Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Chicago NL at San Francisco | 22:15 ET
Arrieta (168.0 IP, 74 xFIP-) vs. Cain (47.2 IP, 123 xFIP-)
At some point during his 2006 conversation with Ricky Gervais — or actually maybe during another conversation with a different person in a different year — professional misanthrope Larry David claims that he regrets immediately every commitment he makes as soon has he’s made it. Every future obligation represents not an opportunity for David, but rather a looming nightmare, the prospect of which weighs heavily on his mind until it’s either fulfilled or, preferably, canceled.

David’s apprehension towards the future isn’t irrelevant to the Chicago Cubs’ current situation within the developing postseason landscape. As noted by a reader here yesterday, the club possesses simultaneously a high probability of qualifying for the postseason while, simultaneously, almost no chance of winning the NL Central. They are, in other words, almost certain to appear in the one-game wild-card playoff. So while the club’s remaining regular-season games aren’t precisely immaterial, they appear to have little consequence relative to the appointment the Cubs have made for Wednesday, October 7.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Basically All of Them?

Read the rest of this entry »

When faced with batters on base, Milwaukee Brewers righty Taylor Jungmann goes to his sinker more and throws lower in the zone. He hasn’t given up a home run on the sinker, and the pitch produces ground balls nearly three-quarters of the time. So why doesn’t Jungmann go to the sinker more often?

“What makes the sinker better is that I don’t throw it as much,” Jungmann told me before a game against San Francisco. “It makes it that much more effective because they aren’t looking for it. If I threw it every single pitch, my four-seamer would be better.”

Right now, Jungmann has found the right uses for his sinker. If he used it more, he’d get less value from each additional sinker. This is what makes evaluating pitches by their peripherals so difficult, especially in small samples. Sure, Mat Latos has gotten six whiffs on 24 changeups this year — for a percentage that’s almost twice the average changeup whiff rate — but that doesn’t make the pitch good.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam talk to Amazin’ Avenue’s Jeff Paternostro about Mets player development and the mysterious origins of unexpected ace Jacob deGrom.

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Hello and welcome to a relatively easy post to generate on the other side of a week off. You might already be familiar with the idea, so if that’s the case, then once again, you’re invited to just skip ahead to the table and move on from there, after having interpreted it yourself. You are your own boss; you read however many words you choose.

This is the third post in what I guess is a four-post series. The first one came when the regular season was about one-quarter old. At the very beginning of July, I did this again, when the season was about one-half old. Now the season is about three-quarters old, so we can check in one more time. Which teams have benefited the most from favorable strike zones? Which teams have paid the greatest penalty, on the other hand? If you accept that all the information comes with some error bars, this is simple. Increasingly simple, as I run these numbers more and more.

Read the rest of this entry »

This past weekend, the Toronto Blue Jays swept the Los Angeles Angels in a three-game series, dominating the Halos by a combined score of 36-10. The series represented a few important points: not only did the three wins vault the Jays over the New York Yankees for sole possession of first place in the AL East, but it also featured a matchup of the current favorites in the AL MVP race, Mike Trout and Josh Donaldson. While Trout went 3-10 during the series (all three hits coming in the series finale), Donaldson showed why he is beginning to be viewed as a possible contender for the league’s MVP, going 8 for 13 with a home run, four doubles and nine RBI.

Up until this season — even up until a month ago, in fact — the idea of Donaldson being a serious front-runner in an MVP race would have been viewed as very optimistic. He’s been in the conversation as one of the best overall position players in baseball since his breakout in 2013 (his 21.2 Wins Above Replacement since the start of the 2013 season is second only to Trout’s 25.2), but a strict comparison with Trout in the past probably would have been seen as a reach. That has little to do with Donaldson: Trout is the best player in baseball, and a normal year for Trout would be the best year of basically anyone else’s career.

Then this past offseason’s trade from Oakland to Toronto occurred, and Donaldson showed that the move to the Rogers Centre was most likely going to pay serious dividends for his statistics. Early on in this season, it became evident he might be tailoring his swing to pull more fly balls when he was playing at home, resulting in an astounding power increase that has showed no signs of slowing down in the ensuing months. His home/road splits are more pronounced than they ever have been, showing the influence of his home park’s friendliness to hitters — and his ability to exploit it:

Read the rest on Just a Bit Outside.

When you think pitching and greatness it’s unlikely you think of Mike Fiers. Well Friday, Mike Fiers threw a no-hitter against the Los Angeles Dodgers, so in your face. Of course, I’m kidding. No-hitters are fluky events by nature, and though the game’s greats have thrown them, so have many of the game’s not-so-greats. For example, the list of pitchers who have thrown no-hitters includes Joe Cowley, Mike Warren, and Jim Colborn, and excludes Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez*, Curt Schilling, Greg Maddux, and Robin Roberts. But still, pitching nine innings of baseball without giving up a single hit is a feat worthy of recognition and by golly we sure are recognizing it.

*Martinez threw nine perfect innings on June 3, 1995, but allowed a lead-off double in the 10th inning.

But there is controversy! You may have heard that Fiers has been accused of cheating while throwing his no-no. Who has made these accusations? The world’s morality police, also known as the internet, of course! So what “evidence” is there that Fiers cheated?

https://twitter.com/CaseyySheehann/status/634919577567100928

Oh. Whoops.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ben and Sam banter about Joc Pederson and answer emails about Madison Bumgarner, on-field celebrations, the Triple Crown, holding runners, and more.

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

For his career, Nathan Eovaldi has a below-average strikeout rate. He’s been a little bit worse than league average by ERA, and a little bit better than league average by FIP, but even average is a strange outcome for a guy with a top-ten fastball by velocity.

Take a look at how much of an outlier Eovaldi is in graphical form. That’s him highlighted, against all starters that have thrown at least 1000 fastballs since 2007.

Read the rest of this entry »