While writing about Miguel Sano last week, I connected two thoughts that had laid dormant next to each other for a while.

Those thoughts, as follows:

1. It’s easier to lift and drive balls that appear in certain parts of the zone; and
2. How pitchers approach batters in terms of location is part of an endless loop of adjustments that makes judging a batter’s true talent difficult.

That confluence of ideas led to an innocuous enough question: could we adjust exit velocity for pitch location?

The answer is yes, of course we can. The next question, however, was much more interesting: what the heck does this measure?

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History was made on August 4. Technically, history was made again on August 13, and it was made again last night. It could be made again today, and it could be made further in any and every game hence. This is new history — expanding and developing history. It’s history without any limit. God only knows where the tally will stop. There is ever so much baseball to play.

Yet the moment of greatest significance occurred on August 4. Nearly two weeks ago, the Angels played a game against the A’s, with Troy Scribner starting opposite Jharel Cotton. It was a game I doubt that you watched, and it was an 8.5-inning game that somehow lasted more than three and a half hours. As the Angels batted in the bottom of the first, Mike Trout came up with one down and picked up an infield single on a grounder to short. That brought to the plate Albert Pujols, and Cotton gave Pujols a first pitch that he liked. Pujols saw the pitch, and he swung at it. His swing still basically looks the same as it ever has. Pujols swung, and he even made contact. Another grounder to short. The result of this one was different.

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The Astros’ best player this year has been Jose Altuve, and it isn’t particularly close. The second baseman is one of the leading candidates for the American League’s Most Valuable Player award. After Altuve, the best players on the team are probably George Springer and Carlos Correa, though Springer spent some time on the disabled list recently and Correa remains there now. After that group, there’s Marwin Gonzalez, who’s hitting out of his mind, and a collection of other adequate players on the position-player side.

As a team, the Astros have an MLB-leading 127 wRC+, miles ahead of the second-place Dodgers, who sit 16 points back. With Altuve, Correa, and Springer leading the way, the Astros offense has been great all year. A slow start moved Alex Bregman from the all-important second spot in the lineup down to the eighth spot for much of the season. Over the past two months, however — in somewhat quiet fashion– he’s become one of Houston’s most important players.

It’s possible that Bregman’s profile doesn’t lend itself to stardom the same way some of his teammates’ profiles do. His relative lack of notoriety, however, might just be a result of the way he entered the majors.

Consider the following players:

Player A was taken with the second-overall pick in the draft out of college and, less than a year later, was destroying Double-A pitching. He was a top-20 prospect and, by midseason, had become the top prospect in the game according to Keith Law. At that point, he was promoted to Triple-A, where spent the rest of the season performing extremely well. He entered the following season as baseball’s top prospect and subsequently won Rookie of the Year.

Player B was taken with the second-overall pick in the draft out of college and, less than a year later, was destroying Double-A pitching. He entered the season as a top-20-ish prospect (No. 42 was on the low end) and, by midseason, had become the top prospect in the game according to Keith Law. At that point, he was promoted to Triple-A and crushed it, but only stayed there briefly before getting promoted to the big leagues and holding his own. He then lost his prospect eligibility, any Rookie of the Year buzz, and got off to a slow start.

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Below are the updated summer top-10 prospect lists for the orgs in the National League West. I have notes beneath the top 10s explaining why some of these prospects have moved up or down. For detailed scouting information on individual players, check out the player’s profile page which may include tool grades and/or links to Daily Prospect Notes posts in which they’ve appeared this season. For detailed info on players drafted or signed this year, check out our sortable boards.

Arizona Diamondbacks (Preseason List)

1. Anthony Banda, LHP
2. Jazz Chisholm, SS
3. Jon Duplantier, RHP
4. Pavin Smith, 1B
5. Marcus Wilson, OF
6. Taylor Clarke, RHP
7. Socrates Brito, OF
8. Domingo Leyba. INF
9. Kristian Robinson, OF
10. Drew Ellis, 1B/3B

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In the previous installment of this series, Lars Anderson told us about his friend Gary Malec — the founder of Birdman Bats — visiting him in Japan. It was there that Malec met, and was befriended by, Anderson’s Kochi Fighting Dogs teammate Manny Ramirez. The installment ended with mention of the “Gary-Manny bromance,” and we’ll continue the story here in Part 5.

———

Lars Anderson: “We embarked in the now Manny-filled Manny Van on a road trip to play the Tokushima Indigo Socks in Tokushima Prefecture. Zak was in the front, with Gary and Manny sitting side by side in the middle row’s captain’s chairs. I was sprawled across the back. Aside from the bizarre and wonderful conversation, the drive itself was harrowing. It was raining for the first time in weeks, and our driver was flying. I said to Zak, ‘Hey, can we get this guy to slow down a bit?’ Zak said, ‘What do you mean slow down? He’s only going 150 KPH.’ I responded, ‘Yeah, man, that’s like 93 mph.’ ‘Oh,’ said Zak.

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The notion that Aaron Judge would have to eventually make an adjustment this season isn’t all that surprising. What comes with being the largest, most physically intimidating player in the game is also the largest strike zone, the largest area within which pitchers and opposing game-planners can work.

And the counter-offensive to Judge’s remarkable first half has perhaps begun. Even after his home run Monday, Judge had recorded just a .170/.339/.360 slash line in the second half entering play on Tuesday.

Consider some facts regarding Judge and the fastball.

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Below are the updated summer top-10 prospect lists for the orgs in the American League West. I have notes beneath the top 10s explaining why some of these prospects have moved up or down. For detailed scouting information on individual players, check out the player’s profile page which may include tool grades and/or links to Daily Prospect Notes posts in which they’ve appeared this season. For detailed info on players drafted or signed this year, check out our sortable boards.

Houston Astros (Preseason List)

1. Kyle Tucker, OF
2. Forrest Whitley, RHP
3. Franklin Perez, RHP
4. Yordan Alvarez, 1B
5. Derek Fisher, OF
6. J.B. Bukauskas, RHP
7. Gilberto Celestino
8. Daz Cameron
9. Cionel Perez, LHP
10. Colin Moran, 3B

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Last week in this space, we took a look at some shortstops predominantly known for their gloves who’ve taken some real (and not so real) steps forward with the bat. (Zack Cozart was not included; he deserves his own article soon.) This time, let’s flip the script and assess the light offensive production of some shortstops known for their bats not all that long ago.

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