FanGraphs Baseball

The four Caribbean winter leagues have entered their respective playoff rounds. Below is a (probably incomplete) collection of video feeds for Wednesday’s games. The author will update it haphazardly over the course of the evening. Readers are invited to provide useful links, as well. Games listed in chronological order, with most recent start time on top.

Game: Navegantes at Tiburones (Venezuela)
Start Time: 7:00pm ET
Players of Note: Alcides Escobar
Video / Box

Game: Toros at Gigantes (Dominican)
Start Time: 6:30pm ET
Players of Note: Alen Hanson, Cesar Puello, Jean Segura
Video / Box

Game: Aguilas at Estrellas (Dominican)
Start Time: 6:30pm ET
Players of Note: Robinson Cano, Juan Perez, Manny Ramirez
Video / Box

It’s important to note this trade isn’t official yet. So it’s a little uncomfortable writing up an analysis, given that, who knows, something could go wrong in the physical. But, usually, those go fine, and even when they don’t, like in the case of the Matt Kemp deal, the trade might still go through anyway. So here’s what looks to be happening, in a Wednesday exchange between the Astros and the Braves:

Astros get:

• Evan Gattis

Braves get:

• Mike Foltynewicz
• Rio Ruiz
• Andrew Thurman

From the Braves’ side, it’s easy enough to understand. Despite the puzzling Nick Markakis deal, the Braves aren’t thinking about 2015, and they know Gattis doesn’t profile great as a corner outfielder, so they’re giving up a piece of value now for a trio of prospects. One of the prospects is very exciting. Another has people who think very highly of him. Even the third guy might have a future. The haul’s good enough to at least temporarily distract Braves fans from the current makeup of the big-league product.

It’s the other side that’s more interesting. Not that the Braves’ side isn’t interesting, but this is the Houston Astros turning prospects into a shorter-term asset. It’s not the first time they’ve done that; last offseason, they gave up a couple pieces for Dexter Fowler. And the Astros have lately made some shorter-term decisions, so perhaps we’re observing an accelerating shift in front-office mindset. But there are a few different ways this could go. It’s not immediately clear where the Astros think they might be in eight or ten months.

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The Braves housecleaning reportedly continued today, with the team nearing a deal that would ship sometimes-catcher Evan Gattis to Houston in exchange for prospects Mike Foltynewicz, Rio Ruiz, and Andrew Thurman. The quick overview of the players going both directions.

Gattis is a 28 year old with top shelf power, but limited skills beyond that, as he doesn’t control the strike zone particularly well and is somewhat limited defensively; the metrics on him behind the plate are okay, but scouts have long projected him to be a first baseman or designated hitter, and the Braves certainly didn’t see him as a long-term option behind the plate. Best case scenario, he’s probably Mike Napoli with fewer walks, which is a pretty nice player but not quite a star. And with the Astros already having a crowded catching situation, he may end up getting most of his playing time at first base or left field, potentially limiting his value a bit.

Interestingly, both Steamer and ZIPS are down on Gattis, projecting him to be just a slightly above average hitter in 2015, which would make him something more like Mark Trumbo instead of Mike Napoli. That said, Gattis had an unusual career path, and perhaps his age shouldn’t be held against him quite as much as the forecasting systems think; he may be a “young” 28 in terms of baseball development. This is one case where I’d probably be comfortable taking the over on the projected offensive line.

To acquire Gattis, the Astros gave up their #5, #7, and #21 prospects according to Kiley McDaniel’s rankings. Here is what he wrote about the three.

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You’ve heard it all before. Regress to the mean. Don’t make too much of a small sample. Don’t believe in the predictive power of second-half statistics, if they look particularly different from the first-half statistics. You know all the ways you are and aren’t supposed to interpret a player’s numbers. But you also know the key to exceptions, which many try to exploit: when a player makes a legitimate change, his prior numbers become less useful. A change, I mean, to his approach, or his mechanics. The White Sox don’t care too much about Zach Duke‘s history, because he recently changed his delivery. The Tigers don’t care too much about J.D. Martinez’s history, because he recently changed his swing. Marcus Stroman was never bad, but he, too, made a change. It’s real easy to spot on the following image, from Brooks Baseball:

That’s Stroman’s big-league 2014, broken down by month. There’s no arguing the major trend: over time, Stroman threw more two-seamers, or sinkers, and far fewer four-seamers. It’s a dramatic shift, and it’s a dramatic shift in the middle of a year. Stroman became something he hadn’t been before.

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The MASN dispute between the Orioles and Nationals continues to wage on in New York state court. As a review, the fight involves an arbitration decision issued last year by MLB’s Revenue Sharing Definitions Committee (the “RSDC”), awarding the Nationals roughly $60 million dollars per year in broadcast rights fees from the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network. This award was nearly $30 million more per year than the team had previously been receiving, but far less than the roughly $120 million it had requested.

The Orioles, who own a majority share of the MASN network, have contested the arbitration outcome, contending that the arbitrators – the owners of the New York Mets, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Tampa Bay Rays – were biased in favor of the Nationals. MASN and the Orioles filed suit back in August, asking the court to overturn the arbitration decision. Last month, the court ordered MLB to produce documents in the case relating to commissioner-elect Rob Manfred’s involvement in the arbitration proceedings.

This week both MASN and the Orioles filed new papers with the court, further describing the alleged bias of MLB and its arbitrators.

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I’m gonna go ahead and write about Todd Frazier again.

I wrote about Frazier last week, with a focus on the combination of both power and speed he displayed in 2014. According to a metric devised by legendary historian Bill James in an attempt to quantify one’s combination of power and speed, Frazier’s Power/Speed was third in the major leagues, behind Carlos Gomez and Ian Desmond and ahead of Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen.

That’s really impressive for a third baseman who we didn’t know had this kind of speed and blah blah blah I’m starting to repeat myself from last week. Point is, Frazier did these two things really well. I focused moreso on the power in last week’s post, but the more surprising part is the steals, so I wanted to investigate that a bit further.
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The St. Louis Cardinals have two openings in their Baseball Development department for an Analyst and a Developer:

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Not for nothing did Aristotle, in probably his Ethics or something like his Ethics, declare that contemplation is the “highest good” — but that, right after contemplation, brushes with fame were the “second-highest good.”

The editors of and contributors to this site experienced the latter of those goods last night by means of popular sitcom Parks and Recreation. Created in part by Michael Schur, writer emeritus of Fire Joe Morgan, the first episode of that program’s seventh season features a law firm whose name is composed entirely of terms borrowed from baseball’s nerd lexicon — including, but not limited to, FanGraphs WAR (often abbreviated as fWAR).

Just as the woodlands which, in Psalm 29, are stripped bare by the voice of God, the author and his colleagues are stripped bare.

Image stolen entirely sans ruth from Deadspin.

Earlier this week, FanGraphs CEO and founder David Appelman announced that the ballots for the 2015 FAN Projections are now available for the tender ministrations of this site’s readership. With a view to ensuring that all notable players are addressed sufficiently — and also towards producing the number of posts he’s required to publish each week — the present author is highlighting certain players whose ballots are of some particular interest.

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On Tuesday, the Diamondbacks announced they’d signed Cuban right-handed pitching prospect Yoan Lopez to a contract that includes an $8.25 million contract. This is the largest signing bonus given to an international prospect since Major League Baseball instituted new rules governing these signings in 2012, and signing Lopez means that Arizona is accepting the penalties that go along with blowing past the allocated bonus pool they were given.

But $8.25 million won’t stand as the record signing bonus for very long. It won’t even be the largest signing bonus by a Cuban named Yoan, because Lopez’s record is going to be shattered in a few months by Yoan Moncada, a 19 year old who is being billed as one of the best prospects to come off the island in a long time. Here is what FanGraphs lead prospect writer Kiley McDaniel wrote about Moncada in his original profile back in October.

“Moncada is 19 and packs a lot of tools into his 6’1/210 frame. He’s a plus-plus runner with above average raw power from both sides of the plate and the tools/skills to stick in the infield, possibly at shortstop. Moncada is the quick-twitch type with big bat speed that clubs covet and his track record of hitting at big tournaments and in Cuba’s professional leagues is excellent considering his age.”

Additionally, Ben Badler of Baseball America has written that if Moncada was eligible for the 2015 draft, he’d be in the mix to be taken #1 overall. This is not the kind of prospect who hits the open market very often, and naturally, all of the big money plays are reportedly interested. McDaniel has previously reported that the Red Sox and Yankees are “heavy favorites”, while MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez has put the Dodgers in the mix as well. With those three teams potentially engaging in a bidding war, Moncada is likely set for the kind of signing bonus that will make Lopez’s deal seem like an afterthought.

Read the rest on Just a Bit Outside.