With just 27 of them per team in any game, outs are a rather precious commodity. It’s important not to give them away, as letting them go often decreases the chance of scoring. Even so, there are some situations in which outs are given away and it’s regarded as advantageous. For example, a pitcher, who is likely quite bad at hitting, is often called to sacrifice bunt, moving a runner over as opposed to the more likely outcome of merely recording an unproductive out by means of strikeout, pop up, ground ball, etc.
There are other so-called “productive outs,” like moving a runner from second to third with a ground ball to the right side or hitting a sacrifice fly, but those situations are more likely to be a happy accident than intentional — i.e. a player was attempting to record a productive hit, but made an out that happened to provide an ancillary benefit. Finally, there’s still another form another potential productive out, in which a base-runner gives himself up so that another runner has a a better chance to score. Let’s explore whether that move is productive or beneficial.
While you’ve likely seen this type of play before, let’s go through a brief example. Earlier this season, Jhonny Peralta stepped to the plate with one out and runners on first and third. Brandon Moss, the runner at third, doesn’t possess great speed and has produced a negative base-running figure over the course his career. Yadier Molina, the runner on first, is a Molina. Peralta hit a fly ball to shallow center field. Coco Crisp, the center fielder, doesn’t have a very strong arm, but given how shallow the play was and Moss’ lack of blazing speed at third base, there was a reasonable chance to throw Moss out at the plate if the latter ran. Moss did run, the throw was slightly off line, and it was cut off by Yonder Alonso, who threw to second base. Max Muncy then chased after Molina, who was running back towards first, caught up to him for the out, but not before Moss was safely at home.
The embedded video below shows the play in full.
So did Molina make the smart play by giving himself up? It’s difficult to know for certain. With the benefit of hindsight, we can see that the throw likely would not have gotten Moss at the plate, rendering Molina’s sacrifice unnecessary. However, that’s not information Molina had at the time he decided to run. If you listen to the clip above with sound, you can hear broadcaster Ricky Horton say, “I don’t know” as the play began to materialize, questioning aloud whether Moss should run. The play itself did not do much to increase the Cardinals’ chances of winning, moving them from 81.5% win expectancy to 83.3% in the game. Of course, those numbers come before and after the play, and the decision we are discussing occurred in the middle of the play after an out was made.
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