KATOH’s Most-Improved Hitting Prospects So Far

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May 16, 2017

A couple of weeks ago, I looked at the 10 hitting prospects who had most improved their KATOH+ projections over the season’s first few weeks. Now that we have a more meaningful sample of games to analyze and a new Baseball America top-100 list baked in, I’m repeating that exercise. It’s still early in the season, but not too early to start identifying players who are performing better than they have in the past. A reminder: a player’s KATOH forecast denotes his projected WAR total over the first six seasons of his major-league career.

Juan Soto, OF, Washington (Profile)

Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 4.0
Current KATOH+ Projection: 11.2

Soto topped this list two weeks ago and has only built on that performance since, though he’s sidelined with an ankle injury for now. His line now sits at .360/.427/.523. Baseball America also recognized Soto’s excellence by ranking him No. 59 on their updated top-100, which also nudges up his projection. Soto possesses a rare combination of power and contact skills and is very young for his level.

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Let’s Pick a Side: Altherr or Schwarber?

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May 16, 2017

You probably don’t need much of an introduction to Kyle Schwarber. His story has been told numerous times, and he gained legendary status through his late-season return from ACL surgery, hitting .412 in the World Series to help the Cubs end their 108-year World Series drought. Schwarber is probably one of the most well known young players in baseball.

Depending on how frequently you read FanGraphs, you may be aware of Aaron Altherr. Jeff wrote about him in March when he was having a strong spring, trying to earn more time than his slotted 4th outfielder job on the Phillies would give him, and I wrote about his breakout performance last week. But while Altherr has gotten some notice for his strong performance the last few weeks, he’s still a relatively obscure young outfielder.

But despite their significantly different levels of recognition, they may be more similar than their reputations would suggest. So today, I wanted to do something of a thought experiment, and gauge how our readership sees the pair, as of May 16th, 2017.

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 5/15

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May 16, 2017
1:31
Eric A Longenhagen: Morning. Link:
1:31
Eric A Longenhagen: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-516/
1:31
Eric A Longenhagen: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-516/
1:31
Eric A Longenhagen: And chat…
1:31
Buck: Small sample size for sure. But is there anything I can take from Acuna’s hot start in Double A?
1:32
Eric A Longenhagen: No, especially not since last week’s chat was made up of an overwhelming number of back seat Player Dev coordinators criticizing his promotion.

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Hunter Renfroe on Producing on Both Sides of the Coin

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May 16, 2017

Hunter Renfroe had a huge game last night. The Padres outfielder hammered a two-run double in the second inning and followed with a two-run homer in the 10th. The latter was a walk-off, giving San Diego a 6-5 win over the Milwaukee Brewers. The blast was his seventh on the season, tying him with Josh Bell and Cody Bellinger for the lead among NL rookies.

Renfroe’s overall numbers aren’t great — his slash line is .217/.273/.406 — but he’s showing signs of breaking out. Over his last six games, the 25-year-old former first-round pick is 6-for-18, and four of those safeties have gone for extra bases. Every bit as notable is the fact that he’s drawn seven free passes. Selectivity has never been a strong suit for the slugger, but given his ability to propel baseballs long distances, a more-discerning eye could very well be his ticket to stardom.

There’s no questioning his raw power. The Mississippi State product left the yard 30 times last year for Triple-A El Paso while capturing Pacific Coast League MVP honors. He added four more dingers after a late-September call-up. Six of the 11 home runs Renfroe has hit in a big-league uniform have traveled over 400 feet.

Renfroe discussed his power-laden gap-to-gap approach, and his views on launch-angle data, prior to the start of the regular season.

———

Renfroe on launch-angle data: “I’m obviously aware of it, but the ball is moving. It’s not sitting on a tee, so you can’t stand in the box and think about things like launch angle when the ball is coming at you 98 mph. You hit it, and whatever it does… you know? Hopefully you hit it on the barrel at a good angle, and it makes it over the fence, or at least goes for a double, or even a single.

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A More Selective Miguel Sano Is Crushing It

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May 16, 2017

CLEVELAND – Miguel Sano knows what he wants.

In the visiting team quarters in Progressive Field, there’s a small kitchen — like something you might find in a World War II-era submarine — that offers players various pre- and post-game sustenance. On Sunday morning, Sano, apparently unsatisfied with the options, disappeared from the clubhouse and reappeared with rectangular aluminum carry-out pan containing mangú, a Dominican breakfast dish of mashed plantains topped with a type of thinly sliced sausage. He said he had procured it from a local restaurant. The 6-foot-4, 260-pound Sano is known as a popular teammate and this catering feat was a prime example. As he appeared with breakfast, several of his teammates, also of Dominican origin, huddled around a card table in the center of the clubhouse for a Sunday morning feast.

Sano is selective at the plate, too.

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Yasiel Puig’s on a High-Fastball Diet

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May 16, 2017

Imagine the average Yasiel Puig plate appearance. What does it look like to you? One thing it might look like is Puig flailing at a bunch of low-away sliders. Now, I don’t actually know what’s in your head. I don’t know how you think about Puig. But just in case you think he is extremely vulnerable to breaking stuff, do I have news for you!

I have prepared two plots, showing the entirety of Puig’s major-league career. Here is a rolling-average plot of Puig’s rate of fastballs seen:

Great! He’s gone through some low-fastball phases before. Now he’s higher than ever. I should tell you that, for context, baseball-wide fastball rates are going *down*. So, the average hitter is seeing fewer fastballs than ever before. Puig is seeing more fastballs than ever before. All right, that’s part of it. Time to fold in run values. Here’s the same idea, where I’ve just summed up Puig’s fastball run values above or below average over rolling 30-game stretches.

It shouldn’t surprise you to see how cyclical things are. Underneath, that’s how baseball tends to work — something gets the job done until it doesn’t, at which point adjustments are made, and then more adjustments are made, and on and on. Puig has gone through troughs, followed by peaks, but Puig has been at another low. How low? So far, there are 208 hitters this season who have batted at least 100 times. Puig owns baseball’s highest fastball rate, at 68%. Last year, he was at 60%. And while this has been going on, Puig is sitting on baseball’s third-worst fastball run value, at -8.9 runs. Only Dansby Swanson and Alcides Escobar have been worse. Pitch-type run values, of course, are prone to noise in either direction, but both these factors are fairly convincing together. Puig’s seeing more fastballs because he’s doing less to them.

Here are Puig’s fastball run values by season, expressed as runs above or below average per 100 fastballs:

  • 2013: +1.7 runs per 100 fastballs
  • 2014: +1.4
  • 2015: +1.0
  • 2016: -0.5
  • 2017: -2.4

So far this season, Puig has been pretty good against both sliders and changeups. It’s almost as if he’s focused too hard on addressing a weakness, such that now he’s just behind faster pitches. It’s something to work on, and with Puig, it’s just another adjustment to attempt. There’s always something, but I guess you could say that’s true for anybody.

It could be misstating things to assert that Puig’s on a high-fastball diet. Pitchers, certainly, are giving him a steady diet of fastballs. Yet relatively few of them are being consumed. So, the headline could probably stand to be fixed. Give me a few seconds to get on that.


Daily Prospect Notes: 5/16

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May 16, 2017

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Chuckie Robinson, C, Houston (Profile)
Level: Low-A   Age: 22   Org Rank: HM   Top 100: NR
Line: 1-for-2, HR, 2 BB

Notes
A 21st rounder out of Southern Miss, Robinson has big pull power and takes full-effort, uppercut swings. He’s homered in two consecutive games (his first two of the season) and is now up to .282/.346/.479 on the year. He’s significantly improved his conditioning since high school and improved his defensive mobility, though he’s still listed at 5-foot-11, 225 pounds. Robinson is now a passable receiver with above-average pure arm strength that plays down on throws to second base because he’s still a bit slow to exit his crouch. Some are apprehensive about the sustainability of Robinson’s Bunyanesque approach to hitting, but he’s got louder tools and a better chance to reach the majors than the typical 21st-round pick. He profiles as a third catcher.

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NERD Game Scores for May 16, 2017

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May 16, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are almost certainly justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Tampa Bay at Cleveland | 18:10 ET
Odorizzi (31.0 IP, 98 xFIP-) vs. Salazar (36.1 IP, 79 xFIP-)
Boston’s Chris Sale has recorded the top WAR among major-league pitchers by nearly a full win so far this year. Unfortunately, he isn’t pitching tonight. Who is pitching is Danny Salazar. Salazar hasn’t recorded the best or second-best or even fifth-best WAR among major-league pitchers. What he has done, though, is produce a better swinging-strike rate than both (a) Boston’s Chris Sale and also (b) all 95 other qualified pitchers. His changeup is mostly the reason. Salazar has registered a swing and miss on more than a quarter of the changeups he’s thrown this year.

Here are three examples of that changeup from Salazar’s most recent start:

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland or Tampa Bay Radio.

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The Essence of the Brewers in One Handy Table

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May 16, 2017

Let’s do some quick review! One stat we have on our pages shows up as IFFB%. This measures the rate of infield pop-ups per fly ball hit. You know this measure — this is the one where Joey Votto is a freak.

Another stat we have on our pages shows up as HR/FB. This measures the rate of home runs per fly ball hit. You also know this measure — this is the one where Aaron Judge is a freak. (And, seemingly, everybody else.)

Both of these numbers make sense to look at for individuals, and for teams. Let’s think about teams. In fact, let’s think about one specific team, that being the Milwaukee Brewers. This season, the Brewers have hit pop-ups on 6.2% of their fly balls. That’s the lowest rate for any team. Also, this season, the Brewers have hit home runs on 20.6% of their fly balls. That’s the highest rate for any team. The Brewers currently rank as the best by each measure. That means they rank No. 1.

We have this batted-ball data going back to 2002, which gives us 15 full individual seasons, and one partial one. Combining everything, here is a table of the 10 best offensive teams by average rank in these two stats.

Infield Flies and Homers, 2002 – 2017
Team Season IFFB% MLB Rank HR/FB% MLB Rank Avg. Rank
Brewers 2017 6.2% 1 20.6% 1 1.0
Yankees 2004 9.7% 2 14.5% 1 1.5
Yankees 2002 10.2% 3 14.1% 1 2.0
Yankees 2007 7.7% 2 12.0% 2 2.0
Rangers 2011 8.2% 2 12.8% 2 2.0
Rangers 2009 8.1% 3 12.9% 2 2.5
Brewers 2016 8.1% 4 15.6% 1 2.5
Indians 2005 9.7% 2 13.0% 4 3.0
Nationals 2017 7.0% 3 15.6% 3 3.0
Yankees 2003 10.3% 6 14.4% 1 3.5

In short, the Brewers are trying to be the first team in a decade and a half or so to be better than anyone else in terms of pop-ups and homers. The 2004 Yankees came tantalizingly close to dual No. 1s, but they were narrowly edged out in pop-ups by the Tigers. I’m sure the Yankees didn’t mind, and it’s not like this is the end goal of the whole Brewers organization, but this is, overall, a positive reflection of the lineup through to this point. Although they’ve swung and missed, this is how you make the most of fly balls.

As it happens, these Brewers are actually tied with the 2015 Giants for what would be the lowest pop-up rate in the whole window. And no team has previously reached even 17% home runs per fly ball; the Brewers are close to 21%. So, technically, they rank No. 1 in each category this season, and they also rank No. 1 in each category over all 15+ seasons. This is a remarkable partial achievement!

In closing, this year’s team with the worst average rank is the Red Sox, who are 27th by pop-ups and 29th by homers. No team has ever finished last in both categories. The closest was the 2014 Royals, who were worst in homers and second-worst in pop-ups. The 2014 Royals lost the World Series in seven games. Don’t accuse me of overselling.


The Greater Significance of Bronson Arroyo’s Leg Kick

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May 16, 2017

I’ve always loved Bronson Arroyo’s leg kick. There’s some whimsy in it, is maybe why. At the very least, it represents a different mechanical approach than one finds elsewhere in the league.

Turns out, there are reasons against flinging the lead leg out into space like Arroyo does — and yet, his reasons for doing it make some sort of sense, as well. And in between the two, there’s even something about the future of baseball in that kick. It’s a kick that contains multitudes.

First, let’s revel in its glory — in this case, from the hitter’s view. Is it… majestic?

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