FanGraphs Baseball

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Texas at Houston | 14:10 ET
Perez (65.2 IP, 104 xFIP-) vs. Keuchel (219.0 IP, 68 xFIP-)
Houston’s win Saturday (box) — on the strength largely of a combined four home runs from their middle infield alone — allowed the club to reclaim a game in the standings from Texas in the AL West and, more importantly, to retain a half-game lead over Los Angeles for the second wild-card spot. With seven dates left on their schedule, however, basically nothing has been resolved wherein the Astros’ postseason future is concerned. According to the methodology used at the site, they possess a 60% probability of qualifying for the playoffs in some form and 32% probability of advancing to the divisional series. The suspense, not unlike a cave-aged gruyère or cave-aged some other sort of comestible, is delicious.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

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Logan Forsythe isn’t sure he can explain his breakout. At least not definitively. The Tampa Bay infielder points to consistency, but that’s more byproduct than causation. He indirectly cites BABiP – “I’ve had some balls fall this year” – but it’s not as though his .323 mark is outlandish.

Opportunity might be a bigger factor. His high-water mark for seasonal plate appearances had been 350 – with the Padres in 2012 – and he’s already come to the dish 606 times. He’s taking advantage of the increased playing time. A .235/.343/.303 hitter coming into the campaign, Forsythe is slashing .282/.359/.446, and his 17 home runs are nearly double his career total. He’s been worth 4.1 WAR.

The 28-year-old second baseman was fielding a familiar question when I inquired as to why he’s having a good year. He’s been asked that a lot – not a bad problem to have – and his response suggests it’s largely the regular reps.

“The biggest thing is being consistent,” Forsythe told me. “That’s the recurring word I keep using. I expected to be that super-utility type again, but we had a few guys go down with injuries. That sucked, but it did give me an opportunity. I’ve had stints in my career where I’ve taken a simpler approach – I’ve just stayed in a routine – and the consistency of my play took over. This year reminds me of when I was playing every day in the minor leagues.”

It’s hard to say whether the Rays expected this type of production when they acquired Forsythe from San Diego in a seven-player deal prior to last season. His versatility was his calling card, but he possessed other qualities as well. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 598
Kiley McDaniel is both (a) the lead prospect analyst for FanGraphs and also (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he discusses recent debuts by Cubs prospect Carl Edwards and the other (Houston’s) Matt Duffy, the likely forthcoming debut of German-born Minnesota outfielder Max Kepler, and varying roles of the league’s assistant general managers.

This edition of the program is sponsored by Draft, the first truly mobile fantasy sports app. Compete directly against idiot host Carson Cistulli by clicking here.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 3 min play time.)

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Texas at Houston | 13:05 ET
Holland (47.1 IP, 104 xFIP-) vs. McHugh (190.0 IP, 98 xFIP-)
Now possessing merely a half-game advantage over Los Angeles for the AL’s second wild-card spot, it’s fair probably to state that Houston is likely to qualify for the postseason only by the “skin of their teeth.” Were it not for this rare medical condition — which is known medically as dermadentosis and affects literally dozens — the Astros’ odds might be even worse. This afternoon, they endeavor simultaneously to separate themselves from the Angels while advancing on the division-leading Rangers.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

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Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times, orange for TechGraphs and blue for Community Research.
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Besides the fact that they’re natives of Latin America and play baseball and haven’t died ever, Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre are basically carbon copies of mid-century comedy duo Burns and Allen. What the footage here — from, like, five minutes ago — what the footage here reveals is another installment in their ongoing series of amusing scenarios. In this particular case, Beltre (first) feigns as though he intends to catch Jon Singleton’s pop-up but then (second) doesn’t catch that same pop-up. The premise is simple; the effect, nevertheless, profound. Andrus and Beltre for president? No one hasn’t not said it. No one hasn’t ever not said it real hard.

Ben and Sam talk to Kansas City Star Royals beat writer Andy McCullough about Alex Rodriguez, several Royals-related topics, and 1990s music.

Toward the end of April, things weren’t looking so hot for Pirates relief ace Mark Melancon. His velocity was down — way down — and Pirates manager Clint Hurdle was beginning to field questions about Melancon’s job security. Fast forward to September, and it seems like ages ago that we were even discussing this in a serious matter, because Melancon is on the verge of a historic season.

It would have been hard to claim that Melancon would go on to have such a great season back in April. Hurdle’s proclamation that Melancon would remain the closer was met with derision. The Bullpen Report guys moved Melancon and the Pirates closer situation into the red for the first time on April 22. The velocity on his cutter, which in the past had averaged 92 mph or faster, was averaging 88 mph. In the days immediately after April 22, his velocity would dip into the 87 mph range. Hardly big league worthy. At the same time, Arquimedes Caminero was making a name for himself, and it seemed like only a matter of time before the guy who might just be the right-handed Aroldis Chapman would take over as the Pirates closer. Or if not him, then perhaps the dependable Tony Watson. Or maybe Jared Hughes. Either way, it looked like Melancon’s days were numbered.
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Astros shortstop Carlos Correa turned 21 years old just three days ago. That would have been a much more dramatic opening line if we weren’t living through the Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Manny Machado Era, but it’s a relatively dramatic opening nonetheless. Correa has looked like one of MLB’s premier players over his first 90 games and 390 plate appearances all while being younger than Bryce Harper. And Bryce Harper is very young.

It’s not much of a surprise that Carlos Correa is a great baseball player. In fact, Correa was supposed to be a great player. He was taken first overall by the Astros in 2012, and while some people saw it as a way to free up money for later picks, no one disputed him as a top-level draft target. Correa’s been an elite prospect his entire career, occupying the fifth spot on Kiley’s Top 200 entering the season, and the third spot on the Baseball Prospectus and ESPN (Insider) lists.

The particularly remarkable aspect of Correa’s 2015 season is not that he’s hitting 32% better than league average or that he’s gathered 3.1 WAR in under 400 plate appearances; the remarkable part is that he’s doing so in 2015. While Correa’s potential was widely acknowledged, no one really seemed to expect it to arrive so soon. Kiley filed a report on him in October of 2014, giving him present Hit and Game Power grades of 20 to go along with a “2017 ETA.”

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As I wrote yesterday, I have an NL Cy Young vote this year. It is a remarkably tough year to pick a winner, as there are three pitchers having award-worthy seasons; you can make a really good argument for any of the three. The reality is that those of us with votes are going to have to split the slimmest of hairs in order to sort out the top three spots on the ballot, and yesterday, I tackled the question of catcher influence.

In response, someone left this comment.

This is a great suggestion; when the overall influence of combined season numbers are this close, looking at the individual distribution absolutely could be a source of differentiation. And since I know at least one other puzzled Cy Young voter read yesterday’s piece, I figured it was worth exploring this idea, plus a couple others by the responses to the piece.

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