Peter, Out: Orioles Swipe Alonso From Mets
After a somnambulant first day of the Winter Meetings, one of the buzzier rumors involved free agent first baseman Pete Alonso getting in his car, driving up I-4 from his home in Tampa to Orlando, and pitching himself in person to the Red Sox and Orioles.
Apparently, those meetings went well. The drive from New York to Baltimore mostly takes place on expensive toll roads, but Alonso now has an extra $155 million to put on his EZ Pass account. Big Pete, the Polar Bear, the face of the Mets’ franchise, is bound for Baltimore on a five-year contract.
It’s not shocking in the slightest that Alonso signed soon after Kyle Schwarber re-upped with the Phillies. Schwarber’s deal set the market for the avuncular power-over-all-else NL East DH-type guy. And it also took the Phillies (as well as the Reds and Pirates, who were evidently interested in Schwarber and only Schwarber) out of the market for a middle-of-the-order bat.
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that the Orioles had offered to match Schwarber’s five-year, $150 million deal; at the time, this struck me as a precisely calculated “we tried” effort. Schwarber was unlikely to move all his stuff to take the same money from a worse team, where he isn’t the undisputed clubhouse leader. At the same time, the Orioles’ great sin under Mike Elias has been operating as if it’s more important to be clever than successful; dumping a massive bag of money in the lap of an aging DH — 56-homer season or not — didn’t seem like Elias’ style.
Surprises, it turns out, can be fun.
Alonso isn’t quite in Schwarber’s league as a hitter; after his 53-homer rookie campaign, the former Florida Gator topped out at 46 dingers in 2023. Alonso’s .524 SLG — his highest mark since that rookie year — ranked 12th in the majors, one point ahead of Michael Busch. His career-high 10.4% walk rate, posted in 2019, would’ve been Schwarber’s career low.
But Alonso is roughly two years younger than Schwarber, which is significant when you’re talking about five-year contracts for players in their 30s. And he was absolutely terrific in his walk year.
In 2024, Alonso returned to the Mets on a frontloaded two-year deal with an opt-out, having struck out on his search for a longer-term contract. And he did more than just run it back in 2025; he got more aggressive within the strike zone, shored up his weakness against sliders, posted the best quality-of-contact numbers of his career, and ran a .272 batting average and a 141 wRC+.
The Orioles have had only three offensive seasons that good in the past 20 years: Two by Chris Davis in the 2010s, and one by Gunnar Henderson in 2024.
Alonso is clearly an upgrade at either first base or DH for almost anyone, and the Orioles, who traded Ryan O’Hearn at the deadline, are not one of the exceptions. Combined with the Taylor Ward trade from earlier this offseason, Alonso’s signing brings balance to a Baltimore lineup that was a little lefty-heavy, with Henderson and Jackson Holliday up near the top of the order, and Colton Cowser and Samuel Basallo showing up later on.
And like the Corbin Burnes trade before the 2024 season, this is a sign that Elias and his boss, David Rubenstein, are willing to go outside the homegrown talent pool to find pieces that’ll put Baltimore over the top. Even if they cost a lot.
Because this is a lot of money for Alonso. Ben Clemens had Alonso booked for four years and $120 million; our reader crowdsource estimate averaged out to four years and $107 million. ZiPS was slightly more conservative, suggesting $110 million in total value for a five-year contract.
I’ll come out and just say two things our readers probably already know: First, Alonso is very good now, and will improve the Orioles quite a bit in the short term. And — as weird as this might seem, given how long Baltimore’s been the next hot thing — the Orioles’ window is not going to stay open forever. They only have two more seasons of team control left on Adley Rutschman, and only three more on Gunnar Henderson and Kyle Bradish; that lines up with the remaining years of Alonso’s prime.
Which leads to the second thing you probably already know: Big power hitters like Alonso don’t always age well, and sometimes, when it goes, it goes all at once. Orioles fans, having seen the backend of Davis’ career, know this as well as anyone.
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | .274 | .348 | .536 | 584 | 84 | 160 | 37 | 1 | 38 | 113 | 57 | 145 | 1 | 146 | 3.6 |
| 2027 | .267 | .341 | .512 | 566 | 78 | 151 | 35 | 1 | 34 | 104 | 55 | 141 | 1 | 137 | 2.9 |
| 2028 | .259 | .333 | .487 | 532 | 69 | 138 | 32 | 1 | 29 | 92 | 51 | 134 | 1 | 129 | 2.0 |
| 2029 | .252 | .327 | .463 | 492 | 62 | 124 | 29 | 0 | 25 | 80 | 47 | 126 | 1 | 121 | 1.4 |
| 2030 | .245 | .321 | .437 | 421 | 50 | 103 | 24 | 0 | 19 | 64 | 40 | 111 | 1 | 112 | 0.7 |
But I guess we’ll cross that bridge when we get there.
The Orioles have some work to do; their rotation is pretty weak for a team with championship aspirations, and the AL East is not the kind of division that lends itself to someone backing into first place by going 88-74. This division holds the past two AL pennant winners, the Blue Jays and the Yankees, a Red Sox team that’s rearming for another playoff run, and a Rays team that sometimes comes out of nowhere to win 92 games with a lineup of guys you’ve never heard of. If the Orioles want to contend, they’ll have to be good, not just lucky. Alonso is a good incremental step, but he can’t throw 150 league-average innings.
As simple as the picture is for Alonso’s new team, his old club, the Mets, are in a bit of a pickle.
I’ll start by saying this, as someone who does not need too much provocation to laugh at the Mets. (I’ve watched Mr. Met fall off the stage at the Lumineers concert about 500 times.) But letting Alonso walk is not an “Lol, Mets” moment for me, even one day after Edwin Díaz left for the Dodgers without very much financial provocation.
This is a 31-year-old right-right first baseman — a DH, really — who was going to conflict defensively with Juan Soto sooner rather than later. Just on those grounds, I get a front office not wanting to commit for five years and spend $155 million. Even a front office bankrolled by Steve Cohen.
And as popular as Alonso is, and as many jerseys and bobbleheads as he’s sold over the past seven seasons, his status as a franchise icon should not make him an automatic re-sign. During Alonso’s tenure, the Mets have made the playoffs just twice in seven seasons, advancing past the Division Series only once. In 2025, they ran a $340 million payroll, crapped the bed down the stretch, won just 83 games, and missed the playoffs.
I’m not saying that’s Alonso’s fault. Only that the era of Mets baseball he’s come to define has not been especially successful. Therefore, I wouldn’t move heaven and earth to keep him around on franchise legend grounds.
But here’s the eternal question when a team — especially one with money — lets a key player walk: What are you going to do with the savings?
The example I keep coming back to is the Washington Nationals, who let Bryce Harper walk after the 2018 season, then used the money they freed up to sign Patrick Corbin. Say what you will about the last five years of that contract, but they do not win the World Series in 2019 without Corbin.
So what are the Mets doing with the money they’re not paying Alonso and Díaz?
Well, they’ve signed Devin Williams, which is great. They’ve also swapped aging supporting players by moving Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien. That helps the team defensively, but it’s explicitly a lateral move. And remember, the world’s most expensive 83-win team can’t afford lateral moves; it has to get better.
As it stands, RosterResource is projecting a couple harrowing possibilities: cleanup hitter Mark Vientos and designated hitter Ronny Mauricio. And the pitching staff isn’t going to bail that shallow a lineup out. The only way to talk yourself into the notion that the Mets have a single top-five pitcher in the division is to combine a highly optimistic view of Nolan McLean with a highly pessimistic view of Zack Wheeler and Spencer Schwellenbach’s injury recoveries.
Now, it’s still early in the offseason. The Mets have lost two of our top 10 free agents, but six of the other eight are still out there. As surprising as it is to see Alonso leave, it’d be vastly more shocking for the Mets to go to Spring Training without making at least one massive signing. This team is best viewed as incomplete, rather than troubled.
But after losing two key players in two days, the Mets are going to be under pressure to complete their vision. They might be better off without Alonso, but we won’t be able to tell until they bring in a replacement.
Michael is a writer at FanGraphs. Previously, he was a staff writer at The Ringer and D1Baseball, and his work has appeared at Grantland, Baseball Prospectus, The Atlantic, ESPN.com, and various ill-remembered Phillies blogs. Follow him on Twitter, if you must, @MichaelBaumann.
Good for Baltimore. Alonso and Schwarber are very similar players and Alonso is younger. I did not understand why they were seen differently in this market – it turns out they were not.
“He gets on base.”
-Peter Brand
Perfect
We’re not selling jeans here.
All jokes aside, Schwarbs should be good for a solid +.02 points of OBP over Alonso.
I am guessing that Bellinger is the only FA 1B left that might move the needle for a contender. Vientos to 1B?
He’s more valuable in the OF. Still moves the needle at 1st yes but he’s a good outfielder defender that hits well. Though he might not be CF quality anymore (can occasionally moonlight) that is still a good profile. Being able to play 1st is a bonus in terms of roster flexibility.
I feel like I am the only Mets fan not crashing out over losing Diaz and Alonso. Don’t get me wrong I loved watching these guys on my team and Alonso is one of the all-time great Mets, but they have already replaced Diaz and a 1B who is a little above average doesn’t seem that difficult to replace. Well will see what the Mets do. I think this should be fine and could be even without another big signing.
I’m not calling in to WFAN or anything but I would definitely say this makes me quite sad as a fan, even though rationally in terms of the future W-L forecast, I agree with you. This team should be spending its money on pitching anyhow.
I rationally get it not extending this contract or going wild for Diaz and choosing Semien over Nimmo.
I rationally get that Stearns is a talented, well-liked executive.
I can’t recall being this shocked or dismayed about the start to an offseason.
Yeah. Of course order matters a lot for the offseason storyline and not at all once the next season comes, but it’d be a lot nicer to spend the winter dreaming on some big new acquisition than it is to spend the winter thinking “shit, I just lost half my favorite guys to root for.”
I suppose this means you’re not Martin from Flushing
From Flushing yes, Martin no
People wanted the core changed and then kvetched when it was . I understand why people are sad and angry. I believe Jeff McNeil who is likely to go next is the last Mets player that was on the team in the 2010’s and I bet he’s a goner too. I believe Lindor will be the second longest tenured Mets behind Peterson, who might be moved too.
I didn’t want THIS part of the core to be moved!
Defining Alonso as ‘a little above average’ is the giveaway here
If you’re defining by WAR, that’s a fair assessment. Of course, 1B get the positional disadvantage.
I’d say “solidly above average.”
…but 31 year old 3 WAR 1Bs aren’t who you want to pay this kind of money.
I am less sure about this. His 2023-24 seasons were 2.8 and 2.1 WAR. I understand FG projects him for 3 WAR next year but personally I would expect something more like 2.5, and it wouldn’t shock me if it was closer to 2. FG is better at this than me obviously, but having watched him his whole career his loss of athleticism in the field last year would have me worried about a significant drop in production next year.
That doesn’t change at all the missing offensive production the Mets now have to cover without Alonso; plus whoever replaces him will still have the same positional disadvantage.
What’s Keith Hernandez up to?
You’re not the only one, ackbar.
First, Pete made a great move by not settling last year, bet on himself, and produced a season worthy of the contract he received – props to him!
Maybe I’m mistaken, but I feel the owner and the front office were just done with LFGM, that with the moves they made/will make, they wanted to make clear this was Lindor’s team, so they are clearing out all of the old guard. I think they love the fact that Lindor is a quiet, confident leader, eager to learn, always on the top step next to Buck and now Mendy. Family man – he is the type of franchise player an owner dreams of.
Pete was great to root for, but the contract would not have been a good business decision for the Mets, and this now gives them the opportunity to reshape the roster to how they see fit, bringing in players that fit not only on the field but also in the clubhouse. The bet is on Lindor, and I think it’s a smart one – we’ll see if it leads to a title. And I think guys like Bellinger and Michael King fit that mold and would not be surprised to see moves made within the next few days.
I really like the Willson Conteras rumor just up on MLBTR if they can pull it off, am rooting for it
Edit: Idk why I replied to this post v just putting this in my own
> and a 1B who is a little above average doesn’t seem that difficult to replace.
It may seem that way but Pete is 5th overall in fWAR since his debut year. 1b have to f’n mash and most don’t.
It’s a little irritating that people keep looking at just the WAR here, since whoever replaces him at 1B will still be penalized by their position, they just won’t be as productive at the plate. And anyone arguing that Alonso hasn’t been an extremely productive (and durable, let’s not forget that) hitter is chasing down the wrong hole.
First baseman are incredibly hard to replace. But I agree w the overall point
How credible are the reports that the Mets lost about 300 mil last year? Is that why they saw Diaz and Alonso walk?
I haven’t followed baseball much lately so I apologize if this question has already achieved common knowledge clarity.
The “reports” I’ve seen are of a much lower number than that, but none of these numbers are credible anyhow. Like any complicated business entity (and especially closely privately held ones) their paper profits and losses are almost totally unrelated to how much money is actually being made and where it’s getting stashed.
Posted this without reading the article. I guess you can make sense of not retaining these players without pointing to not wanting to spend money.
I am pretty sure that the Mets lost more money than any team in baseball last year but it would be a little weird for the ownership to start caring about that *now*.
In any case the casino was approved this fall, so the construction of the Greater Flushing Bay Money-Printing Machine is entirely on track no matter what we guess to be the true profitability of its orange-and-blue ambassadors.
It doesn’t matter when you have a criminal billionaire for an owner.
Aren’t they all, though?
Cohen had to pay $900 million in fines and another $900 million via forfeiture to the SEC for insider trading in 2013. I’m not aware of any other current owner having a judgment against them.
Reports that any team lost money are to be viewed with extreme skepticism.
Ownership in professional sports is not a good way to make money if you plan to actually keep the team. Values increase but revenue is relatively static. Billionaires buy teams because of the prestige.
Baseball accounting is notoriously fudged. Owners claim losses all the time but they have a lot of revenue that they do not book to the club and find ways to book expenses to the club.
I guess you can say Amazin day the Mets offseason fanfest is canceled this year. I’m stuck in my feelings as even though he was never my favorite Met I’ll miss Alonso. I think the contract the O’s gave Alonso is two years too many but once Kyle five years I knew Pete was gone. The O’s finally spent but I doubt this works out honestly.
I really hope Stearns has a really good plan to replace Alonso with someone other than Vientos or a Ryan Mountcastle type or literally Ryan Mountcastle. I’d be fine with trading for Wilson Contreras from the Cards and playing him at first where he put had strong defensive statcast numbers or sign Okamoto even if he’s an unknown. Really hoping they have a plan as they have tons of holes almost everywhere. My question is Cohen planning to cut payroll from last year if so Tucker’s out of the question. Pete bet on himself after turning down the extension Eppler offered him in 2023 and eventually it paid off.
I am a Cards fan and immediately thought of Contreras, who I think would love playing on that team. Could we get Sproat or Tong?
No you can’t.
Maybe if they pay down a ton of the deal, but I think you’re probably looking at a prospect at the level of Santucci or Wenninger as the headliner no matter who they deal with. FV45 or FV40+, plus some depth.
Why wouldn’t Stearns have a plan? It’s crazy hearing all these Mets fans questioning Stearns (elsewhere on the innerwebs) like they think he doesn’t think things through.
I’m a fan of his but I just hope part of the plan isn’t a Jeff McNeil/Goldy platoon at first base isn’t part of the plan as Tim Healey said it could be.
If they sign Kyle Tucker they can do whatever they want at first base next year. Doesn’t matter one bit if they play McNeil at first or in left.
I think McNeil is definitely gone. The Semien deal sealed that. I think Lindor is such a positive vibes guy, and him and the team just got sick of McNeil slamming his bat every time he popped out. And I can get McNeil’s frustration, but other players get tired of seeing that. The same thing happened with Jefferies – the act just wears thin.
My guess on 1B is they want to sign Bellinger, put him in the OF, have a 1B platoon with Vientos and Baty (or just gamble on Vientos outright), and if both players struggle, they can put Belly at 1B and hope one of the OF kids is ready by Memorial Day to take over.
That leaves 3B wide open, and I don’t have an answer for that. Maybe they gamble on a full season with Mauricio under Lindor’s tutelage. Maybe they try to get a cheap reclamation guy like Ha-Seong Kim.
Gregg Jeffries now there’s a blast from the past! I was a big fan when he first came up and my dad bought me a poster of Jeffries. I felt bad for him over how the vets treated him. McNeil is definitely high strung but I’m not bothered by his tantrums at least like others are.
It’s true Jeffries didn’t necessarily get a fair shake, it was a case of the vets trying to hang on vs this young upstart looking to become the face of the franchise. The team’s results spoke for themselves.
No surprise he put up by far his best year as a Cardinal.
I don’t know, man, watching the man smile through awkward press conferences? There’s something off about him.
“I think the contract the O’s gave Alonso is two years too many”
How quickly we’ve gone from “It’s a totally normal thing to sign a 29-year-old to an 11-year deal” to “You can’t seriously expect the Mets to give five years to a 31-year-old in his prime.”
Sad to see him go, even if the Mets’ decision not to bid that high (and that many years down the aging curve) probably makes sense even in Cohen-adjusted bucks. But I’m happy for Pete that he’s ended up playing someplace where he’ll have fun padding his HR count to an absurd degree.
It’s certainly shaping up to be a weird offseason for the Mets — holding the line and refusing to spend extra on fan-favorite players is not a recipe for hot-stove success in Queens. (Have to disagree with the article and point out that the “face of the franchise” is clearly still Lindor, though.)
I suspect we’re going to see Cody Bellinger as the consolation-prize first baseman at this point.
Also mark this one up as a win for Boras. Pete went to him asking for more money than the 7 year deal he turned down. It took a while but he got him way more. Same with Chapman
Betting on yourself can work, you just gotta keep performing
Good move for Baltimore. I subscribe to the WARP view that a truly elite hitter – which I believe Alonso to be – is extremely valuable even if he doesn’t play a valuable position. If you’re a WARP absolutist, then the Orioles just signed a top 10 position player from 2025, who I don’t think is showing any signs of decline at the moment. The Orioles need to win now, and they added a guy who is going to be their best or second-best hitter for the next three or so years, someone who a championship team can easily write into the cleanup spot.
Ironically, I think David Stearns may be falling into the pit that Mike Elias did last year: not wanting to give out a “bad deal”. Unfortunately, the laws of supply and demand necessitate that you overpay to get a top free agent, and if Stearns wants to win in 2026, he’s going to have to make a move that hurts a bit in 2030.
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Mets just decide to take a step back this year. I think Stearns wants to build the team around Soto according to his own philosophies, with no incessant loyalty to past players, and there are so many holes on this roster to make it a legit World Series contender next year.
Stearns is clearly making a pivot to improve their defense with the Nimmo for Semien trade. This aligns with that move, as Alonso and Soto are both terrible defenders. I would have the Mets as the frontrunners for Kyle Tucker. If they sign him and Valdez or Suárez then they’re a better team despite sacrificing some fan favorites.
What’s the Andrew Friedman line? If you are rational about every free agent you’ll come up third on every free agent.
Stearns’ mistake with Alonso was not giving him a deal last year. When his market never materialized he couldve got him for 5 years (would be only 4 now) for way less than what he just signed
Well he probably thought Alonso was in decline last offseason with Pete’s back to back 120ish wRC+ in 23 and 24. I thought so too with his exit velo and hard hit rates going down but he turned it around this year.
Right, well if youre not going to sign a guy while his value is depressed and then youre not going to sign him when its peaking…youre just not gonna sign him
He actually absorbed most of the risk in the deal he gave him. If Pete immediately cratered like people seemed to think was a real possibility, he was still on the hook for 3 years of him at a pretty high number
This ends any thoughts of playing Basallo at 1B with any regularity because one of the other things about Alonso is he doesn’t miss games. If I’m not mistaken, he’s working on a 415 game consecutive games played streak and has played 1,008 of a possible 1,032 games in his career with 933 of those being starts at 1B.
That thought already ended when Elias tendered Mountcastle. Since Ryan is a dramatically better defender at first base than Alonso, I would expect Pete to spend most days at DH unless Mountcastle’s bat fails to rebound.
I honestly wonder if Basallo is trade bait. It would be super out of character for Elias but then again so is this.
I beg you to stop saying this. I have corrected you about this so many times that you’re going to give me an aneurysm. Elias offered Burnes $180 million over four years last winter. Elias also made nine figure offers to Fried and Snell. Elias offered Schwarber $150 million over five years before the Phillies matched it. The narrative that Elias doesn’t want to spend is completely fictional and always has been.
And no, Basallo is not trade bait. He’s a 21 year old catcher signed through 2034 who will be eased into the lineup slowly.
Signing Pete Alonso to a massive 5 year deal and trading four years of Grayson Rodriguez for one year of Taylor Ward are way out of character for him. These are totally different than offering a huge deal to the consensus best pitcher on the market.
No, it isn’t. Elias increased Baltimore’s payroll by more last season than every other team except the Dodgers. He gave $49.5 million to Tyler O’Neill despite O’Neill being injury prone. He didn’t just make a massive offer to Burnes, he also made nine figure offers to Fried and Snell. He also offered $150 million to Schwarber, which the Phillies then matched. Signing Pete Alonso was absolutely not out of character.
As for Rodriguez, I think that deal was incredibly dumb, but he’s traded prospects for one year rentals before. He did that with Burnes. It’s not out of character.
Absolutely nothing you’re talking about is in any way out of character for Mike Elias. It’s against what you have incorrectly believed his character to be, as you have repeatedly called him a prospect hoarder only for me to provide numerous examples proving you wrong. You clearly don’t follow the Orioles at all, as you didn’t even know that Elias had signed Basallo through 2034.
You seem to really believe what you’re saying and you clearly care more about this than I do, so I probably should just stop arguing with you. But I cannot think of five front offices that are more conservative than the Orioles when it comes to moves like this, at least before this offseason (this offseason is very different so far). The Rockies were before they all got fired, and the Guardians and Pirates are too. And that’s all I got.
You can keep on providing examples that run counter to Elias being conservative but all front offices do that stuff, and typically do it way more than the Orioles. So normal it is barely noticeable. And this is why we keep talking past each other. You’re trying to falsify a statement by showing counter examples, comparing the Orioles to a binary statement that they always behave a certain way and showing that there are cases that don’t fit the narrative. But what I’m saying is not that he doesn’t do it, but that he does it less and a *lot* less in the context of his roster being so unbalanced.
Think of your favorite band. Now imagine someone who loves music but has completely the wrong impression about the members, their manager, and the songs they create. They keep making statements about your favorite band that aren’t even remotely true, so you provide information to correct them. Now imagine that the person doesn’t listen and keeps repeating the same false impression they had initially even though you already proved them wrong over and over and over again.
That gets frustrating. I respect your knowledge on baseball in general but you clearly know nothing about the Orioles, yet you won’t listen to someone who knows the team extremely well.
And this is exactly what I mean. Mike Elias is not conservative. He never has been conservative. To be fair, you aren’t the only one who has the mistaken impression, so when that false narrative keeps getting repeated in articles, you feel like your view was validated even though the evidence conclusively proves it wrong.
Mike Elias has made 38 trades since 2019. That’s not conservative. He signed seven free agents last winter, which was more than everyone but the Mets and Dodgers. That’s not conservative. He tried to give the largest AAV non-Ohtani pitching contract in MLB history. That’s not conservative. He offered nine figure deals to Snell and Fried. That’s not conservative. There is literally no evidence that he is conservative, yet you keep describing him that way no matter how many times I prove you wrong.
No, we are not talking past each other. You have repeatedly proven that you do not know what you are talking about when it comes to the Orioles. I’m not providing counter examples, I am providing evidence to back up my statements. You don’t. You make claims but never present any evidence whatsoever to back them.
You repeatedly insisted that Kjerstad was being blocked when he wasn’t. You repeatedly insisted that Elias hoards prospects even though he made multiple trades involving prospects to improve the major league roster. You repeatedly insisted that Elias wasn’t developing pitching and was just banking on trading for pitching when Baseball America identified the Orioles under Elias as being top three in best stuff for their minor league pitchers.
Your statements regarding Mike Elias and the Baltimore Orioles are consistently inaccurate. I don’t understand why you won’t listen to any of the information I am providing to educate you.
Okay, well, I tried.
No, you didn’t, which is precisely my point.
You have never presented a single piece of evidence, much less a persuasive argument, for Mike Elias being one of the most conservative executives in MLB. You have simply asserted it as a truth and then repeated that claim despite me providing a wealth of evidence proving you wrong.
For whatever reason, the Orioles are your blind spot, as nearly everything you write about the team is completely wrong. It’s just weird to me that you keep repeating things that were already proven wrong instead of listening to someone who knows a lot more than you do.
Mike Elias is EXTREMELY conservative (often to a fault) in all aspects of management. The past month+ has been extremely out of character for him and makes me suspect owner meddling/influence.
This is obvious to all but the most blind fan boys of the front office. But of course, Orioles fans and having delusional hopes kind of go hand in hand.
Signed, an Orioles fan.
There is literally no evidence to support this claim. By all means, make my day and try to present an actual argument that Elias is conservative. Just stating it with no evidence is a waste of everyone’s time.
38 trades since 2019 is more than all but a handful of teams. Seven free agent signings last winter was more than all but two teams.
You have this backwards. Delusional doomer fans who constantly think everything is going wrong and the front office never does anything right are the ones who make the laughably ignorant claim that Mike Elias is unreasonably conservative and never does anything.
I am not a Mike Elias stan. I wrote that the Kjerstad signing was dumb because he struggled against draftable pitchers at Arkansas and feasted on pitchers who would never be professionals. I noted his performance against Cade Cavalli when Arkansas played Oklahoma and Kjerstad looked completely overmatched. I also wrote that the Charlie Morton signing was a terrible idea. Recently, I wrote that the Grayson Rodriguez trade has a chance to go down as one of the worst trades of the last twenty years.
I criticize Mike Elias when he actually deserves it, however, the evidence clearly shows that he is not conservative.
Signed, an Orioles fan who actually knows what he’s talking about.
Why so hostile?
Damn this is really giving off Mike Elias burner account vibes. If you just replace “Elias” with “I” throughout this, it sounds like an embattled GM trying to make his case. There are definitely FO lurkers here, but I didn’t expect to see Mike Elias.
Mike – word to the wise. Just make it about the Angelos not being willing to spend. you’ve got time to make up for it with this new hedgefund money
No, the real problem is that the FanGraphs comments section used to be full of people who actually did research and knew what they were talking about. Sadly, the current denizens are about as informed as Baumann’s articles.
Mayo is much much more likely to move than Basallo due to the extension Basallo signed last season, fwiw
Mayo has zero value.
Okay, I was a little harsh on Mayo. Mayo is in a similar position right now to Curtis Mead at the trade deadline. He has some value, just not enough to trade for an upgrade.
Kjerstad is the one who has zero value.
On his own? Maybe not. He hasn’t done anything for his value to decrease outside of 2024 proving his is not capable of playing 3rd. Growing pains at the MLB level are to be expected, and he showed signs of adjustments in the second half
A 1B-only guy who just put up a 103 wRC+ in his third tour of AAA and a 95 wRC+ in the majors isn’t going to be the hottest ticket on the market.
I know you corrected yourself, but I think this is still pretty low on Mayo. “Former top-25 prospect with big power gets his strikeouts under control and starts hitting as a sophmore” seems like a reasonable narrative that could be easily bought into.
In September he was .301/.393/.548 with a 28.6 K%. For the entire second half he was .223/.316/.424 (109 wRC+) with 29.7 K%. Not amazing, but I think a team could reasonably look at that plus the tools and come to the conclusion that this is a major league regular with notable upside. He’s not returning someone like Gore, but he could be a sizeable chunk of the package that does.
He was a Top 25 prospect on the basis that he would play 3B or corner OF, though.
And rake. It’s too soon to give up on the bat entirely but you will need a lot of patience, and the Orioles are now firmly in win-now mode.
There are not that many teams who are looking to take on a project with the end goal of having an R/R 1B. What is the median outcome for him? Probably something like slightly below average defense at first, 25 homers, and a .320 OBP? Probably about a 115 wRC+ over 600 PAs, that’s probably about 1.5 fWAR. Not terrible but not someone who is going to move the needle on any upgrade they want.
Indeed.
Just saying that the Top 25 ranking was based on him having a few routes to value.
“Rakes and stays at 3B” – 65 PV
“Rakes and moves to RF” – 60 PV
“Rakes and moves to 1B” – 55 PV
“Hit tool exposed but stays at 3B” – 55 PV
“Hit tool exposed and moves to RF” – 50 FV
Where we are now is “Hit tool exposed and moved to 1B.”
“RHH platoon 1B/DH” is a 40/45.
That’s a pretty large exaggeration
I think Adley is more likely to be traded. And Cowser/Mayo are more likely than Adley IMO.
Adley isn’t getting traded. Basallo is nowhere near ready to handle 100+ games behind the plate. He is still a work in progress defensively.
For the record, Scott Boras ended up getting Pete Alonso $50.5 million more over his age 29-35 seasons than if he accepted the Mets’ extension offer in 2023.
Never convince yourself that Boras isn’t the best to ever do it.
Great point.
How much of the credit should be allocated to Boras, and how much to Alonso who in 2025 jumped his wRC+ by 20 points, and increased his WAR over the average of the prior two years by 50%?
I don’t think I’m going too far out on a limb by suggesting that if Alonso had turned in a year in 2025 that looked like the previous two, most of that $50M extra wouldn’t have materialized.
That was the point of the last contract, though.
Alonso was confident he had a better platform season, and he did.
But it was the having of the season that created the value, not some master strategy by Boras.
Unless we believe that Boras has some ability to get his clients to play significantly better in a walk year.
But the contract bought him three tries at having that “walk year”!
Aaron Judge chuckles at that pittance.
Boras is the best except when he isn’t. It can be tempting to jump from him being the best agent to the worst one from one offseason to the next. But it’s probably better to think of him as the most *talented* and *innovative* agent who—like a gambling addict—wants one more dopamine hit and thinks he is never going to lose.
Peter Griffin whoa whoa meme.
I, too, have now watched Mr. Met fall off the stage at the Lumineers concert more than 500 times. Thanks for the link, Michael! 😂😂😂
This is incorrect. The Athletic editor who wrote that headline should be scolded, as Rosenthal reported in the piece that “the Orioles’ push essentially forced the Phillies to offer the same terms, one source said.” Matt Gelb later confirmed the dance steps: Schwarber took the Orioles’ offer to the Phillies, who matched. Yes, the Phillies matched the Orioles, not the other way around, so it never fit as a “we tried” effort.
Let’s get the facts right and adjust our priors accordingly.
Well, look at the byline here…
I’m amazed at how many times I’ve read that misinformation today. Orioles were first at 5/150, and Phillies matched it. Reading comprehension is lost on some people, it seems. And the “Orioles are cheap” narrative drives it…smh.
Good for Pete, hopefully the O’s don’t let him play first base too often, lest he get their pitchers injured as well.
Ryan Mountcastle is an above average defender at first base, so if his bat gets back to the ~110 wRC+ area where it always was before last season then I would expect him to start most of the games there with Alonso as the primary DH. Coby Mayo is also still in the mix unless he gets moved for pitching.
Unlike the Díaz situation I completely understand why the Mets didn’t want to go to this level. They’re probably desperately hoping that Soto’s outfield defense improves to “okay” in the short term but if he winds up as a DH within the next five years giving Alonso a deal that long would be a colossal waste of money.
I saw Willson Contreras’ name as an option in another comment and that would seem to be a great option for the Mets. At least I think that would make more sense than Alex Bregman, who would make the team better but they do theoretically have an option at 3B now. Yandy Diaz would also be great for them but he would cost more than Contreras, who they might be able to get without surrendering a real prospect.
I suppose they could also sign Kyle Tucker, who is arguably a better hitter than Alonso today, younger, and can play a position well. Would take a deal twice as long as Alonso’s but might be able to get him for the same AAV. Also wouldn’t preclude an upgrade at first.
I know the whole tell em Wash thing, but Soto is painfully slow despite leading the league in sbs. He also clearly has some of the best hand eye coordination ever. He’s worked out in practice at first base for years. Harper was a bad outfielder, but not Soto level bad. Tbf Harper had work at catcher, ss, pitcher and CF in college albeit a juco. But he made transition pretty seamless. There are a lot of guys who can’t do the outfield 1st base thing, but just from an eye test Soto seems like a guy whose more likely to be able to. Obviously nothing is a given, but I’d say Tucker and Soto at 1st makes the most sense
I have been kind of surprised Soto hasn’t moved to first yet. He’s so similar to Joey Votto in so many ways but he’s clearly trying to stay in the outfield even though the results have been uninspiring most of the time.
I think his value as a hitter has interfered with this for a long time now. While he was a controllable asset with massive trade value, teams didn’t want to reduce his apparent value by making his fielding into a project. While he was a free agent, no one wanted to pay him gazillions of dollars to make his fielding into a project. And now that he’s under contract, no one wants to risk displeasing their superstar by suggesting he take on the project. It may have to wait for an injury or some other obvious “cause” now, when they can present it to him as a necessity, and point to Harper.
Peter out is what I expect his career to do next.
I understand why you were misled by a poorly written headline, but you really should have read the rest of the article because Baltimore offered $150 million over five years to Schwarber first. His agent then took the offer to Philadelphia, who matched it.
Ben Clemens wrote an article this past February noting that the Orioles were “the team who increased its payroll by the most from 2024 to 2025” until the Dodgers passed them. And that’s without even considering that Elias offered $180 million over four seasons with no deferrals to Corbin Burnes, which would have been the highest AAV for any non-Ohtani pitcher in the history of the sport.
As for Alonso, this is very clearly an overpay, but I’m ok with it. Sometimes you have to spend more than you want in order to get what you need, and the Orioles needed a consistent middle of the order hitter to pair with Henderson. Pete also provides some veteran leadership while addressing the lineup’s weakness against left-handed pitching.
I thought the whole point of loading up on tons of young hitters like this was that you didn’t need to do things like sign a likely DH to a 5 year deal.
I am wondering if Elias is feeling the heat. He’s done a great job getting lots of young talent in the system. But they really, really need pitching too and the expectations are getting pretty heavy. I don’t know what the next move is but I would find it really weird if he spent this amount of resources on a corner outfielder and a DH without making a move for a serious rotation upgrade. And that’s a lot for one offseason.
Clearly, otherwise he wouldn’t have done something completely insane like trade four years of the top pitching prospect from 2023 for one year of a 32 year old left fielder.
Indeed, we do. Fortunately, even after adding Alonso, the 2026 payroll is still $26 million short of last season’s payroll. Elias will almost certainly add one of Valdez, Suárez, Imai, King, or Gallen.
Agreed. Valdez seems like an Oriole.
Grayson is a career ~4 ERA pitcher who is never healthy. I would be flabbergasted if he makes 50 starts in the next three years. And if he does, he’s consistently proven that those starts will be just a bit better than cromulent. A third or fourth starter who makes only 15 starts a year is not a valuable piece.
Of all pitchers with at least 200 innings between 2023 and 2024, Grayson Rodriguez was fifth in Stuff+ behind Zack Wheeler, Hunter Greene, Corbin Burnes, and Tarik Skubal. He pitched 163.1 innings in 2023 between the majors and minors, then had 116.2 in 2024.
Four seasons of the 2023 consensus top pitching prospect who displayed excellent stuff over 238.2 major league innings is an extremely valuable piece. Missing all of 2025 was very frustrating, but when bone spurs were removed from his elbow last August, the surgeon examined his UCL and determined that it was fine. His lat is always going to be a problem due to the torque from his unusual throwing motion, but he’s an elite pitching prospect. Giving him away for one season of Taylor Ward was extremely dumb.
Think the article made a good point that the Orioles’ window is tighter than people think. They just missed the Playoffs and some of these “young hitters” are approaching free agency without much sign that they intend to stay
I’d bet Elias is gone if they miss this year. And Gunnar and Adley might be on the trade block
Also I know the offseason people tend to cool off and look at projections, but am I the only one thinks Adley might be cooked?
Rutschman actually hit the ball harder than ever in 2025, but too much of it was on the ground. He also chased less than ever and made contact more than ever. The AVG cratered because he had his lowest percentage of line drives.
To me, this is a perfect time for an extension both because his value is at its lowest point and because I don’t think Basallo ever becomes a plus defender.
Hugely encouraging sign as an O’s fan that Elias was finally willing sign a long-term contract. This deal will almost certainly not end well but as mentioned in the article, the first 3 years of this deal are really what matter for this current O’s core. However this still only really makes sense if they double down and get an impact starting pitcher or two to go with Alonso.
Dude just seems to like the color orange.
This is why I’m assuming Verlander signs with the Orioles to complete the orange team collection.
Yeah if I were a Phillies fan I too would find it fun that Stearns is now operating the Mets like the Brewers
As a Brewers fan I knew the only way Stearns was re-signing Alonso was if Cohen made him. It violates one of his central ethos as an executive; I’m not stating for or against, but that’s his track record. If he platoon 1B with Quad-A guys and scrape by, that will be the plan.
This seems like a pretty bad use of resources. Dylan Cease at what the Blue Jays paid would have fit better. I suspect the same will be true of Framber Valdez
Also the 2019 Nats would have been a much better team with Bryce Harper than Patrick Corbin. They could definitely have won the World Series.
I know there is no study on this, but when you see someone act how Framber did I would hope my team would stay well clear of him. Pre rape Bauer throwing the ball over the wall was much better than intentionally hitting your own teammate with a baseball
I don’t think your read on the Schwarber contract was accurate; from all accounts I’ve read, the Phillies let him negotiate with other teams, then matched the best deal he got. Then apparently Schwarber’s side went back to the O’s to see if they’d sweeten the pot and they declined. I think it’s relevant that the Orioles were the ones to make the offer rather than coming back and saying, “oh, we’ll match that deal if you come here!”
Has anyone done reporting as to how Pete managed to increase his EV, barrel, hardhit%? He’s not a torpedo bat user I don’t think.
He worked with some analytics folks on Boras’ payroll to adjust his approach. It worked for April where he hit like Juan Soto and then after that he went back to the guy who everyone said was declining
Regarding Chris Davis, I’ve heard his downfall had something to do with MLB banning his ADHD medications and instead of getting a medical exception, he switched to something else instead and that didn’t take and then his whole game went kablooey.
Ok now explain Glenn Davis
This is a strange situation for me to try to understand. First of all I am one of the biggest fans of both Schwarber and Alonso. In today’s game where more scoring is the direct result of the home run than ever in the game’s history I see much more value in this type of player and couldn’t care whether they are DH’s or right-right 1st basemen. Goldy is headed for the Hall and Vladito showed everybody just how well-rounded a player he has become. Let us see if Schwarber ages like Big Papi and Nelson Cruz before hinting that he is ready to collapse. ZIPS has already written his obit but I prefer to wait and see.
That intro leads to my conundrum. These are two outstanding hitters and I believe they both have a lot of good baseball ahead of them but the two virtually identical contracts are enough to drive a person, who thinks value should be at the top of the list when money is spent, to the rubber room. In both cases, the AAV is too high and the contracts are for too many years. From what I have seen so far it appears that the entire industry has decided to shoot for the moon in 2026 and ignore any and all penalties for exceeding the luxury tax because everything might blowup in 2027.
Inflation is a thing and these contracts were very close to what the consensus expectations were.
I believe mlbtr had Alonso getting a 4 year deal worth 110 million. I think Ben was close to therein his contract projections iirc.
Great fit…Random but Gunnar Henderson’s probably my current favorite non-Cubs player. FA 2029! Rutschman’s up there too…Also am interested in trading for Mayo to some extent
“But here’s the eternal question when a team — especially one with money — lets a key player walk: What are you going to do with the savings?”
Well, if one takes a look at the Red Sox and sees what they did with their savings after letting a player like Devers ‘walk’, the answer is … do nothing. :/