Presenting a Mock Non-Tenderizing by Eric Longenhagen November 20, 2020 Before I get to the names, if you missed Monday’s post, you’re going to want to read that straight away. Please know that this doesn’t preclude anyone else on staff from offering their own opinions on this matter. I also think readers should know how I put the list together. Similar to the recipe for my mock drafts, I’m using a combination of informed speculation by industry folks and myself, with some concrete dope mixed in. My own speculation is driven by: Weighing each player’s ability and importance to their team against their projected arbitration number (duh). How their team/front office has behaved in the non-tender market before. Whether the team behaves in a cost-conscious way, generally. Whether the team has behaved in a cost-conscious way lately due to the pandemic (ops layoffs, decisions on player options, etc.). If there are major league-ready prospects behind said player. Miscellaneous, subjective stuff, like strongly-perceived player/team discord and whatnot. Let’s take a quick peek at each club’s number of non-tenders since 2015 so we’re all on the same page for the second category above. The table below is sortable. Non-Tender by Club Since 2015 Team Non-tenders Notes D-backs 10 Mostly injured pitching, one toolsy bust (Souza), and several third or fourth catchers. Dodgers 3 Bottom-of-the-roster pitching. Padres 11 Most of these occurred five-ish years ago during peak rebuild. Rockies 6 The only player non-tendered lately is Sam Howard. Giants 9 Six of these came in 2019. Cardinals 3 None since 2016 Brewers 11 Eight players over the last two years. Cubs 13 Often marginal pitching Reds 13 Often light-hitting types. Phillies 4 One hitter from each of the non-catching categories above. Braves 10 All have been hitters since 2017. Marlins 1 Henderson Alvarez coming off shoulder surgery Nationals 4 Injured arms (Craig Stammen, Koda Glover) and light-hitting Ben Revere. Mets 1 Wilmer Flores. Yankees 2 Injured pitching (Domingo Germán, Jacob Lindgren) Red Sox 3 Two last offseason, one (Marco Hernandez) essentially replaced by a Rule 5 pick. Blue Jays 7 Often marginal pitching and catching Orioles 6 None yet under Mike Elias. Rays 3 Somewhat surprising given their market size. White Sox 11 A mix, but mostly injured pitching. Indians 5 Marginal pitching, Kevin Plawecki. Twins 4 C.J. Cron, Robbie Grossman, marginal pitching. Tigers 5 James McCann, marginal pitching. Royals 11 Semi-hyped prospects who plateaued in the upper-minors. Rangers 13 Almost all pitching, most of it injured or which fell short of expectations. Astros 4 Mike Fiers, Chris Carter, Aaron Sanchez, Chris Hermann Mariners 4 Two high-variance bats and injured/marginal pitchers. Athletics 7 Pitching that’s both injured and relatively expensive (Graveman, Treinen, Fiers) Angels 6 Mostly marginal arms. I’m not just touching on the players for whom there’s an argument to non-tender; I’m trying to predict these as best as I can. Like my mock drafts, the goal is to try to predict what will happen, not say what I think should happen. I don’t even bother mentioning some arbitration-eligible stars, like Cody Bellinger and Lucas Giolito, for reasons I hope are obvious. These go alphabetical by team name. Los Angeles Angels Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely Hansel Robles Noé Ramirez N/A Justin Anderson Keynan Middleton N/A Arb-eligible Cam Bedrosian and Ryon Healy have already been outrighted off the roster. Hansel Robles lost two ticks off his fastball during a rough 2020 and is due for a raise up to the $4 million range. Justin Anderson had Tommy John in July. I think both are strong candidates. Closer to the line are relievers Noé Ramirez and Keynan Middleton. Ramirez ran a 3.00 ERA in 2020 but his peripherals were troubling, he’s now out of options, his velocity fell for the second consecutive season, and his meal ticket changeup missed fewer bats than it did in 2019. Middleton was so wild that he was sent to the Alternate Site for much of September, but he was throwing much harder than when he first returned from TJ in ‘19. Both Middleton and Ramirez are projected to earn about $1 million in arbitration. If forced to pick one, I’d take Middleton’s upside over what, up until last year, had been Ramirez’s consistency. As such, I’m projecting Ramirez to be non-tendered, but Middleton to be tendered. I think Hector Yan, Chris Rodriguez and Packy Naughton could play bullpen roles next year, though Rodriguez worked as a starter during instructs. Oakland Athletics Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely Chad Pinder Tony Kemp Sean Manaea Several of Oakland’s key players, like Matt Chapman, Mark Canha and Matt Olson, are arb-eligible this year and their collective raises project to increase Oakland’s payroll by about $30 million. The unpredictable health of A.J. Puk, Daulton Jefferies, and James Kaprielian underscores the importance of tendering Chris Bassitt, and probably Sean Manaea. I think an org with a similar history of financial constraint but more pitching depth would at least consider parting with a strike-throwing fourth starter sort like Manaea, who is projected to make $5.3 million, but he seems like a clubhouse culture cornerstone, and the team’s tenuous depth is also a factor. Marcus Semien’s likely departure combined with the payroll increase makes Oakland’s middle infield picture very foggy. It’s possible one or both of Tony Kemp and Chad Pinder is non-tendered. Both will be 29 next season. Kemp makes contact and plays a good second base but lacks any modicum of power. Pinder has run a sub-.300 OBP the last two years and three of the last four. He’s projected to make $2.3 million. His offensive ceiling is higher than Kemp’s, but Kemp (who bats left and has a good glove, but is second base-only) is a more obvious complement to Vimael Machín (who switch-hits and is a mediocre defender, but plays the whole infield) and Sheldon Neuse (a righty power bat with a big arm, who mostly plays third base). It’s perhaps telling, however, that Neuse was never given an opportunity to seize the second base job last year even as Kemp, Pinder and Machín struggled and Jorge Mateo and Franklin Barreto were shipped off. Their in-house middle infield mix without Pinder/Kemp is longtime upper-level performer Nate Orf, Machin, Neuse, non-roster invitees Pete Kozma and Jacob Wilson 윌슨, and young Nick Allen. Allen could play a great big league shortstop tomorrow but doesn’t have to be added to the 40-man until next offseason. Even after having added two relief prospects to the roster today, Oakland still has five vacant 40-man spots. Houston Astros Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely N/A N/A Aledmys Díaz Arb-eligible Roberto Osuna has already been outrighted off the roster. Aledmys Díaz’s arb projection is close to $3 million and he is in the “ultra-aggressive hitter” bucket I wrote about earlier this week, but Houston doesn’t have any great in-house options to replace him and free agent departures have cleared a lot of payroll, so I think he’ll be retained. Toronto Blue Jays Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely Travis Shaw A.J. Cole N/A Especially with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. keen on playing third again next year, Travis Shaw is a likely non-tender. A.J. Cole is out of options but is only projected to make about $1 million. He made some tweaks to his repertoire in his first year with the Jays and perhaps the team wants to explore a full year of this new approach to pitching, but I think the number of potential free agent upgrades will entice Toronto to part with Cole. Atlanta Braves Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely Luke Jackson Johan Camargo Adam Duvall At the start of the year I’d have guessed Adam Duvall would be a non-tender candidate but he played well, and with Marcell Ozuna’s contract expiring, Duvall is too important to non-tender, even at nearly $6 million. Johan Camargo is tough. He’s slated to make just north of $2 million and the Braves didn’t think he was good enough to make the initial playoff roster, but they also don’t have a clear in-house replacement for him. Luke Jackson is out of options and lost two ticks off his fastball last season, so I think he’ll be non-tendered. Milwaukee Brewers Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely Omar Narváez/Manny Piña N/A N/A Alex Claudio N/A N/A Corey Knebel N/A N/A Jace Peterson N/A N/A Ben Gamel N/A N/A Here’s an org where early-offseason financial indicators (lots of declined options) combined with recent approach to this type of transaction probably means Milwaukee will be very active. I think the combination of Orlando Arcia playing pretty well and Luis Urías not makes it likely Arcia is tendered. If the Brewers are listening to offers for Josh Hader then they’re likely non-tendering Corey Knebel at about the same price. I expect one of Manny Piña or Omar Narváez to be cut loose while the other shares reps with Jacob Nottingham next year. Alex Claudio was non-tendered last year and I expect he will be again. St. Louis Cardinals Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely N/A N/A John Brebbia Brebbia is coming off of Tommy John, but at a projected $800,000 and without a huge wave of pitching prospects maturing behind him, he’s fairly safe. Chicago Cubs Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely José Martínez Kyle Schwarber Kris Bryant Albert Almora Jr. N/A N/A Dan Winkler N/A N/A The Cubs cut employees’ salaries in May and laid off more than 100 people last month, so this seems like a situation where payroll will be reduced pretty significantly. Front office folks I’ve spoken to about Kris Bryant don’t think he’ll be non-tendered but they do think the combination of his poor 2020 performance and 2021 salary (slated to be north of $20 million) have tanked his trade value. I think they’ll ultimately tender Kyle Schwarber at about $8 million, but that they’ll also look to move him between now and July. Arizona Diamondbacks Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely N/A Junior Guerra N/A Arizona declined to pick up Guerra’s $3.5 million option but they still retain his rights and will go to arbitration, where he’s projected to make an even $3 million. That’s perhaps a bit rich for a team that was rumored to not be interested in picking up Starling Marte’s option, but Arizona needs bullpen depth, there aren’t many D-backs pitching prospects who need to be put on the 40-man right now, and Guerra has been a pretty consistent middle-inning performer, so this is a tough call. Los Angeles Dodgers Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely N/A N/A Scott Alexander Alexander’s projected $1.1 million salary is nothing to the Dodgers, and while they have some young arms likely to be added to the 40-man, none of them are left-handed. In that same vein, Caleb Ferguson’s injury helps Alexander’s cause. San Francisco Giants Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely Tyler Anderson Jarlin García N/A Daniel Robertson N/A N/A This was the toughest team for me to nail down because the Giants have been cycling through marginal players looking for diamonds in the rough since the new regime has been in place, meaning a lot of their roster is comprised of players who’d ordinarily be candidates but who the Giants, who other teams in baseball expect to spend money this offseason, might want to try to develop. They may look at the open market and decide they can upgrade on some of the players who are already on the roster and non-tender guys like Darin Ruf or Donovan Solano, but I have them non-tendering pretty conservatively here. Cleveland Indians Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely Delino DeSheilds N/A Nick Wittgren Tyler Naquin N/A N/A I think we’ll see outfield turnover because the roster still has Oscar Mercado, Daniel Johnson, Josh Naylor, Franmil Reyes, Jake Bauers, etc. Wittgren wasn’t an intuitive potential non-tender for me and instead was mentioned as a possibility by some of my sources. Austin Hedges was, too, but I think Cleveland is too thin at catcher to truly consider him. Seattle Mariners Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely N/A N/A Tom Murphy Mitch Haniger, J.P. Crawford and Tom Murphy are the only arb-eligible players in Seattle and I expect all to be tendered a contract. Miami Marlins Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely José Ureña Richard Bleier N/A Jesús Aguilar Ryne Stanek N/A I think we’ll see some action here. José Ureña might be an interesting relief flier for someone, but I think $4 million is too rich for a Marlins team with new, leveraged ownership. With Lewin Díaz ready to step into a full-time role and Garrett Cooper also on the roster, I think Jesús Aguilar, at nearly $5 million, probably gets non-tendered. Richard Bleier and Ryne Stanek are tough calls. Miami’s roster is light on left-handed pitching and Bleier, for whom they recently traded, still has an option year left, so I think he’s a keeper at $1.3 million even though he doesn’t miss bats. Stanek was very wild last year and is, in my opinion, more vulnerable. New York Mets Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely Guillermo Heredia N/A N/A Perhaps this paragraph is longer without the team’s recent sale, but folks in baseball think the Mets are about to lay an organizational foundation similar to the Dodgers after parking lot king Frank McCourt sold them in 2012. Guillermo Heredia’s righty-hitting bench outfield profile is tough and he’s getting squeezed out by newly acquired Jose Peraza and Mallex Smith, so he’s the lone Met I consider likely to be non-tendered. Washington Nationals Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely N/A Joe Ross N/A Joe Ross, who opted out of the 2020 season, is the only candidate here. He’d ordinarily not be one at just $1.5 million but Washington’s early moves, including declining Adam Eaton’s option, point toward cost-cutting here. Baltimore Orioles Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely Hanser Alberto Pat Valaika Renato Núñez Other than Chris Davis, the Orioles don’t have any big multi-year commitments, and some of their early, minor moves (claiming Yolmer Sánchez and picking up José Iglesias’ option) indicate they’re not about to be hyper-frugal. They do have many players who fit into the player categories I mentioned on Monday and who’d be stronger non-tender candidates on different rosters. Hanser Alberto, Renato Núñez, Pat Valaika, and even Anthony Santander and Trey Mancini fit in the “Low OBP corner guy” bucket that’s usually vulnerable. Because Rylan Bannon (who was acquired in Manny Machado deal, and whose 40-man timeline has arrived) overlaps with Alberto (estimated $3.2 million) at 2B/3B, I’m pushing Alberto in as a non-tender candidate. Baltimore has a wave of viable 40-man pitchers eligible for this year’s Rule 5 Draft so perhaps some of the bottom of the roster gets lopped off (Thomas Eshelman, Jorge López). Shawn Armstrong is out of options and looks like a logical candidate on the surface but he added a slider/cutter and threw really well last year, so I think he’s more likely to be traded than non-tendered. San Diego Padres Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely Luis Perdomo Dan Altavilla Tommy Pham N/A N/A Greg Garcia N/A N/A Zach Davies There are a few internal candidates to replace Altavilla, who is out of options, including Mason Thompson, who looked great in the fall. With Mike Clevinger and Dinelson Lamet ailing, Zach Davies becomes more important to retain at north of $8 million. Tommy Pham didn’t play well this year but he’s an important cog when healthy and brings a certain competitive edge to the team that’s tough to replicate. Philadelphia Phillies Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely N/A Vince Velasquez N/A I think Vince Velasquez is an interesting change-of-scenery candidate. He’s talented and, to me, is clearly not suited to pitch as a traditional starter. The Phillies need bullpen help but for whatever reason, they’ve never tried Velasquez there. He’s had a tumultuous and frustrating tenure in Philly and the club has already outrighted and declined the options of several other players. Pittsburgh Pirates Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely Trevor Williams Adam Frazier Josh Bell/Colin Moran Erik González N/A N/A Michael Feliz N/A N/A Some of my thinking here is driven by Pittsburgh’s need to give at-bats to players who might be long-term pieces, like Cole Tucker and Ke’Bryan Hayes, which means clearing out some of the players who are similar to others on the roster but are also getting more expensive. With Hayes at third, it’s harder to find consistent at-bats for both Colin Moran and Josh Bell without sacrificing outfield reps for someone else, and the same is true of Pittsburgh’s several contact-oriented middle infielders. I think they’d like to trade as many of those guys as they can, including Bell and Frazier, both of whom they’d be selling low on, further muddying things. Texas Rangers Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely Danny Santana N/A N/A Danny Santana, at an estimated $3.6 million, probably goes. The rest of the Rangers’ arb cases — Joey Gallo, Rafael Montero, Isiah Kiner-Falefa— are obvious keepers. Tampa Bay Rays Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely Hunter Renfroe Ji-Man Choi Manny Margot N/A N/A Joey Wendle Chaz Roe has already been outrighted off the roster. I think Hunter Renfroe is a lock to be non-tendered, while Ji-Man Choi is on the line. The Rays have Yandy Díaz and Yoshi Tsutsugo, both of whom can play first base, and Nate Lowe’s statistical track record in the minors is really strong. But Choi is an important cultural component of the team and Lowe hasn’t looked good early in the Dominican Winter League (it’s only been one week), so it’s a tough call. I’ve had baseball folks mention Manuel Margot (if the Rays want to unload Kevin Kiermaier’s deal but he can’t be traded) and Joey Wendle (if the team wants to plug and play Vidal Brujan immediately) as possibilities, but I’m skeptical. Boston Red Sox Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely N/A Matt Barnes N/A I wondered if Boston might be a team poised to take advantage of a market flush with non-tendered role players as a way of accelerating their rebuild, but I was reminded by a source that this club declined Martín Pérez’s $6 million option earlier this month. The Sox have a couple of pitchers poised to be added to their 40-man (Connor Seabold, Jay Groome, Bryan Mata) but not so many that it’s a lock for the option-less Matt Barnes and Austin Brice to be non-tendered. At an estimated $4.7 million, Barnes is expensive for how wild and inconsistent he is. Tendering him means hoping he bounces back enough to flip during the summer, but I’m not sure half a year of Barnes nets you a prospect meaningful enough to tender him even if he does, so I’m predicting he gets cut loose. Cincinnati Reds Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely N/A N/A Archie Bradley Some of my sources have mentioned Archie Bradley as a possibility, but I think he pitched too well for the Reds to do that, especially with Michael Lorenzen moving into the rotation. Colorado Rockies Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely Jairo Diaz Jon Gray N/A N/A Tony Wolters/Elias Díaz N/A With Dom Nuñez on the 40-man and José Briceño brought in as an NRI, I think one of the two catchers from last year’s big league roster probably gets let go. Wolters is the pricier of the two at a projected $2 million. Diaz’s stuff was down last year and he’s out of options. I think the club would like to trade Jon Gray as part of what could be an epic tear down that also includes dealing Nolan Arenado. Kansas City Royals Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely N/A Maikel Franco N/A Another situation where the team is likely taking a couple weeks to evaluate a potential replacement in the Dominican Winter League, I think Kelvin Gutierrez is as good as Maikel Franco, who is projected to make roughly $6 million next year. Detroit Tigers Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely Daniel Norris Michael Fulmer Matt Boyd Buck Farmer N/A N/A This is largely a result of the Tigers have beaucoup young pitching to add to the 40-man. I think Matthew Boyd would be a possibility in a vacuum but in this situation it’d be an admission of how badly the Tigers whiffed on trading him during his peak value. Minnesota Twins Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely Eddie Rosario N/A N/A I think what happens here depends somewhat on whether the Twins think they can bring back Nelson Cruz and also how much they anticipate needing to spend to re-patch the holes in their pitching staff, but ultimately with Alex Kiriloff and Trevor Larnach nearly ready, I’d bet on Minnesota platooning Jake Cave with someone in left field rather than rostering Rosario. Chicago White Sox Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely Nomar Mazara Reynaldo Lopez Adam Engel Carlos Rodón N/A N/A There are just too many lumbering corner OF/DH types on the White Sox roster to keep Mazara around at just shy of $6 million, and you can copy and paste most of the Vince Velasquez paragraph from above as it relates to Rodón. Engel is a tough fit for the same reasons mentioned regarding Guillermo Heredia above, but his skills are a great compliment to those DH types I just mentioned. New York Yankees Non-Tender Candidates Likely Tough Call Unlikely N/A Gary Sánchez N/A People in the industry do think there’s a chance Gary Sánchez gets non-tendered. There are a lot of factors pushing and pulling here. Not that long ago, Sánchez was the best offensive catcher in baseball; more recently, he has struggled offensively, lumbered defensively, tipped pitches from behind the plate, and been benched in favor of Kyle Higashioka. It’s common for catcher offensive performance to wax and wane because they’re playing through constant bumps and bruises of assorted severity, but it isn’t typically to the degree Sánchez struggled in 2020. If, when he was a prospect, you’d have told me Sánchez would catch for five seasons and then need to move to first base, I’d have called that a great outcome for him and the Yankees. But moving him to first base now is complicated because Luke Voit, himself due for a raise of about $5 million, is better than the fungible 1B/DH types I talked about on Monday, and one of New York’s corner outfielders needs to occupy the DH spot every night. Non-tendering Sánchez would also mean the Yankees would need to bring in at least two catchers from outside the organization to pair with Higashioka and put on the 40-man as they lack viable in-house options behind him, none of whom has Sánchez’s ceiling, barring a pursuit of J.T. Realmuto. Sánchez’s relationship with the org dates back to his adolescence — nearly half his life to this point — and we can’t begin to fathom how complex that is, nor how it might inform the Yankees’ decision. I think they’ll retain him. Craig Edwards wrote about Sánchez in-depth here.