Ben and Sam banter about David Price and Ryan Madson and discuss the Zack Greinke and Jeff Samardzija signings.
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After missing out on re-signing Zack Greinke, it seems likely that the Dodgers are about to have a very active week as the winter meetings begin. In fact, they might be checking one big item off the list before the meetings even officially begin.
Sources: #Dodgers in talks to acquire Aroldis Chapman from #Reds for prospects.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 6, 2015
Source: There is growing confidence in the Dodgers organization that they're going to be able to finish Aroldis Chapman trade.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) December 6, 2015
Sources: #Dodgers making progress on Chapman deal with #Reds.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 6, 2015
The Dodgers already have one of the best relievers in baseball in Kenley Jansen, but adding Chapman would instantly give them the best two reliever combination in baseball — with all due respect to Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller, who are fantastic themselves — and would allow the team to avoid many of the 8th inning issues they struggled with in 2015. That is, assuming Jansen doesn’t mind being demoted out of the closer’s role; the Drew Storen narrative will certainly be brought up if Jansen doesn’t pitch as well in the 8th inning as he did in the 9th, and we don’t know enough to say that it absolutely isn’t a factor. But it’s probably better to assume that Jansen’s cutter will still be ridiculously difficult to hit, even when he’s pitching in non-save situations.
The Dodgers have a lot of prospect depth to trade from, and with Chapman being highly likely to receive a qualifying offer at the end of next year, the return for him should be significant, even though it’s just one year of team control.
Barry Bonds being hired as the new hitting coach in Miami evokes memories of Ted Williams managing the Washington Senators (who became the Texas Rangers by the end of his tenure). The self-proclaimed “Greatest Hitter Who Ever Lived” wasn’t nearly as accomplished in the dugout as he was in the batter’s box. In four seasons (1969-1972) Williams’ teams went a cumulative 273-364.
The comparison is apples-to-oranges — hitting coach and manager are two different animals — but parallels exist. The Senators were a woebegone franchise, and in many respects, the Marlins are the modern day Senators.
And then there are the protagonists.
Along with Babe Ruth, Bonds and Williams are the most prolific hitters in baseball history. They have also been famously irascible, particularly with the media. Bonds will presumably shelve his surliness — it won’t fly in his new role, not in today’s game — but a bigger obstacle looms.
As a manager, Williams had trouble reconciling himself to the fact that his hitters were so imperfect. Why did they all too often struggle to understand facets of the craft that came naturally to him? Read the rest of this entry »
Want to know an easy way to provoke someone into complaining about how all professional athletes are overpaid? Tell this person there was a pitcher last year who led all of baseball in both hits and runs allowed. And I mean “led” in the bad way, not the good way. Let that sink in, then tell the person the pitcher was a free agent, and finally tell the person that pitcher signed for five years and $90 million. More often than not, a rant is going to follow. It’s going to be a weird rant, that misses the point about how much money there is floating around in baseball these days, and the reality is that players are getting less of the league revenue than they used to. But you already knew it would be a weird rant. That’s why you targeted this given individual in the first place.
There are people who like to say that free agency is about rewarding players for what they’ve already done. To some extent it’s true — free agents score when they’ve proven they can be good. But of course, free agency is really about investing in the future, and I’m not sure it gets more clear than it is right here, with the Giants paying pretty big money for a pitcher coming off a conventionally disappointing season. This isn’t about what Jeff Samardzija’s done, certainly not what he’s done most recently. This is about what the Giants think Samardzija is going to be. Heaven knows they weren’t alone.
Zack Greinke looks to be worth what the Diamondbacks will be paying him. We still don’t have a complete idea of the structure of his contract, so it’s not like everything can be nailed down precisely, but he’s one of the most valuable pitchers in baseball, and he’s going to get paid like it. When you factor in everything he does — pitch, hit, defend — Greinke’s projected contract comes out looking a lot like his actual contract. So, based on our usual estimates, this is a totally acceptable free-agent deal. Good for Greinke, good for Arizona.
Here’s where it gets more complicated: those usual estimates don’t do much to account for team context. Let’s say the going rate for a win in free agency is $8 million. The specific number doesn’t matter. That’s what any team should expect to pay. But you can’t pay everyone free-agent money — that would mean, to expect 40 team WAR, you’d need a payroll of $320 million. $8 million might be the cost of a win in free agency, for every team, but not every team has the same total $/WAR target. As always, the biggest-spending teams have an advantage. Teams like the Diamondbacks need to be more careful.
A day after missing out on Zack Greinke, the Giants quickly turned to their secondary plan.
Source: Samardzija is five years, $90M with #SFGiants, as @TBrownYahoo said.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 5, 2015
Even coming off a miserable season, Samardzija was still able to land a deal for $18 million per year, $3 million more per season than I predicted, and well north of the $64 million the crowd projected. The Giants, like the other suitors, chose to look beyond his 2015 performance, and are paying for the expected future value that lies in a right-arm that still owns premium stuff.
Even with the lousy 2015 season on his track record, Steamer still sees roughly a +3 WAR pitcher going forward, so this deal isn’t nearly as crazy as one might think by just looking at most recent season.
| Year | Age | WAR | $/WAR | Est. Value |
| 2016 | 31 | 2.8 | $8.0 M | $22.4 M |
| 2017 | 32 | 2.3 | $8.4 M | $19.3 M |
| 2018 | 33 | 1.8 | $8.8 M | $15.9 M |
| 2019 | 34 | 1.3 | $9.3 M | $12.0 M |
| 2020 | 35 | 0.8 | $9.7 M | $7.8 M |
| Totals | 9.0 | $77.4 M |
Dan Szymborski put up the ZIPS forecast for Samardzija on Twitter, and it’s even more optimistic.
Samardzija #ZiPS projection in SF. pic.twitter.com/5IQecABMus
— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) December 5, 2015
While $90 million isn’t cheap, Samardzija doesn’t project dramatically worse than Jordan Zimmermann going forward, and this is the price range the market is establishing for above average pitchers. And by signing Samardzija for $90 million, the Giants likely have room to add a second starter as well while still coming in under the total amount they would have had to pay Greinke over the next five or six years.
While there will likely be lots of criticism of this deal from those who simply look at Samardzija’s disaster season in Chicago, the stuff and the longer track record suggest that he’s still a quality arm who just had a bad year. $90 million isn’t a bargain, especially when you factor in the cost of the draft pick surrendered to sign him, but Samardzija’s a good pitcher who will help the team win, and this isn’t a dramatic overpay for a team looking to win in the short-term.
Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times, orange for TechGraphs and blue for Community Research.
Read the rest of this entry »
Tonight, we saw the internet trolled by a fake account saying that Zack Greinke had signed with the Giants. Just when those foolish enough to fall for the troll (note: this includes me) were calming down, real reporters announced that Greinke had in fact signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The marvelous Ken Rosenthal has the deal at six years, $206 million, which would be a record for pitching average annual value (though he notes that some of the money may be deferred).
While this might not be truly astounding, as the Dbacks have indicated a desire to land an ace this offseason and shown a particular interest in Greinke, it’s still a little unexpected. The signing brings the Dbacks a modicum of respectability, and opens up the possibility that the 2016 National League West will be more than the two-horse race it’s been in recent years.
Through much of Friday, the Dbacks starting rotation depth chart looked like this:
SP Diamondbacks
| Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin | 187.0 | 7.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | .301 | 73.8 % | 3.47 | 3.65 | 3.0 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | 174.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | .301 | 71.4 % | 4.08 | 4.14 | 1.7 |
| Robbie Ray | 148.0 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | .299 | 72.6 % | 3.88 | 3.95 | 1.8 |
| Chase Anderson | 137.0 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | .299 | 72.9 % | 3.95 | 4.15 | 1.4 |
| Archie Bradley | 122.0 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 0.9 | .302 | 70.4 % | 4.32 | 4.31 | 1.0 |
| Zachary Godley | 100.0 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | .301 | 70.5 % | 4.40 | 4.43 | 0.7 |
| Josh Collmenter | 47.0 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | .295 | 73.8 % | 4.15 | 4.63 | 0.2 |
| Andrew Schugel | 28.0 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | .302 | 70.7 % | 4.32 | 4.44 | 0.2 |
| Total | 943.0 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | .300 | 72.1 % | 3.98 | 4.10 | 9.9 |
That 9.9 WAR wasn’t really blowing anyone’s skirt up. Let’s add Greinke to the mix:
SP Diamondbacks
| Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Greinke | 222.0 | 8.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | .301 | 75.3 % | 3.18 | 3.39 | 4.2 |
| Patrick Corbin | 187.0 | 7.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | .301 | 73.8 % | 3.47 | 3.65 | 3.0 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | 145.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | .301 | 71.4 % | 4.08 | 4.14 | 1.5 |
| Robbie Ray | 139.0 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | .299 | 72.6 % | 3.88 | 3.95 | 1.7 |
| Chase Anderson | 119.0 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | .299 | 72.9 % | 3.95 | 4.15 | 1.2 |
| Archie Bradley | 75.0 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 0.9 | .302 | 70.4 % | 4.32 | 4.31 | 0.6 |
| Zachary Godley | 27.0 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | .301 | 70.5 % | 4.40 | 4.43 | 0.2 |
| Josh Collmenter | 28.0 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | .295 | 73.8 % | 4.15 | 4.63 | 0.1 |
| Andrew Schugel | 28.0 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | .302 | 70.7 % | 4.32 | 4.44 | 0.2 |
| Total | 970.0 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | .300 | 73.0 % | 3.75 | 3.89 | 12.6 |
Let’s be clear — adding Greinke to the mix doesn’t instantly make the Dbacks World Series favorites, but they’ve leapfrogged from the bottom of the starting pitching pile into the middle of the pack. Greinke’s inclusion represents a projected upgrade of 2.7 WAR, as the majority of the innings that he will be taking were from near-replacement-level pitchers. (Also, this is just a quick and dirty projection of how the innings for the rest of the staff will shake out. It might not be 100% accurate, but you get the idea — some incumbents not named Patrick Corbin will see fewer innings next season.)
Before, Arizona was in a dead heat with the Marlins for the 24th-best projected rotation. Now, they’re in a dead heat for 14th overall with the Rangers and Mariners, and eighth in the NL. That’s a lot better than where they were 24 hours ago.
Dave delved into why Greinke is worth $200 million earlier today, and we’ll undoubtedly have more on this deal in the coming days, but Dbacks fans can be elated tonight. The Dbacks had to give up the 13th pick in the coming draft to net Greinke, but that is a small price to pay for landing one of the top pitchers in the game. And again, he’s not just good at pitching. As Dave mentioned and as Jeff has covered before, he is good at hitting. Oh, and fielding, too.
Not everyone is a big fan of the second wild card, and I count myself in the camp of those who are critical of it. But one of the effects of adding a second wild card is that the barrier to playoff entry is lower than it was in the past. With Paul Goldschmidt, Zack Greinke, and A.J. Pollock leading the way, and good supporting players like Ender Inciarte, David Peralta, Jake Lamb and Corbin, the Dbacks as contenders is no longer far fetched. As August noted earlier this week, the Dbacks have shown the ability to hang around the .500 mark. Now, they may show the ability to get to 85-88 wins, and if they can, the NL West is going to be really fun to watch.
This afternoon, the Chicago Cubs found their free-agent pitcher in right-hander John Lackey. According to the marvelous Ken Rosenthal, the deal is of the two-year variety, and will pay Lackey $32-34 million. There are a few interesting things to dissect here, but right off the top it fills up the Cubs rotation, so let’s start there.
Lackey comfortably slots in behind Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester, and perhaps Kyle Hendricks, depending on how you feel about him. But given Lackey’s veteran presence, let’s assume that he will be the Cubs number-three starter, with Hendricks and Jason Hammel slotting in behind him. That’s a solid rotation. It has star power, and it has legitimate depth in Travis Wood and prospect Carl Edwards. All of the five starters project to be worth at least 2 WAR. Of the remaining free-agent pitchers, Lackey was tied with Wei-Yen Chen for fifth in projected 2016 WAR. Lackey was significantly cheaper than Zack Greinke or Johnny Cueto, and comes with a longer track record than Hisashi Iwakuma or Chen. In other words, it’s the sort of signing you would expect from Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer and Co.
This also marks the second time that Epstein has signed Lackey, as he was still in command of the Red Sox baseball operations when Boston brought Lackey aboard in December of 2009. It’s not hard to see why Epstein would have a fondness for the Texas-bred righty. Aside from 2012, which he missed due to injury, Lackey has tossed 160 innings or more in every year since 2003. And in most of those years, he’s been average or better. In his first full season in Anaheim, he only logged 1.9 WAR, as he hadn’t ratcheted up his strikeout percentage quite yet. In 2008, some trouble with the long ball limited him to 1.4 WAR. And then in 2011, when he pitched hurt, he logged a paltry 0.9 WAR, though in retrospect it was sort of amazing that he was pitching at all. In the other nine full seasons of his career, he’s been worth at least 2.4 WAR, and at least 3.1 in seven of the nine.
Over the last year-plus, he proved that he was completely adaptable to the National League. In fact, little seems to faze Lackey outside of boneheaded plays by his fielders or being pulled out of a game mid-inning. On Slack, Jeff Sullivan described him as “boringly consistent,” and if you don’t believe him, just look at Lackey’s average fastball velocity — 91.5-91.7 mph for each of the last four years. Over the last two years, Lackey has junked his slider for a two-seamer (at least, according to PITCHf/x), but other than that he’s not much different.
If you’re thinking that $32 million is a lot of coin for a pitcher entering his age-37 season, well, I suppose you’re not technically wrong. And if we were to look up the pitchers who netted contracts of $10+ million per year heading into their age-37 season, it’d probably be a short list. But if you think Lackey is between a two-and-three-win pitcher and that a win on the market costs between $7 and $8 million, well then this is a pretty fair deal given our current market conditions. And perhaps there is some extra synergy in Lackey being back with old friend Jon Lester. Epstein and Hoyer clearly aren’t afraid of another chicken and beer scandal.
The Cubs don’t necessarily need to be done working on their starting rotation. But if they are done, they should not only have a good starting rotation, but a stable one. Contrast that to the health question marks in that rotation to the southwest (Adam Wainwright, Carlos Martinez, Jaime Garcia) and the defections in that rotation to the east (A.J. Burnett and J.A. Happ) and the Cubs may just head to spring training as the favorites in the National League Central.
In Major League Baseball, the market tends to correct itself as clubs gain greater knowledge of players and their value. If aging players are less successful, the market for that group might slow a bit. Bullpen arms become more or less desirable depending on their scarcity. Increased revenues tend to move everyone up the pay scale. It is important to understand how and when to make adjustments in value as run-scoring environments, finances, and aging patterns change.
That is all well and good for those who run organizations and those who follow the game closely, but the arbitration process is much less nuanced. The non-tendering of contracts to Pedro Alvarez and Chris Carter, along with the trade of Mark Trumbo, are all the result of a failure to adjust — within the arbitration process, specifically — as the market slowly corrects for the overpayment of defensively- (and sometimes offensively-) limited home run hitters whose overall effectiveness has dimmed.
The arbitration process tends to favor the traditional stats that place like FanGraphs have tried to de-emphasize. Closers get big paydays in arbitratio, regardless of overall performance. As a result, the St. Louis Cardinals opted to let Steve Cishek go instead of moving to arbitration where he would receive a salary of around $7 million. Home runs and RBI tend to get paid as well, causing an overpayment for those players who rack up those numbers, but have big deficiencies in other areas.
