FanGraphs Baseball

Adam Ottavino has been frustrated by platoon splits over his career. And admittedly, he’s had trouble with the lefties. So he’s looked around baseball for pitchers with similar skillsets that he can learn from.

First, he asked me about Steve Cishek, but he quickly understood that his arm slot made him a different pitcher than the Miami closer. Then, he spent some time thinking about Garrett Richards — “he has similar mechanics, that big curve ball, good velocity, and a slider he likes to use a lot,” said the new Rockies closer before his game against the Giants.

Ottavino noticed something about Richards’ fastball — “His four seamer tends to cut slightly when he goes to his glove side. It was the combination of that movement and his awesome sinking movement on his two seam that was interesting to me,” the Rockies pitcher said. But he also wanted to point out that it wasn’t all Richards. “I’ve played with a bunch of guys who had a good cutter and they all seemed to be more comfortable vs lefties than I was. Carlos Torres of the Mets is someone who immediately comes to mind. Adam Wainwright and Jake Arrieta are others that I watched.”

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The projections on Shane Greene have been pessimistic since he was in high school. The story goes like this, courtesy of our own Kiley McDaniel: leading up to the 2009 MLB draft, Greene was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, on the roster at Daytona State Junior College, and was virtually unknown.

Greene’s father talked a Yankees area scout in Florida into watching Shane pitch, and the scout was so impressed that Greene was added to pre-draft workouts, and subsequently taken in the 15th round. To say that his road to the majors is unique is an understatement; arms like Greene’s rarely go unnoticed nowadays.

After a five-year minor league stay and a trade from the Yankees to the Tigers, here we are. By now, you’ve probably heard of Greene’s first two starts of the season, the second happening just last night, in which he has pitched a combined 16 innings while giving up zilch. Yes, it’s immensely early, and Greene only has a short track record of any success at the major league level. However, he appears to have made some tweaks to his repertoire that merit our attention.

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Now that I’ve finished the organizational prospect lists, it’s time to circle back to the amateur baseball coverage and give some updates on what’s happening there. Before I jump into the international signing (most often referred to as the July 2nd group, because that’s the date players become eligible to sign) news, I’ll first give some updates on two Cubans and a Bahamian that should sign deals around that time as well, but don’t fit perfectly into the player pool.

Not Quite July 2nd Prospects

I wrote up 19-year-old Cuban righty Yadier Alvarez (Video) after I watched him throw a few innings in the last open workout for new Dodgers infielder Hector Olivera (Video). I said then that Alvarez was clearly superior to new Diamondbacks RHP Yoan Lopez (Video), a roughly comparable Cuban talent due to age, size and lack of track record of results. Lopez got $8.25 million and signed late in the international calendar, when many teams had already spent their money. Alvarez isn’t eligible to sign yet, but is awaiting a ruling from MLB on a waiver to make him eligible immediately.

The expectation is that even if Alvarez is granted the waiver that he will wait until July 2nd to sign. This is due to the persistent rumors that the Dodgers will be blowing past their international bonus pool for 2015-2016 (starting on July 2nd), with Alvarez their top target. The Dodgers offered Red Sox 2B Yoan Moncada (Interview & Background) $35 million (more than Boston’s winning $31.5 million bid) to wait until July 2nd to sign, but he passed. The Dodgers want to maximize their haul in their year of crazy spending and if they paid Moncada when he wanted to be paid, he would’ve been their only big signing, which would draw a two year penalty of not being able to give another young international prospect $300,000.

I lay that out as the evidence that the whole scouting world is pointing to of the Dodgers’ plan, beyond the rumors of targets, and I’ll mention those below. I’ve heard from multiple international scouts that believe the Dodgers already have a deal with Alvarez for $16 million (which would cost the Dodgers $32 million total, due to the dollar-for-dollar tax by MLB on 23 and under international prospects), but his reps deny a deal is done. Alvarez can’t sign right now anyway and, while a deal may not be done, everyone I’ve talked to thinks Alvarez will end up with the Dodgers (though a number of other teams are interested), and the price is about where scouts thought it would end up, so this makes a lot of sense.

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While it is generally regarded as a basketball conference, the Missouri Valley Conference has had a penchant for producing quality professional baseball prospects.  Wichita State is the most well-renowned program both in terms of collegiate success and high-end talent (Casey Gillaspie, Conor Gillaspie, Mike Pelfrey and Braden Looper, among others), but Missouri State University has had it’s fair share of pro prospects, particularly pitchers (Ross Detwiler, Shaun Marcum, Brad Ziegler, Scott Carroll, Mike Kickham, Pierce Johnson and Nick Petree).

Junior righty Jon Harris is the present iteration of the highly-regarded MSU hurlers, and while he will not be selected as early as Detwiler (6th overall in 2007), the right hander should be off of the board in the top 40 picks.

Harris was drafted out of a St. Louis area high school in the 33rd round of the 2012 draft, and has put up solid numbers since setting foot on campus.  After pitching for the Harwich Mariners of the Cape Cod League this past summer, Harris has received some more buzz, so it was little surprise to see 20+ evaluators, including a handful of scouting directors on hand to see Harris pitch against Jacksonville University two weekends ago.

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Oakland A’s first baseman/left fielder Mark Canha is off to a fine start to the 2015 season. Through the year’s first week and a half, he’s hitting a solid .333/.353/.515, and leads all rookies with 11 hits. This is obviously a teeny tiny sample, and we all know better than to read too much into seven games. But even so, an excellent performance from a previously unknown player is a little hard to ignore, especially after his six homers and .297/.342/.635 batting line from spring training. The A’s have to be happy with the return they’ve gotten on their rule 5 choice so far.

Although this is his first taste of big league action, Canha’s no youngster. He turned 26 this past February, and has been playing professionally since 2010, when the Marlins drafted him in the seventh round out of the University of California. Although he started out as a 21-year-old in short-season ball, Canha moved through the Marlins system relatively slowly. He spent a full year at each minor league level, so he’s just now making it to the big leagues.

Canha’s slow climb up the minor league ladder wasn’t due to a lack of hitting. His wRC+s from 2010-2014 were 139, 144, 128, 141 and 131. He’s never hit worse than his league’s average, nor has he come particularly close. But, year after year, the Marlins chose to let Canha mash as an old-for-his-league slugger instead of challenging him with more polished pitching. Read the rest of this entry »

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cistulli [4:59 PM]
I seem to be writing something about how Joe Kelly set a single-game strikeout mark for himself against the Yankees. Has anyone claimed anything like that?

davecameron [9:16 PM]
No one has. Can I suggest that maybe you write about Cody Martin instead? He’s a classic Cistulli guy and he’s killing it out of ATL’s bullpen right now.

davecameron [12:25 AM]
Cody Martin tonight: two more shutout innings, two more Ks. Now sporting a 0.12 xFIP through 5 1/3 IP. Write about him.

cistulli [10:41 AM]
I hear you, Cameron!

cistulli [10:45 AM]
Hey, additionally, did you see that weird double-steal by Mookie Betts yesterday? I was thinking of writing about that.

davecameron [10:46 AM]
CODY MARTIN

davecameron [10:46 AM]
You’re not allowed to do anything else until that’s done.

The above dialogue with managing editor and frequent pod guest Dave Cameron — excerpted from the site’s internal message board with only just minimal edits — will give the reader a sense of the hostile conditions under which FanGraphs contributors are compelled to work. Because he lives in North Carolina and the author of this post resides in New Hampshire, I’m unable to verify for certain that Cameron typed his end of the correspondence while wearing an actual iron fist. As for a metaphorical one, however, its presence is manifest.

Cameron has insisted that I write about Cody Martin — and lest I enter the ranks of America’s unemployed, I will endeavor here to fulfill that obligation. To begin, let’s evaluate some claims made by Cameron himself and examine their validity.

1. [Cody Martin] is a classic Cistulli guy.
By classic Cistulli guy, Cameron usually just means “anonymous non-prospect with no hope of major-league success.” In his more charitable moods, however, what he means is “performer with fringy tools.” Conveniently, that’s almost the precise phrase used by Kiley McDaniel to describe Martin when evaluating Atlanta’s rookie-eligible players this past January. Martin didn’t appear among the organization’s top prospects, but was featured within the Others of Note section — the equivalent, that, of honorable mention.

Martin is a Cistulli guy in a more immediate way, as well. Twice in 2013, Martin appeared within the weekly Fringe Five column I write here during the minor-league season and which is designed to identify the most compelling rookie-eligible players absent from the notable preseason prospects lists. At that time, Martin had just been promoted to Triple-A Gwinnett and proceeded to strike out 32 batters over his first 26.0 innings at that level.

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Last year, Dellin Betances was one of baseball’s elite relievers, throwing 90 dominant innings out of the Yankees bullpen. He was a young bright spot on a team full of old disappointments, flashing the kind of stuff and command that gave the Yankees confidence to let David Robertson leave via free agency. With a 97 mph fastball and a nearly unhittable breaking ball coming from a 6’8 guy, it was pretty easy to imagine Betances becoming the next great Yankee closer.

But right now, Dellin Betances is a mess. In his first three appearances of 2015, he’s walked six batters, only two fewer than his entire total from the second half of 2014. The control problems could be attributable to a larger problem, however, as his fastball is down under 95 mph, and his curveball is off last year’s mark by the same amount. He’s simply not throwing the same stuff now that he was a year ago, and he’s certainly not locating what he is throwing, giving hitters an easy plan when he’s on the mound: don’t swing.

Among pitchers who have faced at least 10 batters this year, no pitcher has seen opponents swing less often than they have against Betances; they’ve only gone after 24 of his 81 pitches, a 29.6% swing rate. Opponents have recognized that Betances doesn’t know where the ball is going, and they’re letting him dig his own grave. So far, he’s done just that.

This isn’t just an April problem, either; Betances struggled to find the strike zone in Spring Training, walking six batters in just 8 1/3 innings during the month of March. Clearly, opponents noticed his Grapefruit League troubles, and they’ve now carried over to the start of the regular season. So, how concerned should the Yankees be about their young former-flamethrower?

Maybe less than you’d think.

Read the rest on Just a Bit Outside.

In seven innings this season, including six in his start on Sunday, Carlos Martinez has faced 10 right-handed hitters. None of them has reached base and four hitters have struck out. Martinez’s early season dominance against righties is not altogether surprising. Splitting time between the bullpen and the rotation last season, Martinez faced 215 right-handers and struck out more than 30% of them while walking just shy of 7% and giving up only one home run for a 1.94 FIP.

Martinez featured a four-seam and a two-seam sinking fastball with his slider as his out pitch. The slider worked particularly well against righties, generating over a 25% whiff rate, per Brooks Baseball. Of the 87 plate appearances against right-handers that ended on a slider, 41 were strikeouts and five were walks. Martinez had the slider going against the Reds on Sunday, striking out four of the seven right-handed hitters he faced — three of whom he finished off with the slider. Against seven right-handers, Martinez made 31 pitches and threw 25 strikes. As a reminder, here is what the slider looked like against Zach Cozart.
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Nolan Arenado will never be Joey Votto. He’s too hyperactive, he’s too aggressive, and he knows it. He’s fine being Nolan Arenado, too. But that doesn’t mean the Rockies’ standout third baseman doesn’t struggle to find the perfect approach at the plate to fit his skill set.

Over the last two years, there hasn’t been so much of a yo-yo in his approach as a steady progression. “I’m just trying to be selective, as much as I can,” he said before a game with the Giants. “But I don’t want to get too selective, because that’s when I get tentative.”

A hitter in his own head is no good, but a hitter that swings at everything isn’t either. While Arenado’s swing rates have never swung below league average (he’s almost 10% above league average for his career), his reach rates have changed, signaling that the batter has indeed started to discern balls and strikes better. Watch his monthly reach rate haltingly improve over his career:

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