faced 25 batters, and struck 10 of them out, issuing but one single walk. He threw more than two-thirds of his pitches for strikes, and he pitched himself into the seventh inning. The problem was that, of the 14 batters who hit the ball fair, four of them went deep. Kershaw was charged with a season-high six runs allowed, giving him a game ERA of just about 9.

Let it be acknowledged right away: Kershaw’s still amazing. Kershaw’s still an ace. He still has one of the game’s highest strikeout rates, and he still seldom issues any walks. He’s near the top among starters in ERA-, and he’s even closer to the top by xFIP-. Kershaw might be literally the last pitcher on the planet you’d want to catch yourself worrying about. There’s just this one thing I can’t get past: Kershaw has coughed up 17 homers. That is, already, a new career high.

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Anthony Rizzo Clearly Violated the Posey Rule

It’s now been six years since Buster Posey lost most of the season due to a broken leg bone suffered in a home plate collision. Two years later, Major League Baseball adopted Rule 7.13 to deal with collisions at home plate, meaning we are now in the fourth year of the rule designed to prevent serious injuries like the one Posey suffered as well as limit the damaging effects of concussions. There are two parts to the rule, one for catchers and one for runners, and together, collisions at the plate have become pretty non-existent. That’s what makes Monday night’s collision–when Anthony Rizzo barreled down the line into Austin Hedges–notable. It’s now a rarity, but Rizzo’s play was in clear violation of the rule.

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Kenley Jansen is Mariano Rivera 2.0

Kenley Jansen has never been better.

On Sunday, Jansen threw 12 pitches — 12 cutters — and 11 for strikes to close out the Reds during a 1-2-3 ninth. Video evidence of the simplistic, ruthlessly efficient, Jansen Way: Read the rest of this entry »


Let’s Talk About That Weird Sonny Gray Trade Rumor

After the worst year of his career, including spending time on the DL with shoulder issues, Sonny Gray looks healthy again, posting his best fielding-independent numbers since his rookie year. And with the A’s looking like sellers, Gray is expected to get moved in the next month or so. And according to Susan Slusser, it might be sooner than that, with the Astros reportedly the most aggressive buyer at the moment.

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Jed Lowrie Has Become a Sleeper

The last time Athletics infielder Jed Lowrie was playing this well, I had a good talk with him about his injury history. He said part of his good play was due to the fact that he was finally healthy for a good stretch after a string of freak injuries due to collisions. After a three forgettable seasons since, Lowrie is back to where he was back then. And though the story this time is similar — he had two offseason surgeries that are contributing to his good run right now — the differences tell us a lot about what it’s like to be a major leaguer.

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Perhaps the Most Promising Rockies Development

The Rockies presently sit atop the NL West, and they own the best record in the National League. Before the season started, the FanGraphs community identified the Rockies as the team the projections were most underrating, but then, on the other hand, the Rockies also fell victim to a number of early-season health problems. It’s been an outstanding two and a half months, in other words, and the Rockies’ playoff odds have soared to nearly 90%.

Plenty has already gone right, and these being the Rockies, they’ll forever be a source of certain intrigue. There’s no separating the Rockies from the reality that they play in baseball’s weirdest environment, and Travis just wrote on Monday about the Rockies learning to pitch with confidence at Coors Field. The adaptability of the pitching staff has been a major story early on, with so many young successes. But I’d like to quickly highlight something else. It’s something very simple! Here are the Rockies’ year-to-year franchise winning percentages at home:

The present Rockies are at .618, which would stand as their best mark since 2010. Now here’s the same plot, but for road games instead:

The present Rockies are at .658, which would very easily be their highest mark ever. Only once before have the Rockies won even half of their road games — 2009, when they went 41-40. They’re already 25-13. The Rockies have yet to play half of their games, and the samples get even smaller when you split them in two, so I don’t want to jump the gun or anything. But, quietly, a huge development here has been the Rockies playing well outside of Colorado. That’s been a problem of theirs forever.

Over the previous decade, the Rockies won 54% of their home games, ranking them 15th in baseball. Nice and average. Over the same span of time, the Rockies won a hair under 40% of their road games, ranking them 29th in baseball. No other team had a bigger such difference in rank, and no other team had a bigger such difference in winning percentage. The Rockies deal with twin phenomena, which are almost impossible to separate: they get a home-field advantage, and they also get a road-field disadvantage. Theories have abounded. I probably don’t need to go over them all.

Simply, the Rockies have been able to win at home. They’ve needed to do something about the other half of their games. There’s evidence, now, that something has organizationally clicked. It’s also too early to declare that — the Rockies have faced a softer road schedule. Their home opponents have an average winning percentage of .511, while their road opponents have an average winning percentage of .462. That’s a thing. That’s a partial explanation. But it’s not a *complete* explanation. The Rockies are showing a reduced home/road split, and it’s happening by the road numbers getting better, instead of the home numbers getting worse.

I don’t know when we’ll be able to say anything for sure. Park factors always take a while to stabilize, and the Rockies’ schedule will even out. It’s not like the Rockies are suddenly better when they aren’t at Coors Field. That wouldn’t make any sense. But right now, they’re running a hell of a reverse split. They’re literally the last team you’d expect to be doing that. If we’re going to talk about why the Rockies are where they are, this has to be a part of the conversation. It’s something out of the Rockies’ wildest dreams.


What a Baseball Jam Is and Is Not

Much of the time, a jam isn’t confusing. What counts as a jam, and what doesn’t, tends to be obvious. The bases are loaded with nobody out in the ninth inning of a tie game? That’s a jam. There are two outs and nobody on in the fourth inning of a blowout? Not very jammy. A jam is a gut thing, and gut things don’t come with explicit rules, but you often know a jam when you see one.

Last week, I asked you, the FanGraphs community, to define what a jam is. Not exactly that, I guess — more like, I asked you to help come up with a jam definition. I presented you with a dozen different situations, and then thousands of you voted on whether the situation counted as a jam, in your own book. I didn’t know what the results might yield, but I figured it would help us in the in-between. Between the obvious jams and non-jams, there are iffy jams. I wanted to try to identify a cutoff.

Let me acknowledge, again, that jams are gut feelings. They’re situation-dependent in more ways than I could include in a poll, and there are presumably elements of momentum and opposition quality that matter to some extent. This is all basically for fun, and for exploration, and nothing is conclusive. We haven’t arrived at a set definition. But we can at least see where the crowd stands. What’s a jam? What isn’t a jam? I have a better idea now than I used to.

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