Did Drew Hutchison Really Change His Slider?

If you look at the movement charts on Drew Hutchison’s slider, it seems obvious: the Blue Jays’ righty starter had more drop late last year, when he was going well. This year, the pitch is harder and firmer, and he’s not going well. So he’s missing that slider he had, right?

Well, maybe not. We had Craig Edwards point out that Hutch might actually need his best fastball to succeed. And then we have the pitcher himself telling us that no, he hasn’t done anything to change his slider. “Every time I throw my slider I try to get good depth on it,” he told me before a game with the Athletics this week.

But the pitcher said this just moments before he admitted to using the slider differently. Which might actually have something to do with his struggles this year. Funny how that works.

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Scouting The Prospects In the Zobrist/Papelbon Trades

In case you missed it, I’ve broken down the prospects in the Tyler Clippard (A’s to Mets) deal and the Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies to Blue Jays) trade. I’ll catch up here on yesterday’s deals, breaking down the prospects involved in the Ben Zobrist (A’s to Royals), Jonathan Papelbon (Phillies to Nationals), David DeJesus (Rays to Angels), and David Murphy (Indians to Angels) trades.

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NERD Game Scores: An Astros-Angels Spiritual Exercise

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles AL at Houston | 20:10 ET
Richards (116.1 IP, 100 xFIP-) vs. McCullers (69.1 IP, 90 xFIP-)
With Houston’s 10-5 victory over Anaheim last night, the two clubs are now tied for the AL West lead and possess mostly similar odds of winning the division. Tonight’s game features an even more robust pitching matchup in Richards and McCullers, each of whom has produced an average fastball velocity greater than 94 mph this season. The appeal of the contest is such that one would like time to pass at a more rapid rate than usual between now and 8pm ET — and return to a normal speed just moments before first pitch. One would like a lot of things, however, which will never obviously materialize. Perhaps today is best utilized becoming acquainted with that difficult truth.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Radio.

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Projecting the Prospects in the Ben Zobrist Trade

The Royals have struck again. First, they pried Johnny Cueto from the Reds for young arms Brandon Finnegan, John Lamb and Cody Reed. Now they’ve landed Ben Zobrist from the Athletics for two more pitching prospects — Sean Manaea and Aaron Brooks. Awful lot of pitching prospects changing hands these days. Anyway, here’s what the stats say about the young arms headed to Oakland.

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Mets Continue to Act Like Small-Market Team

The New York Mets have been one of the more active teams leading up to the trade deadline, trading for Juan Uribe, Kelly Johnson, and Tyler Clippard, but the Troy TulowitzkiJose Reyes/Jeff Hoffman trade between the Toronto Blue Jays and Colorado Rockies has raised questions about the moves New York hasn’t made. The Mets are in contention and are making moves in attempt to better their team. That’s true. But when a player (in Tulowitzki) after whom the Mets, or at least their fans, have been pining for is moved for a decent, but not colossal package, and the other big-name player in the trade (in Reyes) was once a fan favorite and requires only a two-year commitment after 2015 — and would immediately be one of the best position players on the Mets if added to the team — a question is asked.

The question: where were the Mets?

The snarky answer: counting their money.

The more technically accurate answer: paying down owners’ debts.

The Tulowitzki trade might not be the best example of lost opportunities for the Mets, as the Rockies were at least paying lip-service to Tulowitzki’s request not to be traded to New York. Unfortunately for Mets fans, however, their other transactions indicate that the snark-filled answer is not that far from the truth. In both Mets trades, the club negotiated for a portion of the remaining salaries to be paid by the Atlanta Braves and even the perpetually cash-strapped Oakland Athletics.

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Nationals Reward Drew Storen Breakout With Jonathan Papelbon

Among the bright spots for the Nationals this year has been the emergence of Drew Storen. Already an effective reliever, Storen tweaked his breaking ball and became something of a strikeout machine. Instead of sitting down two of every 10 batters, Storen has bumped that up to three out of 10, succeeding as the closer for a first-place but somehow still disappointing team. As a reward for his step forward, the Nationals have demoted Storen out of the closer role, agreeing to pick up Jonathan Papelbon and everything that comes with him.

For a straight swap, this one’s a little complicated. The Nationals needed to convince Papelbon to come, and there was the matter of his $13-million vesting option. The option was almost sure to vest, but the Nationals opted to guarantee it for $11 million. That gives Papelbon some certainty, yet he’s also been given other certainty: the right to close, down the stretch. Technically, I suppose, the Nationals could go back on their word. And if Papelbon struggles, well, the Nationals would be stupid to leave him there. But this is without question the interesting thing. A team with a closer added a closer.

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Angels Stockpile Platoon Outfielders

Yesterday, the Angels picked up Shane Victorino to serve as the right-handed portion of an LF platoon, presumably spelling Matt Joyce against left-handers. Today, though, the team imported two left-handed part-time outfielders, making Joyce particularly redundant. In a pair of moves reported at virtually the same time, the Angels have acquired David Murphy from the Indians and David DeJesus from the Rays.

Murphy and DeJesus are basically the same player; both are low-strikeout, gap-power types that provide roughly league average offense and are best used in part-time roles. For his career, Murphy has hit .274/.335/.433, while DeJesus is at .276/.351/.415. DeJesus is the better defender, so I’d guess that he’ll end up splitting left field with Victorino, while Murphy will serve as the strong side of the Angels new DH platoon, sharing time with C.J. Cron.

Certainly, neither of these acquisitions are major upgrades, but simply having decent performances from LF/DH will be big steps up from what the Angels have gotten from those positions this year. With the Angels making a strong run towards a playoff appearance, these marginal gains could end up having an impact in October.

To acquire the pair of platoon outfielders, they sent Eric Stamets to the Indians and Eduar Lopez to the Rays. Neither one was included in Kiley McDaniels write-up of the Angels top 19 prospects, though Stamet did warrant a comment in the others-of-note section. Here’s what Kiley wrote about him in the spring:

SS Eric Stamets – He’s an easy plus defender and runner and he’ll be in Triple-A next year, but the bat is light and there’s very little power, so the upside is utility guy and he may be more of an emergency, glove-first type.

Lopez is a 20 year old who hasn’t made it out of rookie ball yet, and has put up a 5.03 FIP in 33 innings this year. Suffice it to say that he wasn’t likely to appear on any top prospect lists next year either.

So the Angels basically got two decent part-time big leaguers for nothing of real value. These aren’t the sexiest additions of the week, but they should improve an Angels team that needed these upgrades, and they come at essentially no cost.


FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 7/28/15

5:45
Paul Swydan:

Hi everybody! Jeff is incognito tonight, so it will just be me, and you, and you, and you, and … well all of you!

See you at 9 pm ET. It’s gonna be a good night!

9:03
Paul Swydan: OK guys, well the stupidest replay challenge ever just happened, so it seems like a good time to start chatting!

9:03
Comment From hscer
But I don’t WANNA root for Papelbon!!!

9:03
Paul Swydan: Yes, but do you want to be a pirate?

9:04
Paul Swydan: (that’s a Seinfeld joke, for you kids out there)

9:04
Comment From The Cincinnati Kid
Time to make up for your preseason bold predictions: list 3 BOLD predictions for the trade deadline.

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The Best Get Better: Royals Nab Zobrist from Oakland

Our depth charts haven’t updated to show the details of the trade just yet, and those feed the projections, which feed the playoff odds. And the Royals have the second-best playoff odds in baseball right now at 97.4%.

Soon they will update to reflect that the Royals just went and got the available bat that fits their team best in Ben Zobrist from the Athletics. The cost may end up being high — the Athletics confirmed in a press release that Sean Manea is headed to Oakland, making the Royals’ top prospect the fourth lefty pitcher the team has spent on this year’s chances — but the reward, and the fit, is obvious.

Second base was the Royals’ worst position, and Zobrist can play their second-worst position (Right Field) well, too. Between the two positions, the newcomer is projected to be worth nearly a win and a half for his team. Between Omar Infante and Alex Rios, our projections have them worth around a half-win to the Royals.

But the Royals get better than a win better once you look further into the team dynamics and postseason roster choices.

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Rosenthal: Royals to Acquire Ben Zobrist

With the acquisition of Johnny Cueto over the weekend, the Royals got themselves a legitimate #1 starter for the postseason. Today, they’ve reportedly turned their attention to upgrading at second base.

While Ben Zobrist isn’t the defensive asset he was earlier in his career, he remains one of the best hitting middle infielders in baseball, running a 125 wRC+ while posting the lowest strikeout rate of his career. Zobrist might be slowing down in the field, but there was no better way for the Royals to upgrade their offense than by swapping Zobrist in for Omar Infante.

Over the rest of the season, Zobrist projects for about a +1.5 WAR, while the Royals were projected to get just +0.3 WAR out of some combination of Infante, Christian Colon, and Dustin Coleman. Zobrist might spend some time in the outfield as well, but he should add something like one expected win to the Royals ledger over the remainder of the regular season.

Of course, the Royals already have the AL Central all but won, so the marginal value of that win isn’t particularly high. Like Cueto, Zobrist was acquired for what he can do in the postseason, and the team will certainly be significantly stronger with his presence in the line-up instead of Infante.

No precise word on the return yet, but Jeff Passan notes that the A’s are getting “two pitchers”. We’ll have a full post on the trade when the details are known.