Raising, Razing, Rays-ing Expectations

The Rays are not the best team in baseball.

That statement was true on Opening Day, when the Rays were projected by FanGraphs Depth Charts to win 79.9 games and finish last in the AL East. It’s true again Wednesday morning, after the Rays fell 6-1 to the Orioles for a third straight loss on Tuesday night. But for much of the time in between, the truthiness of that statement wasn’t so clear.

In the last six weeks, the Rays have rattled off a five-game winning streak, two six-game winning streaks, and a seven-game winning streak. Though they no longer hold the best record in the majors, they still boast the top record in the American League, at 34-18. No team has done more to improve its standing during the first third of the season.

They’re just doing it… weird. While the Rays have the second-best record in baseball, they’re 14th in batter WAR and 12th in pitcher WAR. They don’t have a single player in the top 50 on the combined WAR leaderboard and have just three in the top 100.

Instead, the Rays are outperforming both their ability to score and prevent runs, and their ability to turn those runs into wins. The story of their season to this point is no doubt centered on the sticky concepts of luck, fortune, and deservedness. How much should we adjust our expectations for a team, perhaps, playing above its head?

Let’s start there. Again, the Rays have the best record in the American League, but their Pythagorean and gradient records are only fifth best; their BaseRuns record is only sixth best. No team has outperformed each win estimate more than the Rays.

Why? Well, one reason is they’re 9-1 in one-run games — the best record in baseball. The meaning behind one-run games is tricky. Bad teams lose more one-run games because they’re bad. Good teams win more one-run games because they’re good. But good and bad teams can each win or lose one-run games without it being a reflection of their underlying talent. The Rays are a good team, so it’s not weird to see them have a good record in one-run games. It’s just a little weird they’ve won each of their last nine one-run games.

In games decided by more than one run, the Rays are 25-17 (fifth best in the majors) with a +25 run differential (sixth best). Again, that’s very good — there’s no way to describe the Rays as anything less than very good so far — it’s just not quite as good as the 106-win pace they’re on right now. It’s also a bit less than the Yankees’ 27-11 record and +87 run differential. The difference in the standings, down to just 2.5 games, is partly because the Yankees are 6-11 in one-run games.

This is important when considering how these teams might play into the future. I took all full seasons since 1962 and found how well each metric correlated to rest-of-season win rate after each game. Early in the season, actual win rate tends to be the worst at knowing what’s ahead:

So, yes, I think it’s fair to say the Rays aren’t likely to keep winning at this pace. That said, wins are wins are wins, and we’re coming up on the time of year where those banked wins make a real difference. I ran the same tests, but using full-season win rate instead. Actual win rate becomes the best indicator for year-end standings right around the one-third mark:

It’s also worth pointing out that seasons aren’t constants. I split up every full team season since 1996 into rolling 25-game chunks. I found the best and worst win rates for each team, then found the median best and worst for each year-end win range:

Good teams, bad teams — all teams — play well and poorly over the course of six months. It’s rare to see a team lock into a win rate and stay there all year. The difference in the final standings is generally how good and how bad and how often.
Let’s compare the Rays and Yankees in 2026 with last year’s Yankees, who won 94 games despite playing nearly a quarter of the season under .500:

Here’s the good news for the Rays: They recently completed a 21-4 stretch (.840), meaning they’ve had a hot streak often reserved for teams that finish the year with very impressive win totals. The 25-game threshold is arbitrary, sure, but pick a number, and the Rays’ start looks impressive. It certainly doesn’t hurt that many of those wins came against teams in their division; they’re now 14-5 against the AL East.

Here’s the bad news: Their worst days are likely ahead. Unless the Rays are set for some type of record-breaking season, they will play poorly — and probably below .500 — at some point. Unless this three-game losing streak is the start of a skid, we’ve yet to see what they look like when they’re struggling, how low they sink, and how quickly they rebound. A lot can go wrong in four months.

That brings us to the second layer of luck. Not only are the Rays winning more games than implied by their ability to score and prevent runs, but they’re also scoring and preventing runs better than implied by their more granular, individual metrics.

The Rays’ lineup is eighth in wOBA (.323) and 26th in xwOBA (.308). Only five teams have outperformed their xwOBA that much over a full season in the Statcast era. This isn’t an instance where they’re running an inflated wOBA because of a bunch of shallow homers that xwOBA thinks should be fly outs. They’ve hit just 42 home runs this year (28th). They also have the lowest hard-hit rate in baseball (33.4%), the second-lowest launch angle sweet spot rate (30.7%), and the lowest barrel rate (5.1%). Tampa Bay is the least powerful team in baseball.

No, the discrepancy comes down to performance on balls in play. The Rays are running a .306 BABIP, which is second best in the majors. They’re hitting tons of soft groundballs and softer line drives, and their .410 batting average on all this low contact is both the best in the majors and well above their .376 xBA.

Normally I might chalk this up to luck, but a few things seem to be going well for the Rays here. For one, they are absolutely committed to putting the ball in play more than any other team, even if that means making weak contact. No team has whiffed less. No team has fallen behind in counts less. And no team has struck out less. They only reaffirm this commitment with runners on base. If you’re going to sacrifice quality, there best be quantity, and the Rays have that covered.

There’s also a matter of direction. The Rays have gone the other way 27.0% of the time, second only to the Athletics. And because the Rays hit so many groundballs, they’ve hit the highest rate of oppo grounders in the majors. These have become quite valuable in recent years:

I’m sure there’s a rational explanation for this (something to do with the type, amount, and legality of fielder positioning). It’s also just 7.8% of their total batted balls, so I don’t want to get too carried away. But this seems to be a place where the Rays have zagged the league’s pull-air zig. They’re well-known for acquiring and developing players with flat, accurate swings. Sure, any team would like Yandy Díaz and Junior Caminero, who each rank in the top 40 by wRC+ while running low launch angles. And no, the Rays aren’t so set in their ways as to deny Jonathan Aranda’s ability to elevate. But it’s clear this is an approach they target as a baseline. For instance, during the offseason, they traded for Ben Williamson, who’s somewhat unexceptional as a hitter — other than his ability to hit the ball on the ground the other way.

Can the Rays keep up this level of performance all season? I doubt it. I mean, I don’t know. There’s a reason xwOBA works, and there’s a reason it doesn’t incorporate spray angle into its formula. I would be more encouraged if they were hitting all this low, directional contact with a bit more exit velocity.

Still, this doesn’t quite feel like a fluke. The Rays are forcing fielders to make plays, forcing pitchers to work with runners on base, and forcing infields into less-than-ideal alignments — then aiming at those holes. They have the most hits on bunts this year, adding another level of peskiness that defenses rarely see. They’re also the best at running the bases on balls in play. If a team is going to excel with a BABIP-and-sequencing approach, it’s going to be the one committed to doing all these things at this scale. This isn’t a coincidence. It’s an identity.

The Rays’ pitching also comes with similar questions of luck. Their 3.46 ERA is fifth best in the majors, but their 4.15 xERA and 3.98 FIP are closer to middle of the pack. They don’t strike batters out. They don’t limit hard contact. The only thing they do better than average as a group is limit walks. They’re fine.

Even so, things seem to be going better than one might expect. Much like the lineup, it comes down to performance on balls in play. The Rays have a .261 BABIP allowed — second lowest, ahead of only the Braves (.249). The suppression appears to be driven by a strong outfield defense. Their 9 OAA in the outfield is third best in the majors, led by the emergence of Chandler Simpson as the top defensive left fielder in the game.

While their infield defense has been lesser, with Caminero displaying the worst range of any player at any position, the Rays are “shading” their fielders on nearly half of all plays — and to great effect. Their .273 wOBA allowed on shades is the best mark in the majors. Some of that is because they’re picking up more strikeouts against the hitters they shade, but they’re also gobbling up much of what’s put in play, with a mere .268 BABIP allowed on shades.

When it comes to the Rays, my first thought is, “What do they know?” I’m not sure whether this is always fair or deserved. They weren’t good last year or the year before, and it’s clear there are limits to their approach (however you might describe it). But for whatever reason, I feel compelled to extend them some benefit of the doubt for this hot start. There’s something intentional here, something considered. As the league continues its arc toward launching to the pull side (and trying to prevent it), the Rays have turned their attention to maximizing (and minimizing) BABIP performance. No, I don’t think they’re the best team in baseball going forward. And I’m not sure they’re best team in their division, either. But through either dumb luck or created fortune, the Rays have found what they’re looking for.