At this time last year, Luis Severino had just finished up his second minor-league start of the season. It was only his second minor-league start of the season because he had started the season in the majors. But seven starts were all Yankees manager Joe Girardi needed to see before he and the Yankees organization sent Severino packing, first for a start at High-A and then to Triple-A. On June 3, 2016, he allowed three runs in 3.2 innings for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Yesterday, a year and a day later, he allowed two runs in seven innings against the Blue Jays. A year after his demotion, Severino is one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Let’s start with his demotion. In his first seven starts last season, Severino threw 35 innings. He allowed 30 runs, 29 earned, for a 7.46 ERA. Yuck. His 5.52 FIP also was unsightly, but showed that his 27 strikeouts against 10 walks painted a somewhat brighter picture. But then there was his 3.98 xFIP, a more or less league average mark. The discrepancy is the result of the eight homers allowed by the Dominican Republic native — six in Yankee Stadium, and two in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. That’s quite a bit for 35 innings pitched. It works out to a 2.09 every nine innings, a mark that has only been achieved twice by qualified pitchers in major-league history — Sid Fernandez in 1994 (2.11) and Jose Lima in 2000 (2.20). So, it stood to reason that Severino wouldn’t keep allowing homers at such a high rate. Or, you could make the argument that only two pitchers had allowed homers at such a rate because usually, when a pitcher is doing that, he’s unlikely to compile enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Because he’d probably get sent to the minors. Which Severino did.
Severino would work diligently in the minors. After the aforementioned June 3 outing, he would make nine starts. In eight of them, he allowed three runs or less. In the final of those nine starts, he struck out 11 in six innings and got himself a ticket back to the Show. He would make two starts, one in Boston and one versus Tampa, and the results were a carbon copy of his previous major-league work: eight innings pitched, 15 hits allowed, 12 runs allowed, 10 strikeouts, one walk, two homers. He was doing his job in terms of walks and strikeouts, but too many batted balls were finding green pasture or outfield bleacher. At this point, Girardi could be forgiven for not sticking with Severino. And he didn’t. Severino went right back to the minors and didn’t come back up until rosters expanded. When he did, he was a reliever, until the end of the season, when he made a couple of nondescript, short starts.
For the 2016 season as a whole, Severino made only 11 starts. He only reached the six-inning mark in three of them, and only one of those three cleared the bar for a quality start. Fast forward to this season, and Severino has already reached the 11-start threshold. He’s gone at least six innings in seven of them, and all seven have been of the quality-start variety. That is underselling the difference in his seasons.
Last season, Severino finished with a 102 FIP- and 0.6 WAR. This year, he’s posted a 71 FIP- and 1.7 WAR. Last year, of the 273 pitchers who pitched at least 60 innings, Severino’s 0.6 WAR ranked 186th. This year, his 1.7 WAR ranks 12th, and seventh in the American League. That’s pretty good, if you weren’t aware.
Luis Severino has widened the velocity differentials on both his changeup and slider. (Photo: Arturo Pardavila III)
So, how did we get here? Well, various ways. A little here, a little there. One thing that’s interesting is that Severino’s success isn’t a product of him having suddenly learned how to stop fly balls from becoming home runs. For the entire 2016 season, Severino’s home run rate on fly balls (HR/FB) was 16.4%; this season it’s 16.3%, which is, you know, the same. It’s 27th highest among qualified starters. And yet, he has improved significantly, which is impressive.
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