Statcast and the Future of WAR

Over the weekend, I had the fortune of attending the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, and participating on the baseball panel with Mike Petriello, Harry Pavlidis, Patrick Young, and Brian Kenny, which was a lot of fun. While the baseball panel was my only actual obligation at the conference, Petriello was doing double duty, having just presented — along with Greg Cain, one of the lead engineers at MLBAM — the latest update to Statcast, and introducing two new public metrics for 2017, Catch Probability and Hit Probability. These are the kinds of numbers people have been hoping for, and are one of the first steps in moving from collecting interesting single data points into providing more valuable calculations based on the combination of factors the system is measuring.

To help promote the new metrics, Jeff Passan wrote a piece on Statcast over at Yahoo, focusing mostly on what Statcast could do in the future.

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Gary Sanchez and the Persistent Belief in Small Samples

Perhaps no player in Florida is the object of greater expectations this spring than Gary Sanchez.

Consider: in the fantasy baseball world, only Buster Posey is being drafted earlier at catcher. Generally conservative projection systems forecast that Sanchez will be a star this season. ZiPS pegs Sanchez for 27 homers a 112 wRC+ and a 3.4 WAR season. PECOTA’s 70th percentile outlook has Sanchez recording 33 homers, a .504 slugging mark, and 4.8 wins. And the Fans’ average crowdsourced projection for Sanchez is a .274/.344/.488 slash line and 5.4 WAR season. The Fans believe, in other words, that Sanchez and Bryce Harper are going to produce similar value this season.

Last week, ESPN ran a poll asking respondents to guess how many home runs Sanchez will hit in 2017. Fewer than 10 home runs? That option received 1% of votes. How about 10 to 20 homers — i.e. the range within which he’s resided over each of his first five professional seasons in the minors? That seems like a reasonable wager, right? Only 4% agreed.

The most popular range was 21-30 homers, receiving 44% of votes. Forty-one percent predicted he will slug between 31-40 homers, and 10% think he will hit more than 40.

There’s much to like about Sanchez. This is a player with pedigree, who was regraded as the top catcher in the 2009 international class, and perhaps the second-best bat in that class after Miguel Sano.

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Did David Price’s Cutter Tell Us Something Was Coming?

The news is in. As Rob Bradford reported late last week, Boston lefty David Price will only miss seven to ten days with an elbow strain and won’t require surgery for the moment. That’s fortunate for the Red Sox, as the loss of Price would immediately have tested the club’s somewhat suspect depth.

Before news of Price’s injury surfaced, I was looking at his 2016 campaign to see what was amiss. It looks like the cutter was a big part of the problem. Given what happened on that pitch, and the information we now possess about Price’s elbow, it’s possible we can understand Price’s 2016 season much better.

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Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

12:04
Travis Sawchik: Welcome to what I believe is the first FG chat being headquartered at the Joker Marchant Stadium press box in Lakeland, Fla.

12:05
Travis Sawchik: Let’s chat …

12:05
Guest: Anti-WBC people are nuts. It’s baseball plus national pride, fans going nuts and players you rarely see. What am I missing?

12:06
Travis Sawchik: I’m not anti-WBC … but with its being held in March, without some of the world’s best players, and with limits on pitch counts and other issues it’s not able to reach its potential. WBC needs a new home on the calendar among other things, I feel

12:06
Bob: Torres, Swanson, Rasario, Crawford…. Who would you take at SS for the future?

12:07
Travis Sawchik: Swanson but it’s such a great group of SS prospects. Golden Era of shortstop play, for sure

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The New Brazilian Flamethrower

This is Kate Preusser’s first piece as part of her month-long residency.

In Molloy, Samuel Beckett tells us: “There is a little of everything, apparently, in nature, and freaks are common.”

Thyago Vieira is a freak. I mean this in the nicest, but also the meanest, way. The Mariners prospect and Brazilian native has been turning heads across the league after blazing through the California League and the AFL this past year, victimizing hitters with his triple-digit fastball and newfound slider and just generally looking like a Brazilian golem looming atop the mound with his cold stare and imposing stature. And that’s before he throws 104 at you. Vieira is officially listed at 6-foot-2, but his height is often given offhand by manager Scott Servais or GM Jerry Dipoto as 6-foot-3 or 6-foot-4. The average Brazilian male, meanwhile, is 5-foot-7. There is a little of everything in nature but, as the fifth-most populous nation in the world, a lot of everything in Brazil.

Perhaps part of the height inflation is Vieira’s frame. He’s listed at 220 pounds but looks bigger than that in person, with a Bunyan-esque lower half fueled by daily workouts and a newfound love of American food like the Cheesecake Factory. Having grown up with a single mother who often gave up her own meals so Thyago and his brother could eat, his love of Instagramming his food with heart and praise hands and cake emojis comes into clearer focus.

I first became interested in Vieira last year, when he moved into a closer role with the Bakersfield Blaze, the Mariners’ Low-A team. His picture showed a kid with a big, easy smile and thick black-framed glasses, a la Ricky “Wild Thing” Vaughn. Unfortunately, his command had also emulated Charlie Sheen’s character, leading Vieira to have been stuck in the Mariners’ system since he was drafted in 2011, never making it past A-ball. Brazilian prospects, maybe more so than any other group, are raw, lacking the kind of resources teams pour into talent powerhouses like Venezuela or the Dominican Republic.

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Top 20 Prospects: Washington Nationals

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Washington Nationals farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOSNYY, TB, TOR)

Nationals Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Victor Robles 19 A+ CF 2019 60
2 Juan Soto 18 A- OF 2020 50
3 Erick Fedde 24 AA RHP 2018 50
4 Luis Garcia 16 R SS 2022 45
5 Carter Kieboom 19 R 3B 2021 45
6 Koda Glover 23 MLB RHP 2017 45
7 Andrew Stevenson 22 AA OF 2018 45
8 Sheldon Neuse 22 A- 3B 2019 40
9 Jesus Luzardo 19 R LHP 2020 40
10 Osvaldo Abreu 22 A+ UTIL 2019 40
11 Kelvin Gutierrez 22 A+ 3B 2019 40
12 A.J. Cole 25 MLB RHP 2017 40
13 Pedro Severino 23 MLB C 2017 40
14 Rafael Bautista 23 AA OF 2017 40
15 Austin Voth 24 AAA RHP 2017 40
16 Blake Perkins 20 A CF 2020 40
17 Joan Baez 22 A RHP 2019 40
18 Brian Goodwin 26 MLB OF 2017 40
19 Jose Marmolejos 24 AA 1B 2018 40
20 Anderson Franco 19 A- 3B 2020 40

60 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic
Age 20 Height 6’0 Weight 185 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/70 40/50 30/45 70/60 45/55 70/70

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .280/.376/.423 with 37 stolen bases in 2016.

Scouting Report
Scouts rightly venerate Robles’ heavenly feel to hit. He identifies balls and strikes consistently, makes mid-flight adjustments to breaking balls, casually wields plus bat speed and has feel for the barrel. He’s one of the better pure hitting prospects in the minor leagues, spraying high-quality contact to all fields and then wreaking havoc on the bases. Robles is also a plus-plus runner whose routes in center field are fine, if perhaps a bit circuitous at times. But, just on his speed, he projects as a 55 defender in center field rather conservatively, which allows him to vigilantly guard both outfield gaps. There’s a chance he’s plus there at peak if his reads (especially on balls hit toward shallow center) improve. He also has a plus-plus arm.

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Introducing FanGraphs Residency

Over the last few years, the quantity of terrific baseball writing has exploded online, with a widening variety of publishers putting out interesting commentary and analysis about the game we all love. While we are proud of the work we do here at FanGraphs, there are a lot of people putting out fantastic pieces at other outlets, and we’ve long had a desire to connect some of these great baseball writers with our audience, and help you guys discover other talented scribes to whom you may not have been exposed before.

So, today, we’re proud to announce the FanGraphs Residency program. We’ve reached out to a number of writers we like, and will be giving them an opportunity to publish their work here on FanGraphs during a given month. The number and types of articles they publish will vary, as we’ll mix in research, analysis, and commentary, and our hope is that the different voices to which the program will give a platform will help provide a wide array of content. With different kinds of writers taking turns, we think there’s a good chance everyone will find a new voice to follow, and that this program will help provide some additional exposure to those who have been doing good work at outlets who might not get as much traffic as FanGraphs does.

We’re excited to launch this program by announcing our Resident for the month of March: Kate Preusser. Kate is currently the Managing Editor at Lookout Landing, and if you purchased the 2017 Hardball Times Annual, you likely enjoyed her AL West review, which was highlighted by Paul Swydan as one of his favorite chapters in the book. She also co-hosts the Icosahedron Podcast, and we think you’re going to enjoy getting to read more of her work here during the month of March.

Along with the written articles, each resident will also be joining Carson for an episode of FanGraphs Audio during their month with us, so you’ll get to hear their voices, as well as read their work, during their time here. We hope that this combination will allow you to get to know writers of whom you may not previously have been aware, and hopefully you follow them at their other outlets after their residency here is finished.

We should note that we’re using the residency term more to describe the short-term nature of this position, and won’t be working our residents to the bone in the way that medical residents are sometimes used. These are also paid positions, so we’re not simply asking these writers to provide content to us in exchange for exposure; we believe they are quality writers who deserve larger audiences, and we simply want to give them that opportunity.

We’re excited about this program, and hope that you guys enjoy what each resident brings to the site, as well. Some of the names who are lined up for this summer will already be familiar to you, while others will likely be new, and we think this mix of voices and perspectives will help round out the content that our staff currently provides on a daily basis.

If you have someone you’d like to nominate for a residency position, we’d love to hear about them; you can email residency@fangraphs.com to suggest a writer for a future spot here. This position is designed primarily for those who already have shown that they can provide quality published content, but if you know someone who may not yet have had an opportunity to publish their work but has interesting and insightful things to say about baseball, we’d be happy to consider them as well. If you’re a writer who is interested in a spot, we will ask that you do not nominate yourselves for a residency position, but instead be referred by someone who has enjoyed your work and thinks you would benefit from access to a wider audience.

A few hours from now, you’ll be reading Kate’s first piece here on FanGraphs, and we think you’ll enjoy getting to know her (or know her writing a bit more) over the next month. We hope this program can be a win for both interesting writers and our audience, and look forward to connecting you all with people we think you might really enjoy.


Sunday Notes: Harkey, Jenkins, Intangibles, Spring Stats, Meyer, more.

Mike Harkey saw his career go south in 1991. Coming off a rookie year where he went 12-6, with a 3.26 ERA for the Cubs, the former fourth-overall pick suffered a shoulder injury that essentially squelched a promising future. He persevered after surgery, pitching parts of another six seasons, but he was never the same.

The what-could-have-been hurler doesn’t blame anyone for what happened.

“I think it’s one of those things where everybody is preordained,” said Harkey, who is now the bullpen coach for the Yankees. “X amount of pitchers are going to get hurt, and it was just my turn. I don’t feel I was ever overused. I threw every Friday night at Cal State Fullerton, and when I got to pro ball I pitched every fifth day.”

Four games into his 1991 campaign, he succumbed to the inevitable. His shoulder had begun barking the previous September, but thinking it was tendonitis — “I always had a high tolerance for pain” — he soldiered on. As he said when we spoke last summer, he didn’t know how bad it was until he couldn’t pitch anymore.

Harkey doesn’t begrudge his fate, but he does admit looking back. Read the rest of this entry »


The Best of FanGraphs: February 27-March 3, 2017

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times and blue for Community Research.
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Hey, Is That the 2015 Bryce Harper?

So I don’t want to make too much of a couple swings early in spring training but…

Here’s Bryce Harper’s first at-bat of the spring from last week.

And here’s his second homer in nine spring at-bats, an event having taken place on Thursday.

In Harper’s first four spring games, he’s gone 4-of-9 with two homers and three walks against two strikeouts. It’s really early. This might not mean anything. But after last season’s dramatic decline from his 10-win, MVP-earning 2015 campaign, maybe it’s something. There were whispers about Harper playing through a shoulder injury last season, and his agent Scott Boras said last month that there was “an issue” with which Harper dealt. There sure seemed to be something not quite right.

His average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives fell from 94.5 mph in 2015 to 92.7 last season. Here’s his rolling 2015 exit velocity compared to the league average from Baseball Savant

And his 2016 average exit velocity…

Or maybe the Cubs just got in Harper’s head in early May, walking him 13 times in a four-game series, three times intentionally. After a 19% walk rate during the first half of last season, that mark slipped to 14.7% in the second half. At the same time, his strikeout rate rose from 15.8% to 22.8%. But this is a player who posted a 20% walk rate in 2015. He’s used to being pitched around. So maybe Harper was playing through injury, though he or the Nationals never acknowledged that. Maybe he fell out of a good approach and comfort level at the plate. Maybe it was a combination of factors.

Whatever the reason, his very different 2015 and 2016 seasons make him one of the more interesting players to watch early this season. And if you believe he was hurting after an outstanding April last season, he sure looks healthy right now.

The expectations for 2017 are tempered surrounding a player who is considered to be a generational talent. PECOTA is projecting a four-win season, a .270/.375/.501 slash line, and 27 homers in 575 plate appearances. ZiPS forecasts 4.4 WAR, 29 homers, and a .280/.406/.521 slash line over 600 plate appearances. The Fans projections have Harper being about equal in value to Gary Sanchez.

While Harper’s 2015 was fueled by to some extent by an overperformance on fly balls, pulling a Tyler Naquin, it was still an all-time great season.

And while it’s dangerous to make something of a few spring at bats, sometimes they can mean something. And if these two swings indicate Harper is healthier than he was a year ago, then perhaps he’s a good bet to exceed his projections, and do some in dramatically.