NERD Game Scores for Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Tampa Bay at Seattle | 22:10 ET
Smyly (39.2 IP, 81 xFIP-) vs. Miley (38.0 IP, 98 xFIP-)
Here one finds the Ben Zobrist of baseball games — which is to say, one distinguished not by the promise of dizzying heights, but by its thoroughgoing competence. Drew Smyly and Wade Miley both offer some aesthetic value, the former for his capacity to induce swings and misses (1.7 standard deviations more frequently than other starters), the latter for the multitude of strikes he throws (67.3% of pitches, 1.5 standard deviations better than average) and the pace at which he works (two standard deviations faster than average starter). Tampa Bay and Seattle’s hitters, meanwhile, also possess their merits. The Rays, a team composed merely of Tampa-area orphan children, have nevertheless produced the second-best park-adjusted home-run rate among all major-league clubs. The Mariners, meanwhile, are well-acquitted by that same measure.

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The Brain Machine That (Maybe) Brought Ryan Madson Back

pov-machine Deep in the bowels of Oakland’s Coliseum, you’ll see Ryan Madson working out with wires strapped to his body. The wires head to a little pack he carries with him, and in that pack is a machine that has helped him recover his career.

The device, pictured here, is the Accelerated Recovery Performance machine, which was administered to Madson by the EVO Ultrafit group in Arizona. The ARP sends electrical stimulation to your muscles much like the stim packs and microcurrent versions out there, but claims to have a proprietary wave form that allows for deeper penetration of the muscles.

The Oakland closer is not alone in believing in the benefits of the ARP machine — many out there tout its abilities to help the body recover and retrain — and yet there are equal shares of doubt about its efficacy.

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FanGraphs Audio: Dave Cameron Out in His Car

Episode 651
Dave Cameron is the managing editor of FanGraphs. During this edition of FanGraphs Audio he examines the Chicago Cubs in no little depth — how, for example, they’ve produced one of the great run-differentials of all time and how, strangely, they might have benefited from Kyle Schwarber‘s early-season injury. Also discussed: Bryce Harper’s lengthy swing-less streak. And also: what makes a knuckleballer like Steven Wright effective when he’s being effective.

This episode of the program is sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 47 min play time.)

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Nationals Keep Stephen Strasburg For Themselves

UPDATE: Strasburg gets fairly minor innings-based incentives, and he has what’s termed a “rolling opt-out” after years three and four. OK!

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There was a lot of chatter last offseason about next offseason, and about how dreary it looked. There was a line of thought that teams were happy to throw money around because they didn’t want to have to pick through next year’s free-agent crop. The options were shaping up to be thin behind Stephen Strasburg. The options are thinner now.

Chelsea Janes broke the news that Strasburg has re-signed with the Nationals long-term. Jon Heyman puts the contract at $175 million over seven years, probably with deferrals and opt-outs. You remember how this stuff works — deferrals reduce the present-day value of the deal, but opt-outs work in the other direction. Opt-outs remain en vogue, while deferrals remain particularly en vogue with the Nationals. Nothing too surprising about the details of the contract. More surprising is the existence of the contract in the first place.

Strasburg is represented by Scott Boras, and he was five months from free agency. Boras clients have skipped free agency because of an extension before, but this one wasn’t expected, not with Strasburg so obviously the best free-agent pitcher due up. Look at this list. LOOK AT IT. With Strasburg off the board, what’s best of what’s left? Rich Hill? Potentially James Shields? Potentially Scott Kazmir? Nothing against any of those pitchers, but they don’t blend Strasburg’s talent and intrigue. Even if Strasburg isn’t officially an ace yet, he was going to be the closest thing. Now he’s just going to keep the same uniform.

Which is not to suggest that Strasburg and Boras aren’t doing well here. How much more could Strasburg really get? David Price got $217 million over seven years, with one opt-out, but Price has the better history, with no scar. That ligament replacement is meaningful, because there’s concern ligaments are vulnerable to re-busting, which makes Strasburg appear more of a risk. By no means should Strasburg be considered a ticking time bomb. He’ll either get hurt again or he won’t, and no one knows the answer. The Nationals know Strasburg pretty well. I think it’s safe to say there’s some additional risk, of either injury or under-performance, and when you factor that in, this is a hell of a deal. Strasburg’s talent + perfect health might = $250 million. Today we see Strasburg’s talent + Strasburg’s history = $175 million.

Over the past three calendar years, out of every starter with at least 300 innings, Strasburg ranks 17th in adjusted ERA, 10th in adjusted FIP, and fourth in adjusted xFIP. At present, for the first time in his career, Strasburg has four pitches he’s comfortable throwing at least a tenth of the time, and that could be a sign of his evolving toward someone better able to generate weak contact. And maybe that’s not the case, I don’t know, because Strasburg sure does throw a lot of innings against the Braves, but there’s no doubting his ability to strike batters out, and walks have never been a problem. This year, there are some other encouraging signs. Strasburg isn’t declining, is the point.

Perhaps his history means he’ll decline soon. Perhaps his history means he’ll get hurt again soon. We still don’t actually know that much about how guys bounce back from UCL replacement, but based just on the Strasburg example to this point, he’s got bullets left in him. The Nationals are counting on his having thousands. This is bad news for would-be spenders, and would-be buyers of Sonny Gray, but now Strasburg has cashed in, and the Nationals have demonstrated that they’re good to play for after all. After spending the winter mostly getting turned down, the Nationals have locked up one shiny prize.


Here Is Every Pitch That the Cubs Threw to Bryce Harper

Buckle up, because this is going to be exhausting. Bryce Harper just batted 19 times during a four-game series between the Nationals and Cubs in Chicago. Harper batted a meager .250, and he slugged a meager .250, but he came away with an OBP of .789, thanks in large part to literally 13 walks. Joe Maddon acknowledged that the Cubs were pitching around him, but he didn’t really need to do so for us to get the message, given what was taking place. How did Harper get pitched? Here are all the final locations:

harper-total

The expression of the day is “the Bonds treatment.” For one four-game series, Bryce Harper was getting pitched like the greatest hitter any of us have ever seen. What’s kind of funny is that Harper has recently been in a slump — he has five hits in 34 official at-bats over the past couple weeks. The Cubs didn’t care, seemingly preferring to go about their business with Ryan Zimmerman and one extra baserunner. At least, much of the time.

Just to what extent did Harper get pitched around? Below, you may behold all 19 plate appearances. For each, I’ll show the sequence, and I’ll assign a 1-to-10 grade indicating how little interest I think the Cubs had in attacking. The grade is entirely subjective and meaningless, but to give it the illusion of meaning, let’s say 1 is pure attack mode, and 10 is unabashed threat avoidance. Here come the Cubs, Bryce Harper, and the Pitching Terrified Index.

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Diagnosing Shelby Miller’s Troubles

Shelby Miller just pitched six innings and allowed just two runs on Saturday. For a pitcher who entered that game having given up 22 runs in 23.1 innings — while also recording as many walks as strikeouts and averaging under four innings per appearance — the start was definitely an encouraging one.

However, there are some caveats, as well. For one, it occurred against a terrible Braves offense. And Miller still gave up another home run. And he recorded two walks against just one strikeout. Miller is far from out of the woods at this point. His main problems so far this season have been pitch selection and lack of velocity. The former is easily fixable. The latter could be a source of trouble if he can’t find the lost velocity at some point — or, alternatively, if the lost velocity is the result of some physical problem that has prevented him from maintaining consistent mechanics.

In each of the past two offseasons, Shelby Miller’s teams have decided to move him. Depending on your narrative, that’s maybe a sign that two organizations gave up on a young pitcher. On the other hand, though, the Cardinals’ receipt of Jason Heyward and the Braves’ massive haul a year later both contradict that narrative: both receiving clubs gave up quite a bit for Miller. When the Cardinals gave up Miller, he was coming off a relatively disappointing 2014 season where his 17% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate, 3.74 ERA and 4.54 FIP were all worse than his promising 2013 season. While the season overall was underwhelming, there were reasons for optimism on Miller when the Braves trade for him, and he delivered on that optimism last season.

During the 2014 campaign, the Cardinals made a deadline deal for Justin Masterson, and while Masterson did not pitch well for St. Louis and has yet to recapture his old form, he did teach Miller a two-seamer grip that Miller was able to use the rest of the 2014 season. At the time of Masterson’s arrival, Miller had recorded a 4.14 ERA and 4.81 FIP, with a 16% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate. To that point in the season, Miller was throwing his four-seam fastball 68% of the time along with a two-seam fastball less than 5% of the time. The rest of the season, Miller threw his four-seamer 48% of the time while upping his two-seamer to 22%. The result? An increased strikeout rate, fewer walks, a better, but not great 4.00 FIP, plus a nice 2.95 ERA over his final 10 starts.

Miller carried that two-seamer to Atlanta, throwing it even more last season (34% of the time vs. 33% on the four-seamer). His walk and strikeout rates remained the same as his late-season run in 2014. Halving his home-run rate helped Miller to a 3.45 FIP and 3.02 ERA — and Miller’s best season as a professional. Arizona made Atlanta an offer it couldn’t refuse and Miller headed into the season hoping to continue last year’s success. 

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Cheslor Late Than Never: Cuthbert Up for Injured Moustakas

Due to a fractured thumb, the Royals will be without Mike Moustakas for at least the next few weeks. No doubt, Kansas City will miss their three-plus win, All-Star third baseman. But as is often the case in baseball, one man’s misfortune is another’s opportunity. In this instance, the beneficiary is Cheslor Cuthbert, whom the Royals recalled from the minors to replace Moustakas.

Unless you’re a Royals fan or a prospect connoisseur, you might have no idea who Cheslor Cuthbert is, but my nerdily-sorted spreadsheets really like the Nicaraguan infielder. Last year, he hit .277/.339/.429 as a 22-year-old in Triple-A. He also struck out in an encouragingly low 14% of his trips to the plate. He already looks like a Royal.

That performance, along with the fact that he plays primarily third base — a somewhat premium defensive position — landed Cuthbert at 74th on KATOH’s preseason top-100 list, placing him tops among Royals farmhands. That was before he opened this season by slashing .333/.402/.624 in 24 games. He was one of the very best hitters at Triple-A over the season’s first month, and was quite possibly the best prospect-age hitter in Triple-A.

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The Cubs Look Like a Perfect Baseball Team

On Thursday, the Nationals arrived on the north side of Chicago to begin a four game series that was billed as a potential NLCS preview. The 20-6 Cubs were squaring off with the 19-8 Nationals in a match-up of two of the best teams in baseball, and while it’s still early, the series was supposed to serve as something of a test for a Cubs team that spent April beating up on a lot of weak opponents.

Test passed. Javier Baez’s 13th inning homer yesterday gave the Cubs a four game sweep over Washington, which followed their three game sweep in Pittsburgh, so the boys from Chicago’s north side have now have a seven game winning streak, with all seven games coming against legitimate contenders. Questions about early season strength of schedule can now be put away, and with the way the Cubs are not only winning games but crushing their opponents, it’s pretty clear that this Cubs team is currently in a class of their own.

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/9/16

11:59
Dan Szymborski: Initiate communication.

11:59
Dan Szymborski: Happy Monday to all of you!

12:00
Dan Szymborski: Well, unless some of you are serial killers on the run or something, in which case I wish a less-than-happy Monday to you.

12:00
Dan Szymborski: Usual reminder: I will be saving any off-topic Qs for the Lightning ROund, but since I sometimes miss questions due to velocity, actually waiting until 1 PM for off-topic questions is a better strategy.

12:00
Jason: What does Texas do about Prince? He’s owed so much money but his production is horrid and he’s far and away the worst offensive player on the team so far.

12:01
Dan Szymborski: What can they do other than sit him down? It’s not like anyone ought to want him.

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The Pirates Have Their Own Thoughts on Outfield Positioning

The Cubs decided to position Dexter Fowler a bit deeper in center field this season, and it might have saved a no-hitter. Anthony Gose, vocal critic of defensive metrics, also finds himself a bit further from home plate, likely due in part to those same metrics which Gose called a “scam.” Research done by Baseball Info Solutions’ owner and chairman John Dewan in 2013 suggested that, generally speaking, fielders who play shallow in center, like Fowler and Gose used to, don’t save enough runs on the balls hit in front of them to make up for the runs lost on balls hit over their heads. The arrival of Statcast has given fans and teams alike previously unprecedented access to information regarding fielder positioning, and the most visible team-mandated adjustments this season have been those which move outfielders closer to the fences in an effort to prevent costly extra base hits at the expense of a few more singles.

But the Pittsburgh Pirates are their own team with their own identity, and if we’ve learned anything about how the organization operates during the Neal Huntington era, it’s that they’re constantly searching for ways to use data to their advantage, and that they’re not afraid to pull the trigger on a radical change. And so while a deeper center field may seem en vogue, the Pirates are zigging while the Cubs, Tigers and others zag, and have instead instructed not only McCutchen, who played one of the five deepest center fields in baseball last year, to bring it in, but also the rest of the outfielders, too.

From a Travis Sawchik story last month, for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review:

“In reviewing the numbers last year, there was so much collateral damage done in front of us, balls that fell in, extra bases that were taken by guys trying to get to balls,” Pirates manager Clint Hurdle said. “It was glaringly apparent that we could make an adjustment, especially with the athleticism of our outfielders and change the dynamic of what’s gone on as far as run prevention.”

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