FanGraphs Baseball

The Atlanta Braves continued dealing from their Major League roster this week, sending Shelby Miller and relief prospect Gabe Speier to the Arizona Diamondbacks for oufielder Ender Inciarte, recent No.1 overall pick Dansby Swanson and right-handed starter prospect Aaron Blair. Miller and Inciarte are relatively established big league assets. With respect to Speier, as a low-level lefty relief prospect, he was likely not a deal-breaker in trade negotiations. Let’s take a closer look at Swanson and Blair to see what exactly the Braves added to fortify their minor league system.

Swanson was drafted first overall in June, and hasn’t really done anything since to lessen his value as a high-potential shortstop. Thanks to the Trea Turner situation last year, teams are now allowed to trade draft picks after the conclusion of the World Series in the same season. In addition to being the first amateur player drafted in 2015, I recently ranked him as the top prospect in the Diamondbacks system.

Swanson offers tons of upside on both sides of the game. Defensively he played second base at Vanderbilt until switching back to his high school position at short. To me, there is no question he can stick at shortstop long term. He is an elite defender with plenty of range and arm to handle it, buoyed by strong footwork and quick changes in direction. This video from the Fangraphs YouTube page shows some of his skills in warm ups, as well as batting practice and game swings from before the draft:

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Position: Milwaukee Brewers Baseball Research & Development Intern

Location: Milwaukee

Description:

The Milwaukee Brewers are currently seeking an Intern in the Baseball Research and Development Department. The Intern will work with the Baseball R&D, Baseball Systems departments and the entire Baseball Operations Department to deliver research and tools to improve decision making. The position requires a person who has intellectual curiosity, is a self-starter and can communicate technical and analytical concepts effectively to non-technical people. Being passionate about using data, analysis and technology to improve decision making processes is also a key differentiator. Reasonable accommodations may be made to enable individuals with disabilities to perform the essential functions. Business hours are Monday – Friday 9am – 5pm, however, candidates must be capable of working extended hours such as overtime, nights, and weekends, when necessary.

Responsibilities:

• Work with Baseball R&D and Baseball Operations to understand analytical needs and implement best practices for meeting those needs.
• Investigate emerging data sources and identify potential for predictive value and actionable insights to improve decision making.
• Develop visualizations and other mechanisms for disseminating analytical results to Baseball Operations, including consideration for less technically and analytically inclined consumers.
• Continually survey latest analytical methods and advancements in Baseball Research to apply cutting edge methods and data to problems.
• Understand current decision processes and information systems and offer enhancements and improvements.
• Ad-hoc requests for reports, visualizations and research projects during the year.

Qualifications:

• Proficiency with an analytical software platform required, R or Mathematica preferred.
• Proficiency with SQL and SQL databases required, Microsoft SQL preferred.
• Proficiency with data scripting language or ETL environment (Python, PERL, SSIS, etc.) desired.
• Proficiency with C# desired.
• Bachelor’s degree (B.S./B.A.) in Computer Science, Mathematics, Statistics, Operations Research, or related field from four-year college or university. Advanced degree or current pursuit of advanced degree in one of the areas mentioned above or a related field is desirable.
• Knowledge of Microsoft office software including Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Access, Outlook, and Internet Explorer.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
Please apply here.

The Los Angeles Angels have made a trade with the Washington Nationals to bring Yunel Escobar to the Angels in exchange for reliever Trevor Gott. The potential for a deal was first reported by Jon Morosi while the deal was confirmed by Jon Heyman and Mike DiGiovanna.

Escobar is a well-traveled individual. The Angels will be the sixth team in the last seven years for Escobar, eight if counting teams he never actually suited up with. He played the first three and a half seasons of his major league career with the Braves before the carousel began. The transactions for Escobar since 2010 are as follows:

• In July 2010, along with Jo-Jo Reyes, traded to the Toronto Blue Jays for Tyler Pastornicky, Alex Gonzalez and Tim Collins.
• In November 2012, along with Jeff Mathis, Jake Marisnick, Adeiny Hechavarria, Anthony DeSclafani, and Henderson Alvarez, traded to the Miami Marlins for Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, John Buck, and Emilio Bonifacio.
• Less than a month later, traded to the Tampa Bay Rays for Derek Dietrich.
• In January 2015, along with Ben Zobrist, traded to the Oakland Athletics for John Jaso, Daniel Robertson, and Boog Powell.
• Less than a week later, traded to the Washington Nationals for Tyler Clippard.
• Today, traded to the Los Angeles Angels for Trevor Gott.

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Ben and Sam banter about Serial and basketball, then discuss the Astros-Phillies trade and Jason Heyward.

Though baseball’s Winter Meetings seem like the playground of the front office executive, there is one other baseball man who’s ubiquitous: the manager. Semi-required to attend media events and an annual luncheon, most of the sport’s managers descend on the meetings to make their mark.

For the most part, they field questions about next year’s lineup, and try to deflect queries about front-office moves. They’ll do a little reminiscing about last year, and a little looking forward to next year. It’s a bit of a dance, since most of the reporters are looking to find out how the roster is going to look on paper, and the person in front of them is mostly in charge of putting that roster on the field.

Still, it’s a great moment to get access to many managers at once. This past August, I asked a collection of players and writers how Bruce Bochy and Joe Maddon — managers with distinctly different approaches and pasts — could both find great success. I thought it would make sense to ask the managers gathered here about their craft, as well.

What has changed about managing? How are the demands on the modern manager different than they once were?

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As you’ve certainly heard by now, the Diamondbacks swung a deal for Shelby Miller (and Gabe Speier) on Wednesday night. The trade gives the D-Backs another bona-fide starter to slot behind the recently signed Zack Greinke. The more controversial story, though, is the size of the package given up by Arizona in the deal: Aaron Blair, Ender Inciarte, and oh yeah, Dansby Swanson. In what follows, I provide a stats-driven look at the prospects involved in the trade using my KATOH projection system.

Dansby Swanson (Profile)

As last year’s first overall pick, Swanson is easily the centerpiece of the trio headed to Atlanta. Unfortunately, he logged just 99 plate appearances after signing, which isn’t enough data for me to formulate a meaningful KATOH projection. I will note, though, that Swanson hit the snot out of the ball in those 99 plate appearances. He posted equal strikeout and walk numbers with good power, which yielded a .289/.394/.483 slash line. KATOH will likely pick up on these strong suits next year, once Swanson gives me a bit more data with to work. As a shortstop, Swanson’s level of offensive ability is exciting, and there’s no reason to think he won’t develop into an excellent player. As a point of reference, consider that Andrew Benintendi put up numbers not unlike Swanson’s in his pro debut this year, and is projected for 7.0 WAR through age-28. These two players have their differences, of course, but this should give you a loose benchmark of how Swanson may grade out once he has more playing time under his belt.

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When the top 100 prospects in the game were ranked by Baseball America during the summer of 2010, Brett Lawrie was 26 spots ahead of Mike Trout. Both received a large cup of coffee in the majors during 2011 – Lawrie produced 2.6 WAR in just 46 games, while Trout put up 0.7 WAR in 40 – and there was a lot of optimism that we were witnessing two stars in the making: these were the athletic, ultra-talented position players of the future for two franchises.

Four years have passed since those brief debuts, and we know the history of both players has been quite different: Trout has produced a stunning 37.8 WAR, establishing himself as a perennial candidate for best player in baseball, while Lawrie has produced 6.2 WAR in a series of injury-interrupted, slightly above average seasons.

Being compared to Trout is unfair for basically every player in the game, but the point is this: early success doesn’t always mean continued success, mostly because baseball is about how well you adjust, not necessarily how much raw talent you have. A lot can change in the course of four seasons, especially when we’re trying to evaluate young players.

Because of the content of the four years since his debut, we view Lawrie through a certain lens: he was a top prospect, but he’s not a top major-leaguer. He’s had his chance, the thinking goes, and this is what he’s done with it. Major-league baseball is a boiling hot cauldron into which young men are thrown, and they either develop sufficiently thick skin to handle the heat or they don’t. It’s been over four seasons, and this is who he is.

Something complicates that viewpoint, however, and it’s that Lawrie will have just turned 26 when Opening Day rolls around in 2016. It might seem like he’s been around a long time, but he’s still young, and youthful players who were once top prospects are given a longer leash to figure things out. Now, after two separate opportunities to put everything together, Lawrie is headed from Oakland to the south side of Chicago in return for two relief pitchers, Zack Erwin and J.B. Wendelken.

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12:03

Eno Sarris:

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It wouldn’t be fair to say the ALDS game against the Royals was representative of the Astros’ bullpen, because that would be mean and wrong, but there was a definite lingering sense of unreliability. The Astros bullpen finished among the very best in WAR, but it was in the bottom half by WPA, and feelings mirror WPA better than anything else. Nor is this exactly a new problem — the last five years combined, the Astros bullpen is last in baseball by WPA at -22. The Mets are second-worst at -9. The bullpen hasn’t been a real strength for some time, and now the Astros’ bullpen actually matters. They’re no longer positioned to just see what sticks.

What’s the quickest way to upgrade a bullpen? Add one of the league’s true elite relievers. If he’s young and cost-controlled, all the better. Jeff Luhnow has talked a few times about wanting to diversify his group of relievers, bringing in someone overpowering. Enter Ken Giles. The Astros were circling around Giles for seemingly weeks, and now he’s about to be theirs, coming from the Phillies in exchange for Vincent Velasquez, Derek Fisher, Brett Oberholtzer, and Thomas Eshelman. In large part, it comes down to Giles and Velasquez. Giles is the proven power arm, with years of control. Velasquez is the unproven power arm, with real potential to start.

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For the second straight season, the Houston Astros have prioritized bolstering their bullpen. Last year, the club signed Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek. This winter, the team has already completed a trade for the Philadelphia Phillies bullpen ace in Ken Giles. Today, the Astros secured a piece of their playoff club long-term, bringing back Tony Sipp, as first reported by Evan Drellich. Ken Rosenthal filled in the details as Sipp’s deal is for three years and $18 million for the lefty.

Sipp spent the first five years of his career as a roughly replacement-level reliever for the Indians and Diamondbacks before catching on with Houston during the 2014 season. Since coming to the Astros, he has pitched very well, striking out roughly 30% of batters and sporting an identical 2.93 FIP in each of the last two seasons. Sipp had a ridiculous 88 left-on-base percentage last season that drove his ERA under two, and while that feat is unlikely to be matched next season, Sipp is still a good bet to keep producing. Read the rest of this entry »