FanGraphs Baseball

Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 1/14/15

11:41
Dave Cameron: Holding the kid so typing one handed. Queue is open and all that.

12:02
Dave Cameron: Alright, let’s do this.

12:02
Comment From Chuck
I understand the quick-and-dirty in regards to WAR equivalents for position player (2=Average, 4=all star, etc). Is there a good breakdown for RAR?

12:02
Dave Cameron: It depends a bit on the run environment, but the runs to win conversion is around 9-9.5 right now, so just multiply WAR by that and you’ll have RAR for that level.

12:03
Comment From jocephus

fangraphs legal dept?

12:03
Dave Cameron: Ken Tremendous likes us.

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When Pitch Framing Travels

You might have noticed that a lot of catchers have been on the move this winter, and you wouldn’t be mistaken if you thought that every single one went through San Diego at some point. (The Padres traded Yasmani Grandal to the Dodgers and Rene Rivera to the Rays, briefly had Ryan Hanigan before sending him to Boston, and ended up with the duo of Derek Norris and Tim Federowicz.) You probably also noticed the Blue Jays gave Russell Martin a huge contract, that the Cubs are thrilled to be going from Welington Castillo to Miguel Montero and David Ross, and, well, yes, this is going to be about pitch framing.

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2015 ZiPS Projections – San Diego Padres

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Diego Padres. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Chicago AL / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / New York NL / Oakland / San Francisco / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Washington.

Batters
Unsurprisingly, given the zeal with which general manager AJ Preller et al. sought to turn over the roster this offseason, the four most encouraging WAR projections for Padres hitters belong to players who were acquired over the past month-plus. Surprisingly, perhaps — at least given the profile of the deal — none of those four are Matt Kemp. He’s forecast to produce among the top offensive lines on the club, but also -9 runs defensively in a corner-outfield spot. Wil Myers‘ defensive projection in center field (-12 runs) also fails to inspire hope.

An earlier version of the depth-chart image for the Padres — published by the author via Twitter on Tuesday night — featured Derek Norris and Tim Federowicz combining for five projected wins. In point of fact, the sum of their WAR forecasts is closer to five than any other whole number; the sum of their plate appearances is above 800, though, also. The number has been prorated to four wins here. Still enough, that, to profile as one of the team’s strongest positions.

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Where Josh Harrison Goes from Here

This isn’t a hard and fast rule, but if you’re a position player and your team asks you to pitch, it’s pretty likely that they don’t see you as a critical piece for the future. Even though position players usually just walk to the mound and keep it simple when called upon, the risk of injury prevents clubs from letting truly valuable players fall on the sword which is why the Pirates let Josh Harrison toss one-third of an inning in 2013.

Legend has it that it was the first time he had pitched since Little League (although it doesn’t appear that anyone called his high school’s official historian to verify that) and he faced one batter and induced a fly out against the Rockies Corey Dickerson. Harrison was the utility guy the Pirates turned to in order to avoid burning through an arm in a blowout in 2013, but his 2014 went in a very different direction.

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Effectively Wild Episode 599: Timeless Listener Emails

Ben and Sam banter about the Diamondbacks’ latest quote kerfluffle, then answer listener emails about timeless tickets, home-field disadvantages, and breakout players.


Current Live Feeds for Caribbean League Games

Multiple winter-league games are underway at the moment. Below is a (probably incomplete) collection of video feeds for same. I’ll update it haphazardly over the course of the evening. Readers are invited to provide information, as well.

Game: Gigantes at Estrellas (Dominican)
Players of Note Robinson Cano, Maikel Franco
Video / Box

Game: Toros at Aguilas (Dominican)
Players of Note Alen Hanson, Cesar Puello, Manny Ramirez
Video / Box

Game: Aragua at Magallanes (Venezuela)
Players of Note Avisail Garcia, Johan Santana, Yangervis Solarte
Video / Box


You’ll Never Believe This One Feature of the FAN Projections

Contrary to the title of this post, it’s very possible that the reader actually will believe the one feature of the FAN Projections detailed below. In point of fact, nothing of what follows represents much of a threat to credulity.

If the present author has lied, however, it’s only to relate a greater and more urgent truth.

Yesterday, FanGraphs CEO and founder David Appelman announced that the ballots for the 2015 FAN Projections are now open. The FAN projections, if nothing else, serve as an opportunity to examine the bias of the crowd, if not always that same crowd’s wisdom.

What the FAN Projections also allow, however, is for a reader to produce a sort of insta-projection for any player he or she might so choose. Earlier today, for example, I completed ballots for Matt Kemp, Tommy La Stella, and Marcus Semien. In addition to having done my part as an employee of this weblog, what my efforts also produced was a collection of three projections which expressed my personal and probably wrong convictions about Kemp’s and La Stella’s and Semien’s respective upcoming seasons — which projections are accessible merely by clicking the My Rankings button on the FAN Projection screen.

Regard (and click to enlarge):

pROJECTIONS iMAGE

In theory, a properly motivated individual could produce forecasts for every single baseball player for whom there’s also a player profile at this site.

By clicking here, is how one begins this journey into the marvelous.


Details Surface on Changes to Agent Certification

Before Christmas, we learned that there were changes coming to the process by which the Major League Baseball Players Association certifies agents. Today, more details surfaced on that issue, which help clarify some of the confusion regarding motivation. Not necessarily in a way that the MLBPA would like.

For one, my sources in the original story disagreed on the subject of fee changes. Turns out, the fees are much larger this year than they were in the past. A $250 fee, due every two years, has now turned into a $1,500 fee due every year. The $500 application fee is now a $2,000 application fee.

The rest lines up with the reporting we had on the issue. There will be more background checks, and now the MLBPA is allowed to hire outside help to perform those background checks. In order to get certified, you not only need a player on a 40-man roster, but now you need to fill out an in-person test.

The fact that fees went up so much is interesting. While you could make a case that the background checks and testing process will make for better agents, the fees are now a roadblock to entry for any independent agent of any quality. These changes, seen in tandem, seem to suggest that the MLBPA is interested in making the way tougher for an independent agent.

It was already tough for them. The main rule — that you have to have a player on the 40-man roster — is easy enough for a corporate agent to hurdle. They can be placed on the agent list for a player that has signed with his agency. The independent agent must cultivate minor league players and hope they get on the 40-man in order for the agent to follow him to the big time.

And now these fee raises. By themselves, they aren’t too honerous, but they do make it harder for a startup agent to join the business. Which was already hard enough, considering the perks that the big corporate agencies can offer their clients.

What isn’t obvious is *why* the MLBPA would prefer to police corporate agencies, unless those agencies do much of the help policing their own ranks.

Perhaps the fee raises do point to another answer, as one source claimed. In their statements, the Tony Clark, head of the MBLPA, said that “This is the first phase in what will be an ongoing effort to improve and modernize our regulatory program and we are confident these changes will serve Players and agents well.” And according to the story, the union also said that “the increase in fees reflects the costs of the background checks and the administration of agents.”

Put those two statements together, and it may be possible that we see a new position at the MLBPA — Agent Czar. All of my sources agreed that enforcement of even the current list of rules was spotty at best, and so maybe a czar is needed. Apparently, it’ll be one that the agents pay for.


FAN Projection Targets: Five Pitchers Traded This Offseason

Yesterday, FanGraphs CEO and founder David Appelman announced that the ballots for the 2015 FAN Projections are now available for the tender ministrations of this site’s readership. With a view to ensuring that all notable players are addressed sufficiently — and also towards producing the number of posts he’s required to publish each week — the present author is highlighting certain players whose ballots are of some particular interest.

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FanGraphs: Now Hiring

We haven’t done this in a while — the last one was more than three years ago, actually — but FanGraphs is now actively accepting applications to join our writing staff. Specifically, we are looking for someone who is interested in writing for the main blog on a daily basis. Familiarity and comfort with the data here on FanGraphs is a requirement, but just as importantly, we’re looking for someone who can generate their own ideas and topics while providing interesting analysis or commentary on the game of baseball.

This is a paid part-time position, so prior writing experience is strongly preferred. When applying, please include samples of your writing — links to previously published content is even better — as well as either a resume or a brief overview of your educational and writing experience. Applications should be emailed to wanted@fangraphs.com, and use the subject line “FanGraphs Writer Application – 2015”; please ensure that is the subject so that we can keep all of the applications organized and yours does not slip through the cracks.

Whether you primarily have an analytical bent and are looking to use us as a springboard to getting hired by a team — we’re actually okay with that, so feel free to be honest about this — or identify yourself as a writer who is looking for a larger platform to publish your ideas about the game, we’re interested in seeing what you might be able to offer to the site. If you feel like you’d be a good fit as a daily writer for FanGraphs, drop us a line. We cannot promise to respond to every application we receive, but we’ll make sure every applicant receives serious consideration.