We’ve arrived at the point of the baseball life cycle where Father Time hangs up his Cubs jersey and ponders which jersey he’ll wear next year. A clown car full of free agents is about to hit the open market and already all 30 front offices are drawing up plans about which ones they’ll sign. This year’s free-agent class is woefully lacking in talent and in depth. There are a select few elite players who are sure to attract all sorts of attention, there are a handful of mid-level talents, and there are huge swaths of roster filler. Slim pickings will be had this winter.

However, for teams seeking a new closer, there are three men who present incredibly attractive options. Kenley Jansen, Mark Melancon, and recently crowned World Series champion Aroldis Chapman will be free to sign with any team they please, and Jansen and Chapman will almost certainly destroy any preconceived notions of what typical pay for an elite relief pitcher looks like.

It’s pretty safe to say that every team with intentions of anything resembling contention will be looking to add to their bullpen. These three are just about as good as it gets. Which closer is the absolute best commodity, though? Each has their attractive points and each has their warts.

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“More breaking balls!” That’s how Theo Epstein characterized the postseason for Brian Kenny on the latter’s lead-in show before Game Five of the World Series. It’s a notable observation insofar as it’s a little more actual content than you typically get publicly from a high-ranking front-office exec, but it’s also a matter of public record that his team was seeing a ton of breaking balls in the World Series. Dave Cameron, for example, took an excellent look at the subject earlier this week.

What’s interesting about Epstein’s comment, however, is how he was somehow able to remain vague about his point, even as he seemed to be offering something incredibly specific. He suggests there are more breaking balls in the playoffs, sure. But it’s not clear if he’s implying that there are more breaking balls every postseason for every team, or merely that there were more this postseason for his team, or something in between.

This postseason was defined by a transformation in bullpen usage; that’s not up for discussion, really. But it seems possible that pitching mixes themselves also changed this postseason. And while it would be impossible for Andrew Miller to throw 225 innings and strike out nearly 400 batters — the unfathomable numbers you get if you prorate his postseason work to a full season out of the pen — it might be possible for starting pitchers to throw more breaking balls all season. This postseason trend (if it actually exists) could inform the regular season in a real way.

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This is August Fagerstrom’s last piece here. As he announced on Tuesday, he has taken a position with a Major League team, and that organization will now benefit from the insights that we will miss. August wrote this piece before officially leaving, but we wanted to save it for after the World Series storm had calmed down, since it deserved not to get overshadowed by Chicago’s celebration.

What will be remembered about this year’s postseason, for the rest of history, is the Chicago Cubs winning the World Series. It hadn’t happened in 108 years, if you didn’t hear. That’s the big takeaway here. Beyond that: Game Seven. Game Seven was crazy! We’ll be talking about Game Seven for years.

The other part of the equation is the Cleveland Indians, and the story that seems most likely to be remembered about them was how far they got with so relatively little. The team with the super-rotation at the beginning of the season that was left with scraps at the end. Despite missing two of their three best starters in Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, Cleveland held three of baseball’s most threatening lineups in Boston, Toronto, and Chicago to 42 runs in 15 games, good for a 2.69 ERA, while tossing a record-setting five shutouts. They rode Corey Kluber, Andrew Miller, and Cody Allen as far as they could, but even guys like Josh Tomlin and Ryan Merritt (?!) handed the ball off to the Millers and the Allens with a lead more often than not.

Throughout the postseason, every Indians pitcher was quick to mention the game plan, the approach, and the way catcher Roberto Perez attacked the hitters. Part of that is typical athlete speak, sure. Almost always, these guys are going to deflect and give credit to their teammates. But what does that really mean? What goes into a pre-series, or even pre-game scouting report? Who’s the brains behind that operation? How many brains are behind that operation? And what happens when it makes its way out onto the field?
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Ben and Sam reflect on what they learned from Game Seven of the World Series and the Chicago Cubs’ first championship since 1908.

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As a national writer, come playoff time, you end up with a skewed perspective. Just about all of your attention is concentrated on the playoffs, and so nearly all you’re writing about has to do with the playoffs. The easy assumption is that everyone out there is in the same boat, following along just like you are, but baseball is a game of regional interest, and the majority of teams quit after game 162. And then teams continue to drop out every week, until there are two, until there is one. The playoffs last for a month, and as a writer, they’re exhausting. For so many fans, though, that very same month is boring. You’re just waiting for the playoffs to end. Waiting so baseball can get on with things.

When I chatted during the postseason, I’d always get questions about when the offseason would begin. I’d get questions about free agents and trade rumors, even though I’ve been mostly prepared to talk about the Cubs and the Indians. So many of you have been looking ahead. So many of you have wanted to see what lies beyond, when all the games are over.

All the games are over. Cameron Maybin has been traded. The offseason is here. Welcome back.

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The Cubs are the champions. There’s a rule about champions: the end justifies the means. There are no regrets, and, given a time machine, there’s nothing the team would want to undo, because every event, every decision led up to that final, most beautiful inning. A championship season is a delicate thing, and if you go back to adjust or remove one Jenga block, there’s no telling what causes a tower collapse. The Cubs won, so they’ll embrace how they came to win, for all of the good and all of the weird.

With that being said, we’ve seen something remarkable. *I* think it’s remarkable, anyway — your mileage might vary. Near the end of July, the Cubs made a low-profile trade, adding lefty Mike Montgomery from the Mariners. At the time, it looked like the Cubs might’ve gone for a cheap alternative to the premium-priced elites. A few days later, they paid said premium price for an elite, adding lefty Aroldis Chapman from the Yankees. The Chapman move was the more celebrated one, as all the championship dreams would go. With Chapman, the Cubs looked almost invulnerable. He could be the piece to put them over the top.

Yet in the end, Montgomery proved more valuable. By at least one measure, anyway. Chapman wasn’t what he was supposed to be. The Cubs won almost despite him.

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Cleveland had a great year in 2016, capped by an incredible run to the World Series — a run that fell just a win short, ultimately, of the club’s first championship in nearly 70 years. While Chicago might bask in their glory for a bit — and it would certainly be appropriate for Cleveland to reflect on their fantastic season, as well — it might be a bit more uplifting for Cleveland fans to looks forward to 2017, as long as there’s reason for optimism next year. Rest assured, there’s plenty of reason for optimism next year.

First things first: Cleveland won 94 games in 2016, and there’s no reason to suspect that the season was a fluke fueled by one-run wins or multiple extraordinary performances unlikely to repeat themselves. Their Pythagorean and BaseRuns records both had them exceeding 90 wins. Cleveland absolutely deserved the success they had, and virtually every important piece is set to return for next season. Francisco Lindor, who has emerged as the team’s star and one of the very best players in baseball, will be back and making the major-league minimum. Jose Ramirez solidified himself as a starting third baseman, and even if he can’t replicate his production in 2016, he should still be an above-average contributor. The same is true both for Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana. Those last three might have all played a little above their expected levels in 2016, but they should still be quite effective next season, as well.

The rotation, weakened in the postseason by injuries, should once again represent a strength. Corey Kluber will be back to anchor the rotation, while Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar — who combined for just 283.2 innings in 2016 — will resume their position behind Kluber. Trevor Bauer will return to his role as a fourth starter, where his slightly above-average stats play well. In the fifth spot, Josh Tomlin is back with a salary under $3 million. While his numbers aren’t great, young pitchers like Ryan Merritt and Mike Clevinger tested the waters this year, got some time in the postseason, and provide necessary depth should pitchers get hurt or turn ineffective. Even Zach McAllister could pitch in, as well. The bullpen that was such a strength in the postseason is back, too: Andrew Miller, Cody Allen, and Bryan Shaw are all under contract at reasonable prices, expected to earn around $20 million collectively.

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This morning, Cubs fans are celebrating a World Championship, and a well-earned one. They were the best team all year. They didn’t ride a late-season hot streak to a title; they were the class of baseball from April through October. It doesn’t always happen in baseball, but this year, the best team won it all.

But it almost didn’t happen. For a few minutes, it seemed like the story this morning was going to be Aroldis Chapman. Well, Aroldis Chapman and Joe Maddon. Maddon’s risk-averse decision to use Chapman in Game 6 was one of the big stories coming out of Tuesday’s game, and while Maddon said he didn’t think that outing would have any adverse effects on Chapman’s effectiveness in Game 7, that quickly proved to not be the case.

We all saw the eighth inning. Chapman came in with two outs, looking to convert a four-out save, and he just didn’t have his normal stuff. He threw 19 fastballs in that inning, averaging 98 mph, and topping out at 101. For most pitchers, that’s electric; for Chapman, that’s worrisome. And while Chapman’s normal top-end fastball is enough to put hitters away even without command, this diminished fastball was not.

Brandon Guyer fought off some fastballs away, took some pitches that weren’t close, and worked the count 3-2. And then Chapman threw this pitch.

In terms of horizontal location, it’s actually not bad; outer corner, maybe in the zone. But it’s also a belt-high 98 mph fastball to a right-hander, and Guyer lined it into the gap for an RBI double. That at-bat was the first sign of trouble, because Chapman threw seven fastballs to Guyer, and he didn’t get a single swing and miss.

Chapman would throw 12 more fastballs in the 8th inning, getting just one swinging strike, and of course, he would give up a game-tying home run to Rajai Davis on a 98 mph fastball down and in. It took him 21 pitches to get one out a night after throwing 20 pitches to get five outs, and in that inning, it seemed pretty clear that Chapman was just gassed. The workload had caught up to him, and he just wasn’t able to throw the fastball by anyone the way he was used to.

Which is why I, and a lot of other people, were shocked when Chapman trotted back out to the mound to pitch the ninth inning, with the game still tied at six.

The glorious symmetry of this postseason starting with a manager not using a closer and maybe ending with a manager using a closer too much

— Ben Lindbergh (@BenLindbergh) November 3, 2016

It was clear that Maddon didn’t trust any of his other relievers, but Chapman had now thrown 87 pitches in the last three games, not including the warm-ups he tossed while getting ready to pitch in seven different innings. The bottom of the ninth was the eighth inning in which Chapman had pitched in four days. And Chapman knew he couldn’t just do what he normally does. He just lost a three run lead by trying to throw fastballs by Cleveland’s hitters, and he wasn’t going to do that again.

So instead, Chapman decided to abandon the pitch that made him famous. Here’s how he pitched Carlos Santana leading off the ninth.

That’s an 86 mph hanging slider in the middle of the plate, which he used to steal strike one. The location of the pitch, in pitch chart form.

Everyone expects fastballs from Chapman, so hey, smart pitching by starting Santana off with a slider. He got a free strike, since that’s clearly not what he was looking for on the first pitch of the at-bat. Except, then, the next pitch.

Another slider, this one not close to the zone. Chapman had gotten Yan Gomes to chase a couple of breaking balls out of the zone for the one out he got in the 8th inning, but Carlos Santana isn’t Yan Gomes. Now, the count is 1-1 to Cleveland’s best hitter.

Hey, look, another slider. This one actually had some break to it, but the location was so far from the zone that Santana was able to hold up. 2-1.

From there, Chapman decided to try a fastball. But it was 97 and way outside, so now he was behind Santana 3-1. This was trouble, as a leadoff walk could easily turn into a walkoff hit with the middle of the line-up coming up, so Chapman had to challenge Santana the best he could. He decided to go with another fastball. This is where it ended up.

That’s a centered and elevated 97 mph fastball. Santana was probably looking for something a little lower, knowing Chapman didn’t have his out-pitch fastball, so he didn’t want to chase up out of the zone, but this is a pitch that could have been crushed. Just like the first strike, Chapman got away with a poorly located hittable pitch, but at least now it was 3-2. Now he could try and put Santana away.

But then he threw this.

This might be the worst pitch Arodlis Chapman has ever thrown. That’s an 86 mph slider down the heart of the plate, diving into a right-hander’s bat, in exactly the area where breaking balls get hit to the moon. Again, the pitch location chart, with this particular slider circled.

This was the pitch Carlos Santana dreamed about as a little kid. World Series Game 7, bottom of the 9th, tie game, and a home run immortalizes your swing in baseball history. Except Santana missed it. Go back and watch his hop after he makes contact. He so badly wants that pitch back. He wants another chance to hit that ball 500 feet, because that’s what that pitch deserved.

So that was the first out of the ninth inning. A middle-middle slider for strike one when Santana was probably looking fastball, a borderline 97 mph fastball that was called for strike two but could have been ball four, and then a horrendous hanging breaking ball in the middle of the zone that Santana just missed hitting to the moon.

And yet, Aroldis Chapman kept pitching. With Jason Kipnis up, at least Chapman had the platoon advantage. And after hanging a couple of sliders, maybe he’d go back to his fastball?

Nope.

85 mph belt high slider. Again, borderline strike that goes his way. 0-1, but he still hasn’t thrown a good pitch for a strike the whole inning. What’s next?

Hey, look, another 85 mph slider. This one missed away, which was probably for the best, because that was another loopy breaking ball at the belt. At this point, Kipnis has probably figured out what everyone watching had figured out; Chapman had abandoned his fastball. It was time to look for a slider.

Oh man. This is the same exact pitch he threw Santana. Same spot, same movement, same chance for heroism. This is a disastrous location for an 85 mph slider, but just like Santana got under it a little bit, Kipnis was just out in front. If he waits back a fraction of a second longer, that’s an extra base hit, and maybe a walk-off home run. Chapman narrowly avoided disaster again.

From there, he threw an 87 mph slider into the right-handed batter’s box for ball two, then an 84 mph slider at Kipnis’ eyes for ball three. For the second straight batter, the count was full, and Chapman had to avoid walking the winning run on base. At this point, he had thrown six straight sliders, and everyone in the world knew what was coming next, Kipnis included.

Yeah. Let’s just go to the chart.

85 mph belt-high slider, down the middle. Kipnis spins away in disgust with his version of Santana’s little hop. Another one missed. Another pitch that deserved to end up in the seats. These are terrible pitches, thrown from an exhausted pitcher, in predictable fashion. But Cleveland just kept barely missing.

Finally, perhaps realizing that calling for another one of these sliders is just tempting fate, Miguel Montero sets up for a low and away fastball.

Here’s where the pitch actually ends up.

98 mph fastball, middle of the plate, but up out of the zone. Kipnis went after ball four, and Chapman got his first whiff of the inning. On a pitch that wasn’t anywhere near where his catcher wanted it.

And that was mostly that for Cleveland’s chance to walk it off against an exhausted pitcher who shouldn’t have been on the mound. Francisco Lindor popped up a first pitch 98 mph fastball on the inside corner, a pretty well located pitch, for out number three, and the Cubs went on to win the game in the 10th inning.

But I don’t know if there’s any way to tell the story of Game 7 without talking about how that game was almost lost in the bottom of the ninth on multiple occasions. An overworked pitcher with nothing left, throwing meatballs to Cleveland’s best hitters, and it somehow resulted in a 1-2-3 inning. That’s baseball for you.

The Cubs absolutely deserve to be champions today. They were the best team of 2016, and this time, the postseason rewarded season-long excellence. But man, that bottom of the ninth. That could have so easily gone differently. That probably should have gone differently. And we’d have an entirely different story to tell today.