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Ruben Amaro had a reputation in Philadelphia. To many, the only evaluation tools he trusted were his scouts’ eyes. Basically, he was an old-fashioned — if not backwards-thinking — general manager.

The extent to which that’s accurate is debatable. Amaro wasn’t necessarily cutting edge — Matt Klentak, who replaced him as Phillies general manager, is clearly more analytical — but the perception was skewed. Amaro attended Stanford and learned from Pat Gillick, so his intelligence and knowledge base are anything but slight.

That’s not to say he didn’t make errors in judgement over his tenure. He made several, which is part of the reason he was relieved of his duties last September. Amaro is now with the Red Sox, having made an atypical move from high-ranking front-office executive to first-base coach.

On Sunday, Amaro took a few minutes to shed some light on his days as a decision-maker. The role of analytics in the evaluation process formed the crux of our conversation.

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Amaro on analytics: “You can’t ever deny the numbers. That’s true for every GM and every baseball person, regardless of whether you’re ‘old school’ or ‘new school.’ When a scout walks in, the first thing he does is pick up a stat sheet and look at what the player does and what he’s been doing. The numbers don’t lie.

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I write some version of this post every spring, and each time, I’m more excited at first than I am as I get more involved. Whenever it comes back to me, I always like the idea, but then eventually I remember it just isn’t that important. It certainly isn’t something people are keeping in mind all season long — no one really worries about the standings until, I don’t know, July, and the league-wide landscape in baseball is pretty even, relative to other professional sports. Most fans operate under the assumption the schedules are more or less even, and they nearly are. Differences are subtle.

But, you know, differences are there, and remember that this is an MLB environment that considers a win on the free-agent market to be worth something like $8 million. Every single win is important, in some sense, and because the schedules aren’t truly identical, there’s no harm in examining the projected advantages and disadvantages. Acknowledging from the outset that this is all based on projections, and that you don’t agree with all the projections, let’s quickly go over the various schedule strengths.

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Ben and Sam banter about a T-Pain tweet, two famous phrases, Ray Searage, and the final results of their contracts draft, then answer listener emails about the Cubs, a baseball broadcast from Better Call Saul, redistributing salaries, and more.

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9:00	Paul Swydan:

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Every year, we go through spring training, and every year, we mostly ignore it, so, every year, we get asked what, if anything, really matters out of these preseason contests. For me, the answer has remained the same. As hitters go, it’s difficult to find substance, although you might be able to read into any newfound power to the opposite field. That’s what tipped me off a few years ago to the coming emergence by Michael Saunders. It’s a little easier to get into pitchers, and while it can be fun to track any progress by newly-adopted pitches, it mainly comes down to velocity. There’s not really any “faking” velocity. Any velocity spike warrants attention. Any velocity drop warrants different attention.

It’s simplistic, sure, and it can be a little annoying, because some pitchers are still building up their arm strength, and spring-training velocities aren’t widely available. If you focus on velocity, though, you have the best chance of keeping signal separated from noise. You have a decent chance of not being deceived, and with all this in mind, I’ve already seen one particularly encouraging note. When the Astros signed Doug Fister, he was something of a reclamation project. He might already be most of the way fixed.

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Yesterday, the Orioles agreed to terms with Pedro Alvarez, potentially bringing him in — though we’ve learned to not count our chickens with Baltimore signings — to add some additional left-handed power to their line-up. As August noted this morning, Alvarez is a weird fit for the Orioles, because the Orioles needed an outfielder, and Alvarez is a DH. Signing Alvarez forces Mark Trumbo to right field, where he’s terrible, the effect of weakening the team’s defense probably will cancel out most of the offensive gain Alvarez might bring at the plate, making this a non-upgrade, or at least an inconsequential one.

But there’s also another potential story with the Alvarez signing. Pedro Alvarez strikes out a lot. In that way, the Orioles are a natural fit for Alvarez, because the Orioles clearly don’t mind strikeouts. They have Chris Davis, after all, and they traded for Mark Trumbo, and most of their role players don’t make a lot of contact either. Last year, the Orioles ranked third in the majors in strikeout rate (22.2%), and with Alvarez and Trumbo now in the fold, that number is probably going up in 2016.

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While a few more moves will certainly occur here and there before the start of the season, team payrolls for the 2016 campaign are taking shape. After adding in the Baltimore Orioles’ signing of Pedro Alvarez, we have a pretty good idea of how the Opening Day payrolls will appear. Much of the offseason has been spent discussing the qualifying offer and “tanking,” but those issues are related to the larger issue of team spending. Revenue and payroll have been growing, but based on the team payrolls, it looks like the growth we saw over the past few years slowed down this offseason.

To determine Opening Day payrolls, I took the raw data from Cot’s contracts and added in minimum salaries to reach the 25-man total needed to field a team. Dead money paid to other teams was included. Over the next month, as players hit the disabled list or veterans with minor-league contracts earn their way onto rosters and get guaranteed deals above the minimum, the team payrolls will likely rise by a small amount, perhaps a few million dollars per team, but will not change the overall outlook by team.

Below is the current Opening Day payroll information for every team. To nobody’s surprise, the Dodgers lead the way.

Update: The Minnesota Twins have not been contracted and are included in the chart.

Also not a surprise: the Tampa Bay Rays bring up the rear. The average payroll right now is $128 million, and the median is right up there at $126 million. However, right after that median, there’s a major dropoff. The Chicago White Sox come in at $125 million, but after them, there is more than a $20 million drop to the Colorado Rockies. The top-four teams have a higher combined payroll than the bottom-ten teams combined, but that tier above $120 million speaks somewhat to the Royals’ success and the second wild card. Teams who might project for 75-80 wins can make a move or two and put themselves in contention for the playoffs, where anything can happen.

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Last year seems so long ago, but if you remember back to September, you probably remember Kyle Hendricks at his best. That month, he struck out nearly seven batters for every walk. He ended the season with 12 straight shutout innings and 17 strikeouts against two walks. Against the Royals and in Milwaukee.

What was the magic all about that month? Because, if Hendricks is that guy again, there’s no competition for his spot in the rotation. With regard to his pitching mix, though, nothing stands out as obviously different.

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