Indians Add Guyer, Improve Ability to Hit & Get Hit By Lefties

The Indians, jilted in their effort to improve their offense behind the plate, went back to the trade trough for a smaller deal. They’ve added 30-year-old right-handed Brandon Guyer to their outfield, at the cost of two lower-level prospects in outfielder Nathan Lukes and right-hander Jhonleider Salinas, as Jordan Bastian is reporting.

Though Guyer is no Lucroy, he does fit a need on the Indians team — he can hit lefties well. So far, he’s been 42% better than league average against lefties. The Indians can skew lefty-heavy and have been 6% better than league average against righties so far this year, and 4% worse than average against lefties.

In the outfield, Tyler Naquin and Lonnie Chisenhall are lefties hitting the ball well, and though Naquin is starting against pitchers of both hands, Chisenhall has traditionally been platooned. Since right-hander Rajai Davis has been a bit better than a strict platoon player — he’s been league average against righties the last two years, at least, and provides base running and defensive value in the corner outfield — he might remain a full-time starter until Michael Brantley comes back. The team could easily platoon Chisenhall with Guyer.

Jose Ramirez is increasingly needed at third base with Juan Uribe’s poor play at the plate, so he’s not in the outfield mix post-Guyer, but there’s one more place the newcomer could help. Switch-hitting designated hitter Carlos Santana has really been struggling against lefties this year (64 wRC+) despite being fine against them for his career (128 wRC+).

Between right field and designated hitter, Guyer can at least step into the box against lefties and improve that poor team split against southpaws.

Stepping into the box is the key word here — nobody has been hit more by lefty pitchers in the last three years than Guyer. That’s how he’s turned a middling walk rate into a plus on-base percentage, and by all accounts, it’s a skill. Getting hit by pitches has the same year-to-year correlation (.641) as weighted on base average, and a better one than on-base percentage.

Guyer’s not a great defender, but he can help in most facets of the game, and will be a strong asset for the team when they’re facing a left-hander. Given that they gave up two prospects that weren’t on anyone’s top 100 lists and are far away from the majors, this trade made too much sense for the American League Central leaders to pass up.


Dodgers Trade for American League’s Best Starter*

Presumably, you’re aware that the Dodgers have been playing well, but, presumably, you’re aware that the Dodgers have been playing well without Clayton Kershaw. In a sense, that’s a good thing — it demonstrates that they’re strong even without their most valuable player. But then, nobody wants to be without Kershaw, and he doesn’t have a timetable to return from his back injury. He might not come back this year at all. The Dodgers have been plowing forward without their ace, and their ace is a big part of the equation.

The rumors were predictable. Big-budget operation, deep farm, rotation hole. The Dodgers got linked to Chris Archer, and the Dodgers got linked to Chris Sale. Observers wanted to see the Dodgers make a splash, because splashes are sexy, and restraint can be boring. In what’s at least their first trade Monday, the Dodgers didn’t make said splash. They didn’t give it up for a No. 1. Except, also, they did, in their own way. The Dodgers have acquired Rich Hill, and Hill has been statistically the best starter in his league.

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Scouting Charlie Tilson, New White Sox Outfield Prospect

In exchange for LHP Zach Duke, the White Sox received fourth-outfield prospect Charlie Tilson from St. Louis. Tilson is a plus-plus runner with good bat-to-ball skills but doesn’t project as a regular because of his complete lack of power.

A Chicago-area high schooler, Tilson blew up a bit at the Area Code Games as a rising senior when he stole seven bases in three days of play. The Cardinals selected him in the second round of the 2011 draft and gave him $1.275 million to turn pro instead of heading to Illinois. He missed all of 2012 while recovering from surgery to repair a separated (non-throwing) shoulder, began 2013 in full-season ball and has made a ton of contact ever since. He was hitting .282/.345/.407 with Triple-A Memphis before the trade.

Tilson has just average bat speed, no leverage in his swing and very rarely extends enough to really punish the baseball, resulting in 30-grade game power. He can play all three outfield positions, though his arm is fringe average and fits best in center and left. His ability to play center field while making a lot of contact is probably enough to win him a major-league roster spot, but unless his defense in center greatly outpaces present projections, he only profiles as a bench outfielder or below-average regular.

Despite a relatively humble collection of tools, Tilson ranked 81st on Chris Mitchell’s updated KATOH rankings.

Charlie Tilson, Tool Profile
Tool Present Future
Hit 45 55
Raw Power 30 30
Game Power 30 30
Run 70 70
Field 50 55
Throw 45 45
FV 40

Jay Bruce Makes the Mets More Mets

Going into this trade deadline season, you might have thought that the Mets could use a fifth starter, or a center fielder with good glove and bat combo, or a third baseman, but instead they went and got another corner outfielder when they traded 22-year-old infielder Dilson Herrera and another minor leaguer for the Reds’ Jay Bruce.

Since the Mets have an affordable $13m option on Bruce next season, it may be a look ahead in case Yoenis Cespedes opts out of his contract. But in the meantime, Bruce makes for an uneasy fit on this roster. Sort of. Because he’s also perfect for the team, in that he’s just like the rest of the team. He makes them more like themselves.

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Dodgers Land Reddick, Hill for Trio of Pitching Prospects

We all saw the Jay Bruce trade coming. Seen that one coming for years. This one was a bit more unexpected:

Although Dave Cameron predicted the Dodgers would land Reddick and Hill last week, there was a case to be made for keeping Reddick, and the A’s were reportedly discussing an extension with Hill up until this morning. Now, they’re both Dodgers.

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The Dylan Bundy Hype Train Is Finally Boarding

The Baltimore Orioles’ vision from 2012 is almost fully formed. In 2011, they selected Dylan Bundy with the fourth-overall pick in the draft, and the following year, they did the same with Kevin Gausman. In 2013, Bundy was the No. 2 overall prospect in the game, according to Baseball America. He was Lucas Giolito. Gausman was No. 26 — he was Jose Berrios. Now, three years later, it’s 2016, and the club is in first place. It’s all going to plan. The Orioles are leading the American League East, and it’s all thanks to their dominant starting rotation, led by workhorse aces Bundy and Gausman — among the most dominant one-two punches in the league.

I’m sorry, what’s that? Everything’s true except for the last part? You’re telling me the Orioles are in first place, but their rotation has a 5.00 ERA? They just traded for Wade Miley? Gausman’s never thrown more than 115 innings in a season and has a career-worst 4.45 FIP and Bundy’s only made three major-league starts? Three?

So, maybe the vision from 2012 isn’t fully realized. But the Orioles are winning, and, despite a bit of a circuitous route in getting there, this is the closest that vision’s ever come to being a reality. Because Dylan Bundy is a starter now. Alongside Gausman in the major leagues, and for the first time in their careers, finally. We’ve been waiting for this for years. And, at the risk of delving too deep into sports talk radio host jargon, Bundy feels like he could be a massively important piece for an Orioles club that badly needs a shot in the arm if it wants to make a deep postseason run. I swear I’m not going to use the phrase “X-Factor.”

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Scouting New Pirates Prospect Taylor Hearn

Taylor Hearn has been drafted four times, first selected by the Pirates in the 22nd round of the 2012 draft out of Royse City High School in Texas. After two years at JUCO powerhouse San Jacinto, Hearn transferred to Oklahoma Baptist for his junior season, struck out 71 hitters in 64.1 innings, and was selected in the fifth round of the 2015 draft by Washington.

Hearn was starting for the Nationals’ GCL affiliate before moving to the bullpen upon his promotion to Hagerstown. Despite pitching exclusively in relief for the past month, he has remained stretched out, throwing multiple innings in each appearance, and the Pirates have stated that they hope to develop him as a starter. He has the body and delivery for it.

A lithe and projectable 6-foot-5, Hearn has some issues repeating what is a loose and athletic delivery. The arm is quick and Hearn extends well, allowing his mid-to-upper 90s velocity to play up. Hearn sits 93-96 mph but has been up to 99 in short stints and his fastball features good downhill plane. His slider is average and Hearn has very little command of it, but it has a chance to tick up a half grade or so with reps. His changeup is also promising and projectable, mostly because of how quick and athletic the arm is, and I do think Pittsburgh is right to try to develop Hearn as a rotation arm. The body, delivery and repertoire to start are all either here already or reasonably foreseeable, though moving Hearn along as a starter will take longer than if Washington fast tracked him as a ‘pen arm.

Hearn has had some injury issues throughout his career. He suffered from a strained UCL in high school and had a screw put in his elbow as a college freshman after suffering two humeral fractures. There’s lots of risk involved here, because of Hearn’s injury history and because he throws a baseball very hard for a living, but it’s a intriguing flier for Pittsburgh.

Taylor Hearn, Tool Profile
Tool Present Future
Fastball 70 80
Slider 50 55
Changeup 30 50
Control 40 45
FV 40

2016 Trade Deadline Chatapalooza

12:00
Dave Cameron: Welcome to deadline day.

12:01
Dave Cameron: With four hours to go, there are still a ton of players who should be moved by days end, so I’m guessing we’re going to see a flood of deals once the dam breaks.

12:01
Dave Cameron: This feels like one of those days where everyone has their plan Bs and Cs lined up, so once they all decide to move on from Plan A, we’re going to get a bunch of moves all at once.

12:02
Dave Cameron: We’ll be hanging out here all afternoon, rotating through FG authors depending on who is writing up what. Eric Longenhagen will be swinging by at 2 to answer prospect related questions as well.

12:03
JoshP: How badly do the mets end up overpaying for Bruce?

12:04
Dave Cameron: I don’t really see the fit there. Bruce is an average-at-best player, and he forces Granderson or Conforto to CF. I doubt they’ll pay a high price for him.

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NERD Game Scores for Monday, August 01, 2016

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Toronto at Houston | 20:10 ET
Stroman (135.1 IP, 83 xFIP-) vs. Undecided (N/A)
Not unlike the major of a college junior who’ll definitely just end up getting an English degree, Houston’s starter for tonight’s game against Toronto is currently listed as “Undecided.” Per the author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm designed to assess the aesthetic pleasure of baseball, however, the Astros’ lack of certainty on the matter seems to matter little. Because, regard: Toronto’s starter is compelling right-hander Marcus Stroman. And because, regard also: Toronto and Houston both possess non-zero odds of winning their respective divisions, qualifying for a wild-card spot, or none of the above.* In the end, of course, “none of the above” is what’s chosen for all of us.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

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FanGraphs Audio: Eric Longenhagen’s Fortnightly Program

Episode 672
Lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen is the guest on this edition of the pod, during which he provides scouting reports on prospects — like Philadelphia’s Dylan Cozens and Minnesota’s Zack Granite and the Yankees’ Kyle Higashioka — acquitted well by the most recent iteration of Chris Mitchell’s KATOH projection system; discusses a pair of notable 2017 draft prospects present at Under Armour’s recent prep showcase at Wrigley Field; and talks about the realities of “commanding to both sides of the plate.”

This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 10 min play time.)

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