Phillies Once Again Conquer Braves, Steal Game 1

The rematch of last year’s NLDS between Philadelphia and Atlanta started off the same way it did last October: with a surprising win by the underdog Phillies. They eked out three runs and held the Braves scoreless at home for the first time this year and the first time since August 28, 2021. It was also the Phillies’ seventh consecutive win in the opening game of a postseason series, putting them in the driver’s seat in the five-game series — again.

The biggest weakness of the Philadelphia roster that reached the World Series last year was their bullpen. But the Phillies quietly led all of baseball in pitching WAR this season thanks to a fantastic rotation and a much improved relief corps, with their ‘pen improving its adjusted ERA from 105 to 81. With Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola spent during the Wild Card round, the Phillies turned to Ranger Suárez to make the start in Game 1; he turned in a solid effort, lasting 3.2 innings and allowing just three baserunners while striking out four. When he ran into some trouble in the fourth inning, manager Rob Thomson used a quick hook on his starter and handed the game over to his bullpen. Six relievers went on to combine for 5.1 scoreless innings in an impressive display from the team’s most improved unit:

Instead of a dominating performance marked by tons of strikeouts, the Phillies were perfectly satisfied to allow Atlanta to aggressively put the ball in play. No team fared better than the Braves when making contact this year — they led baseball in both wOBA and expected wOBA on contact — but thanks to some phenomenal defense and a healthy dose of contact management, they were frustrated all night long.

The loss squanders a fantastic start by Spencer Strider. He pitched seven strong innings with eight strikeouts and looked to be in control of the game for long stretches. The first run scored in the fourth inning after Strider made a throwing error on a pickoff move to first, moving Bryce Harper over to second. With two strikes and two outs in the inning, Bryson Stott delivered the big hit with a single to left, scoring Harper. Strider’s only other blemish on the night was this rocket off Harper’s bat in the sixth:

That first pitch slider had an exit velocity of 115.3 mph; the hardest-hit batted ball Strider had allowed in his career before Game 1 had an exit velo of 111.8 mph. Those two big hits ruined what was otherwise a very dominant start. Relying on his two-pitch mix, Strider induced 22 whiffs on the night — nine with his fastball and 13 with his slider — for an overall whiff rate of 44%. Of his 94 pitches, 37.2% went for a called or swinging strike. He did everything he could to put his team in position to walk away with the victory.

The same couldn’t be said for the Braves’ bats. They generated plenty of traffic throughout the game, but when it came down to finding the big hit, they came up empty handed. In the fourth inning, they loaded the bases before Michael Harris II struck out to end the frame. They threatened again in the next inning, when a pair of singles put runners on the corners with just one out. But Seranthony Domínguez struck out both Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley to quell the uprising. Finally, in the eighth, Acuña and Riley reached on a walk and a single to start the inning. A loud fly out off the bat of Matt Olson moved Acuña to third, but Trea Turner turned a brilliant double-play to end the frame:

Philadelphia’s batters came into the game with a clear strategy to put pressure on Atlanta: Any time they earned a baserunner, they were aggressive on the basepaths. The Phillies were in the middle of the pack baserunning-wise, with just a 2.7 BsR during the regular season, but they had their runners moving early and often. That aggressiveness erased a leadoff double from Kyle Schwarber in the first inning when he was cut down trying to make it to third on a groundball to short, but Turner had a pair of stolen bases, while Harper, Stott, and Brandon Marsh each had one, and J.T. Realmuto was caught trying to swipe a sixth bag. Strider’s throwing error came after Harper broke for second on the prior pitch.

It was a surprising strategy considering Sean Murphy had the 11th-best throwing arm behind the plate this year according to Statcast, though it didn’t make a difference in the eighth. Turner singled with one out and quickly stole second and third. Then Harper walked and stole second base. Stott walked a batter later to load the bases, setting the scene for the most controversial sequence of the night:

On a 2-1 pitch from Pierce Johnson, Realmuto fouled off a slider and immediately motioned to the home plate umpire Brian O’Nora. Catcher’s interference was called and Turner scored from third for free. The Braves immediately challenged, and it looked like all the replay angles showed Realmuto’s bat clearing Murphy’s glove without incident. The call on the field stood — replay review couldn’t find conclusive evidence to overturn it — and the Atlanta crowd erupted into boos and jeers. Watching Murphy’s reaction to the call seemed to indicate he knew that something had happened, as he didn’t argue with O’Nora; he simply turned and resignedly slapped his glove on his thigh.

Because the quirks of postseason scheduling give the NL teams an off day on Sunday, the Phillies will enter Game 2 with a rested bullpen and their two best starters lined up to take the hill. That has shifted the ZiPS game-by-game odds for the series in Philadelphia’s favor, giving them a 55% chance of advancing to the NLCS. Meanwhile, the Braves desperately need to get their bats rolling and will hope that Max Fried suffers no ill effects after being on the injured list for the last few weeks.