The headline is similar to some from a month ago, except that time it was the Los Angeles Dodgers that had been in talks to trade for Aroldis Chapman. That deal fell through after troubling reports surfaced indicating Chapman was under investigation for domestic violence and assualt. While those reports prevented a deal from taking place at the time, they apparently have not kept all teams away, as the Yankees have acquired Chapman from the Reds for prospects, as first reported by Jack Curry.
The Reds haul for Chapman is set to include Eric Jagielo, Rookie Davis, Caleb Cotham, and Tony Renda, per Joel Sherman. The Yankees appear to have acquired Chapman without giving up any of their very best prospects. Davis, a right-handed starter who reached Double-A last season, was ranked sixth by Baseball America in their latest edition of Yankees’ prospects, but none of the other players made the Top Ten. There is some discrepancy in their value as MLB.com lists Jagielo, a 23-year-old third baseman, sixth and Davis 10th among Yankees’ prospects. Neither Coltham nor Renda appear on MLB.com’s list of top 30 Yankees’ prospects.
Chapman has long been one of the very best, if not the best reliever in baseball. He has struck out more than 40% of hitters in each of the last four seasons. His career FIP is 1.97 that goes nicely with a 2.17 ERA. He posts the WAR numbers of an above-average starter despite pitching one-third the amount of innings. The Yankees could keep Chapman, Dellin Betances, and Andrew Miller and have a ridiculously good bullpen, or they could turn around and trade Miller for players likely better than the ones they gave up to get Chapman.
A month ago, it was not quite clear what the Dodgers would have given up to get Chapman. Given that none of the prospects the Yankees are giving up were in Kiley McDaniel’s preseason Top 200 list, and none appeared in the mid-season update either, the Dodgers package likely would have exceeded the players the Reds are currently receiving. While the trades for Craig Kimbrel and Ken Giles involved multiple seasons of team control, this package appears significantly lighter than other trades for closers this offseason.
Chapman was involved in an alleged assault of his girlfriend that included firing multiple gunshots in his garage. MLB is currently investigating Chapman under its new domestic violence policy and there is a possibility that Chapman could be suspended for significant time next season. No player has yet been suspended under the new policy so no precedent exists to predict how long Chapman could be out. While Chapman was not arrested, an arrest is not necessary for a suspension under the new policy which gives the Commissioner discretion.
Chapman was set to be eligible for free agency after next season, but if he receives a lengthy suspension, free agency could be delayed by a year if he loses enough service time. After Chapman’s arrest, his trade value, or at least the number of suitors, has appeared to decline. The Yankees gave up some decent, but not great prospects for a reliever with considerable questions, both of character as well as the ability to stay on the field given his alleged transgressions. A month ago, this might have looked like a great trade. Now, it is much more difficult to tell.
