Revenge of Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning, This is the water and this is the well.

Eric A Longenhagen: Links!

Eric A Longenhagen: Today’s daily notes: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-725/

Eric A Longenhagen: I have posts in the queue about the Royals/Padres and Braves/Twins trade. If they get posted during the chat, I’ll add them in here.

Eric A Longenhagen: Also, I’m writing up all the trades that happened while I was away for posterity. Here’s the Quintana deal: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/belated-trade-analysis-white-sox-acquir…

Eric A Longenhagen: Ok, let’s drink full and descend.

Coolguy: What’s Chris Flexen‘s upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: Could max out as an above average starter. Will show you 96, throws strikes with all four pitches, fastball has some tail to it.

Tommy N.: Thoughts on Esteury Ruiz?

Eric A Longenhagen: I keep missing him myself, but scouts down here like him, don’t love him. The guys I’ve spoken to like his baseball acumen, feel to hit, think he’s pretty advanced for the level. But not big on physical tools. He’s a 40 runner, hasn’t been great at 2B. There’s some physical projection and a chance he grows into some pop, how much is hard to say. Nice low-level flier for now.

Pearced: I haven’t seen much about Ryan Borucki despite him having a very good year. What do you think his reasonable outcome is?

Eric A Longenhagen: Keep in mind success came as a 23-year old in A-ball. Delivery has some violence to it, he spent time on DL this year. More of a relief look for me, but a potentially valuable lefty ‘pen option.

Tommy N.: Michel Baez‘s debut has been impressive what’s his future projection?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s freakish in a few ways. I can’t say I’ve ever seen a player this size (he’s 6-8) who is also this athletic and able to throw strikes as consistently as Baez is right now.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s an 80 fastball right now. Upper-90s with extension.

Eric A Longenhagen: He also has breaking ball feel. Mostly he’s just blowing heat past guys right now, and I know he’s just debuting, so it feels like he’s a teenager but keep in mind we’re talking about a 21-year old at Low-A. I have him top 10 in a loaded system right now.

Eric A Longenhagen: As far as his overall projection? I’m not sure. I don’t have a mental checkpoint for an arm like this because I’ve never seen anything quite like it.

Coolguy: Think Starling Heredia can make top 100 lists this fall? Or is he playing at too low of a level?

Eric A Longenhagen: He has the tools for that. The Pioneer league is hitter-friendly but Heredia has above average speed and power at age 18. He’s a big dude for 18, but can still really move. Probably more of a 45 FV guy for now like most, low-level tooled up guys, but if he keeps hitting like this all season he might berit consideration for the back of the 100

TC: Ryan Vilade is destroying the ball – any thoughts on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Really looked much more comfortable at the plate this spring than he did at times last  summer, when he was very clearly a power over hit prospect. I moved him way up to pre-draft 100 before the day of selection. http://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2017mlb&type=0&pos=all

James : Hey Eric. Peter Alonso. Can he become a legit 1B prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. I’m skeptical of R/R 1B but I know there are clubs who have a future 50 on Alonso. We might go from having no R/R college first basemen since Eric Karros to suddenly having three at one time. Trey Mancini is hitting (though I’m skeptical of it continuing given his approach), Rhys Hoskins keeps mashing at Triple-A and Alonso looks good when healthy. At least one or two of those guys is going to pan out.

mplais: Do you still have Matt Chapman at a 55 with the glove? SSS in the bigs of course, but he is making some incredible plays. +8 DRS already accrued in just 21 games.

Eric A Longenhagen: I had a future 60 on the glove and it’s clear he’s already there, if not surpassing it. I know scouts who had a future 7 on it.

Jeb: What should the Bucs do with Cutch?

Blackburn: What should the Pirates do now at the deadline?

Eric A Longenhagen: They’re in a tough spot. I’m probably buying if I’m them, but if someone is willing to blow me away for Cutch I’m at least listening to that. I wish Austin Meadows was healthy, hitting and allowed them to have a chance to have their prospect cake and eat the division too.

Justin: What did you think of the Shane Baz pick by the Pirates? Personally, I loved it.

Eric A Longenhagen: Loved it. I, unsurprisingly, like pitchers with huge stuff.

Frank Thomas on the Padres: Jose Siri and Wes Rogers have put on a show this year. Who would you say is an MLB comp for each?

Eric A Longenhagen: I avoid comps but Siri is a skinny but toolsy OF with above average speed and power, had frustrated scouts and coaches with erratic play and behavior. He’s impatient and a bit risky because of how aggressive he is at the plate but he has everyday tools, probably as a RF

Eric A Longenhagen: Rogers is cool, unique. Wrote him up here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-711/

Eric A Longenhagen: Carson just posted this: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/scouting-new-braves-prospec…

Jake: Have you had a chance to see Jo Adell? If so how does he look?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s eating AZL pitching alive.

Carlton: Would you have preferred Florial to Rutherford if you were the ChiSox?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not, though I’ve spoken with people who would have.

Dan: What is a good result for Maitan in Danville?  Keeping his head above water and developing his defense?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes.

Eric A Longenhagen: Keep in mind we’re talking about a 17-year old Dominican millionaire who has just left the comfort of the complex in Florida and is now living in Southern Virginia. Lots to adjust to the rest of the summer.

Shawn: Both born in 1999.  Both 18 years old now.  Who will be better in 3 years?  Bryan Mata Boston or Melvin Jimenez Dodgers?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mata has a better chance to start, more prototypical build.

Carlton: Any thoughts on Ryan McBroom?  And what are the chances that if he makes it to the show with the Yankees John Sterling‘s home run call is not some variation of “McBroom goes McBoom?”

Eric A Longenhagen: Mostly think he’s an org guy but NYY needed the 1B depth at the upper levels with Bird and Austin constantly hurt. He’s a superior fail safe to Mike Ford and maybe even Ji-Man Choi

Eric A Longenhagen: Royals/Padres analysis up now, as well: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/scouting-esteury-ruiz-and-m…

Daddy Yankee: What to do with Rutherford? Is it time to hop off board or will the power come?

Eric A Longenhagen: Haven’t heard of anything mechanical having changed. The only two speculative theory I have for you is that he’s preoccupied with driving the ball the other way

Big Tuna: Isn’t Willie Calhoun a solid name for the Dodgers to include in talks for an arm? He doesn’t have a real position but could DH for an AL team.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, but if I’m talking to the Dodgers I’m asking for three guys ahead of him.

bubblesdachimp: Eric, Have you got any updated thoughts on Paredes? Seems to be having a very similar year to Gleyber at South Bend?

Eric A Longenhagen: Body is better, still very probably a 3B long term and some want to move him to catcher. He can hit and scouts were glad to see him start to adjust after slumping for a while there.

Big Tuna: What type of package would the Red Sox need to put together for Neshek? He hasn’t had enough long term success to cost much right?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d say he has had long term success, pitching in the big leagues for 11 years with a sub-3 ERA. I’m asking for Mata or an improved (legitimately, in my opinion) Tzu-Wei Lin.

Joe: Do you think Mejia will stick as a catcher?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Robinson Covfefe: Do Kyle Lewis‘ early injury struggles worry you at all?

Eric A Longenhagen: What really worries me is that scouts have told me they think he doesn’t look totally healthy. He was removed with knee soreness again last night.

Eric A Longenhagen: Bat speed is still there, though. He’s one of the few guys who squared up Michel Baez down here in AZ

Chuck N Chino: small sample size caveat, but JP Crawford heating up in AAA.  Do you think he has turned the corner?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just as I consciously avoided overreacting to his early-season struggles, I’m doing so with his current tear.

Jock: Small sample size aside, do you think Austin Beck‘s poor performance in Arizona has backed up the concerns about his bat prior to the draft and do you think his issues are those that can be mitigated by coaching and experience?

Eric A Longenhagen: He has looked almost exactly as described, very talented but extremely raw. It’s not discouraging, just reinforcing the fact that he’s a bit of a project.

mplais: To you, who are the most interesting guys currently playing in the Cape League?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jeremy Eierman, Griffin Conine

Shin-Soo Covfefe: Do you think Raimel Tapia can be anything more than a contact hitter that gets helped by coors?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not, but what if his ability to make contact is so special that we shouldn’t care?

Ronny: Do you think Nick Allen stays at SS and do you see him eventually developing into a top-50 prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes he stays at SS, for some scouts he’s the best defensive high school SS they’ve seen. Probably doesn’t hit enough to be a top 50 overall prospect.

Vottomatic: Is there cause for concern for Jesse Winker‘s complete lack of power in the upper minors? The track record for bat-only guys without thump is not promising

Eric A Longenhagen: Agreed, but the contact and ability to walk still makes him an average everyday guy for me

zach: has Jorge Alfaro‘s weak hitting season so far weakened your opinion on him going forward?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not really. This is just kind of how he is from a BB and K standpoint. I think there’s going to be more power than he showed this year and think he’ll be a solid, if frustrating, big leaguer at peak.

Carl: Do you buy the Heliot Ramos hype?

Eric A Longenhagen: I buy that he’s already got plus raw power, arm strength and speed

Mike: Is Vlad Jr. the top prospect in baseball by the end of this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Would involve Amed Rosario graduating

AM: What are the chances Isan Diaz ends up amounting to anything more than a low average/20 hr hitter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Small, but with ball/strike recognition that’ still a 2-2.5 WAR player

DMoney: Is Luis Robert or Hunter Greene the better fantasy prospect to stash?

Eric A Longenhagen: For fantasy? Probably Robert. Speed/power

Bryan: Can you give your opinion on the Reds fleet of young pitchers. It seems like all of them are either getting hurt (Desclafani, Finnegan, Reed) or ending up in the bullpen (Stephenson, Iglesies, Lorenzen). Which pitchers do you see establishing themselves as at least average starters? Thanks.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/82173590/cuban-free-agent-raisel-…

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Greene and Mahle are starters. Gutierrez has a chance to be. Jacob Heatherly is an interesting, long term project.

Eric A Longenhagen: Tony Santillan is likely a reliever, but his stuff is too good to give up on him as a starter. Luis Castillo is a very interesting case. Sustains that velo as a starter and has a plus changeup (which I misevaluated over the winter), breaking ball and command are not great

Billy Beane: How mucheck should I care about a prospect having relatives who were major leaguers? Like if Vlad Guerrero Jr had a different name would he be an elite prospect or just a very good one? Or for a lower profile example, would anyone care about Chase Pinder if his brother wasn’t Chad?

Eric A Longenhagen: I know studies have been conducted that show the relatives of former pro players are magnitudes more likely to end up in pro baseball than the average person but that’s probably about financial advantages as well as genetic ones. Every prospect is evaluated without family in mind, ideally, but talking about bloodlines adds color to the player’s narrative.

Jon: DJ Wilson has been on a tear since returning from the DL, and has at least looked solid since a horrible April. Small-ish sample still, but is he putting the baseball skills together to get the most out of the athleticism? Possible top 5 org guy by season’s end, if he remains in the system?

Eric A Longenhagen: Possible top 5, yes. Top 4 for me are fairly stable (Candy, De la Cruz, ALbertos, Alzolay) and then there’s a mix of Aramis Ademan, Paredes, the arms they just drafted, Wilson, Hatch.

Bryce: How Chris Shaw improved his stock? If he can play competently in LF, is he a top 100 prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: He has raised it, top 100 maybe a bit much for me. Not a good athlete, power is very easy though.

RotoLando: You are always at the mercy of the question queue for subjects.  What would you like to talk about, Eric?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sharks, David Lynch, how cool my wife is….

Eric A Longenhagen: but the list isn’t long before we start getting to baseball things again.

Eric A Longenhagen: So this is fine

Danny: Dude where the hell where you? This whole place is mayhem. The servers went down, there were a couple trade, and Cistulli overthrew Appleman and is now running the asylum and bringing back Notgraphs

Eric A Longenhagen: I was in Seattle for a bit and then in Olympic National Park. Cistulli sent me the video of Appelman tied to a chair, being forced to listen to poetry about mediocrity until NotGraphs became a thing again.

Mounds: How many dongs will Devers hit ROS?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll guess 10, 6 of them very quickly and then pitchers make an adjustment.

CB: Every week I ask about Luke Voit, who you didn’t even give an HM on your prospects list. Then he gets called up and steals playing time at 1B, and you mysteriously stop chatting for two weeks.  Can we talk about him now?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s very entertaining. Plus raw power, pull-heavy approach. I think he has good hitter’s timing and that he’ll get to some of the power, the question is, at first base only, if it’s enough. He was certainly hitting like it at Memphis but let’s keep in mind that he’s 26 and is unlikely to keep up a .360-something BABIP when confronted with big league shifts.

Alec Asher Wojciechowski: Are you going to do a midseason update on the top 100 and/or team prospect lists?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. I’m just about done with updated org top 10s. Tell teams to stop distracting me with trades.

Alec Asher Wojciechowski: Any thoughts on Patrick Sandoval or Abraham Toro-Hernandez?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sandoval was a nice overslot flier in the 11th round of the 2015 draft. Solid athlete with curveball feel. That’s typically enough at lower levels. Toro-Hernandez I’ve seen at 3B, not catching, but he has the arm for it and a chance to hit for some power.

Billy Beane: Seen any of Jesus Luzardo? Seems like an exciting prospect

Eric A Longenhagen: Tonight, I think?

Braník Best: You put a 55 FV on Devers before the season. Would you still expect him to be 55 or has he crossed the 60 threshold?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s crossed it

El Fuego: What can you tell us about the prospects the A’s (the ones not named Treinen) got from the Nats in the great reliever purge?

Eric A Longenhagen: Luzardo was a polished Florida lefty with changeup and breaking ball feel but a mature body and low-90s velo as a rising HS senior. As a senior he started throwing a lot harder, then blew out. As he rehabbed he got in better shape, came back throwing as hard as he did pre-injury. Hoping to see him tonight in Mesa but have to double-check if he goes tonight.

Eric A Longenhagen: Neuse is a power over hit 3B prospect with a plus arm. 40 run, 55 raw power, fringe bat but fairly patient.

Greg: Did you catch Banda’s MLB debut? To my untrained eye he looked excellent. 96 with three pitches. Pitching in Reno is hard – is he better than his number indicate?

Eric A Longenhagen: I did, actually. I think the changeup will end up being his best pitch, still have an overall 50 on him.

Bob: Do you see Verlander to the Cubs as a realistic possibility?

Eric A Longenhagen: After they made a deal with the White Sox, I’ll believe anything is possible now. Not sure they have the horses for Verlander, though. Unless they’re willing to part with pieces on the big club.

Chris: Do you see the Rockies sticking McMahon at 1B? Does his bat play well enough to stick there? I have seen that they are also trying him at 2B and rumors have been that they like what they see there defensively.

Eric A Longenhagen: Scouts outside the org say 1B-only.

Julio Pepper: My good friend Maxamuz and I were discussing Khris Davis’s atrocious arm yesterday. He’s obviously a strong person, but this doesn’t translate into arm strength. I know it doesn’t work like that, but from a biomechanical point of view, what *is* the major determinant of how hard/fast a person can throw? Is it mostly how fast you can rotate your arm about the shoulder? What do scouts look for?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t know if there are specific coefficients for each of the variables but, mostly, it’s internal rotational velocity of the shoulder and elbow. How you produce it depends on several other physical factors.

Eric A Longenhagen: Papers have been written on the subject and are available online.

Kirk: What are your thoughts on Sal Romano? Does he have the stuff to stay in the Reds’ rotation long-term?

Eric A Longenhagen: I tend to think he’s a reliever but he has exceeded my expectations a bit this year and some think he could be a #4 starter

AM: What do you think of James Kaprielian going forward post injury?

Eric A Longenhagen: Can’t say until he’s back

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I’ve been at this for nearly two hours so I’m going to rapid fire as many as I can for the next 15 minutes, then I need to prepare to pod with Cistulli….

DMoney: What is the most badass name of a prospect you’ve come across?

Eric A Longenhagen: There are just so many of them. Brusdar Graterol is my favorite right now

Johnny5Alive: Does Buehler still come up as a reliever this year? Or, does he get a shot in the rotation when another dodger starter inevitably goes on the DL?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s more likely that you see him as a reliever but they’ve handled his innings so carefully this year that maybe that feel comfortable letting him go for 5 innings. I think a lot of it depends on how the kid feels, how his stuff looks as the year goes on. Not set in stone just now.

dominikk85: Kind of a late question about the draft: were would hunter greene ranked as a hitter compared to the other hs hitters beck, lewis and adell?

Eric A Longenhagen: Somewhere in the middle of the first round. I’d have had the names you mentioned ahead of him.

Jared: Jeren Kendall has hit well for 5 games in Ogden. Future HoF?

Eric A Longenhagen: Inarguably

Stros Fan: Out of these 3, Austin Hays, Colton welker and Keibert Ruiz. Which one has highest ceiling, lowest floor and most likely to hit their projection. Who has increased their projection the most? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Ruiz has the highest ceiling as a catcher who can hit. Welker has raised his stock most for me of the three. I like Hays but think his approach might be exposed eventually

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Oscar Arzaga a bit, the kids they drafted look alright and I’ve flagged Alfredo Tavarez for performance but haven’t seen him yet.

Jacoby Jars: I’ve watched Nick Williams make hard contact all over the field, and he has HR power everywhere. Why was a guy with this hit/power combo off all the preseason lists?

Eric A Longenhagen: Career-long approach issues

Kristen: How would you prioritize proximity to the bigs v.and ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m a ceiling guy, which is why I like the Future Value system previously used here because it forces me to look at the proximity aspect moreso than I would if left to my own devices

Dan: Sixto Sanchez getting lots of buzz. How close do you think Medina is in terms of upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: I actually think, just on upside, it’s pretty close. Medina has better secondaries.

whyteshooz: There’s been some buzz about the possibility of the Yanks promoting Chance Adams. What are your thoughts on that happening and his long term keeper dynasty value?

Eric A Longenhagen: 93-96, plus slider, above average curveball. Wrote him up here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-61/

Eric A Longenhagen: I know scouts who think the Yankees should just call him up instead of looking for an arm on the trade market. He needs to add another sequence or two but a new pitching coach and battery mate might get him there. League average starter for me, maybe a tick above.

Dan R: Aramis Ademan seems to be a name popping up in a lot of places. Any thoughts on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Really like him. Chance for plus hit, average power and to stay on the middle infield somewhere.

Nate Pontician: You mentioned in a “Good Phight” podcast, that you’ve never been too high on Nick Williams, but you’d be interested in what he could do. So, what are your thoughts so far?

Eric A Longenhagen: So far so good. I do think he’ll post well below average on base numbers but might hit enough that he’s still a good everyday guy. Say hi to the family for me.

Nate J.: Is there a reason why you’re not a fan of Josh Naylor? He’s hit very well in AA (SSS I know) and looks to profile well at 1B

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t think he’s a good athlete and has no margin for error as a 1B-only guy.

justin: Andrew Knizner is quietly putting up a nice season in the Cardinals system, does he have the glove to stick at C?

Eric A Longenhagen: What I’ve heard from scouts suggests he does not.

Alex: Nick Neidert recently got called up to AA, what is his upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: #3/4. Pitchability, plus change, plus command

Markus: Assuming good health, who ya got, Espinoza or Morejon?

Eric A Longenhagen: Espinoza, but it’s close.

Eric A Longenhagen: There are many more interesting questions in the queue but I must depart. Thanks for stopping by. I’ll see you next Tuesday. Drink full and descend.