There’s not a lot of footage out there of Garrett Richards throwing a changeup. This is because he would pretty much never throw a changeup, and this is because doing so never made him feel all that comfortable. So, in the past, Richards wouldn’t throw many changeups, but, below, you can see Richards throw a changeup from just a few weeks ago. As a bonus, I’ll also include an additional changeup, thrown on Tuesday.
Episode 642
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio, during which edition he examines Rusney Castillo‘s role (or lack thereof) with Boston, Hyun-soo Kim‘s role (or lack thereof) with Baltimore, and whether Jesus Montero’s career trajectory suggests that there’s also no such a thing as a hitting prospect (it doesn’t suggest that).
This episode of the program is sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.
Audio after the jump. (Approximately 54 min play time.)
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Ben and Sam banter about a listener-suggested expression, then answer listener emails about Albert Pujols’ impact on the Cardinals, rooting against incentive clauses, what a lack of analytics looks like, and more.
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| 9:00 |
: HI EVERYBODY!!!!
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| 9:00 |
: Last week of the offseason. Who’s psyched?!?!?
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| 9:01 |
: Woo Hoo
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| 9:02 |
: Hey, so you guys know I don’t usually pimp my stuff too hard, but if you’re so inclined to read a music article, I had the chance to write one for Pitchfork last week. http://pitchfork.com/thepitch/1068-why-a-tribe-called-quests-phife-dawg-was-sports-fans-favorite-rapper/
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| 9:02 |
: After dark? I’m on the east coast, and it isn’t even dark yet.
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| 9:02 |
: It is now, sucka.
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I don’t normally like to re-visit post topics, especially within the same month, but I’m doing this for two reasons. For one, now we have some data. And for two, the Dodgers have been plagued by bad news for much of spring training, so it’s worth spreading a little optimism. Players have been slowed by injuries left and right, but Alex Wood looks like he could be poised for a major rebound season.
This is what I wrote on March 3. The talk back then was about how Wood spent the offseason trying to correct his mechanics, which started slipping from normalcy somewhere around the end of 2014. It didn’t help when Wood later hurt his foot, which caused further mechanical inconsistency as he worked through the ache, but mainly, Wood wanted to get his arm slot back to where it had been. He was never one to pitch over the top, but as his performance declined, Wood’s left arm dropped lower and lower.
About that! In early March, we had Wood’s words. Now that it’s later March, we have Wood on the mound.
The NCAA Final Four is set, and we’re inside a week until baseball games actually start to mean something. Today, we’ll reach the halfway point of our ball-in-play-based analysis of 2015 starting pitcher performance. Yesterday, it was the NL Central. Now, the NL West.
First, some ground rules. To come up with an overall player population roughly equal to one starting rotation per team, the minimum number of batted balls allowed with Statcast readings was set at 243. Pitchers are listed with their 2015 division mates; those who were traded during the season will appear in the division in which they compiled the most innings. Pitchers are listed in “tru” ERA order. For those who have not read my previous articles on the topic, “tru” ERA is the ERA pitchers “should” have compiled based on the actual BIP frequency and authority they allowed relative to the league. Here we go:
| Name | AVG MPH | FB/LD MPH | GB MPH | POP % | FLY % | LD % | GB % | ADJ C | K % | BB % | ERA – | FIP – | TRU – |
| Kershaw | 84.91 | 89.47 | 83.07 | 2.7% | 25.5% | 21.8% | 50.0% | 88 | 33.8% | 4.7% | 55 | 51 | 56 |
| Greinke | 87.78 | 91.04 | 86.02 | 3.1% | 29.8% | 19.1% | 48.0% | 76 | 23.7% | 4.7% | 43 | 71 | 64 |
| Bumgarner | 87.46 | 90.80 | 85.46 | 4.3% | 31.3% | 22.7% | 41.7% | 92 | 26.9% | 4.5% | 75 | 74 | 70 |
| T.Ross | 87.79 | 90.13 | 86.55 | 2.0% | 17.9% | 18.6% | 61.5% | 79 | 25.8% | 10.2% | 84 | 76 | 73 |
| Ch.Anderson | 88.52 | 91.59 | 87.00 | 3.6% | 30.8% | 23.6% | 42.0% | 94 | 17.3% | 6.3% | 110 | 106 | 94 |
| Bettis | 88.06 | 92.09 | 85.67 | 1.4% | 27.1% | 22.2% | 49.3% | 95 | 19.5% | 8.4% | 108 | 99 | 95 |
| R.Ray | 90.50 | 91.77 | 90.24 | 2.2% | 32.4% | 22.2% | 43.3% | 105 | 21.8% | 9.0% | 90 | 91 | 99 |
| Heston | 89.25 | 92.84 | 86.64 | 2.5% | 23.5% | 21.0% | 53.0% | 99 | 18.9% | 8.6% | 101 | 103 | 100 |
| Shields | 89.69 | 93.14 | 86.52 | 3.5% | 30.8% | 20.8% | 44.9% | 117 | 25.1% | 9.4% | 100 | 114 | 101 |
| Cashner | 88.79 | 92.08 | 87.09 | 2.7% | 27.2% | 22.7% | 47.4% | 106 | 20.5% | 8.2% | 111 | 99 | 101 |
| Kennedy | 89.73 | 92.44 | 87.13 | 3.0% | 35.7% | 22.8% | 38.5% | 121 | 24.4% | 7.3% | 110 | 116 | 101 |
| B.Anderson | 88.98 | 93.65 | 86.70 | 0.4% | 18.1% | 15.2% | 66.3% | 98 | 15.5% | 6.1% | 95 | 101 | 102 |
| Bolsinger | 88.41 | 91.70 | 86.79 | 1.3% | 27.8% | 17.8% | 53.1% | 105 | 21.0% | 9.7% | 93 | 100 | 102 |
| De La Rosa, J. | 86.07 | 90.84 | 83.67 | 1.2% | 26.1% | 20.7% | 52.0% | 104 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 107 | 107 | 103 |
| Despaigne | 87.41 | 90.40 | 85.69 | 1.7% | 25.4% | 22.4% | 50.5% | 96 | 12.6% | 5.9% | 149 | 122 | 105 |
| De La Rosa, R. | 89.13 | 90.55 | 88.30 | 2.4% | 30.4% | 18.1% | 49.1% | 107 | 18.5% | 7.8% | 120 | 123 | 106 |
| Hellickson | 90.14 | 93.64 | 87.19 | 1.5% | 35.0% | 21.1% | 42.4% | 112 | 19.0% | 6.8% | 118 | 114 | 107 |
| Vogelsong | 88.34 | 92.78 | 85.48 | 2.1% | 34.0% | 19.2% | 44.7% | 104 | 18.1% | 9.7% | 120 | 116 | 109 |
| Rusin | 88.60 | 92.64 | 85.62 | 2.7% | 24.5% | 20.8% | 52.1% | 109 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 137 | 121 | 116 |
| Collmenter | 86.12 | 91.84 | 79.40 | 5.2% | 34.8% | 25.6% | 34.5% | 121 | 12.6% | 4.8% | 97 | 119 | 128 |
| Kendrick | 89.70 | 93.37 | 86.46 | 2.7% | 36.5% | 22.0% | 38.8% | 127 | 12.7% | 7.2% | 162 | 157 | 140 |
| AVERAGE | 88.35 | 91.85 | 86.03 | 2.5% | 28.8% | 21.0% | 47.8% | 103 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 104 | 104 | 99 |
Most of the column headers are self explanatory, including average BIP speed (overall and by BIP type), BIP type frequency, K and BB rates, and traditional ERA-, FIP-, and “tru” ERA-. Each pitchers’ Adjusted Contact Score (ADJ C) is also listed. Again, for those of you who have not read my articles on the topic, Unadjusted Contact Score is derived by removing Ks and BBs from opposing hitters’ batting lines, assigning run values to all other events, and comparing them to a league average of 100. Adjusted Contact Score applies league-average production to each pitchers’ individual actual BIP type and velocity mix, and compares it to league average of 100.
It’s been a while since we’ve had a new pitch. Zack Greinke wasn’t sure if that new hard change he learned from Felix Hernandez was a completely new pitch, so we may have to wait and see on that one. Before that, you’ll just have to wade into arguments about the cutter, the palmball, and the splitter. Someone invented them, but there is no consensus about who it was, exactly.
So let’s invent a pitch. It’ll be all ours if it catches on. We’ll get to name it. Or we won’t, as will become abundantly clear by the end of this endeavor.
Previous editions: Arizona / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles (AL) / Los Angeles (NL) / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York (AL) / New York (NL) / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / San Diego / San Francisco.
Yesterday, lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth published his excellently in-depth prospect list for the Seattle Mariners. In this companion piece, I look at that same Seattle farm system through the lens of my recently refined KATOH projection system. The Mariners have the 24th-best farm system in baseball according to KATOH.
Last season, 375 pitchers recorded at least 10 innings as a reliever last season, an average of of more than 12 per team. As a result, there are a lot of names and projections listed below. Bullpens can change greatly from year to year and even during the season. The Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers remade their bullpens on the fly last season on their way to the playoffs. The Royals have made significant changes since last summer when Wade Davis was not even the closer yet. It helps to have a great reliever at the back end of the pen, but if you want to be ranked first on this list, you need to have three.
#1 Yankees
| Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Miller | 65.0 | 13.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | .309 | 81.5 % | 2.32 | 2.39 | 2.3 |
| Dellin Betances | 65.0 | 13.3 | 3.5 | 0.7 | .301 | 81.7 % | 2.33 | 2.49 | 2.0 |
Aroldis Chapman  |
55.0 | 14.3 | 4.0 | 0.7 | .309 | 82.3 % | 2.35 | 2.50 | 1.4 |
| Chasen Shreve | 55.0 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | .303 | 75.4 % | 3.77 | 3.96 | 0.3 |
| Branden Pinder | 45.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | .301 | 72.3 % | 4.36 | 4.46 | 0.0 |
| James Pazos | 40.0 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.0 | .304 | 72.8 % | 3.98 | 4.02 | 0.1 |
| Nick Rumbelow | 35.0 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | .306 | 72.9 % | 4.03 | 3.96 | 0.0 |
| Bryan Mitchell | 30.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.1 | .308 | 69.6 % | 4.82 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| Kirby Yates | 25.0 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.4 | .305 | 74.7 % | 4.18 | 4.42 | 0.0 |
| Nicholas Goody | 20.0 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | .306 | 73.7 % | 3.81 | 3.82 | 0.0 |
| Tyler Olson | 15.0 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | .297 | 71.7 % | 4.29 | 4.54 | 0.0 |
| Jacob Lindgren | 10.0 | 10.4 | 4.4 | 1.1 | .305 | 75.9 % | 3.75 | 3.91 | 0.0 |
| Johnny Barbato | 10.0 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | .307 | 72.5 % | 4.34 | 4.44 | 0.0 |
| Evan Rutckyj | 10.0 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.0 | .296 | 73.2 % | 4.04 | 4.28 | 0.0 |
| The Others | 19.0 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.2 | .322 | 69.5 % | 4.73 | 4.50 | 0.0 |
| Total | 499.0 | 10.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | .305 | 75.7 % | 3.48 | 3.57 | 6.0 |
Within these projections, there are 10 relievers forecast to produce at least 11 strikeouts per nine innings and at least 50 innings pitched. There are five relievers with at least 12 strikeouts per nine innings and at least 50 innings pitched. There are three relievers with at least 13 strikeouts per nine innings and at least 50 innings pitched, and all three are members of the New York Yankees. Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, and Aroldis Chapman were the only pitchers in Major League Baseball last season to exceed 14 K/9, striking out roughly 40% of all batters who stepped to the plate against them last year. Miller and Betances combined to lead the Yankees bullpen last season, and this season the team added Aroldis Chapman at a discounted price due to a offseason domestic-violence incident which eventually resulted in a 30-game suspension.
Last season’s Yankees bullpen pitched very well, posting the third-highest bullpen WAR, although with 530.2 innings, the pen was forced to carry a relatively large load due to fewer innings from the starting rotation. The fewer innings a bullpen has to pitch, the greater percentage go to the best pitchers. With three of the very best relievers in baseball, a healthier rotation could push the Yankees to the top spot this season.
The Yankees traded away another lefty in Justin Wilson to the Tigers during the winter. Wilson was perhaps a bit underrated, and limits the improvements the Yankees can make over last season’s very good pen. Chasen Shreve is the forgotten lefty in the Yankees pen with the potential to be this season’s Justin Wilson. He can prpoduce strikeouts, but last season, they came with walks and a few too many home runs. After Shreve, we have a host of replacement-level pitchers the Yankees can cycle in and out as they see fit, but the top three alone vault the Yankees to the top of Power Rankings by a healthy margin.
| 11:49 |
: Heyyo! Chat begins at noon. Soundtrack: Mogwai — Mogwai Young Team
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| 12:02 |
: Alright, let’s do this
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| 12:03 |
: Is Joey Votto’s new uh…batting stance…the best thing ever?
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| 12:03 |
: Yes, yes it is.
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| 12:04 |
:
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| 12:04 |
: “I’m thinking.” is the greatest response he could’ve possibly given. I love the idea that he thinks so hard he has to bend over
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