White Sox Get Frazier in Three-Way Trade with Reds, Dodgers

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December 16, 2015

After rumors of a Dodgers-White Sox trade surfaced earlier, the teams have now completed a trade, but it’s really a White Sox-Reds trade that the Dodgers helped facilitate. Overall, the deal will send Todd Frazier to Chicago; Micah Johnson, Trayce Thompson and Francelis Montas go to LA, and Jose Peraza, Scott Schebler, and Brandon Dixon end up in Cincinnati.

The biggest name in this deal is third baseman Todd Frazier. The 29-year-old hit 35 home runs with a line of .255/.309/.498 this past season, for a solid 114 wRC+, leading to his second straight four-win season. Frazier avoided arbitration last season with a two year, $12 million contract that will pay him just $7.5 million this season. After this season, the White Sox will have one more season of control on Frazier as he hits his final year of arbitration eligibility.

The White Sox, earlier in the offseason, made a trade for Brett Lawrie — and, at the time, he appeared ticketed for third base — but with the addition of Frazier, he will presumably move back to second base, where has considerable experience. The White Sox were one of the most active teams in last year’s offseason, but a stars and scrubs-like roster hurt them as they received little-to-no production from multiple positions including both second base and shortstop.

Micah Johnson was the presumptive starter at second base this season, making him expendable in the trade. Trayce Thompson was set to get decent playing time in an outfield including Avisail Garcia and Melky Cabrera in the corners, making the corner spots still something of a hole for the White Sox while the Dodgers are apparently receiving depth in both the outfield and infield. Montas was named to Kiley McDaniel’s Top-200 list entering last season:

Montas has steadily improved, with his average slider taking a big step forward this year to now flashing plus, his changeup is now enough to give him a starter’s repertoire and he still hits 100 mph at times. The question is whether his delivery and command fit as a starter and most think he ends up as a closer, but there’s still a chance he figures out a way to fit as a mid-rotation starter.

Montas made his debut in the majors last season, recording two starts and five relief appearances. In 15 innings, he struck out 20 while walking nine batters.

Jose Peraza was a part of the deal that sent Hector Olivera to the Braves and Alex Wood to the Dodgers at last season’s trade deadline. Ranked in the Top-50 at the beginning of last season, Peraza’s star had dimmed a bit at the time of the trade.

Compared to Luis Castillo or Juan Pierre early in his pro career, Peraza’s light has dimmed a bit in 2015 due to offensive questions, but he’s still an elite runner that’s near big league ready and can play multiple positions up the middle.

Scott Schebler is an outfielder who made his debut last season with the Dodgers after ranking 14th in McDaniel’s Dodgers prospect list to start the season. Dixon is a second baseman who played across three levels last season, reaching Double-A and hitting 22 home runs on the season.

The White Sox are at it again, and it remains to be seen if they are finished retooling their roster to attempt a run after a disappointing 2015 season. The Reds rebuild is continuing at full speed ahead, and the Dodgers swapped a few prospects for a few prospects they liked better; it will be interesting to see whether LA or Cincinnati made the right call on which young package is better long-term. Industry consensus right now heavily favors LA.


About That Giants Outfield

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December 16, 2015

The San Francisco Giants have made a decent amount of noise this offseason, signing two of the five biggest starting-pitching contracts in free agency this year. Bringing in Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija certainly solidifies a rotation that needed help. Last season, Madison Bumgarner, Chris Heston, and Jake Peavy made just over half (82) of the Giants’ starts and were worth about eight wins above replacement, most of that from Bumgarner. The other 80 starts came primarily from Ryan Vogelsong, Tim Hudson, Matt Cain, and Tim Lincecum, and that group was below replacement level. Bolstering the rotation makes a lot of sense for the Giants, but the team now appears unlikely to pursue a major signing for the outfield, leaving it as the team’s primary weakness.

Having just one weakness instead of two is a positive development for the Giants, but perhaps the brightest spot for the club heading into next season is not their newfound rotation depth, but the return of an emergent infield after some breakout seasons last year from Brandon Crawford, Matt Duffy, and Joe Panik. Add in Brandon Belt, and that quartet in the field more than tripled their production, going from 5.7 WAR in 2014 to 18.1 WAR this past season. The lack of pitching depth and the issues in the outfield kept the Giants out of the playoffs, along with an unusually high bar for entry — if they had won 84 games in 2014, they still would have qualified for the postseason — but their infield was amazing and should be again next year.

The graph below shows the FanGraphs Depth Chart projections for every infield in Major League Baseball (catchers included). As we might expect, the Giants rate very highly.

PROJECTED TEAM INFIELD WAR

The Chicago Cubs, with Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, and newly signed Ben Zobrist, look to be the class of MLB when it comes to the infield, but the Giants are not that far behind. There is a decent gap between the Giants and the Josh Donaldson-led Blue Jays. Unfortunately, the outfield is not quite as promising.

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Passan: White Sox/Dodgers Nearing a Big Trade

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December 16, 2015

Well, this is interesting.

The obvious guess here is that the Dodgers are shipping an outfielder to Chicago, and with a significant prospect like Montas going to LA, it would seem more likely to involve Yasiel Puig than a salary dump like Andre Ethier or Carl Crawford. Of course, David Robertson could also be a fit for the Dodgers, who already tried to trade for Aroldis Chapman, and the Dodgers are seemingly always looking to take on bad contracts to acquire prospects, so perhaps they could be taking Adam LaRoche off the White Sox hands in order to buy some more minor league inventory.

I’d imagine we’ll find out more soon. Stay tuned.


Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 12/16/15

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December 16, 2015
12:00
Dave Cameron: Alright, let’s get this chat fired up.
12:01
Dave Cameron: For those who haven’t seen it, Jeff Passan just noted on Twitter than the Dodgers and White Sox are nearing a trade that would send CHW’s top pitching prospect Frankie Montas to LA. It could be lots of things, but Yasiel Puig seems to be the most obvious thing that LAD would want to move for young talent that would interest CHW.
12:01
Dave Cameron: So we can speculate about that, or talk about other off-season stuff.
12:01
JL: Where does Cespedes land? Tigers? Nationals? Rangers? Somewhere completely random?
12:02
Dave Cameron: Tigers, in an Ilitch-engineered deal in January, probably makes the most sense. If they’re really going for it, they’re a player or two short, and he’d help them a lot. No point pushing in halfway.
12:02
Ringtone Composer: Over the past 4 weeks, have the Braves made themselves much better in the long run?

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FG on Fox: Johnny Cueto’s Calculated Gamble

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December 16, 2015

On Monday, the San Francisco Giants reportedly agreed to terms with free agent starter Johnny Cueto on a six-year contract that will guarantee him $130 million, a pretty nice haul for a pitcher who struggled significantly in the second half of the year. And when you factor in that Cueto also obtained an opt-out after the second year, which could allow him to re-enter the market after the 2017 season and land a significant raise if he pitches well over his next 400 innings, this deal offers a lot of reasons for Cueto and his representatives to be happy with how the market has developed.

However, it’s interesting to see Cueto sign with the Giants for $130 million, when just a few weeks prior, his agent had publicly stated that a reported six year, $120 million offer from the Diamondbacks was a “low offer for the market”. In fact, his agent made it sound like they were going to be aiming quite a bit higher.

“It was a low offer for the market,” Dixon said. “We didn’t have to think hard to reject that offer. Arizona wanted to do something fast, but we didn’t want to take something below market value for a No. 1 starter, and with the recent events, I think that time gave us the reason.”

Agents are known for public comments that may not be reflective of reality, since their job is to get as much money for their clients as possible, not be objective sources of information. But in light of Dixon’s comments, it’s worth noting that Cueto actually took a smaller guaranteed income by accepting the Giants’ offer than he would have received if he had taken the Diamondbacks’ offer, due to the very different tax climates in California and Arizona.

For high-earners like Cueto, California has the highest marginal tax rate of any state in the country, coming in at 13.3% of all income over $1 million. Meanwhile, Arizona has one of the lowest tax rates in the country, with their highest marginal rate topping out at 4.5%. Of course, the tax code is complex, and it’s never just as simple as looking at the top marginal rate to figure out equivalent offers between teams in different states.

Read the rest on Fox Sports.


The Cubs as the Best Team In Baseball

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December 16, 2015

It’s my belief that, right now, the Cubs are the best team in baseball. Don’t worry, you’ll have a chance to express your own belief at the end. I know that we’ve been a little heavy on Cubs posts. It’s not entirely our fault — they’ve been active. I also know it’s not super important who looks like the best team in baseball in the middle of December. There’s offseason left, and there’s spring training to go, and countless things could change. It also happens to be my belief the Cubs will remain the best team in baseball as we reach Opening Day, but this is about things as they are. Right now, literally as you read this, provided you read this somewhere close to the publishing date.

I’m going to lay out why I think the Cubs are the best. I’m also going to try to lay out why they might not be, despite all the stuff in the first part. It’s not about being contradictory — it’s about trying to cover everything. At the bottom of the post, you’ll respond to a very simple question. We’ll see which argument you find most convincing.

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2016 ZiPS Projections – Texas Rangers

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December 16, 2015

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Texas Rangers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Cincinnati / Kansas City / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / Toronto.

Batters
The Texas Rangers outperformed their Base Runs record by seven wins this past season, resembling on the peripheral level more a league-average club than a division-winning one. That’s not to discredit their accomplishment, at all. It does, however, begin to explain how a team that won 88 games and returns literally all its positional starters — how such a team could look so ordinary by way of computer algorithms.

It certainly isn’t an advantage for Texas that they have a considerable portion of their payroll allocated to four merely decent players. Elvis Andrus, Shin-Soo Choo, Prince Fielder, and Josh Hamilton are expected to earn roughly $88 million collectively this year and yet to produce fewer than six wins as a group. That’s approximately $15 million per win — or nearly double the current estimated win valuation of the market.*

None of this, of course, is to impugn Adrian Beltre, who famously once played both Daedalus and Icarus in a community theater production of Ovid’s Metamorphoses.

*Note: I’ve neglected to mention here that a portion of Fielder’s and nearly all of Hamilton’s contracts are being subsidized by other clubs. Naturally, that changes the dollars-per-win calculus. What it doesn’t change is the projections themselves.

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Job Posting: Boston Red Sox Baseball Operations Analytics Intern

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December 16, 2015

Position: Boston Red Sox Baseball Operations Analytics Intern

Location: Boston

Description:
The Boston Red Sox are seeking a Baseball Operations intern with a focus on analytics for the 2016 calendar year. The internship will provide exposure to all departments within baseball operations. Applicants must have a passion for baseball, strong work ethic, excellent communication skills, attention to detail, and the ability to work quickly while balancing multiple priorities.

Candidates must be available to start by the end of January and continue in the position until mid-December. The position reports to the Director of Major League Operations. Please note that such positions have the potential to lead to a full-time employment offer, but such an offer is not guaranteed.

Responsibilities:

  • Statistical modeling and quantitative analysis of a variety of data sources, for the purpose of player evaluation, strategic decision-making, decision analysis, etc.
  • Ad hoc queries and quantitative research in support of general Baseball Operations tasks.
  • Overseeing daily updates to our baseball information system.
  • Monitoring the quality of external data feeds.
  • Staying current on publicly available baseball research.
  • Various game-day duties, as necessary.
  • General intern duties.

Qualifications:

  • A strong foundation in mathematics, statistics, computer science and/or engineering.
  • Strong baseball knowledge.
  • Experience using SQL.
  • Familiarity with current baseball research and analysis.
  • Familiarity with a statistical software package such as R.
  • Proficiency in Microsoft Office (Excel, PowerPoint, Word).
  • Ability to work evening, weekend, and holiday hours is a must.
  • Other programming and database skills are a plus.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
To apply, please send an email to analyticsresume@redsox.com with the subject “2016 Analytics Internship”. Please include a resume and answers to the following questions:

  1. What computer programming experience do you have?
  2. What is a project that you believe would add substantial value to a baseball team? Please describe the project and provide an overview of how you would complete it.

Job Postings: Texas Rangers Baseball Systems Architect & Quantitative Analyst

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December 16, 2015

Just to be clear, there are two positions here.

Position: Texas Rangers Architect, Baseball Systems

Location: Arlington, Texas

Description:
The Architect, Baseball Systems will expand and maintain our existing proprietary software for baseball operations.

Responsibilities:

  • Maintain and expand our internal web site, reports and internal applications.
  • Designing and maintaining the database.
  • Import, transformation and maintenance of multiple complex data feeds.
  • Work with baseball operations staff to identify requirements.
  • Support end users.

Qualifications:

  • Five to 10 years professional software development experience (preference for full stack .NET developers).
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher in computer science preferred.
  • Excellent written and verbal communication skills.
  • Familiarity with current statistical concepts in baseball.
  • Passion for the game.
  • Experience in any of the following are helpful: C#, Microsoft SQL Server (development, data design, query tuning), ASP.Net web forms, SQL Server Reporting Services, SQL Server Integration Services, jQuery, Tableau.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
It is a big plus if you can include or link to work samples a big plus when you apply for this position. Please apply here.

…

Position: Texas Rangers Quantitative Analyst

Location: Arlington, Texas

Description:
The Quantitative Analyst will create statistical models and applications and assist in general research and development work for Baseball Operations.

Responsibilities:

  • Develop statistical models; import, export and transform data as necessary to prepare the data sets for these models.
  • Develop automation, applications and reports to put models into production for users.
  • Conduct general research and development.
  • Work with baseball operations staff to prioritize areas of research along with developing a deeper understanding of the game.

Qualifications:

  • One-three years’ experience in a similar role preferred (inside or outside of baseball).
  • Bachelor’s degree in Statistics, Data Science, Engineering or similar fields or equivalent work experience.
  • Proficiency in SQL and relational databases (we use Microsoft SQL Server).
  • Proficiency in R or similar statistics packages.
  • Proficiency in SQL Server Reporting Services, Tableau or other visualization or reporting tools a plus.
  • Passion for baseball.
  • Strong understanding of baseball statistics and strategy, familiarity with current sabermetric research.
  • Strong written and verbal communications skills.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
It is a big plus if you can include or link to work samples a big plus when you apply for this position. Please apply here.


The Orioles’ Secret Weapon

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December 15, 2015

There’s a pitcher you might not have ever heard of. Or maybe you have heard of him, but you haven’t thought about him much. He did spend a chunk of last year in the major leagues, and now, let me explain him to you, using a series of facts.

The pitcher threw his fastball about as hard as Andrew Miller, and he also threw strikes about as often as Andrew Miller. He worked in the zone about as much as David Price, yet hitters didn’t like to swing at those pitches. He walked batters around the same rate as Corey Kluber, but he struck batters out around the same rate as Jake McGee, because he had a lower contact rate than Jose Fernandez, and a comparable swinging-strike rate to Noah Syndergaard. That’s how you wind up with a K-BB% like Dellin Betances, an ERA- like Zack Greinke, an FIP- better than Aroldis Chapman, and an xFIP- like Kenley Jansen. Last year, 476 pitchers threw at least 25 innings. The mystery pitcher performed as one of the very, very best.

He yielded the 18th-lowest batting average. Also the ninth-lowest OBP, and the 44th-lowest slugging percentage, despite working in the American League and in a hitter-friendly environment. So he gave up the 17th-lowest OPS. All these numbers are based on a pretty small sample. Yet all these numbers are impossibly encouraging.

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