Robinson Canó Reaches the End of the Road in Queens
Forced to squeeze their roster down to a 26-man limit on Monday, the Mets decided to say goodbye to veteran second baseman Robinson Canó, designating him and the two years left on his contract for assignment. Canó, who will turn 40 this year, struggled greatly in 12 games in 2021, going 8-for-41 with just a single extra-base hit, a solo homer off of Zach Davies. While he could theoretically be claimed on waivers before being released, any team adding him by this route would commit to the $40 million still owed him through 2023, which is, let’s just say, unlikely to happen.
The decisions both to play Canó and to cut him this year were surprisingly easy. He did play very well the last time we saw him, in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, hitting .316/.352/.544 with 10 homers for a 142 wRC+ and 1.3 WAR in just 49 games. The problem is that the last time we saw him was 2020 thanks to a PED suspension that November, his second positive steroid test under MLB’s drug-testing regimen and one that cost him the entire ’21 campaign.
I wasn’t really worried about the suspension itself; I’ve spent the last decade trying to find some kind of discernible pattern, short- or long-term, of over- or under-performance for the group of players busted for PED use and have yet to find anything actually useful. But what did worry me was the missed time coming on the back of an artificially short season for a 39-year-old player playing a premium defensive position. While Canó was quite good in 2020, his 2019 season was by far his worst season in a long time.
While I think it made perfect sense for the Mets to open the season with Canó and see what he had left, there was no particular reason for them to give him a very long leash. Jeff McNeil is playing well, and the team should roll with him starting most games at second. And with the need to cut the roster from 28 to 26 players, who would have been a better idea to cut? Luis Guillorme has been a rock-solid role player during the last few years, and even if he were struggling, he’s the backup shortstop. Dominic Smith hasn’t had a great start, but he’s contributed more than Canó has. Optioning Tylor Megill or Drew Smith would have have been completely absurd.
Mets owner Steve Cohen certainly ought to know a sunk cost when he sees one, and there’s no psychological need to salvage the Canó trade, as it was something this régime inherited from the Wilpons and former general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, not a transaction that they masterminded. The Mets expect to contend this year and are in first place by three games, so this is a team that ought to be more interested in certainty rather than chasing the chance that Canó turns things around.
Is Canó done? I wouldn’t necessarily shovel that last bit of dirt onto his career quite that quickly. Neither ZiPS (.254/.298/.393) nor Steamer (.249/.298/.385) are all that optimistic, but the margin of error here is absolutely huge. For a team that’s actually desperate at second base or a lousy one that can afford to absorb such a risky player, there’s still an argument for Canó as an addition to the roster. It wouldn’t be preposterous for the White Sox, for example, to take a look given that the combination of Leury García and Josh Harrison has been positively dreadful at second.
Whether or not Canó bounces back to close out his 10-year, $216 million contract, there’s no denying that his career is coming to an end. And overall, it’s a sad one, particularly given the friendly rivalry between Canó and another of the great second basemen of that era: Dustin Pedroia. Which player was the better second baseman was a hotly debated topic a decade ago and a fun part of the usual Red Sox-Yankees rivalry. While I don’t want to name any names, a couple of huge fans I know on Twitter spent a long time arguing that question, frequently roping me in the conversation to settle a particular aspect of the argument.
It would have been crazy to say in 2012, but I assume now that neither will make the Hall of Fame. Knee injuries basically ended Pedroia’s career at age 33, and his counting numbers are likely too light for him to get 75% of Hall voters on his side. Canó’s numbers are closer, but he’s unlikely to reach 3,000 hits. More importantly, if the first PED suspension didn’t slam the door shut in Cooperstown, the second one certainly did. While I intend to check Canó’s box someday, I’m confident I’m in the minority.
| Player | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SB | OPS+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robinson Canó | .296 | .343 | .477 | 10774 | 1515 | 3188 | 642 | 43 | 406 | 1581 | 710 | 64 | 121 | 64.7 |
| Dustin Pedroia | .295 | .356 | .426 | 8314 | 1190 | 2449 | 512 | 20 | 180 | 939 | 785 | 160 | 108 | 56.9 |
Is Robinson Canó done? Maybe, maybe not. The Mets rightly decided that they didn’t want to be the ones who needed to find out the answer to that question.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Definitely a no-brainer here. The Mets look good and are in a position where every win might matter, and Cano looks like a player that was going to cost them wins. This was also a player that absolutely despised by their fanbase, so it’s not like they had to worry about a PR hit the way Detroit will when they cut Miggy.
$1 says the Tigers simply let Miggy’s contract run out after the 2023 season. No sense in taking the PR hit of cutting him when the team’s only gonna win 75-ish games.
I don’t know that would be a PR hit to cutting a non-performing HOF on a contender or even the Angels
Also, the while the Tigers are better than their 7-14 record, even the more charitable BaseRuns assessment puts them below .500. It’s a lot easier to stomach this when it’s not obviously costing you a playoff run. Per the FG odds, they’ve got less than a 5% chance to make the playoffs, and an extra couple of wins would merely get them closer to .500.
Let’s also call it what it is- While Detroit certainly could have signed someone better than Miggy this offseason, it’s not like he’s blocking playing time from some hot prospect or better player on the roster. The only 2 prospects of note in Toledo (Kriedler, Greene) are both hurt.& the likely replacement (Haase) is hitting worse than Miggy is.
He’s far from their biggest problem right now. Basically, a league average bat, poor baserunner, no defensive value.
Right–in theory, Torkelson and Candelario can both play 1B and DH. But with Paredes gone, they’ve currently got 3 guys for 3 spots. And Paredes wasn’t even much of a “hot” prospect. More like a “warm” prospect.
They may also try to play Greene in CF when he gets healthy, meaning Grossman and Meadows can continue to hang out in the corners (unless they want to rotate both of them and Baddoo through the DH spot, but I would rather ensure that Baddoo gets consistent PAs somewhere).
The Mets wisely made the decision the Angels needed to make a couple years ago with Pujols. I’ll give the Tigers some leeway on Miggy with him approaching and now hitting the 500 Hr and 3,000 H milestones, but they’re going to have to make that decision soon as well. Maybe even this year if the Tigers are in the mix come June/July.
I wonder if the Tigers hang onto Miggy anyway because cutting him might cause a riot among the rest of the players. Miggy sounds like too much of a good veteran presence to flippingly toss away.
Pujols was still valuable to the Angels in those final years as at least a bench bat even if nothing else, especially since last year they could’ve easily played both Pujols and Walsh (the latter in RF) after Fowler went down for the year, even despite not knowing that the rest of their starting outfield would succumb to major injuries as well.
Oh well, the Angels’ loss was the Dodgers’ (and now Cardinals’) gain.
All but nine of Pujols’ games with the Angels was as a starter. I’d probably call him *useful* as a pinch-hitter rather than actually valuable.
Besides, even more than Pujols, Miggy still has a better bat than a lot of Major League bench players, right? So why cut him if he’s still one of the best 13 hitters on the roster?
Robinson Cano to the White Sox would definitely be interesting–they could try a Harrison / Cano platoon. I don’t think it’ll work, but I suppose it can’t get much worse than what they’re running out there.
this assumes Cano is a viable defensive 2nd baseman and/or a viable hitter. I don’t think he’s either of these, but I know he’s not both
Having watched all the Mets games this year, I can confidently say, “no”, he is absolutely not viable at 2B any more. In fact, I would have significantly more confidence that he could still help someone at DH, if he were willing to go play a couple weeks in the minors to get his timing back. But he is completely unplayable in the field at this point. He looked like he was moving in slow motion, and his range was literally the worst I can recall seeing in years…
I’m not sure anyone is going to bring him in to DH. Maybe if he could play 1B and someone’s current first baseman gets hurt.
If it was his “timing” then sure. He literally cannot pull the ball in the air due to his bat speed collapsing
That .254/.298/.393 ZiPS line is actually above league average now, no?
Baseball-reference has the league hitting .232/.306/.368 right now, although it isn’t clear to me if the change in run environment is accounted for in ZiPS rest of season projections or not.
Yes, although the projection system was trained on a league environment with a livelier ball. So I think we have to take that with a grain of salt.
If only there would have been a half dozen middle infielders available in free agency last year. Alas, they had no options to improve themselves there while in their championship window.
Doing nothing at 2B and assuming everything else would cover for it is the worst thing the White Sox did during an underwhelming off season.
I wish I was so terrible at my job that someone would pay me $40MM to go away.
The trick is to be really good at it for 10 years first
There’s always a catch…
Not sure how the contract situation works, but if a team can grab him for the minimum now, I think he can provide some value as a Lenny Harris-esque bat off of the bench.
As a Mets fan, I think they made the right call and feel the current players on their bench offer more than Cano does at this point.
I have a feeling an MLB team will take a shot before he ends up being the #3 hitter for the Long Island Ducks.
Except for J.D. Davis, who is terrible. Still, Cano isn’t really any better.
Davis is league average this year and 20% over league average for his career.
Wait. You’re a HOF voter? Cool.
Here’s a question. Let’s assume he doesn’t really want to play for like a prorated minimum contract. He’s made boatloads of money and he doesn’t really feel like putting in the grind for a bench role for not a huge amount of money (relative to what he’s already earned).
Does he need to keep playing or attempting to play to earn the remaining money on the Mets deal? My understanding is that if he just voluntarily retired with the Mets, they’d be off the hook for the remainder of his money. So if he retires now, are they off the hook? I think the answer is yes and therefore he is going to keep playing or working out and making a modest effort to latch on somewhere. But maybe I’m wrong.
I’m almost sure you are wrong. He gets that money regardless. Only question is I’d Mets pay all of it themselves or if a team signs him for the minimum and Mets “save” ~ 700k
He only doesn’t get the money the Mets owe him if he files retirement paperwork with the league before the contract’s up. If he’s playing somewhere else in the majors, then he is going to be paid 1) league minimum from his new team as well as 2) the $40M from the Mets minus that league minimum. So “grinding out a bench role” which getting to play major league baseball with little pressure on him and be paid a massive amount to do so.
I think what CC is asking is: does have to TRY to play? Or is it as simple as if he doesn’t file retirement paperwork, he gets paid, whether he’s “grinding it out” or just sitting on a beach drinking MaiTai’s?
Right, so if his agent calls him and is like, “Robbie, the White Sox want to bring you in on a minimum contract. You want to play?” and he says no, is that grounds for some kind of grievance? Not that he would do that or that I care about the Mets saving money, I’m just curious.
I don’t think it is, no. He’s simply a free agent once released by the Mets; he’s owed that money still if he’s drinking Mai Tais on the beach, or if he’s still grinding away for a role on a contender. The only way the Mets don’t pay him that money is if he gives it up by filing for official retirement status with the league; they would maybe have grounds for a grievance if he publicly announced retirement without filing that paperwork, but obviously there’s no reason to do that.
Excuse me, Senor? May I speak to you please? I asked for a Mai Tai and they brought me a Pina Colada, and I said no salt. No salt for the margarita, but it had salt on it, big grains of salt, floating in the glass…
office space man. I love you for this
Short answer: That money is his. Nobody is taking that away from him. The Mets will only save money if he signs a contract with someone else. If he wants to just be done with playing, that’s it.
Right. The only benefit to actually filing the retirement paperwork is the pension (though most players will be better off waiting until age 62, or close to it) and the medical benefits. Once they aren’t on a team, I believe they lose the medical benefits, though I could be wrong there. If they do, that would be one reason for a player to officially retire, but not when they are owed as much as Cano.
This isn’t entirely a relevant comparison, but I think it’s fun anyway:
A platinum health insurance plan in the State of New York is about $1100 per month. It would take more than 36,000 months of premiums, or 3000 years, for Cano to pay $40 million dollars in health care premiums. Heck, he could probably just pay COBRA and he wouldn’t even have to switch health insurance plans.
Thank goodness the Wilpons are gone because they never understood sunk cost and would probably force Cano in the lineup nightly. Nice to see some praise for Guillorme because for some reason many Mets fans don’t like him despite Luis being a solid defender and very solid on base guy.
It really doesn’t make any sense that Guillorme is being that productive, because he’s got no power and you would think that pitchers would just knock the bat out of his hands. But the numbers don’t lie.
It makes slightly more sense watching his ABs bc he fouls off pitches and grinds away for pitch after pitch. When pitchers throw something in the zone he finds holes with a compact line drive swing. It’s true that it’s weird that pitchers don’t challenge him even more, but I think they can’t knock the bat out of his hands cuz he has excellent bat control and basically plays pepper when he swings. He never looks *overpowered* even tho he doesn’t have much pop.
That explains how a guy who has a career .069 ISO, 2.2 speed score, AND never made a Cistulli Fringe-Five list has become a solid major leaguer. Spoiling two-strike pitches is Guillorme’s one weird trick.
Pitchers hate him!
Jordan Hicks especially!
Username jhicks12 does not like this comment
Have you seen his hands!?! 🙂
Now that I think of it, I haven’t really noticed them before. But I googled him just now and maybe it’s just that now that you mention it I’m suggestible but…his hands do look big.
Just to make sure I wasn’t missing something, I googled at Lindor. Hands=normal. I googled JD Davis. Hands=normal. I googled Nimmo. His hands are bigger than Lindor’s, but definitely smaller than Guillorme’s.
Watching Mets games, Guillorme is one of those non batting gloves guys. So I don’t know if they’re above average or what, but they’re noticeable when he bats.
A little surprised by this comment. I’ve never seen any indication that Luis G is not liked by the fan base. I’d say he’s generally liked, or at worst neutral, and that the fans universally preferred they kept him over Cano, for whatever that’s worth.
I have never heard Mets fans say anything but positive things abt Guillorme
I’ve seen plenty of people on social media and on a couple Mets blogs hate on him.
It is still unfathomable to me that they could not void his contract when he was caught cheating. That has to be a breach of contract, and if it is not, whose lawyers need to be fired for allowing the team that signed him not to have a clause that makes that a breach? Why are major league teams seemingly voluntarily paying players who get suspended for cheating millions upon millions of dollars.
The CBA probably prevents it
Then that’s an issue worth fighting over.
I’ve read somewhere here that it could incentivize some undesirable behaviors from teams trying to get out of underwater contracts. Also seems to open the floodgates to future or additional conditions which allow a guaranteed contract to be cancelled. I don’t see the MLBPA giving the owners/league that type of power without a serious fight.
At the very least, teams turned a blind eye to PED use in the past because they benefitted from the extreme performances driving fan interest. It is possible that they even encouraged it directly or indirectly to improve their odds of winning and get those performances. If you allow teams to invalidate contracts over PED usage then you put them in a position where they want to actively assist in a cover up when the player is good and they are earning excess value, then leak damning info on a player when he declines so they can get out of a contract. I can absolutely see a reason for MLBPA to want to protect its members from that sort of risk.
Yeah, the rules about this are entirely governed by the CBA. Per the terms of the CBA, he’s been punished.
The real unfathomable action is a guy that is very clearly on his last contract, or at least his last lucrative one, cheating and losing $24 million in the process. Financially it is a quite stupid move.
And not just 1x, but, he did it 2x! So he probably lost $36M when the other 80 game suspension is included. & ruined his legacy.
He was a no doubter HOF’er..now he’s another cautionary tale.
A twisted mind would say he could fit at Cinci.
Hasn’t Cincinnati suffered enough?
“Twisted mind”.
More seriously: he’s in their price range, he won’t take PAs from anybody better, and he’s pure upside. He can’t possibly make them any worse.
I think I’d rather bet on Mike Moustakas, Joey Votto, and (especially) India bouncing back than going and getting Cano.
Are you sure the Reds FO knows that?
“he’s pure upside”
I don’t know that a washed-up, twice suspended pariah with apparently nothing at all in the tank could be described as “pure upside” by anyone but his agent or his mother.
Or his girlfriend
Cano seems like a pretty borderline hall of fame candidate from a statistical standpoint and even aside from the suspensions, I don’t see really any soft factors in his favor. I guess he did win a World Series, but I’ve never heard any narrative of him being a leader if that team in any way.
Without the suspension he might’ve gotten to 3000 knocks, assuming he was still starting every day.
Yeah, I meant with the stats he actually ended up with. 1.5 more years of production would have definitely put him over the top, no doubt. Of course then you have to consider what benefit the PED that cost him those years gave him. But if we are just assuming he never got caught and not that he never used PED, then yes, easy HOF.
Without the suspensions he would have been a pretty easy HOF. Over 2,500 hits, 335 dingers, etc. And right or wrong, it was basically a decade whether he, or Pedroia were the best 2B in the AL (although neither was as good as Utley at their peak). And he had longevity over Pedroia and Utley.
Him being a “leader” on a Series winning team is irrelevant to his chances in totality.
You don´t think Cano had a better peak than Utley??
Not sure how Cano would be borderline (without the PED’s of course) Just a hair under 70 BWAR, 7th in JAWS at 2B, a career avg over 300, more than 2600 hits, 1300 RBI, 6 top 10 MVP finishes including 4 top five finishes, 8 All Star Games. He hits a nice mismatch of counting stats, rate states and analytic benchmarks.
The mismatch (is it mismatch or mishmash?) guys seem to do the worst. Look at Scott Rolen; look at Larry Walker. I know Jeff Kent is much worse than Cano by JAWS, but they are very close in fWAR and Kent arguably has better counting stats and won an MVP award. If Kent is on the wrong side of “borderline,” hard to imagine Cano sailing on through.
Of course, obviously, there will never be a way to actually settle this debate. And for the record, Cano would be an easy yes for me without the PED suspensions.
Well, if Harold Baines can get in…
Well, if you don’t want to call someone better than Harold Baines a borderline candidate because Harold Baines got in, then I think you just don’t want to use that term. The fact is, Cano does not fit into an “every player that did X is in the hall of fame,” at least without getting comically specific. Plenty of good statistical players are on the outside or took a long time to get in. Cano does not seem similar to the players that get in quickly, at the very least.
Minor correction: The first paragraph says he “struggled greatly in 12 games in 2021, going 8-for-41” but he didn’t play in 2021, those are his stats from this year.
Who will pick him up? Tigers hopefully
I wonder if the Mets consulted with Bobby Bonilla before DFAing Canó.
Could you have possibly picked a more tired joke?
Cano seems like a decent fit for the Pirates. They have no worthwhile bat at second. They do have worthwhile gloves. Perhaps his veteran presence would benefit all those youngsters.