With October approaching (I am as surprised as anyone by that fact), awards season is starting to shape up, which means the writers on these fine digital pages are doing their best to break down who should win and who should not. As I quite fortunately find myself to be one of those writers, I have some thoughts, especially as they relate to the Cy Young. Today, my hope is that you will join me on a journey of sorts into some preconceived notions of Cy Young benchmarks and barriers.

First, an introduction to our candidates. In the American League, it looks as if anyone will have a hard time beating David Price, as Sonny Gray’s most recent starts — one of which was the shortest of his young career — have been sub-par, and Dallas Keuchel also had one of the worst starts of his career recently, coughing up nine earned runs to the Texas Rangers. Chris Sale and Chris Archer also merit some consideration, as well.

In the National League, it’s unsurprisingly a battle between permanent fixture Clayton Kershaw, teammate Zack Greinke, and relative newcomer Jake Arrieta. That one is arguably tougher to call, though batted-ball mastermind Tony Blengino tried his hand at it last week.

All of this leads to an abstract thought I had recently. Let’s say we find ourselves with two leading candidates for one league’s Cy Young, both possessing the exact same ERA and WHIP. Maybe one pitcher’s fielding-independent statistics are better (something that potentially had a hand in Corey Kluber’s Cy Young win last season), but the main difference between the two pitchers is a pretty standard measure of “success”: wins. One pitcher plays for a bad team — as is the case with Sonny Gray, for example. One of them plays for an exciting, playoff-bound team — as is the case with Dallas Keuchel.

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The current version of the Kansas City Royals are primarily known for two things: playing amazing defense and having a dominating bullpen. That combination of elite glovework and unhittable relievers carried them to the World Series a year ago, and helped them run away with the AL Central this season; they entered the month of September with 13 game lead over the second-place Twins.

But despite a pre-punched playoff ticket, September has provided plenty of reason for Kansas City fans to worry about their chances headed into October. After an 11-2 drubbing at the hands of the Mariners last night, the Royals are now just 7-13 this month, thanks to a pitching staff that apparently is coming apart at the seams. In those 20 contests, the Royals have allowed 120 runs, for an average of 6.0 runs allowed per game. Up through August 31st, they allowed just 484 runs over 130 games, or 3.8 runs allowed per game.

This month, opponents are hitting .290/.364/.474 against the Royals; only the Phillies and A’s are allowing opponents to do more damage in September. And it’s not just a couple of guys; almost the entire staff is getting lit up.

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“Until you step outside of it, you don’t realize how special it is,” Barry Zito said on the field in Oakland, nostalgia in his voice and touch of grey his hair. He was reminiscing about what it was like to have three homegrown young starters peaking at the same time, back when he joined Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder in dominating the American League.

The parallels in Cincinnati are not immediately obvious, nor are they perfectly similar. Anthony DeSclafani, Raisel Iglesias, and John Lamb probably won’t turn into the next Big Three, and they aren’t necessarily all homegrown in the stricter definition of the word.

And yet… standing there on that field, listening to Zito talk and thinking of writing this piece, a little dreaming was possible. Could those three young Reds be the backbone of a strong staff as soon as next year? Just look at them sitting there atop the rookie leaderboards.

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Pete Mackanin had the “interim” tag removed yesterday from his job title. The rebuilding Phillies extended the 64-year-old skipper’s contract through next season, with a club option for 2017. Mackanin has been at the helm since Ryne Sandberg unexpectedly stepped down in late June. The team has gone 30-46 under his leadership.

This is Mackanin’s first full-time managerial job at the big-league level. Prior to Philadelphia, he served in an interim capacity in Pittsburgh (2005) and Cincinnati (2007). He previously interviewed for openings in Houston, Boston and Chicago (Cubs), only to be bypassed.

Earlier this month, Mackanin sat down to share some of his thoughts on running a ball club. Our conversation was by no means comprehensive – we only touched on a few of his philosophies – but it does offer a snapshot of Mackanin’s mindset.

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Mackanin on playing the kids: “When I make out a lineup here, I don’t necessarily make out a lineup that I feel gives us the best chance to win. I have to play players we want to get a look at. It’s part of the job right now. With the team we have, we need to find out about players – we have to see what some of these guys are capable of. For instance, Darnell Sweeney joined us recently and I knew nothing about him. If I’m playing for a division title, I probably wouldn’t have put him in the lineup, but under these circumstances, he’s playing. And he’s made a good impression.”

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Toronto | 19:07 ET
Nova (75.2 IP, 118 xFIP-) vs. Stroman (12.0 IP, 100 xFIP-)
Over two starts and 12.0 innings, right-hander Marcus Stroman has recorded a strikeout rate of just 10.6%, which figure would represent the lowest such mark among all qualified pitchers by three-tenths of a percentage point (just behind teammate Mark Buehrle). Despite that, he’s also produced a league-average expected fielding-independent (xFIP) mark over those same two appearances. The uncomplicated, but still noteworthy, explanation: a ground-ball rate (68.4%) that would rank first among all qualifiers. What Stroman has done, in other words, is to compensate for one negative extreme by means of a positive one — like a profoundly ugly person who develops a strong sense of humor or a weblogger who, lacking facility with the language, develops the ability to manufacture GIFs of Marcus Stroman.

Apropos of nothing else, here’s footage of Stroman from his last start, throwing a fastball with considerable arm-side run:

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

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Just the other day, Johnny Cueto turned in his first good start in over a month. Though the Royals have been in position to coast to the playoffs for weeks, seeing Cueto actually get batters out came as a tremendous relief, an indication that the ace is getting back to being an ace with October around the bend. Maybe just as interesting as what Cueto did on the field were conversations that took place off of it. As Andy McCullough wrote, Cueto felt like he needed to express something about Salvador Perez.

Part of his trouble, Cueto explained to the team, was he tries to throw exactly toward the catcher’s glove. Perez often set the target high in the zone, intending to lower his mitt with the pitch. But the optics challenged Cueto, which may have led to him spinning a series of cutters and change-ups at the waist of opposing hitters in recent weeks.

This post will consist of observations, and nothing more. I want to lay that out for you now. Cueto wanted his catcher to behave a little differently behind the plate, and though that’s a difficult thing to actually analyze, it grabbed my attention because it’s an unusual thing to hear. So I’m drawn to trying to explore this. Feel free to explore with me, or alternatively remain in the comforts of home. Explorers frequently die.

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Episode 597
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio, during which edition he’s compelled by the host to belabor a point.

This edition of the program is sponsored by Draft, the first truly mobile fantasy sports app. Compete directly against idiot host Carson Cistulli by clicking here.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 45 min play time.)

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Ben and Sam banter about the Brewers’ hiring of David Stearns, then talk about why timing is everything when it comes to tags, interim managers and Weezer and Wes Anderson.

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