Clayton Kershaw Has Developed a Home-Run Problem

Clayton Kershaw got the win against the Mets last night. From one perspective, he was fantastic. He faced 25 batters, and struck 10 of them out, issuing but one single walk. He threw more than two-thirds of his pitches for strikes, and he pitched himself into the seventh inning. The problem was that, of the 14 batters who hit the ball fair, four of them went deep. Kershaw was charged with a season-high six runs allowed, giving him a game ERA of just about 9.

Let it be acknowledged right away: Kershaw’s still amazing. Kershaw’s still an ace. He still has one of the game’s highest strikeout rates, and he still seldom issues any walks. He’s near the top among starters in ERA-, and he’s even closer to the top by xFIP-. Kershaw might be literally the last pitcher on the planet you’d want to catch yourself worrying about. There’s just this one thing I can’t get past: Kershaw has coughed up 17 homers. That is, already, a new career high.

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Anthony Rizzo Clearly Violated the Posey Rule

It’s now been six years since Buster Posey lost most of the season due to a broken leg bone suffered in a home plate collision. Two years later, Major League Baseball adopted Rule 7.13 to deal with collisions at home plate, meaning we are now in the fourth year of the rule designed to prevent serious injuries like the one Posey suffered as well as limit the damaging effects of concussions. There are two parts to the rule, one for catchers and one for runners, and together, collisions at the plate have become pretty non-existent. That’s what makes Monday night’s collision–when Anthony Rizzo barreled down the line into Austin Hedges–notable. It’s now a rarity, but Rizzo’s play was in clear violation of the rule.

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Kenley Jansen is Mariano Rivera 2.0

Kenley Jansen has never been better.

On Sunday, Jansen threw 12 pitches — 12 cutters — and 11 for strikes to close out the Reds during a 1-2-3 ninth. Video evidence of the simplistic, ruthlessly efficient, Jansen Way: Read the rest of this entry »


Let’s Talk About That Weird Sonny Gray Trade Rumor

After the worst year of his career, including spending time on the DL with shoulder issues, Sonny Gray looks healthy again, posting his best fielding-independent numbers since his rookie year. And with the A’s looking like sellers, Gray is expected to get moved in the next month or so. And according to Susan Slusser, it might be sooner than that, with the Astros reportedly the most aggressive buyer at the moment.

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Jed Lowrie Has Become a Sleeper

The last time Athletics infielder Jed Lowrie was playing this well, I had a good talk with him about his injury history. He said part of his good play was due to the fact that he was finally healthy for a good stretch after a string of freak injuries due to collisions. After a three forgettable seasons since, Lowrie is back to where he was back then. And though the story this time is similar — he had two offseason surgeries that are contributing to his good run right now — the differences tell us a lot about what it’s like to be a major leaguer.

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Perhaps the Most Promising Rockies Development

The Rockies presently sit atop the NL West, and they own the best record in the National League. Before the season started, the FanGraphs community identified the Rockies as the team the projections were most underrating, but then, on the other hand, the Rockies also fell victim to a number of early-season health problems. It’s been an outstanding two and a half months, in other words, and the Rockies’ playoff odds have soared to nearly 90%.

Plenty has already gone right, and these being the Rockies, they’ll forever be a source of certain intrigue. There’s no separating the Rockies from the reality that they play in baseball’s weirdest environment, and Travis just wrote on Monday about the Rockies learning to pitch with confidence at Coors Field. The adaptability of the pitching staff has been a major story early on, with so many young successes. But I’d like to quickly highlight something else. It’s something very simple! Here are the Rockies’ year-to-year franchise winning percentages at home:

The present Rockies are at .618, which would stand as their best mark since 2010. Now here’s the same plot, but for road games instead:

The present Rockies are at .658, which would very easily be their highest mark ever. Only once before have the Rockies won even half of their road games — 2009, when they went 41-40. They’re already 25-13. The Rockies have yet to play half of their games, and the samples get even smaller when you split them in two, so I don’t want to jump the gun or anything. But, quietly, a huge development here has been the Rockies playing well outside of Colorado. That’s been a problem of theirs forever.

Over the previous decade, the Rockies won 54% of their home games, ranking them 15th in baseball. Nice and average. Over the same span of time, the Rockies won a hair under 40% of their road games, ranking them 29th in baseball. No other team had a bigger such difference in rank, and no other team had a bigger such difference in winning percentage. The Rockies deal with twin phenomena, which are almost impossible to separate: they get a home-field advantage, and they also get a road-field disadvantage. Theories have abounded. I probably don’t need to go over them all.

Simply, the Rockies have been able to win at home. They’ve needed to do something about the other half of their games. There’s evidence, now, that something has organizationally clicked. It’s also too early to declare that — the Rockies have faced a softer road schedule. Their home opponents have an average winning percentage of .511, while their road opponents have an average winning percentage of .462. That’s a thing. That’s a partial explanation. But it’s not a *complete* explanation. The Rockies are showing a reduced home/road split, and it’s happening by the road numbers getting better, instead of the home numbers getting worse.

I don’t know when we’ll be able to say anything for sure. Park factors always take a while to stabilize, and the Rockies’ schedule will even out. It’s not like the Rockies are suddenly better when they aren’t at Coors Field. That wouldn’t make any sense. But right now, they’re running a hell of a reverse split. They’re literally the last team you’d expect to be doing that. If we’re going to talk about why the Rockies are where they are, this has to be a part of the conversation. It’s something out of the Rockies’ wildest dreams.


What a Baseball Jam Is and Is Not

Much of the time, a jam isn’t confusing. What counts as a jam, and what doesn’t, tends to be obvious. The bases are loaded with nobody out in the ninth inning of a tie game? That’s a jam. There are two outs and nobody on in the fourth inning of a blowout? Not very jammy. A jam is a gut thing, and gut things don’t come with explicit rules, but you often know a jam when you see one.

Last week, I asked you, the FanGraphs community, to define what a jam is. Not exactly that, I guess — more like, I asked you to help come up with a jam definition. I presented you with a dozen different situations, and then thousands of you voted on whether the situation counted as a jam, in your own book. I didn’t know what the results might yield, but I figured it would help us in the in-between. Between the obvious jams and non-jams, there are iffy jams. I wanted to try to identify a cutoff.

Let me acknowledge, again, that jams are gut feelings. They’re situation-dependent in more ways than I could include in a poll, and there are presumably elements of momentum and opposition quality that matter to some extent. This is all basically for fun, and for exploration, and nothing is conclusive. We haven’t arrived at a set definition. But we can at least see where the crowd stands. What’s a jam? What isn’t a jam? I have a better idea now than I used to.

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The Night Nolan Arenado Made History

Some say it’s all been done before. That’s perhaps mostly true, but as something only mostly true, all of it has not actually been done before. This is especially true if you are willing to include qualifiers. Take this example: Before last weekend, no player had ever completed a cycle with a walk-off homer when the team was trailing at the time of the blast, per Baseball-Reference’s Play Index. Nolan Arenado has now eliminated that previous distinction.

Cycles are fairly rare, occurring 255 times, per Baseball-Reference, roughly once every 700 games, and this decade has been in line with that average. Since the beginning of last season, there have been 99 walkoff wins that ended in a homer, about one in 35 games. Of those 99 walkoffs, just 19 were come from behind homers, and only 13 came in the ninth, roughly one in 266 games. Put those two together, and we have about a one in 750,000 chance of both happening in a game. Given we’ve had about one quarter of that many games played over the last 100 years, it seems reasonable we’ve waited this long.

There have been a few other similar games over the years if you relax some of the requirements. There were only nine games in the Baseball-Reference Play Index where a player hit for the cycle and had the game winning hit in a walkoff. Many might have seen that the last player to hit a walkoff homer to complete a cycle was Carlos Gonzalez in 2010. He hit his shot to break a 5-5 tie against the Cubs. Hopefully the seven year difference between occurrences adds to the perceived rarity as opposed to making it seem commonplace. Read the rest of this entry »


What Might Chris Taylor Have Become?

On this date a year ago, the Dodgers traded pitcher Zach Lee for non-pitcher Chris Taylor. Since then, Lee has been claimed off waivers, and he’s thrown eight big-league innings, with eight walks. Taylor, meanwhile, didn’t impress in the majors in 2016, but he made some offseason changes and currently ranks third among Dodgers position players in 2017 WAR, behind only Justin Turner and Corey Seager. Cody Bellinger has been very good, yes? He’s at 1.8 WAR, with a 144 wRC+. Taylor’s at 1.9 WAR, with a 140 wRC+. He’s appeared at second base, shortstop, third base, left field, and center field.

I’m not here to give Taylor an exhaustive look. I’m not going to do any video breakdowns. This is pure statistics. Let’s begin with a table featuring one statistic. For every hitter who’s batted at least 150 times this season, I calculated the difference between their in-zone swing rates and their out-of-zone swing rates. There have been more than 250 such hitters. A leaderboard:

Most Disciplined Swingers, 2017
Player O-Swing% Z-Swing% Z – O%
Chris Taylor 19.3% 69.9% 50.6%
Freddie Freeman 30.5% 80.1% 49.6%
Joey Votto 20.6% 69.8% 49.2%
George Springer 23.4% 70.8% 47.4%
Andrew McCutchen 19.3% 66.6% 47.3%
Miguel Sano 25.6% 72.9% 47.3%
John Jaso 22.0% 68.1% 46.1%
Jorge Bonifacio 33.7% 79.3% 45.6%
Chris Carter 25.8% 71.4% 45.6%
Kris Bryant 26.4% 71.5% 45.1%

That’s Chris Taylor in first place. That’s Chris Taylor in first place in a table that also has Joey Votto in it. Taylor, to this point, has been making many of the right swing decisions, being aggressive within the zone while laying off garbage outside of it. That’s not everything about being a good hitter, but you couldn’t ask for a better foundation. Taylor has made himself difficult to pitch to.

Now to expand. This is going to be another somewhat experimental table, a form of analysis I’ve done a few times before. I just finished writing an article for ESPN, in which I performed this same analysis for Cody Bellinger. I identified, for hitters, four core traits — discipline, contact, exit velocity, and launch angle. I gathered data for every hitter going back to 2015, when Statcast was introduced, and I looked for the closest comps to 2017 Chris Taylor. There were no extremely close comps. But among the comps that were there, one comp was far stronger, far closer than the others. The name and the stats:

A Chris Taylor Comp
Player Z – O-Swing% Contact% Exit Velo Launch Angle wRC+
2017 Chris Taylor 50.6% 76.5% 88.9 8.1 140
2015-2017 George Springer 47.2% 72.8% 89.4 8.3 130
SOURCE: Baseball Savant

For the new Chris Taylor, at the plate, easily the closest comp has been recent George Springer. They’re close up there in all four categories, and while Springer has shown the slightly better peak strength, Taylor has made more consistent contact. So, when you wonder how Taylor’s wRC+ might regress, you might decide to be strongly anchored to Springer’s 130. Perhaps that’s still too high, I don’t know, but Taylor has been showing legitimate offensive skills, and his defensive versatility is an obvious plus. Pitchers will have time to try to figure this out, but Taylor hasn’t given an inch.

Without question, Bellinger has come in handy for the Dodgers at just the right time. But Taylor, too, has been crucial to the Dodgers’ early success, and this is just another testament to the organization’s depth. Taylor always seemed like someone who could play a little bit. Now he’s resembling a critical component of the Astros’ organizational core.

Update: And, to pile on, earlier today, the Padres designated Zach Lee for assignment.


Gleyber Torres Needs Tommy John Surgery

A lot of things have gone right for the Yankees this year. This is not one of those things.

The Yankees top prospect was running a 144 wRC+ as a 20-year-old in Triple-A, and was being groomed to replace Chase Headley as the team’s third baseman (who has an 86 wRc+) in the not-too-distant future. He also would have provided depth at the middle infield spots, and given the team another dynamic young player for the stretch run.

The UCL isn’t as important for hitters as it is for pitchers, but even while this injury is to his non-throwing arm, this will still knock Torres out for the remainder of the 2017 season. The Yankees press release notes that he’s expected to be ready for the start of spring training next year.

With Torres out of the picture, the Yankees are probably going to have to turn to the trade market now if they want to upgrade over Headley for the second half. Which is particularly interesting, because the Red Sox might also be looking for a third baseman over the next six weeks, and with J.J. Hardy on the shelf, it’s possible the Orioles could look for a 3B, with Manny Machado shifting over to shortstop. That would leave three A.L. East teams potentially trying to outbid each other for the same crop of mediocre veteran options.

Regardless of what the Yankees do at third base, this is bad news for Torres, who was on the verge of being a big leaguer. Hopefully he recovers in full and this doesn’t have a detrimental effect on his career, which still looks quite promising.