NERD Game Scores for Friday, May 13, 2016

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at Boston | 19:10 ET
McCullers (Season Debut) vs. Wright (41.1 IP, 101 xFIP-)
It was either American rock band 38 Special or ancient and dead Chinese philosopher Laozi who advised the world to “Hold on loosely, but don’t let go. If you cling too tightly, you’re gonna lose it — you’re gonna lose control.” Whatever the precise identity of the author, his/their spiritual wisdom has exerted no little influence over the the Houston Astros, which baseball club has handled Lance McCullers with great care this spring after the right-hander experienced shoulder inflammation in March. He returns to the majors tonight, however, on the strength of a 2015 campaign during which he produced the best adjusted ERA and best adjusted FIP and second-best adjusted xFIP among all rookies who recorded 100 or more innings as a starter. He faces knuckleballer Steven Wright, who has prevented runs with vigor over his first six starts.

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It’s Starting to Click for Drew Pomeranz

Let’s take a little stroll through the big-league leaders in strikeout rate. Jose Fernandez. All right. Clayton Kershaw! Of course. Drew Pomeranz. Naturally. Danny Salazar. Predictable. Max Scherzer. Duh. Stephe-wait, rewind. Well I’ll be damned, there he is. Pomeranz, indeed.

Most recently, Pomeranz went into Chicago and struck out 10 Cubs, and eight of them weren’t even John Lackey. And if you think this might just be a case of strikeout fetishizing, Pomeranz owns a 1.80 ERA, and he’s given up just two unearned runs. The peripherals are good, even if the walks are a little bit up. Seven starts in, and Pomeranz looks fantastic. Not bad for a guy who came to camp as a probable reliever. While relatively little has gone right for the Padres, Pomeranz looks like he could be gathering and assembling all of his pieces. It’s either taken a while, or it’s taken no time at all. That’s up to your own perspective.

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Effectively Wild Episode 883: T.J. Quinn Explains the Latest PED Problems

Ben and Sam talk to ESPN investigative reporter T.J. Quinn about the string of suspensions in the ongoing battle between baseball and PEDs.


Hector Rondon Is Breaking FIP

It requires but a single digit to understand how good Wade Davis has been over the last couple years. Scan the ERA column for this year or last, and the first thing with which you’re greeted is the number zero. You can stop right there. After the zero, the other digits don’t matter. For all intents and purposes, an ERA of 0.34 is the same thing as an ERA of 0.76 is the same thing as an ERA of 0.93. Whatever the number, as long as it starts with a zero, it signifies that the pitcher in question is allowing fewer than one run per nine innings, and it doesn’t get any better than that.

Sometimes, with metrics like Fielding Independent Pitching, it doesn’t even take a digit. It just takes a symbol, and you can stop reading. Like with Hector Rondon, all you have to see is the minus sign. Hector Rondon’s FIP this season is -0.15. That’s negative zero point one five. Rondon has broken the run estimator that is Fielding Independent Pitching.

Of course, even though it feels like we’ve been saying it for a while, it’s still early. And not only is it early, but Rondon is a reliever, and so the sample is even smaller. He’s thrown 13 innings. This means very little! But it is fun! And if the Chicago Cubs had one area that might’ve been viewed as a potential future weakness before the season began, it might’ve been the back end of the bullpen. Rondon, Pedro Strop and Justin Grimm have been great in recent years, but they didn’t have a Kenley Jansen or Craig Kimbrel-type name back there.

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Effectively Wild Episode 882: Scherzer’s Dominance, Described and Dissected

Ben and Sam talk to FanGraphs writer August Fagerstrom about the mechanics and significance of Max Scherzer’s 20-strikeout start.


When Noah Syndergaard Frightened the Dodgers

Over the course of big-league history, there have been a few hundred no-hitters. There have been 66 occasions of a pitcher hitting multiple homers in one game. Scarcity doesn’t automatically mean a superior accomplishment, but what Noah Syndergaard just did against the Dodgers was extraordinary. His first time up, he hit a home run. His second time up, he hit a home run. The last pitcher to pull this off was Micah Owings in 2007, and Owings was more of a hitter, anyway. Here are the MLB.com highlights. This would be no fun without the highlights.

Not that there’s any such thing as a bad home run, but those were big-boy dingers. Syndergaard jumped on a first pitch, and then he jumped on a two-strike pitch. He gets points for diversity, and he also gets points for dumb luck, since the second homer followed four consecutive shown bunts. Instead of moving the runners a little bit over, he moved them all the way over. Syndergaard drove home all the Mets’ runs. He genuinely pitched and hit them to victory. It was one of the better all-around single-game performances in history, I’m sure.

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The Worrisome Trend for Troy Tulowitzki

Among the many surprises of the 2016 season, the fact that the Blue Jays struggling offense is being carried by good performances from their starting rotation has to rank near the top of the list. Toronto bashed their way to the postseason last year, but with Russell Martin (.185 wOBA) and Ryan Goins (.198 wOBA) giving the team absolutely nothing at the plate this year, the bottom of the Blue Jays order has been a rally-killing black hole. And the lack of offense from those two have put pressure on the rest of the line-up, which means that the continuing struggles of Troy Tulowitzki have been a bit more obvious this year.

Tulo didn’t hit that well after coming over from Colorado in the mid-summer trade last year, but his defense at shortstop allowed him to remain a valuable contributor, and because the team was scoring six runs per night, his lack of offense didn’t seem like a big problem. Now, with the team scoring four runs per game, Tulo’s .172/.275/.336 line is a bit more problematic, and the offensive issues magnify his own struggles. Thankfully for the Blue Jays, there’s one easy sign to point to as reason for hope; Tulo has a .190 BABIP, which ranks 190th out of 194 qualified hitters so far this year. That isn’t going to last, and Tulo’s ability to still hit for some power and draw walks means that he should be a productive hitter once again after that number corrects itself with more time.

But it isn’t true that Tulowitzki’s problems are just bad luck. There are some legitimate reasons to think that age might just be slowing his bat in an irreversible way.

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Introducing the Batter-Specific Run-Expectancy Tool

Today at FanGraphs, we’re introducing an interactive run-expectancy tool that incorporates the batter’s skill into the run-expectancy value. The tool, developed by the rather incredible Sean Dolinar, allows the user to input a few factors, including one to account for the batter, and in turn spits out a number estimating how many runs will be scored for the rest of the inning.

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MLB Already Backing Off New Slide Rule

Major League Baseball’s new slide rule has not been without controversy, both in its creation and in its implementation. Some might feel hard slides are just a part of baseball and need no legislation at all. Those parties have already lost this particular battle. There are those who might like some sort of rule, but feel the new rules are a bit too onerous. Still others might feel the new rule is a good one and should be implemented uniformly (I am in this camp). Those who want the rules tweaked appear to be winning now, though, as MLB seems to be backing off full implementation of the slide rule, perhaps to avoid more controversial plays like those which occurred in April.

In the sixth inning of a tied game on Tuesday between the Detroit Tigers and Washington Nationals, James McCann came to bat with the bases loaded and one out. McCann hit a ground ball that appeared as though it could start a double play, thus ending the Tigers’ threat. Anthony Gose, running from first to second, did this:

This play clearly violates the new slide rule. Gose is not close to the bag at all, never even attempts to touch it or be near to it, and is clearly attempting to break up a possible double play. McCann got down the line quickly enough that he likely would have beat the throw even without the slide, but that fact is immaterial to the new slide rule as it was introduced this offseason.

In the end, the play was reviewed, the replay official deciding it was not a violation. Here’s MLB’s explanation as relayed to MLive (H/T Hardball Talk):

Even though the judgment was that runner failed to engage in a bona fide slide, the Replay Official must still find that the runner’s actions hindered and impeded the fielder’s ability to complete a double play. In the absence of the hindering/impeding element — which is a judgment call — the runner cannot be found to have violated 6.01 (j). The judgment on this one was that there was no hindering or impeding of the fielder.

What we find here is a distortion of the rule and a direct contradiction of the clearly written language in which it was authored. Nowhere in the rule does one find the words hindering or impeding or anything similar. When the Jose Bautista slide ended a game earlier this season season, we went over the rule in great detail. Reading the explanation above, however, it would seem that there are actually two requirements for interference in this situation: first, a failure to execute a bonafide slide and, second, that the runner’s actions actually hindered or impeded the fielder. This is not the rule as written.

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Some Justifiable Concerns About Carlos Gomez

It wasn’t that long ago that Carlos Gomez was one of the best position players in baseball. From 2013 to 2014, Gomez’s 130 wRC+ and excellent center-field defense put him in some very elite company:

Position-Player WAR, 2013-2014
Rank Player WAR
1 Mike Trout 18.5
2 Andrew McCutchen 15.3
3 Josh Donaldson 14.1
4 Carlos Gomez 13.1
5 Miguel Cabrera 12.6

But since the start of 2015, Gomez’s offensive production has cratered. A look at his 150-game rolling wRC+ paints the picture quite clearly. He starts to put it together in late 2011, turns himself into a star, and then comes crashing back to Earth.

Screenshot 2016-05-12 at 7.09.31 AM

He missed time with injuries last April and September, and of course there was that whole business with the Mets backing out of a trade for him, reportedly due to concerns about his hip. There’s no way to know exactly how the injuries affected his game last year, but he hasn’t done anything to alleviate concerns during the first month of 2016. He’s striking out a ton and isn’t hitting for any power. Gomez has delivered a 41 wRC+ with a 34.2 K% and .074 ISO so far this year.

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