Red Sox Pay Up for Drew Pomeranz’s Breakout and Risk

The All-Star break is often just that — a much-needed break, for players and executives alike. You might’ve heard this before, but the regular season is something of a grind. Yet the break also comes just in advance of the trade deadline, so one can never get too comfortable. And as trades go, today there’s been a big one: Drew Pomeranz is going from the Padres to the Red Sox, and Anderson Espinoza is reportedly going from the Red Sox to the Padres.

Let’s get this out of the way now: The A’s look really silly. They looked silly even before this — Pomeranz was an All-Star! — but Espinoza is a major return, and quite preferable to Yonder Alonso and Marc Rzepczynski. This is a move I’m sure Oakland regrets. There’s another move I’m sure they regret more.

The Oakland part of this is funny. But the Boston and San Diego parts are also interesting, and obviously more relevant. For the Padres, this moves the rebuild forward, getting another boost from the Red Sox farm system. Perhaps the team learned a lesson from last summer’s inactivity. And for the Red Sox, they’ve now picked up one of the only quality starters known to be out there. Pomeranz’s sudden breakout appears to be legitimate. In question is how much he has left in the tank.

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FanGraphs Chicago Meetup July 14

It’s that time of year again. Time to gather around adult beverages ($4 pints!) and appetizers (free thanks to FanGraphs and BeerGraphs!) and talk baseball with some of your favorite writers. Thursday, July 14th, at 7pm at the Rocking Horse in Chicago, FanGraphs has invited the writers below (and a few more off list) to come and be merry with you. This is a 21-and-over event — the BeerGraphers would have rioted if the beer selection wasn’t top notch — but if we keep packing these things, we’ll do more of these in different venues and styles.

See you soon.

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The Hole In Jason Heyward’s Swing Is Glaring

It’s always been easy to forget that Jason Heyward’s actually a pretty good hitter. The bar was set so high, with a 134 wRC+ as a 20-year-old in 2010, that it became easy to overlook his consistent above-average performance at the plate from 2012-15 as underwhelming. This year, it’s become even easier for Heyward to appear underwhelming, because for once, he actually has been.

Heyward entered the 2016 season with a career batting line 18% better than league-average, and to this point in the season, he’s been 17% worse than league-average. It’s a big swing, and it’s turned Heyward from a player whose bat, when paired with his elite defense, made him a borderline superstar, to essentially a glove-only commodity. That glove alone has still provided the Cubs with a win or two already, but it’s certainly not what they paid for.

Heyward’s shown some signs of life lately — he was a league-average hitter for the month heading into the All-Star Break — but even then, there’s been something that seems… off… about Heyward’s swing.

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Effectively Wild Episode 925: Position Players the Projections Missed

Ben and Sam banter about the Sonoma Stompers and MLB payroll disparities, then try to outwit PECOTA in projecting hitters’ second halves.


Here Comes the National League?

One fact for you: After Tuesday, the American League has won 16 of the past 20 All-Star Games. The National League has won a lousy three, and then there was the silly one. That’s a pretty striking set of results.

Another fact for you: The fact above doesn’t really mean much. Leaving aside all the countless other considerations — we’re talking about 20 games. The Cubs have lost 14 of their past 20 games. The Phillies have won 12 of their past 20 games. The Cubs are a lot better than the Phillies. No one would ever argue that.

A third fact for you: Fans don’t really have league allegiances. It doesn’t really matter to fans which league is better. You just want your team to be good in its league, and then you want to win the last series. There aren’t rival AL and NL street gangs. Differences can exist, and so what.

But, a fourth fact: It’s often said the AL is better than the NL. It long has been. Is it still? It’s an easy thing to check up on, and we are now more than halfway through the season. We can look at things. These have been introductory facts. Let us now consider even more facts.

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Hitter Contact-Quality Report: Catcher

The All-Star Game is behind us, the unofficial second half of the season is set to kick off and, today, we present the last installment in our position-by-position look at hitter contact quality. Last time, it was right fielders; this time, catchers. Granular ball-in-play data such as BIP frequencies, exit speed and launch angle are the key inputs in this analysis.

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Scouting Indians Prospects 2,700 Miles Apart

Over the past few weeks I’ve seen Cleveland Indians prospects in several different places: at the club’s Spring Training complex in Goodyear, Arizona; at the Cal/Carolina League All-Star Game in Lake Elsinore, California; in Wilmington, Delaware; and at the Futures Game in San Diego. Below are my notes on some of Cleveland’s most relevant prospects scouted during this brief window.

Justus Sheffield, LHP, Lynchburg (High-A)

Once primarily a fastball/curveball pitcher, Sheffield’s most used secondary offering now appears to be a slider. His fastball sat 93-95 mph at the Cal/Carolina League All-Star Game in one inning of work and then was 92-94 in his first post-ASG start in Wilmington. Frequently, Sheffield, who is listed at 5-foot-10, fails to get on top of his fastball and the pitch comes in flat and hittable. The slider isn’t totally new — I wrote up Sheffield back in 2014 when it was his fourth option — but, considering how promising the curveball once looked, it’s a bit of surprise that that the slider has become his go-to secondary weapon. It was 84-86, some featured tight, two-plane movement while others were shorter and more cutter-like. It flashed above-average, and I think there’s a chance it could one day be a 55 offering, but was generally fringe-average to average. Sheffield is already trying to run his slider inside on right-handed hitters.

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Dino Ebel on Positioning Angels in the Outfield

One of Dino Ebel’s responsibilities as Mike Scioscia’s bench coach is positioning the outfielders. It’s a data-driven task. Ebel — now in his 12th season with the Angels — relies heavily on information provided by the front office and scouting staff. When you see Kole Calhoun move in several steps or Mike Trout shifting into the opposite-field gap, you can be sure it was done with probability in mind.

Ebel explained what goes into positioning the Anaheim outfield prior to a recent game at Fenway Park.

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Ebel on positioning the outfield: “We look at spray charts and who is pitching. We look at the last 150 at-bats to the last 1,000 at-bats, or whatever it is they give us. Our front office provides us with a lot of data and we put it all together. We have an in-house guy who does the dots.

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2016 Trade Value: #11 to #20

2016 TRADE VALUE SERIES
Introduction
Hon. Mention
#41-50
#31-40
#21-30

And now we’re really getting into the best players in the game. This group is made up of some of the elite performers in the sport, and the quality of short-term value is nearly as high as it is with the top 10. The difference for most of these guys is price and control years; many of them are into their arbitration years and are close enough to free agency that they don’t bring a lot of long-term value. But their short-term impacts are still large enough to put them among the most valuable assets in baseball.

As a reminder for those who haven’t read the first three parts of the series, we’ve significantly upgraded the way we’re presenting the information this year. On the individual player tables, the Guaranteed Dollars and Team Control WAR — which are provided by Dan Szymborski’s ZIPS projections — rows give you an idea of what kind of production and costs a team could expect going forward, though to be clear, we’re not counting the rest of 2016 in those numbers; they’re just included for reference of what a player’s future status looks like. And as a reminder, we’re not ranking players based on those projections, as teams aren’t going to just make trades based on the ZIPS forecasts. That said, they’re a useful tool to provide some context about what a player might do for the next few years.

With those items covered, let’s get to the guys who just missed making the top 10.

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James McCann: A Tigers Catcher on his Craft

James McCann remains a work in progress, but he’s established himself as more than Detroit’s catcher of the future. The 26-year-old University of Arkansas product is entrenched as the Tigers’ primary backstop, having earned the lion’s share of playing time thanks to solid defense and strong leadership skills.

The one thing McCann hasn’t been providing is offense. The second-year player is slashing just .208/.259/.324, with five home runs. Those numbers have come over 53 games, as McCann missed three weeks in April with an ankle injury. Last season, he logged a .683 OPS in 114 games of big-league action.

McCann talked about his defensive game, including his game-calling and improved framing, earlier in the season.

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McCann on processing information and reading hitters: “There’s a stat for everything. You can look up what guys are hitting on 1-1 counts against sliders, and probably even what they’re doing in long sleeves versus short sleeves. That’s how crazy it gets. The information available to us is endless.

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