Pending Options: Second Basemen
Mark Ellis, Oakland
Option: $6M Buyout: $0.5M
After a disappointing 2009, Ellis bounced back in a big way; increasing his WAR by two while only racking up an additional 82 plate appearances. When Ellis originally signed the extension, he became the point o dissension amongst the community for not testing the market. The deal appeared to be of the sweetheart variety. It still is, as even Ellis’ down season racked up a value of $5.4 million. If Ellis were to replicate that value (in dollars) in 2011, he would essentially pay for himself, as the buyout guarantees he’ll receive half a million whether he’s in Oakland (likely) or elsewhere.
Jose Lopez, Seattle
Option: $4.5M Buyout: $0.25M
One could categorize Lopez as a third baseman, since that is where he played last season, but for now let’s call him a second baseman. Lopez will be a quarter of a million richer as he hits the free agent market unless Jack Zduriencik somehow creates a sucker rally. The 2010 season may represent a disaster in Lopez’s career, but he’s probably headed for a utility role given his history of relative success. Lopez will only be 27 and getting away from Safeco should help his raw numbers immediately. He’s never going to take a lot of walks but his ability to hit for pop and adequately play two premium defensive positions shouldn’t be overlooked.
Omar Infante, Atlanta
Option: $2.5M Buyout: $0.25M
Infante was more than worth the money over the last two seasons alone, but this season cemented his return. Presumably Infante will return to his super sub role, although some of that is dependent on what occurs with Chipper Jones and what steps – if necessary – the Braves take to replace the legend.
Jose Lopez? As a Padre? I think I’m gonna be sick. The idea alone is making me go into convulsions. It must be the sub .300 OBP combined with Petco combined with memories of Kevin Kouzmanoff.
That says “Pending” not “Padres”
As an objective baseball fan, I have to say that it seems entirely possible that if you put Lopez in a park friendly to right-handed extreme pull hitters and somehow had someone on hand to keep a fire lit under his ass, he could be a very surprising bounce-back candidate.
As a Seattle resident, I hope said fire under his ass catches the rest of him on fire.
Ellis hit in a Bonds esque way for the last month of the season, after a pretty abysmal April through August. A lot of A’s fans are a little skeptical of Mark’s ability to replicate his 2010, when a huge amount of his value came in September. I think we’ll see his option bought out and then a different deal put on the table by the A’s.
Jose Lopez as a free agent?!?
He posted back to back $10M+ seasons as a 24 and 25 year old. Even as a 26 year old under his 2011 salary he cost the team under $2M in salary (minus buy out) over performance. It’s hard to imagine a team not taking a risk on a player that has the possibility of netting an $8M+ gain where the loss is so insignificant – especially without any legitimate in house options.
I’m very confused why Seattle wouldn’t pick up his option for 4.5m. While last season was horrifically bad, it had an unsustainably low BABIP of .254 (.025 below his career average) and he had a terrible HR/FB % too (4.9 vs 7.2 career). If those even slip halfway back up to his career averages, his WAR last season would have been enough approach the value of that option.
We’re basically talking about a player who put up 2.5 WAR in both 2008 and 2009, and still about 0.7 WAR last season- which was unquestionably his worst. Given the valuation of WAR here on Fangraphs, 4.5m seems very reasonable for a 1 year contract. You can keep him on and if he starts hitting well, you either keep him on board or flip him for prospects. If he plays like he did last year, you’re only out on a loss of 2 million.
Plus, it’s not like there is a glut of 2B or 3B options out there. If there was, Atlanta wouldn’t have been trotting Brooks Conrad onto the field with such regularity. I would not at all be surprised to see a team pick up Lopez for 5m as a free agent, even after a bad season. Or something like 3m with another 3m or more in incentives.
But maybe I’m wrong. Is there any good evidence that for some reason Lopez is completely washed up at what should be the prime of his career?
Brooks Conrad barely got any playing time. You just don’t have very many options when your 3rd baseman and backup 3rd baseman/2nd baseman go down.
I’m well aware that he was an option of last resort, but with that said: Was anybody really surprised to see Chipper Jones on the DL? Just by having him on the team, you have to assume he’s going to miss around 40 games annually and have a good secondary option. Given that their 3B “backup” was their starting 2B, that’s hardly a great situation to be in. Many competitive clubs in that situation would be willing to pay a bit of a premium to shore up that possibility.
Basically, my point is: Solid 2B/3B players do not grow on trees. If they were worth under 4.5 million for a full time role, a team like Atlanta would have had better backup options.
The reason Seattle won’t be picking up his option is because of Chone Figgins and Dustin Ackley. By all accounts Ackley is very close to ready and while the other two can play second or third he is solely a second baseman. That leaves Figgins and Lopez fighting for third and, given Figgins’ better track record, at least equal glove at third and big contract, he will most likely be the one who stays.
Perhaps, but given that the Lopez option may actually have value- he might be worthwhile as a sign and flip. While it’s easy to sour on him for a horrible season, he preceded that with two very productive seasons. This would seem to make a very good scenario for trying to play Lopez until you’re past the super-2 deadline (if Ackley is good enough to worry about that) and to flip Lopez if he has any value (or hold onto him if you’re contending and he’s a key piece, I suppose).
In my opinion, dropping him and calling someone else up would be very much like when Pittsburgh dropped Capps after his bad season, even though he had a reasonable option. I don’t quite see why you’d fail to sign a player with an expected surplus value, even if you didn’t have a spot for him. Somebody would have a spot for him, so you sign and deal.
The Mariners have been trying to trade him for years; the trade market just isn’t good for 2B especially one with the problems Lopez has.
Simply put, Lopez is a bad fit for the team and both sides are in a position need to move on. Lopez could still be a good player on another team, but he’s worn out his welcome in Seattle. Throw in the fact that Seattle financially is not in good shape (Lowering payroll + bad contracts still in the books) makes the 4.5 million not worth it.
Your analogy to the Capps situation uses wrong information. Capps was an arb-eligible player who would’ve been due a hefty raise despite his bad performance in 2009. Hence, the non-tendering that made him a free agent.
Now, should Pittsburgh have still brought him back on a lower cost, 1-year contract after non-tendering him? Probably, and then they could’ve flipped him at the trading deadline for a prospect(maybe even still to the Twins for someone like Wilson Ramos, perhaps.)
But he didn’t have a contract option per se, no. 😉
The shortage of 2B’s is an understatement.
There’s a couple ways of looking at that …
(1) if you have one that can produce, keep him.
(2) A lot of players could produce similar lines, if given a full season.
If they feel Ackley or another player can produce similarly, for cheaper than go that route.
This could be a good test for seattle’s evaluation/projection system.
While the team has to do what it feels is best, I doubt there’s many M’s fans that want to see the same lineup trotted out there in 2011. Seeing young talents like Smoak and Ackley on the field might be more desireable.
Don’t know if you meant this series to be about free agents once options are decided upon, R.J., but even if the M’s decline Jose Lopez 2011 option, he still won’t be a free agent.
Lopez will have 5+years of service time at the end of 2010. That’s not enough to file for free agency(which requires 6 years), so his contractual rights will be under the control of the M’s, who will then have to decide whether or not he is worth tendering a contract to for 2011 by December 11th or 12th(or whenever the deadline is this year.)
So, yes, the option for $4.5 million will be declined, but the real question(s) is/are:
a. Whether the M’s feel it’s a good idea at all to tender Lopez a contract once option has been declined.
b. Whether the maximum 20% reduction in salary from one year to the next(Lopez’ 2010 salary was $2.5 million) is enough to warrant tendering him a contract. He would have to be offered a minimum of $2.0 million in a one-year contract for 2011 on that basis.
As someone mentioned above, if he can be under contract for a reasonable amount, then he might hold some trade value, even if the M’s don’t get much back. There are plenty of teams who could use a guy to back up at 2B and 3B with right handed pull power to offer as well.