Prospect Watch: Revisiting Rule 5 Recommendations

Each weekday during the minor-league season, FanGraphs is providing a status update on multiple rookie-eligible players. Note that Age denotes the relevant prospect’s baseball age (i.e. as of July 1st of the current year); Top-15, the prospect’s place on Marc Hulet’s preseason organizational list; and Top-100, that same prospect’s rank on Hulet’s overall top-100 list.

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Back in late November 2013, I published a Rule 5 draft preview with some names of players that had intrigued me over the course of the previous season but had been left unprotected by their current organization. None of the players were subsequently selected and all remained with their original organization. Let’s have a look at a few of my favorites to see how they’re performing in 2014…

Ryan Tepera, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (Profile)
Level: Triple-A Age: 26 Top-15: N/A Top-100: N/A
Line: 26.1 IP, 22 H, 8 R, 34/13 K/BB, 2.39 ERA, 2.71 FIP

Tepera ranked as my No. 1 Rule 5 eligible player prior to last December’s draft. The right-hander spent the majority of his minor league career as an indistinguishable org arm before moving from the starting rotation to the bullpen last year.

The result of that move was a significant bump to his fastball velocity (into the mid 90s) and a sharper breaking pitching. When I saw the right-hander pitch in early April, he was struggling to command the ball in the cold weather and his control took a huge hit with 10 walks in 13.0 April innings. In May, he issued just three free passes in 12.1 innings while seeing his strikes for the month jump from 12 to 22.

Currently leading the American League East division in the standings, Toronto could be active on the trade market over the summer months and I continue to suggest that Tepera is a player worth acquiring; with three option years remaining he can offer a big league club a lot of flexibility to go along with a near-MLB-ready arm with the ceiling of a set-up man.

Giovanny Urshela, 3B, Cleveland Indians (Profile)
Level: Double/Triple-A Age: 22 Top-15: N/A Top-100: N/A
Line: .269/.318/.493, 8 HR, 13/38 BB/K, 1 SB

Known for having a steady glove at the hot corner, Urshela has generated more pop so far in 2014, first while repeating Double-A and then once he received a promotion to Triple-A. After producing just 23 doubles and eight home runs last year, he’s already compiled 15 two-base knocks and eight homers in less than half the games this season.

A free swinger — albeit one that makes above-average contact — this Colombia native needs to become more selective to fully tap into his full potential at the plate. Urshela likely doesn’t have first-division starter potential but I could see him developing into a solid bench player capable of handling both third and first base while playing solid defence at both positions.

Marco Hernandez, SS, Chicago Cubs (Profile)
Level: High-A Age: 21 Top-15: N/A Top-100: N/A
Line: .273/.310/.353, 1 HR, 8/29 BB/K, 2 SB

When I first laid eyes on Hernandez a couple of years ago, I knew nothing about him but he stood out more to me than some of the other “bigger named prospects” on the Cubs’ minor league club that I was watching. He’s not an overly physical player but he’s a good athlete and has solid actions at shortstop — even if he continues to make youthful mistakes and may eventually see more time at second base.

He’s a left-handed hitter and he’s struggled mightily against southpaws in 2014 (Splits: .205/.222/.250 vs LHP; .296/.339/.389 vs RHP) suggesting he could develop into a solid bench or platoon player if shielded from tough port-siders. Some added upper-body strength could help his overall game and create better gap pop but he’ll never be a power-hitter.