Qualifying Offer Deadline: A Rundown
Today is the first of the off-season’s many deadlines, as MLB has a pretty rigid schedule that determine the timing of various events over the winter. Today, being the fifth day after the end of the World Series, is the deadline for teams to extend qualifying offers to their own free agents, giving them the right to compensation if the player signs with another team this winter.
Last year, nine players received a qualifying offer of $13.3 million, and all nine rejected the contract and signed a larger deal thereafter. This year, the price of the qualifying offer has gone up to $14.1 million, and it seems likely that more than nine players will receive an offer. Here’s what we know so far.
Reportedly Will Get a Qualifying Offer
BOS: Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew
NYY: Robinson Cano, Hiroki Kuroda
ATL: Brian McCann
CIN: Shin-Soo Choo
CLE: Ubaldo Jimenez
KCR: Ervin Santana
PIT: A.J. Burnett
TEX: Nelson Cruz
SEA: Kendrys Morales
That’s 12 names that are more or less confirmed as receiving a qualifying offer, even if not all of them have been officially announced yet. And there very well could be several names added to that list, as there are players on the bubble who could still receive a qualifying offer before the day is out. Both Curtis Granderson and Carlos Beltran could very well end up receiving an offer from their original teams, and both look worthy of a $14 million salary for 2014, given their expected production and the amount of money that Major League teams have at the moment. It is possible that the Yankees (luxury tax concerns) and Cardinals (somewhat crowded OF) could decide that the offer isn’t worth the risk, but I’d bet on both players receiving the offer by the end of the day.
That would leave us with 14 players set to receive the qualifying offer. Of those 14, six of them would come from the Red Sox and Yankees, further proving that the free agent compensation system has little to do with promoting competitive balance and is far more of a price constraint on mid-level free agents. The qualifying offer is basically just a tax, and this winter is simply more evidence that any pretense of it being about distributing draft picks to low revenue teams who can’t afford to re-sign their free agents is a farce. The teams who can’t afford to re-sign their free agents generally can’t afford to let premium players reach free agency to begin with, instead opting to trade them prior to reaching free agency in order to obtain a better return than an end-of-first-round selection.
But, at this point, I don’t think even MLB is trying to sell free agent compensation as an agent of competitive balance anymore. It is pretty clearly a tax intended to drive down free agent salaries, and it seems that its purpose is generally understood publicly. While the price of the tax is small enough that it is unlikely to affect the bidding for stars like Cano or Ellsbury, it probably will have a negative effect on the price of the mid-tier players.
Will we see any of the 12 (or 14) accept the qualifying offer over the next week, after learning that having compensation attached nuked their market value? I think we might. Burnett looks like the most likely candidate to accept the qualifying offer, as he’s talked openly about either retiring or playing one more year in Pittsburgh, and doesn’t seem overly interested in exploring his options elsewhere, so taking the qualifying offer would simply end what should be a pretty easy negotiation, assuming he wants to play again in 2014.
Beyond Burnett, though, I think we could potentially see a few other possible accepting situations, with Curtis Granderson, Stephen Drew, and Kendrys Morales all potentially looking at markets that wouldn’t be too favorable with draft pick compensation attached.
Granderson will be 33 next March, spent half the year on the disabled list, and had the worst offensive season of his career in the games he did play in 2013. There’s certainly real potential for a bounce back season next year — Steamer projects +3.4 WAR per 600 plate appearances, for instance — but it’s likely a very short term value proposition, and teams have shown reluctance to part with the draft pick in exchange for a short term deal.
Even when Kyle Lohse’s market fell apart last year, and there was talk of him potentially signing a “pillow contract” to try and re-establish his market value with another strong year, few teams seemed interested in a one year deal because the price plus the compensation tax outweighed what they expected to get from Lohse over 180 innings. Granderson could very well be in the same boat, where his injuries and 2013 performance drive away those interested in a multi-year deal, and the compensation tax drives away teams who might be looking for a one year stop-gap. It seems unlikely that Granderson, with compensation attached, would actually be able to do much better than 1/14 on the free market, so he could very well take the deal and view it as his chance to have a rebound season before hitting the market again next year.
Drew is on the other side of that coin, having just completed his bounce back after a one year deal to re-establish his value, and is likely less interested in taking another one year deal given that he probably can’t raise his value much higher than it is now. 2013 Drew was likely the peak of what he can do now, and if he can’t get a multi-year deal coming off this performance, he might not ever get another one. But, even with a thin supply of shortstops on the market, Drew doesn’t look like the kind of player that teams will be lining up to sacrifice a draft pick for.
He turns 31 next March. Steamer projects him as a roughly an average player in 2014, and while the price of Major League players is going up, it’s hard to argue that average-ish players are worth outbidding a $14 million salary and paying the compensation tax. With Drew likely feeling some fondness for the Red Sox after having just won a World Series and seeing John Farrell stick with him despite his October struggles at the plate, a reunion for one more year seems like the best fit for both parties. And the easiest way for Drew to get that reunion while still receiving a substantial paycheck is to simply take the qualifying offer.
For Kendrys Morales, taking the qualifying offer would likely be much less of a thing to celebrate. Jon Heyman has previously reported that Scott Boras will reject the offer on Morales’ behalf, believing that he’s in line for a significant paycheck in a winter where good hitters are in short supply. I may be naive and underestimating the power of Scott Boras, but I still fail to see exactly where this magical big contract is going to come from.
For health reasons, Morales has to be viewed a DH — he can play the field irregularly, but not too many days in a row, due to his prior ankle injury — and as such, his market is limited to American League teams. And even at that, you can start crossing a bunch of AL teams off the list pretty quickly. The Astros aren’t giving up a valuable draft pick for an aging DH. The Rays, A’s, Indians, and Twins couldn’t afford Morales even if they wanted him. The Red Sox, Tigers, Blue Jays, White Sox, Royals, and Angels already have their DHs under contract for next year. That’s 11 of the 15 AL teams out of the mix.
That leaves the Yankees, Rangers, Orioles, and the Mariners as potentially interested teams, at least on paper. The Yankees are trying to get under the luxury tax, and if they’re not sure if they want to give Granderson a QO, they seem unlikely to want to give Morales — an inferior player with no defensive value — an even better offer. The Rangers could be interested depending on what happens with Nelson Cruz, but they’ve likely got bigger targets — Brian McCann is widely expected to go to Texas this winter — to pursue, and might prefer to solve their 1B/DH problem through trade or position change than through free agency.
If the Rangers are set on McCann and the Yankees keep Granderson, Boras may very well be left trying to generate a big contract out of a bidding war between the Orioles and Mariners. And it’s not even clear that the Orioles will actually be interested. They’ve repeatedly avoided making large financial commitments, and giving up a pick to sign a player like Morales would be out of character for the organization.
Boras is the king of grandiose statements, but it just isn’t obvious that there’s actually going to be a significant market for Kendrys Morales this winter. The Mariners obviously want him back, given that they’re making the qualifying offer, but it isn’t clear that they’re going to have serious competition for his services. If they can avoid bidding against themselves, they might end up in a situation where they are the only team with heavy interest in Morales, and if Boras sees the writing on the wall, he might decide that $14 million is the best he’s going to do for a mediocre DH.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I would be shocked if the Red Sox did not offer a qualifying offer on Saltalamacchia. He faltered in the playoffs, but he was a solid catcher for them this year and the alternatives are grim.
Can you imagine paying $42MM to Salty, Drew, and Napoli?
I don’t know, maybe that is not too bad but it does not feel right.
On one year deals? Sure, why not.
The Red Sox aren’t a poor team, but what got them in trouble was making big, fat long term commitments. They’ve been under the luxury tax threshold for two years running now and have the farm pieces to get back under in 2015 should they need to.
Considering a lack of obvious options at C or 1B and no obvious answer at 3B (To which you’d leave Bogaerts at 3B for now and use Drew at SS), getting all three back for one year at a high price is better than overcommitting to the wrong players at a longer term, but slightly cheaper year-to-year rate.
Maybe you’re right. Drew and Napoli are an easy “yes”, but I just don’t trust Salty at all. With that said, you are absolutely right that one year and $14MM is no real risk for them.
Doesn’t this call into question the point behind the system in the first place? Like the previous compensation system, the point of it was to “try” to help lower market teams. But if the bigger bankroll teams are more able to take risks on players like Napoli, Granderson, or Drew, knowing that they can eat those qualifying offers more readily, then is the system really “fixed”? Especially since that poison pill of losing a draft pick ends up potentially harming the player getting more offers from teams willing to sacrifice more than just money?
And does anybody care?
There are two catchers making > $14MM now, per BP / Cots – Mauer and Yadi ($14.2). Add McCann to that if you want. Maybe the shortage at the position makes it reasonable to offer that to Salty, but other than a well-timed best year (2103), he’s been a sub 2 WAR guy the rest of his career, includding the prior 2 with the Sox when he had 60 – 75% of the playing time.
Buster Posey signed an 8-year, $160 million extension in April.
Baltimore also attempted to sign Wieters to a five-year extension, but he refused it. Note: Matt Wieters is represented by Scott Boras. He will probably crack $14 million per season when he hits the market.
More in the Saltalamacchia range: Miguel Montero doesn’t crack $14 million, but he’s due another $50 over the next four seasons. Opportunity cost has to be considered when considering salaries, and the alternatives to Saltalamacchia on short money are really not good.
I guess you’re shocked then.
The only thing more absurd than Morales being extended a Q.O. is Morales declining a Q.O.
Yep, and the same thing could be said about Cruz. Or is the market for aging players with a history of injury problems coming off of a PED suspension that were never really anything other than a slightly above average hitter higher than I thought? I mean, isn’t he the right field version of Adam Lind?
Or Saltalamacchia declining one, if offered.
Except the difference between Saltalamacchia and Morales, by Fangraphs’ own estimation, is about 2 1/2 wins.
Any chance the Morales QO is just to increase Seattle’s leverage? His market can’t be too large, he’s an AL-Only 1B/DH. I can’t see many teams wanting to give him more than 2-3 years even without the QO, and no one will give him a 1-year deal if it costs them a 1st round pick. I bet the Mariners parlay this into a 2/20-25 deal if he rejects.
if he was offered 14 M for one season, why would he take a 2 yr / 20 M contract?
Qualifying offers provide teams leverage if they want to lock players up for a few years but being locked into a 14 M offer for one season means that an offer of 2 / 20 makes no sense.
And they shouldn’t need any leverage to get him to sign for 2 / 25. At that price, he’s probably being overpaid (as he may be at 1 / 14).
People really hate the idea of letting a player go for nothing but if you don’t think a player’s going to merit a $14 M contract, it’s a bad idea to extend a Q.O. unless you’re sure he’s going to refuse it because he wants a longer term deal and is willing to turn down the money upfront for the security of that longterm deal.
Because $20m is more than $14m? Players prefer longer term contracts because it provides them with financial stability, since all contracts in MLB are guaranteed (barring something unusual happening). So while he would be “stuck” in Seattle for 2 years, he would get paid more overall and not have to worry about moving for a bit.
Plus, with a contract at ~$10m annually, it is easier to trade to a contender than whatever would be left of a single half-year rental player.
I think what he was thinking is that Morales declines the offer in a week, finds no market for his services, and ends up signing a smaller, longer deal with Seattle after that. Which certainly seems possible, but can only work if Boras and Morales are nearly certifiable and really decline it.
I would ten times out of ten play one year for $14MM instead of 2 for $20MM.
I’d be ecstatic to get paid $6 million for one year of my time. Baseball, mucking out stalls, you name it…
Of course that’s true, but he may have the opportunity to make considerably more than $6MM in that second year. Or he may decide he wants to go live in the Outback. At that point he can do whatever he wants with his $14MM.
Maybe Boras and Morales said they would decline a qualifying offer just to GET a qualifying offer and accept it. That would be the smartest play of all.
Not sure that’s so smart. While an agent should be focused on doing what’s best for his client, he has to also be cognizant of his reputation. He’s got to deal with all these teams all the time, so it’s in his best interest to “play fair” and not attempt under-handed moves like this. While many might view agent dealings — and Scott Boras in particular — as employing whatever methods suit their purposes best, trying to manipulate a team like this isn’t going to go over well, and would probably only create problems in his negotiations in the future, not only with the Mariners, but with other MLB teams as well.
Maybe there’d be a way he could spin it and not suffer too much in the way of repercussions, but that’s probably not a road he wants to go down if he’s concerned about his career.
“. He’s got to deal with all these teams all the time, so it’s in his best interest to “play fair” and not attempt under-handed moves like this”
Doing something in your own best interest at the expense of your client’s interest would be a good way to lose a lot of clients.
Boras is such a good agent because he ALWAYS gets whats best for his clients.
Very surprised at reports that Drew would get a QO with Bogaerts ready. Napoli, on the other hand, seems like a guy who might have his market depressed just enough that he would take the QO. With him, wouldn’t signing teams be reluctant to go more than a couple of years and an option when there are concerns about his hip?
It seems to me that Napoli would be in line for a contract similar to the one that he initially agreed to with Boston.
I would say it would probably take at least 3 years/$36MM for a deal better than the Q.O., and I would say a team would be willing to give up the pick and sign him to a deal like that.
No-brainer on Drew to me. The SS market is, as always, awful and with Middlebrooks looking like a very probable dud, they’re a stronger team with Bogaerts at 3B until Cecchini is ready and Drew at SS.
Drew is a no-brainer to me, too. Lest we forget this is a one year deal and teams like Boston take very little risk on a one year deal at that price.
Middlebrooks is a very probable dud? Huh? In just over a season’s worth of PAs in his career (660), he has a 756 OPS, hit 32 HRs and displayed plus defense at 3rd (the obstruction notwithstanding).
You don’t give up on 24 year olds who show 30+ HR power, especially in today’s game where power is getting scarcer and scarcer.
Without getting into offense, I have to disagree with the “plus defense” part as well. Over that same season, his defensive numbers have been neutral. And I’m surprised they see him as that good, as he doesn’t do well on the eye test.
The problem here is one of small sample size. He’s likely neither as good as he was in 2012 nor as bad as he was in 2013, but his scouting and skillset lend themselves to him being more likely to land closer to his 2013 than 2012.
30+ home run power is great and all, but it needs to be paired with some level of plate discipline to be actualized in any capacity. Middlebrooks has great plate coverage and great power, but that’s about it. As long as he’s vulnerable to pitches outside of the zone, he’s going to be a sub-starting player.
Agree with Olerud’s helmet. Middlebrooks looks like a future stud when he’s on a hot streak, but the same could have been said about Shea Hillenbrand or Scott Cooper.
Middlebrooks could either be Pedro Alvarez or Ian Stewart. Remember Ian Stewart?
To be precise, Will Middlebrooks is a 25-year-old thirdbaseman of questionable defensive skills who will be challenged to post an on-base percentate over .300. Wily Mo Pena had power but could not sustain an MLB career.
Middlebrooks, IMHO, is almost a decent fielder – his weakness is the dive to his right. But he’s a young guy with enormous RH power, and can be a big contributor at 3B or 1B if he can develop a consistent approach at the plate. Bogaerts should be at SS, which makes bringing back Drew a bad idea.
Could you imagine fielding a team that has JBJ, Bogaerts and Middlebrooks at the bottom of the order? Pitchers will absolutely make adjustments to all of these guys and you’ll see a 6 week stretch where these guys are producing a ton of outs. That’s a window that sees you miss the playoffs. Add in the fact that you’d be downgrading defensively at all 3 positions (as opposed to a Bogaerts, Drew, Ellsbury trio) and I’m not sure why you wouldn’t want Drew back.
It’s possible JBJ adjusts, Bogaerts doesn’t struggle or play subpar defense, and that Middlebrooks develops plate discipline, but betting on all three to happen defies probability.
Middlebrooks may or may not be a dud, but we could have a chance to find out. I doubt Drew accepts the Q.O. I agree with Dave about Morales’ mystical market, but The Great Salesman has a story to tell with Drew. There are a lot of teams with a SS problem and I’d be surprised if one didn’t step up into the 3/40 range.
AB–
The nature of hitting at the bottom of the order – any order – is “producing a ton of outs.” Not a lot of .360 OBP guys hitting 8th these days…
(Otherwise, they’d probably be hitting 2nd?)
“, Will Middlebrooks is a 25-year-old thirdbaseman of questionable defensive skills ”
The metrics say hes better than average. The scouts say hes fantastic. His minor league experience says hes fantastic.
There’s pretty much no evidence that his defense is “questionable”
The Sox will have a full starter’s worth of innings available between 3B/SS given Middlebrooks’ injury history and there are no good in-house options. The free agency market is equally horrible.
Since the QO doesn’t serve the purpose for which it was supposedly invented and it affects so few players, it is time for it to die a quiet death.
But then, this is the MLB, the hotspot for stupid ideas.
It serves the purpose for which it was invented. Low and mid market teams got the ability to better control draft spending through the whole process.
MLBPA only sold out a tiny fraction of its members (like Lohse) and a whole bunch of its future members (the draftees). The teams got a mechanism to control draft spending.
While this is true, the actual draft pick compensation system is pretty close to as useless as it was before, benefiting the larger market teams who can eat the QOs if necessary.
Unless there’s a salary cap AND a salary floor, the system will always benefit the larger market teams.
I wonder if the QO has/will impact things like mid tier players being more willing to sign extensions at a lower price knowing that the QO is out there to suppress their value. I think the owners consider any mid tier free agent contract suppression a big win.
I think alot of people aren’t taking into consideration the possibility of the old “handshake wink wink” agreement of players to turn down a QO so the team still gets a draft pick. This was rampant in the older system where arbitration was what the player had to turn down.
Sure the QO is higher now that the arb offers were, which makes those handshake agreements a little harder to imagine being in place, but I really doubt Cherington offers a QO to Drew or Napoli without knowing with a high degree of certainty that they are going to be turned down. Same with the Yankees and Kuroda.
Except that now turning down a qualifying offer means a significantly weaker market for the player and maybe somewhere in the realm of $5 Million less for them. I find it highly unlikely that a player is going to agree to give up $5M so that a team that doesn’t want them back can get a free draft pick.
What would a player get out of such an agreement?
And I think the Sox would be fine with Napoli accepting his QO.
As a RS fan, I would expect some decline out of Napoli, but we also are not overflowing with good alternatives. I see $14M as a slight overpay, but one-year contracts are worth a lot, imo.
And as a Red Sox fan I’d also be happy with Drew accepting his Q.O.
Peruse the Free Agent Leaderboards for 3B and SS…they do not excite. There were a lot of narratives applied to the Sox in the past 365 days, but the one that stuck from beginning to end was the value of creating quality depth. If Drew goes, the left side of the infield is not deep. Unless you see a diamond in this rough:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-free-agent-leaderboards/
A multiyear deal worth 20 million is technically better than a 1 year deal worth 14. That’s what any FA would want which is why they would agree to turn down the QO.
he guarantees himself a job and a paycheck for more years rather than gambling on 1 year at a time, where youre 1 injury away from retirement.
It wouldn’t make as much sense for elite guys in their upper 30’s to agree to that since it likely represents a pay cut, but to solid but “un-star” guys like Drew and Napoli, of course they’re going to want to go for the multi-year deals, even if the AAV is less than the QO would be.
Think about it, are Drew and Napoli really the kinds of players that teams should receive compensation for “losing?”
No. It’s just another example of the system in place completely failing to achieve the objective that it claims it was in place for to begin with.
“Think about it, are Drew and Napoli really the kinds of players that teams should receive compensation for “losing?””
Both were 3.5+ WAR (per fangraphs numbers) players, which puts them in the top 10% of MLB, so yeah, they’re exactly the sort of players teams should be compensated for.
I mean, seriously. Drew is a better than league average hitter (.337 wOBA vs .320 league average), as an ELITE DEFENSIVE SHORTSTOP, and you don’t think thats a valuable commodity?
Napoli is a .367 wOBA hitter who plays a good 1st base.
Looks like Cardinals are extending a QO to Beltran.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/carlos-beltran-receives-qualifying-offer.html
Kendrys Morales might not be worth $14M, but the difference can be made up by getting to call Scott Boras a liar if he accepts the qualifying offer.
As long as he gets a nice contract for his client, I’m sure he doesn’t care if people call him a liar. It would just be more evidence that he outsmarted a GM. Unless he really thought Oliver Perez was on a Sandy Koufax-like career path when he re-upped with the Mets a few years back?
I’m not happy that the Tigers didn’t QO either Infante or Peralta to play 2nd next year. I think Infante is going to end up getting at least 3/$30m, if not closer to $40m, now that there’s no compensation attached to him. If they offer the QO and he doesn’t take it, it depresses his market value, or if he takes it I’d happily pay him for $14m next year since the Tigers have no other 2B options. Peralta’s market value is harder to peg, and I’m not even sure he could play 2nd, but you’d still be better off hurting his market value with the QO.
I highly doubt their goal is to hurt a player’s market value. If he can’t play 2nd, there’s no way you pay him $14MM to be a back-up at SS.
If they hurt his market value, they have more leverage against him if they want to re-sign him.
Right, this was my point, not to be vengeful against any players. Overall, I wish the players got to keep a bigger piece of the hugely profitable pie they generate, but I don’t expect the Tigers to overpay out of generosity.
So for a team like the Mariners whose first round pick is protected, if Morales rejects the QO it seems like they’re better off signing someone else’s QO free agent to play DH. They’ll lose their second round pick, but that will be several picks lower than the pick they’d get in compensation for Morales if/when he signs elsewhere.
Or they can just avoid QO guys altogether and keep both picks. For a “rebuilding” team I would think they’d prefer the picks plus whatever FA’s they can sign without compensation than the middling FA’s that come with the loss of a pick.
If they sign a QO free agent, they lose their first available pick. Since their first round pick is protected, the next pick they have is the one they would lose. If they do indeed give Morales a qualifying offer, they would be in line for a compensation pick, which would then be their next available pick (1st pick in the round, as no teams below them in the draft gave out any QO’s. It would slot in somewhere around #24 to 30). So if they sign a QO free agent, they give up that compensation pick, not a second-rounder.
The Twins can afford pretty much anything they want. They should have $50m+ to spend this offseason. Not that they probably want Morales, and not that they will actually spend it, but the budget room is there.
I think the QO to Drew is a Red Sox gamble on him getting a deal elsewhere and giving them a draft pick. But I think they have to start the season with Boegarts and Middlebrooks on the roster. If one falters, you have Drew.
As for Salty, the catcher market is littered with veteran catcher looking for 1 year deals. You could probably get a Carlos Ruiz,A.J. Pierzynski,or Soto for really cheap. You’ve got Lavarnway too. Lets face it. Salty is coming off a career year thanks to a nice BABIP and you are going to have to pay for it. The Red Sox having seemingly learned there lesson on overpaying.
I’d rather take one of those catchers for $5m and land upside OF like a Hart,Cruz,Chris Young..etc on a 1 year deal for $10-$15m.
I don’t think this makes sense. First, the Sox need Salty, for one year, more than they need Drew (because we know who they’d start at SS). Second, isn’t Salty, who’s younger, more likely to get a multi-year deal elsewhere? Just seems like an odd calculation.
Now Heyman is reporting that Burnett isn’t going to get a QO. That would make Dave’s point of the absurdity of the QO even more salient. If small-market teams can’t afford QOs, then what are they good for?
I’m surprised too, but they must be taking him at his word about not wanting to play elsewhere. Seems like a silly mistake when you plan on paying him $12 million anyway.
The other effect of the QO is to suppress a free agent’s value on the market, which makes it easier for the original team to resign that player. Small market teams can’t even do that if they can’t risk the player accepting the QO.
Burnett’s is a bit of a unique case. He’s stated publicly several times that he wants to play for the Pirates or nowhere. Of course, the Pirates know this, so probably rightly figure that he would accept a qualifying offer, if he felt he wouldn’t be able to get a better offer from them. While the Pirates have become a contender the last couple years, they probably still don’t have a great amount of money to spread around to try and improve their team next year (or at least stay on par with where they are). If they feel they just can’t commit $14 MM to Burnett and still do whatever else they want to do, it makes all the sense in the world to not make that qualifying offer.
I suppose they’re perfectly within their rights to do the under-handed thing and put out that qualifying offer and turn around and trade him if he accepts (I’m assuming QO’s don’t include no-trade rights). If you look at Burnett solely as an asset, he’s worth the QO to other teams, and the Pirates could stand to gain by trading him under that scenario. But I doubt they want to act in that manner or employ such a maneuver at the cost of gaining a reputation as a club that deals with players in such a manner.
So instead, they’re going to leverage Burnett’s desire to play for them and them only, and negotiate a deal that’s for less than the QO. And if what they have to offer isn’t good enough for him, they lose nothing. If it’s true that he doesn’t want to play for any other team, the QO wouldn’t have gained them anything anyway.
QOs don’t have a formal no trade clause, but MLB has made it clear that they won’t allow sign and trades, especially if it’s obviously to get round the QO issues.
I found clarification:
“An Article XX-B MLB free-agent who signs a Major League contract after 11:59 PM (Eastern) on the 5th day following the conclusion of the World Series receives automatic “no trade” rights that extend through June 15th of the following season, even if the player re-signs with his former club.”
Bottom line, QO’s that re-sign with their former team can’t be traded (without their consent) until June 15th.
I think your ignoring of the NL market for Morales overestimates the intelligence of NL GM’s, Dave. If someone falls in love with his bat, I could see them sticking him out there at first like Adam Dunn was for so many years. At the same time, it would take someone to REALLY fall in love with that bat to override the QO. I think he’ll eventually wind up back with the Mariners, but I feel like there’s always some GM that makes a huge overpay for a FA.
I can’t see anyone falling in love with his bat. He has a .787 and a .785 over the past two years.
I can’t imagine an NL GM even entertaining a 1-night stand or some afternoon delight with his bat.
Sounds like a future NotGraphs post
Luckily for me there’s no room for him on the Dodgers…
So to the extent the MLBPA are among those who see “the free agent compensation system has little to do with promoting competitive balance and is far more of a price constraint on mid-level free agents” how likely are we to see the QO process radically altered or replaced with something else in the next CBA?
I personally dont get why we didnt offer Saltalamacchia a qualifying offer. He is projected to sign a 4 year deal at a nice rate. There wasnt any real risk in him accepting it, since its still just a 1 year deal at a bit of an overpay, and if he declines it and signs elsewhere, we would have got a comp pick…I’m not too keen on giving McCann the 5 year/$82.5 million or so that I think he is very likely to get + giving up that 1st round pick. There are a couple of other catching options out there that I think either return to their teams or I just dont see as a good enough replacement for what the team already has. The Red Sox offseason this year is a lot harder for me to figure out than it was last year. Last year, I was just looking for 1-2 year stopgaps, and for the most part, we did that, with a couple of overpays on an extra year and some money (but who cares since we ended up winning the World Series?). This year, I would go 3 years on Napoli at the most, 3 years on Drew (I dont like Bogaerts defensively at SS at this point in time), and 3 years on Salty at the most. Everything else is hard to peg. Free agency just looks so terrible over these next couple of years…I hate the idea of having to dive into it
If David Ross wasnt such an injury concern at his age, I could even see them sticking with him and letting Christian Vazquez get time behind the plate. Since that is too unreliable, I think the best bet is to probably sign one of the available catchers, as I mentioned. I’m still dumbfounded by why they didnt extend a qualifying offer to Saltalamacchia
So Lavarnway has run out of love?
not gonna lie…I completely forgot about Lavarnway during the couple of minutes I was typing this. Lack of sleep does that for you…Lavarnway isnt the best defensively, and he hasnt really shown the offensive capabilities, though he hasnt had much consistent playing time. I’d probably still say that he is more of a backup
I’d have gambled. Just like with Drew, Ells, and Naps, the downside is not that much. With a 1.9 and 3.6 WAR over the past two years, I’d say downside is 2.0, which extends to $10M. The upside has to be at least 3.0 which is $15M. And a one-year commitment has to be worth at least a 10% premium, and lack of position depth another 10%.
My guess is that, once they decided to go with Ross in the WS, that sent out the message that Salty’s defense was too big a liability.
I agree with the Ross/Vazquez issue as well. It won’t help that they will have JBJ in the 9-hole either. One weak bat won’t make much difference, but two weak bats would really start to hurt.
The other thing about Bradley is his defense in CF…I figure that they cant have a question mark defensively behind the plate, at SS, and in CF. Thats one of the main reasons I want to bring Drew back, as I mentioned. The lead-off situation is another thing to think about. Right now, I can only really see Pedroia doing that…
Why do you think Bogaerts is a questionmark at SS?
All of the scouting reports are that hes been very good, but he looks like he might fill out too much to play in the long term.
The potential of Bogaerts being 230lbs in 5 years is not a reason to play him at 3B now, and its not a reason to resign Drew, who probably won’t be able to play SS anyways by the time Bogaerts is too big.
Also, Bradley is widely thought of as being an elite defender. Why is he a questionmark?
Bradley feels more like a LFer than a CFer to me, mostly b/c of his arm. Its also not so easy to roam the OF at Fenway.
I completely disagree about Bogaerts at SS. I think he can be adequate at SS. His offense is good enough that you’d be ok with slightly less defense there. I just think he is better off at 3b now. He is more than likely to move over there eventually, but from what I saw this year with limited time there, I think he should be there full time. He looked like he can possibly be a plus defender at 3b (I havent looked at numbers, but just loved what I saw from him there with his instincts). I also felt that I just didnt like what I saw from him at SS, if I’m trying to field my best team, in the limited amount of time I saw him there this year. I feel much more comfortable with Drew at SS until one of the prospects on the farm are ready or they pick someone else up in the next couple of years.