Paul Sporer FanGraphs Chat – 7/8/15

11:59
Paul Sporer: Hey everybody, we’ll get going very shortly. I’m relieving Dave Cameron today, though it’ll be more the traditional 1-inning use (i.e. 60-90 minutes of chatting) as opposed to my normal multi-inning relief chats (multiple hours) just bc of scheduling.

12:00
Comment From Jon
Hey Paul! Do you like any of these RPs for save speculation? Will Smith, Tazawa, Soriano, Strop, Jim Johnson, Delabar, Cecil, Hudson, Burgos, Siegrist

12:00
Paul Sporer: Smith is very interesting if KRod is moved (and he should be). Otherwise, I’m looking at Tazawa for a similar reason and Hudson as a long-shot sleeper-type

12:00
Comment From Jon
Which side do you like in a keeper? Polanco+ AJ Ramos or Odor + McCullers

12:01
Paul Sporer: That’s not bad, but I’d lean the first side

12:01
Comment From AL Pitching Coach
It’s Paul!!! What an unexpected treat for Wednesday! I’m in an AL-only league looking to scoop up the next impact SP to be called up from the minors. Am I right in thinking the top 3 options are Jose Berrios, Brian Johnson and Luis Severino? If so, would you be so kind as to rank the three in terms of 2015 impact, as well as tell me anything you feel relevant in their regards? Your help is greatly appreciated.

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Should Billy Burns Stop Switch-Hitting?

As hard as it might be to believe right now, Oakland front office asked center fielder Billy Burns to consider ending the switch-hitter experiment and bat solely from the right side when they acquired him. “It was presented as an idea, and it wasn’t something they wanted to do during the season,” Burns admitted, but they did mention it. And it makes a little sense, since Burns came to switch-hitting in professional ball, and he slugged about 20% worse from the left side in the minors.

What’s the strangest about this revelation is that Burns has been so good from the left side in the major leagues so far. And though batting average on balls in play is complicated, and small-sample results aren’t any better when you’ve cut them in half, there might actually be some evidence that Burns is a better hitter from the left side. His approach from that side fits his tools better.

Maybe the Athletics were right. Maybe Burns should stop switch-hitting. Maybe he should only hit from the *left* side.

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NERD Game Scores: Ongoing Houston-Cleveland Series Event

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at Cleveland | 19:10 ET
Straily (4.2 IP, 75 xFIP-) vs. Bauer (97.1 IP, 109 xFIP-)
This represents the third consecutive day on which the Houston-Cleveland game has been recognized as the day’s most compelling. Please note that it is not the author’s intention to endorse either club, specifically. Indeed, what one finds here isn’t the product of the author’s own judgment, at all, but rather of a series of algorithms designed to measure the likely aesthetic appeal of a game. And consider: have algorithms ever led people astray? Do algorithms harbor hurtful biases that hurt people? Was it an algorithm which bestowed upon Rob Carroll and not the present author the academic excellence award in fifth grade in Ms. Jones’ class, and then the author’s parents were like, “You let Rob beat you? Rob Carroll? Why do you even bother living?” No, is the answer in all three cases.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

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How to Bunt for a Double

Over the past several years — going back to 2010 — there have been seven bunt doubles in Major League Baseball. Had I written this story a day ago, I would’ve said there have been six. On Tuesday in Kansas City, Alcides Escobar put down a bunt for a double in the eighth inning of a game against Tampa Bay. Escobar didn’t end up scoring — and the game story was entirely about the ninth-inning hero — but this isn’t a page about game recaps. The Royals won, but I’m more interested in the hit.

What does a bunt double look like? I’ve written about these a couple times before, but I do that because they’re so curious. Just off the top of your head, a bunt double doesn’t seem like it ought to be possible. Infielders always have bunts surrounded. How does one end up with a bunt double instead of a bunt single and an error? Using what video is available, let’s break down what’s probably an incomplete list of the ways. I’m sure there are other ways, but this is what recently has happened.

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Effectively Wild Episode 1184: When Would You Want Your World Series?

Ben and Sam discuss the optimal distribution of World Series wins across an average lifespan.


FanGraphs Audio: Dave Cameron, Live on Tape in DC

Episode 578
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio, during which edition he discusses FanGraphs’ recent live event in Washington, DC; Major League Baseball’s most abominable practices, ranked in order; and, finally, the looming trade deadline.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 42 min play time.)

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FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 7/7/15

5:44
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Jeff is on vacation, so you’re stuck with just me! Get your questions in, and I’ll see you at 9 pm ET.

9:00
Paul Swydan: OK, let’s do this.

9:00
Comment From Pale Hose
Did you have a good 4th, Paul?

9:00
Paul Swydan: I did. Went to a friend’s lake house, and two of the houses on his lake had dueling illegal fireworks shows. It was pretty awesome, actually.

9:01
Comment From Pale Hose
One of these years there will be a FG meetup I can make it to.

9:01
Paul Swydan: I know, I was disappointed I couldn’t make the DC one this weekend, since I set it up and all. But I heard good things!

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Wrapping Up Jon Lester’s Hit

A little over a month ago, I asked which player would get a major-league hit first: Jon Lester, or Kyle Schwarber. Lester had just set an all-time record for the longest hitless streak to begin a career. But, it’s not like the Cubs were about to remove Lester from their rotation. Schwarber, meanwhile, was a hell of a hitting prospect, but he was in the minors, so that was a hurdle. By nearly a 3-to-1 margin, the audience voted for Lester. By nearly a 3-to-1 margin, the audience was wrong. Schwarber was briefly promoted, and he registered a hit. Then he registered another seven. Lester continued making outs.

Until Monday! Monday, Lester recorded his first-ever knock, off John Lackey in the second inning of a game in which Lester, for a time, had more hits than his opponent. For Lester, it was career at-bat number 72, and career plate appearance number 79. The hitless-streak record still belongs to Lester, and there’s nothing about that to be done, but now he’s officially no longer an o’fer. And while Lester himself would’ve preferred a win to a single, just because he won’t dwell on it doesn’t mean we can’t. Here’s to dwelling.

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Rays’ Historically Heavy Bullpen Usage Key to Relevance

The Tampa Bay Rays are taking a relatively novel approach to divvying up innings between starters and relievers. Injuries have robbed the team of Alex Cobb for the season, Matt Moore and Drew Smyly for much of the year, and Jake Odorizzi for a time as well. Despite those problems, the team climbed to a 41-32 record a few weeks ago thanks to a splendid season from Chris Archer, good seasons from Odorizzi, Nate Karns — and even Erasmo Ramirez has pitched in to help the team form a solid rotation. The team has slid back to the pack in the difficult-to-decipher American League East, but still finds itself just two games back of the Yankees after losing nine of their past 12 games. Rays’ starters have been effective, but have not pitched deep into games, leaving the outcome of many games to a set of inexperienced relievers who have been shuffled between the big-league club and the minors all season long.

The Rays’ strategy appeared to be related to to two potential issues. First, the rotation was so depleted at the beginning of the year, they twice pitched bullpen games, letting Steve Geltz pitch a couple innings until his spot in the batting order. The other problem is that the deeper pitchers tend to pitch into games, the worse they tend to do. Getting a pitcher out of the game after two times through the lineup can limit damage to the starters and it can work so long as the team has a deep and effective bullpen. The Rays’ starters have averaged just 89 pitches per start, the fewest in MLB. Ted Berg noted a few weeks ago that the Rays were on pace for the second-lowest total of plate appearances (to the 2012 Colorado Rockies, who experimented with a four-man rotation) three times through the lineup in the last decade.

The graph below shows innings pitched by every bullpen this season.
2015 BULLPEN INNINGS

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The Most Productive Low-Authority Hitters of All Time

A couple weeks ago, we took a look at the most and least authoritative hitters of all time, utilizing raw contact scores, or production relative to the league on all plate appearances not resulting in a strikeout or walk. One of the reader comments suggested to take a look at the most productive low-authority hitters, and the least productive high-authority hitters. Today, we’ll look at the former, and later this week, the latter.

First of all, a review of the methodology, and some parameters. We calculate raw contact scores by stripping away the strikeouts (Ks) and walks (BBs), and applying run values to all balls in play based on the norms for that era. The results are then scaled to 100. Raw contact scores were calculated for all regulars going back to 1901. Since we don’t have access to granular batted-ball data going that far backward, we’re not going to be able to adjust for context. That context includes the effects of ballparks, individual player’s speed, and of course, luck. In a given year, that those factors might affect an individual player significantly. Over the long haul, however, raw ball-striking ability, or lack thereof, as well as contact quality, the respective frequency of line drives and popups, of weak and hard contact in general, makes the difference.

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