Projecting Astros Rookie Slugger A.J. Reed
The Astros have gotten painfully little production from the first-base position this season. Spring-training hero Tyler White stopped hitting in April, and Marwin Gonzalez hasn’t exactly stepped up to pick up the slack. Houston’s lack of offense from first is a big reason why they’ve underperformed their preseason expectations. In an effort to fill the void, the Astros have called up top prospect A.J. Reed, who figures to get the lion’s share of starts at first base from here on out.
Reed’s hit everywhere he’s played. In 2014, he lead the SEC in both on-base and slugging his junior season at Kentucky, and he closed out his draft year by slashing .289/.375/.522 between two levels of A-Ball. He enjoyed his biggest breakout last year, when he hit an unquestionably gaudy .337/.428/.604 with 34 homers between High-A and Double-A. His performance has deteriorated a bit this year, but he’s still managed a .266/.345/.509 slash line in Triple-A.
FanGraphs Audio: Dayn Perry’s Menu of Pain
June 27, 2016
Episode 662
Dayn Perry is a contributor to CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball and the author of three books — one of them not very miserable. He’s also the monstrous vermin on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.
This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 21 min play time.)
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The Time Is Not Right to Trade Andrew McCutchen
A few weeks ago, when the Pirates got swept by the Cardinals, while also losing Gerrit Cole and Francisco Cervelli to the DL the same weekend, I noted that the Pirates might have to be a seller this summer, as their playoff odds has dropped down to 14%, and it was looking like this might not be their season. Well, in the two weeks since I wrote that post, their playoff odds have continued their freefall.
As it stands this morning, we’re projecting the Pirates to finish at 80-82, and with the Cubs, Nationals, and Giants all looking like they’ll finish north of 90 wins, that leaves the Mets, Dodgers, Cardinals, and Marlins all looking like Wild Card contenders, each with expected totals between 85-90 wins. To make it into the Wild Card game, the Pirates would have to leapfrog over three of those four teams; that would require them to play at over a .600 clip the rest of the season, most likely, and this doesn’t look like a team that is likely to go on that kind of sustained run.
So barring a miraculous turnaround over the next month, the Pirates are going to be sellers. According to the rumor mill, teams are already kicking the tires on Mark Melancon and Francisco Liriano, and as the deadline draws closer, it’s easy to imagine interest growing in the team’s other contract-year role players like David Freese, Neftali Feliz, and Sean Rodriguez. But with the team looking like a likely seller, attention has turned to a less-likely trade target, with speculation mounting that perhaps now is the time for the Pirates to trade Andrew McCutchen.
The Marlins Are Doing Just Fine Without Dee Gordon
Last week, there was a little event you may have heard about called the “summer solstice.” Both calendars and my elementary-school science classes tell me that means summer just officially began. There are a few basic truths about summer’s infancy: children in your community may currently be in a state of euphoria; it’s time to plan July 4th barbeques; and, most relevant to our shared interests here at FanGraphs, there is still a lot of major-league baseball left to be played this year. As a result, the standings are largely inconsequential at the moment and still subject to massive changes before the postseason rolls around. And, yet, I’m struck by this meaningless triviality: if the season were to end today, the Miami Marlins would be a Wild Card team.
It’s not the most shocking scenario imaginable. The Marlins weren’t among the handful of rebuilding National League teams whose playoff aspirations were written off before the season even began. After all, the team boasted popular preseason picks for MVP and Cy Young in Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez, respectively. But this is also a team which last finished above .500 when Bryce Harper was a high-school sophomore… It wasn’t hard to have doubts that the Marlins would finally capitalize on their talent and actually field a winning team this summer, but the club is currently doing its part to help people forget those doubts. This past weekend, the Marlins took three out of four from the suddenly mortal Cubs to bring their record up to 41-35 and put them into a second place tie in the National League East with the scuffling Mets.
Due to the unpredictable nature of injuries and on-field performance, no team is able to perfectly execute a preseason plan — players get hurt, stars underperform and role players have breakout years — and the Marlins are no exception. One of those unexpected developments for the Marlins is that they’ve fielded one of the best outfields in the league due much less to the contributions of Stanton (currently in the midst of a career-worst season) and much more to Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich. It’s been a well–covered storyline for the Marlins.
There’s another key way in which the Marlins have had to deviate from their preseason plan, too — namely, who they’ve played at second base.
The Astros Have Gotten Themselves Back in It
No matter where you get your information, the Houston Astros entered the season as consensus favorites to win the American League West. Our preseason projections gave them a better than 50% chance to take the division. Forty-six of 55 FanGraphs staff members chose them to win the division. In case you think a pro-Astros bias exists on the site, whether being informed by our projections or for some other reason, consider also that Baseball Prospectus’ staff liked the Astros, as did the fine folks over at CBS and ESPN.
Y’know what’s a great way to dump a big bucket of cold water on some hot preseason expectations? Start your season 6-15. Do that, and you’ll drop your preseason playoff odds by 37% before the end of April and get FanGraphs to write an article saying you’re already in trouble. Another way: start your season 17-28. Do that, and you’ll drop your playoff odds to a season-worst 18% and get Sports Illustrated to write an article wondering if you’re already done. By that point, it was totally reasonable to have written the Astros off, May and all.
Except, y’know what’s a great way to fire those preseason expectations right back up? Win 23 of your next 31, including seven in a row near the end of June. Do that, and you’ll get your get your record back over .500, leapfrog the Mariners in the standings, get your playoff odds back to being a coin flip and get this very article written about you: the Astros have gotten themselves back in it.
Effectively Wild Episode 913: State of the Standings: NL West and AL Central
June 27, 2016
As the regular season’s midpoint approaches, Ben talks to Joe Sheehan and Rany Jazayerli about the state of the NL West and AL Central.
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Finding Nimmo: Projecting the Newest Met
Michael Conforto was supposed to be one of the Mets’ top run producers this year. After storming through the minors last year, the 2014 draftee wound up being a crucial part of his team’s run to the World Series last year. The year 2016 hasn’t been as kind to him, however, which prompted the Mets to send him back to the minor leagues. In his place, they called up another young outfielder: Brandon Nimmo.
If you feel you’ve been hearing about Nimmo for a while, it’s probably because you have. The Mets drafted Nimmo in the first round out of high school way back in 2011: a time long, long ago, when Mike Trout was still in the minors and Matt Kemp was in the midst of an eight-win season. Although he’s been around awhile, Nimmo turned just 23 in March, making him younger than Conforto.
Based on his early performances in the Mets’ system, Nimmo looked like something of a bust. He hit just .259/.382/.374 over roughly 300 games the low minors from 2011 to -13, and then proceeded to hit a miserable .202/.306/.238 in the Arizona Fall League. Most concerning of all, he was striking out in over one-fourth of his trips to the plate.
But once the calendar turned to 2014, Nimmo began living up to his first-round draft pedigree. He broke out in a big way when he slashed .322/.448/.458 in his half-season in High-A. He came back to earth a bit following a promotion to Double-A, but still managed to put up solid numbers across the board, all while keeping his strikeout rate under 20%.
NERD Game Scores: Noah Syndergaard Against the Unknown
June 27, 2016
Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.
Most Highly Rated Game
New York NL at Washington | 19:05 ET
Syndergaard (91.0 IP, 55 xFIP-) vs. Unknown (N/A)
Were one to suggest that Noah Syndergaard faces the unknown tonight in Washington, one would appear to be advancing an existential truth that applies not merely to Syndergaard himself but rather to anyone who’s been tasked with this absurd burden of living. Because, regard: “a perpetual bout with the unknown” certainly isn’t the worst characterization of our works and days. That said, it’s also possible that one, stating that Syndergaard faces the unknown tonight, is merely noting how the Nationals hadn’t named a starting pitcher for this evening’s game. Because they hadn’t. At least not so far as Major League Baseball’s probables page is concerned.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: New York Television.
Michael Conforto’s Wrist and the Language of the CBA
On Saturday, the New York Mets announced that the team was demoting struggling outfielder Michael Conforto, optioning him to Triple-A Las Vegas. On one hand, the Mets’ decision to send Conforto to the minors wasn’t particularly surprising, as the second-year player had been in the midst of a deep slump, hitting just .148/.217/.303 since May 1.
On the other hand, however, the timing of Conforto’s demotion was potentially a bit controversial in a different respect. As ESPN’s Keith Law noted on Saturday:
Conforto just had a cortisone shot for cartilage damage in his wrist. He may have a grievance over this option. https://t.co/cvxOrpHVWC
— keithlaw (@keithlaw) June 25, 2016
Indeed, Conforto reportedly was given a cortisone shot on Tuesday, June 14 to treat strained cartilage in his ailing left wrist.
This is potentially significant because Article XIX(C)(1) of Major League Baseball’s collective bargaining agreement forbids teams from sending injured major-league players to the minor leagues. As the provision clearly states, “Players who are injured and not able to play may not be assigned to a Minor League club.” Instead, the CBA requires clubs to place injured major-league players on the major-league disabled list.