There’s always a risk that comes with pre-writing. I’m writing this Wednesday afternoon, about Yasiel Puig, even though Puig hasn’t yet begun his game Wednesday night. I can’t know what’s going to happen. Puig might have the game of his life! Or he might hijack a blimp. Life’s a mystery. But what I know is that I’m writing about the Puig who’s batting .235. The Puig with a 78 wRC+ that would very easily stand as a career low. Maybe Puig snaps out of this in between writing and publishing, but what’s happened has most definitely happened, so now, a discussion of that.

You might’ve noticed by now that I take a lot of interest in the way that good hitters get pitched. Puig’s been pitched in a certain way, and it’s remarkably uncomplicated. A couple weeks ago, Dave Roberts said Puig’s been hurt on fastballs in and soft stuff away. Pretty much. And that’s also kind of a traditional blueprint, but it’s been aces against Puig to this point. We have the overall numbers, and we have the idea from the manager. Let’s now get into some deeper evidence.

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This isn’t my own subjective interpretation. When you throw around a word like “favorites,” that opens the door to opinion-based writing, but I have numbers on my side. Sweet, sweet, precious numbers. Look at the following table. You have our preseason projected win totals, and our current projected win totals, which take into account everything that’s happened.

We liked the Astros a lot. Still do, but they’ve done themselves considerable harm. After the Astros, there was a group of four teams, all vying for second or last. The Mariners have emerged through the early going, and now they’re well out in front. Sure, that’s just us, but if it makes you feel any more trusting, PECOTA agrees. Projections still like the Astros, but the Astros are way behind the Mariners, just because of the games in the books. So the Mariners find themselves in a great divisional position. Getting to the point faster: This.

A lot has gone into that picture. Let’s talk.

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Marlon Byrd has been around. Drafted by the Phillies out of Georgia Tech in 1999, the 38-year-old outfielder is in his 15th big-league season. The Indians, who inked him to a contract in March, are his 10th team.

Byrd has never been a star, but he’s had a solid career. His slash line over 6,066 plate appearances is .275/.329/.429 and he’s recorded 504 extra-base hits, including 156 home runs.

Eno Sarris wrote about Byrd a year ago this month, largely through the lens of former teammate Justin Turner. Last week, I caught up to Bryd to get his own perspective on the notable adjustment he made in 2013, and the overall arc of his career.

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Byrd on playing at age 38: “What’s different is that I have more confidence and a higher baseball IQ. It’s knowing instead of trying to figure out. It’s the same process as far as the way I go about my work. I’m just better at it now, because I have more experience.

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A a writer, you typically have an agenda when you approach a major-league hitter in the clubhouse. Literally. Even me! I try to keep it open-ended — and avoid the old “can you talk about how important player X is so that I can finish up my piece on him”-type questions — but I still have a (loose!) narrative sketched around some key stats when I step to a player. It’s called research.

Sometimes, the player has an agenda, too. Maybe that’s wording it too strongly. Sometimes, the player doesn’t want to answer your questions and has something else on his mind. That’s better.

That describes what happened when I talked to Josh Donaldson last night before a game against the Giants. He was obviously thinking about the night before, and when I brought up an old conversation about his two-strike approach, and the deception between Zack Greinke and Paul Konerko, he started talking about pitchers not following the rule book.

I let him run with it.

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Next year’s free-agent class is going to be weak. It was going to be weak before Stephen Strasburg opted out of it. It was going to be weak before Adrian Beltre opted out of it. It might have been strong if Madison Bumgarner, Freddie Freeman, Buster Posey, Chris Sale, and Giancarlo Stanton hadn’t opted out of the class much earlier, but we’ve known for a while now that this year’s free-agent class was not going to be strong. Without Strasburg, the pitching class will be one of the weakest we have seen in recent history.

The position-player side of this year’ free-agent class won’t be strong, but between Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Gomez, and Josh Reddick — along with Yoenis Cespedes and a resurgent Dexter Fowler opting in to next year’s class — there will be handful of above-average players available for teams looking to add an extra bat. On the pitching side, that will not be the case.

After Cespedes signed his three-year contract with the New York Mets, I took a look at the free-agent class Cespedes was entering. With Strasburg gone, Cespedes is likely the top free agent and the only one projected for more than four wins this season. The pitching side looked even worse, as I wrote in January:

Next year is a good year if you want to get a closer on the free-agent market, but if you want an a pitcher approaching an ace level, it is Stephen Strasburg or bust. James Shields would need to opt out of his contract. The same holds true for Scott Kazmir, who got $48 million in the current market. Brett Anderson accepted the qualifying offer this year. The top of next year’s class looks a lot more like the middle of this year’s, and the middle next year looks a lot like the lower-tier options from this offseason.

Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen will be free agents, but when it comes to starters, there’s not much to go around. Last year’s class was topped by Zack Greinke and David Price, but Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmerman weren’t terrible fallback options. Zimmerman put up three wins above replacement last season and he received the fourth-largest contract of the past offseason. Unless a pitcher dramatically exceeds his current projections there won’t be any pitchers who put up even a three-win season this year. The only pitcher currently projected to produce more than 2.1 WAR this season is a 36-year-old pitcher who recorded no major-league starts for a period of six years between August 2009 and September 2015.

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Nothing about Josh Donaldson being great is surprising anymore. There was the late-career breakout in 2012, and then confirmation that the breakout was real in 2013-14. And then, of course, he won the Most Valuable Player award in 2015. We love stories about unexpected rises to prominence more than anything else, and that’s true within baseball and outside of it. Once a player reaches the elite and stays there, the story of the rise fades away, and consistent excellence has a strange way of becoming almost routine — whether it deserves it or not. (Note: it does not.) The really fun part comes, however, when great players do things to try and make themselves more great, pushing themselves past the already absurdly high plateau. From what we’ve seen so far this season, Donaldson appears to be embarking on that hallowed and honorable mission.

First, a little background to what we’re talking about. Donaldson based his breakout on better patience, all-fields power, and a few aggressive mechanical changes. Those mechanical changes were based on the leg kick and bat tipping of Jose Bautista, so it was a nice coincidence when the two were united on the Blue Jays last season. Here’s a couple GIFs that visually explain some of those changes, from a 2014 interview with Jerry Brewer:

2013 swing — smaller leg kick, controlled bat tipping:

2014 swing — bigger leg kick, aggressive bat tipping:

The latter swing is more of the hitter we know today — the guy who consistently murderizes baseballs — and we can see the quite obvious visual similarities to Bautista’s swing. It’s also the swing that, along with his great defense, vaulted him into the top of the WAR leaderboards over the past few years. Since he joined the Jays, however, Donaldson’s batted-ball tendencies have trended more toward his other power-laden teammate, Edwin Encarnacion. There’s certainly potentially something to gain from him moving more toward Encarnacion’s approach, as it has mimicked the sort of trajectory a number of players follow during single-season power surges. Here, allow us to consider how.

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