FanGraphs Baseball

September call-ups are upon us. Now that the minor-league regular season has come to an end, players are getting called up left and right. Some of those players are organizational catchers and journeyman relievers*, but a few of the recent call-ups are prospects who appear to have promising futures in the Show.

*Editor’s note.

With the long weekend, I’ve fallen a bit behind on projecting the prospects who were called up over the past few days. In what follows, I attempt to make up for lost time by projecting several of the players who have recently gotten the call. In case you missed it, I projected Yoan Moncada last week. As usual, KATOH denotes WAR forecast for first six years of player’s major-league career. KATOH+ uses similar methodology with consideration also for Baseball America’s rankings.

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This week, we’re going to run a series of posts laying out the case for the most compelling candidates for the American League’s Most Valuable Player Award. These posts are designed to make an affirmative argument for their subject and are not intended to serve as comprehensive looks at every candidate on their own. The authors tasked with writing these posts may not even believe their subject actually deserves to win, but they were brave enough to make the case anyway. The goal of these posts is to lay out the potential reasons for voters to consider a variety of candidates and to allow the readers to decide which argument is most persuasive.

Other cases: Jose Altuve for AL MVP / Mike Trout for AL MVP.

Mookie Betts has been pretty amazing this season. As we move closer to that time when writers have to submit their MVP ballots, he is going to garner attention. While he may lose some votes to his teammate David Ortiz, and faces stiff competition from the likes of Jose Altuve, Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, Mike Trout and others, Betts has a great case of his own.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles AL at Oakland | 15:35 ET
Meyer (3.2 IP, 140 xFIP-) vs. Cotton (MLB Debut)
The author of this post recognizes that a game featuring two non-contending teams on the same day that, for example, talented pitcher Marcus Stroman is scheduled to start for the wildly competitive Blue Jays or, for example, talented pitcher David Price is scheduled to start for the wildly competitive Red Sox — that such a game probably isn’t Priority No. 1 for the public. Not unlike that light which knocked Paul to the ground, however, as he traveled to Damascus, right-handed Jharel Cotton is going to knock people to the ground as they travel to Damascus this afternoon. After that, he’s going to record his major-league debut for Oakland.

A fixture among the Fringe Five last year and this one, Cotton is a native of the Virgin Islands. Selected out of East Carolina University by the Dodgers in the 20th round of the 2012 draft, Cotton has produced elite strikeout and walk numbers throughout almost the entirety of his career in affiliated baseball. Part of the trade the sent Rich Hill and Josh Reddick to the Dodgers, Cotton has continued to produce elite strikeout and walk numbers as a member of the A’s system. With a fastball that sits 92-94, is how he does it. And with a plus-plus changeup.

Which, here’s an example of that changeup from spring training:

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Oakland Radio.

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The consistency of Christian Yelich throughout his first three major-league seasons, each with identical wRC+ figures of 118, was both promising and, in some ways, perhaps maddening. On the one hand, a hitter with a 118 wRC+ is a good hitter. Especially at such a young age. On the other hand, Yelich has been a ground-ball machine, and with his 6-foot-4 frame, the adjustment to bump up the production a few ticks has seemed so obvious. He doesn’t have to be a slap hitter, and yet he largely has been. And, as with Kansas City’s Eric Hosmer, that inability to adjust — to hit the ball in the air with even slightly greater frequency — has been somewhat confounding.

Unlike Hosmer, Yelich has taken a step forward this year. Our own Jeff Sullivan took early notice of some changes back in May. Yelich was laying off low fastballs, getting himself more good pitches to hit. He was doing a better job of turning on the inside pitch, and a better job of using those offerings to create loft. For the year, Yelich has dropped his ground-ball rate by six points, and while that’s one of the larger decreases across the game, Yelich’s still putting the ball on the ground more than almost anyone.

But then this past week, Yelich showed something else new. You’ll be able to see it rather clearly in this image. Yelich’s already doubled his career-high in home runs, with 18. Here’s the first 15, from before last week, and then you’ll see three new ones pop up in the week since:

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Danny Duffy has had his ups and downs since being drafted by Kansas City in 2007. Many of the former have come in the past 12 months. The 27-year-old southpaw made three relief appearances for the Royals in last year’s World Series and has a ring to show for his efforts. This season, he has emerged as a dominant starter. Duffy is 11-2 with a 3.13 ERA, and his game log includes a 16-strikeout gem.

His resume includes rocky moments, as well. He’s undergone Tommy John surgery, shoulder woes, and more than a little inconsistency. The issues have been mental as well as physical. Duffy admits to having gotten inside his own head at times. He’s put too much pressure on himself, and an early-career soul-searching session even resulted in him walking away from the game for a few months.

Duffy talked about the road he’s traveled, and where he is today, when the Royals visited Fenway Park in late August.

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Duffy on why he’s been able to take a step forward: “That’s an interesting question. I’m just trying to keep it simple, man. It’s that battle I’ve tried to conquer for a while. When you don’t make the game so difficult… it’s hard enough already. I’m kind of just trying to use my stuff for what it is and not trying to be better than I am.

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Jose De Leon made his debut over the weekend and he allowed four runs in six innings to a mediocre Padres lineup. Though he came away with the win, it would be easy to scan the box score and conclude that he probably didn’t deserve it. Just another amped-up rookie going through some major-league jitters. It’s not an uncommon course of events. The first time for everyone ought to be a freebie.

The Dodgers, though, would tell you that De Leon pitched better than that. And even the box score itself would tell you that De Leon pitched better than that. Along with the four runs, De Leon whiffed nine without issuing a walk. Of course, yeah, it was just the Padres. And you don’t ever want to allow four runs. No one’s quite sure when De Leon is going to start again. But the reality of his debut is that he looked exactly as advertised. There are reasons why De Leon has never been traded.

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Episode 680
Dayn Perry is a contributor to CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball and the author of three books — one of them not very miserable. He’s also the idiot guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 54 min play time.)

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Ben and Sam banter about MLB’s copycat comedians, then discuss players whose big contracts seem much more movable (or unmovable) after perception-altering 2016 seasons.