Rendon’s Signature Swing Lifts 2019 World Series

Though the final score was once again lopsided, Tuesday night’s Game 6 was this World Series’ most entertaining game since the opener, even if much of it pivoted upon lengthy debates of rules both written (the seventh-inning interference call against Trea Turner) and unwritten (the bat-carrying homers of Alex Bregman and Juan Soto). Beyond those controversies, Stephen Strasburg‘s 8.1 innings and Anthony Rendon’s pair of late-inning hits headlined the Nationals’ winning effort. The latter also helped rescue what has been something of a dull World Series from some ignominious distinctions.

Rendon’s two-run seventh-inning homer off Will Harris did not swing the lead; the fifth-inning homers of Adam Eaton and Soto off Justin Verlander did that job. Rendon’s blow did divert attention away from the scrutiny over Turner’s path to first base after hitting a dribbler to pitcher Brad Peacock, as well as the long on-field delay for what was actually ruled an un-reviewable judgment call. Instead of having runners at second and third with no outs, the Nationals had a runner on first and one out, and boy, were they — and just about everybody outside of Houston — extremely pissed. The tension ratcheted up a few notches when Eaton, the next batter after Turner, popped up to third base on the first pitch from Harris. Two pitches later, Rendon pulverized a cutter that Harris left in the middle of the plate; that’s a 2019 postseason-high 43.4 degree launch angle for you aficionados of such matters:

The ball-don’t-lie homer stretched the Nationals’ lead to 5-2, and while it produced some mutterings about how the lead should have been 6-2 had the umpires not screwed up the call (as well as some terrible puns), such gripes get filed in the category of what Yankees play-by-play voice Michael Kay calls “the fallacy of the predetermined outcome” — the assumption that the inning would have unfolded in exactly the same manner as it did with that one change; we can’t know how Harris, Eaton, and Rendon would have approached their respective tasks in the parallel universe where two runners were on base. Nationals manager Davey Martinez was still hot enough to get run even after the inning finished.

Anyway, Rendon — who had also driven in the Nationals’ run in the top of the first against Verlander via a shift-beating single through the hole on the right side of the infield — effectively put the game out of reach in the top of the ninth when he plated two more runs with a double off the right-center-field wall at the expense of Chris Devenski:

The 29-year-old third baseman’s five RBI matched Gleyber Torres‘ ALCS Game 1 total as the highest of this postseason, and it now stands as the World Series’ highest total since Addison Russell‘s six RBI in Game 6 in 2016. Via the Baseball-Reference Play Index, his .325 WPA matched George Springer’s Game 1 performance for the highest of this World Series, though the pair are tied for a more modest 10th in this postseason:

Top Single Game WPA, 2019 Postseason
Rk Player Series Gm# Tm Opp PA H 2B 3B HR RBI BB WPA
1 Juan Soto NLWC 1 WSN MIL 4 1 0 0 0 2 0 .521
2 Jose Altuve ALCS 6 HOU NYY 5 2 1 0 1 2 1 .470
3 Dansby Swanson NLDS 3 ATL STL 4 3 2 0 0 1 0 .435
4 Yadier Molina NLDS 4 STL ATL 5 1 0 0 0 2 0 .396
5 Anthony Rendon NLDS 5 WSN LAD 5 3 2 0 1 1 0 .381
6 Juan Soto NLDS 5 WSN LAD 5 2 0 0 1 2 1 .357
7 Carlos Correa ALCS 2 HOU NYY 5 2 1 0 1 2 0 .346
8 Ronald Acuña Jr. NLDS 4 ATL STL 5 4 1 1 0 0 0 .341
9 Adam Duvall NLDS 3 ATL STL 2 1 0 0 0 2 0 .341
10 Anthony Rendon WS 6 WSN HOU 5 3 1 0 1 5 1 .325
11 George Springer WS 1 HOU WSN 5 2 1 0 1 2 2 .325
12 Gleyber Torres ALCS 1 NYY HOU 5 3 1 0 1 5 0 .300
13 Juan Soto WS 1 WSN HOU 4 3 1 0 1 3 0 .292
14 Marcell Ozuna NLDS 1 STL ATL 5 2 2 0 0 2 1 .287
15 Max Muncy NLDS 1 LAD WSN 4 2 0 0 0 3 1 .275
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference

If you’re wondering about pitcher WPA from this postseason, Strasburg’s .306 mark is the highest of any starter in this World Series, edging Gerrit Cole‘s .299 from Game 5, though Sean Doolittle‘s four-out save in Game 1 weighs in at .326 for the top overall pitching performance thanks to its high leverage. The last of those is still just 11th overall this postseason, with Aníbal Sanchéz’s .526 WPA from his no-hit bid in the NLCS opener topping the list.

All that’s cool, if not historic. Where a bit of history — esoteric history, for those into WPA, which admittedly ain’t everybody — comes in is in rescuing this series from a dubious distinction. As I noticed in putting together Tuesday’s piece on Kurt Suzuki, the Nationals catcher’s go-ahead homer off Verlander in the seventh inning of Game 2 had the highest WPA of any single play in this World Series according to our version of the metric, at .192. The Baseball Gauge, which has a very cool WPA and Championship WPA database that provides measures for each play, game, and series, has slightly different numbers, putting Suzuki’s homer dead even with Soto’s two-run, fifth-inning double off Cole in Game 1 (.190 for both). Rendon’s homer has now edged ahead of that pair:

Highest Single-Event Win Probability Added, 2019 World Series
Gm Inn Batter Pitcher Outs Bases Score Play LI WPA
6 t7 Anthony Rendon Will Harris 2 1__ 3-2 2-run HR 0.9 .216
2 t7 Kurt Suzuki Justin Verlander 0 ___ 2-2 Solo HR 1.5 .190
1 t5 Juan Soto Gerrit Cole 2 1_3 3-2 2-run 2B 1.9 .190
2 b1 Alex Bregman Stephen Strasburg 2 1__ 0-2 2-run HR 0.8 .183
1 b8 George Springer Daniel Hudson 1 _2_ 3-5 1-run 2B 2.4 .171
5 t2 Yordan Alvarez Joe Ross 1 1__ 0-0 2-run HR 1.2 .166
3 b4 Victor Robles Zack Greinke 1 1__ 0-2 1-run 3B 1.5 .165
1 b1 Yuli Gurriel Max Scherzer 2 _23 0-0 2-run 2B 1.9 .163
6 t5 Juan Soto Justin Verlander 2 ___ 2-2 Solo HR 0.5 .146
5 t4 Carlos Correa Joe Ross 2 _2_ 2-0 2-run HR 1.0 .143
2 t1 Anthony Rendon Justin Verlander 0 12_ 0-0 2-run 2B 1.8 .142
6 t5 Adam Eaton Justin Verlander 1 ___ 1-2 Solo HR 0.9 .138
6 b5 George Springer Stephen Strasburg 1 1__ 2-3 2B 1.7 .123
1 t4 Juan Soto Gerrit Cole 0 ___ 1-2 Solo HR 1.1 .121
4 t4 Robinson Chirinos Patrick Corbin 0 1__ 2-0 2-run HR 1.1 .120
SOURCE: Baseball Gauge

As you can see, the Soto and Eaton homers both cracked the series’ top 15 as well, as did a Springer double off Strasburg that sent Josh Reddick to third base instead of tying the game; Strasburg ultimately stranded both runners by striking out Altuve and getting Michael Brantley to ground out. One note here: the Gauge’s WPA rankings include outs — generally negative WPAs for the hitting team, and positive for the pitching team — though only one cracked the initial top 15: Hudson’s bases-loaded strikeout of Alvarez with two outs in the seventh inning of Game 1, which produced a .133 WPA; I felt it was worth omitting that from the above to keep the comparisons consistent across sites. Also worth noting is that the maximum difference in WPA between FanGraphs’ version and the Gauge’s for any single play was a mere .003; the hits of Springer and Alvarez swapped places relative to my previous version of the table, but otherwise the order was undisturbed.

So Rendon’s homer took over top honors for this series. Let’s call that the series’ Signature Swing, which works out nicely both with regards to the action and the change in probabilities. Rendon’s Signature Swing prevented this year’s series from having the lowest such event of any World Series in the past 30 years:

Lowest WPA of World Series Signature Swing Since 1989
Year Game Inn Batter Tm Opp Outs Bases Score Play LI WPA
1989 Game 2 b4 Terry Steinbach OAK SFG 1 _23 2-1 3-run HR 1.7 .187
2008 Game 3 b9 Shane Victorino PHI TBR 0 1__ 4-4 WP, Runner 3B 2.1 .205
2007 Game 3 b7 Matt Holliday COL BOS 0 1_3 2-6 3-run HR 2.0 .208
2019 Game 6 t7 Anthony Rendon WAS HOU 2 1__ 3-2 2-run HR 0.9 .216
1983 Game 1 t8 Garry Maddox PHI BAL 0 ___ 1-1 Solo HR 1.8 .255
2014 Game 4 b6 Pablo Sandoval SFG KCR 2 123 4-4 2-run 1B 4.1 .255
1987 Game 3 b7 Vince Coleman STL MIN 1 _23 0-1 2-run 2B 2.7 .262
2006 Game 4 b8 David Eckstein STL DET 2 _2_ 4-4 1-run 2B 2.4 .271
1995 Game 3 b8 Sandy Alomar Jr. CLE ATL 1 1_3 5-6 1-run 2B 5.5 .282
1990 Game 2 b10 Joe Oliver CIN OAK 1 12_ 4-4 1-run 1B 4.3 .290
1974 Game 4 t4 Bill Russell LAD OAK 2 12_ 0-1 2-run 3B 2.1 .292
1977 Game 1 t9 Lee Lacy LAD NYY 1 12_ 2-3 1-run 1B 6.0 .300
1971 Game 1 b3 Merv Rettenmund BAL PIT 1 12_ 1-3 3-run HR 2.4 .309
2004 Game 1 t8 Larry Walker STL BOS 1 12_ 8-9 1-run ROE 4.5 .316
1996 Game 4 t8 Jim Leyritz NYY ATL 1 1_3 3-6 3-run HR 2.1 .320
SOURCE: Baseball Gauge

I had to omit the pitchers due to space considerations, the list of which includes Dennis Eckersley, who also served up Kirk Gibson’s pinch-homer in 1988 (which registered a chart-topping .859 WPA), and the Braves’ Mark Wohlers, who landed here for hits in both ’95 and ’96. Steinbach’s homer off Rick Reuschel came in a series that turned out to be a sweep, one whose signature drama was actually the Loma Prieta earthquake (6.9 on the Richter scale) that delayed the playing of Game 3 by 10 days. The 1990 and 2007 series were also sweeps, though some of the other Signature Swings from above came in series that were much closer; the 1987 and 2014 ones both went the full seven games, for example, but they didn’t have That One Play which stood as particularly significant relative to other series.

Thanks to Rendon, Strasburg, Soto, and Eaton, this series is going the distance as well, and with it comes another chance for the Nationals and Astros to rewrite the story with a new Signature Swing. Game 7!!! I can hardly wait.





Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jay_jaffe... and BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.

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RonnieDobbs
4 years ago

What a huge advantage for Rendon to have the pitcher have to just stand out there for an eternity. How does that effect the pitcher mentally – it doesn’t help that is for sure!