Rockies Send Nolan Jones Back to the Guardians

After an impressive rookie season for the Rockies in 2023, Nolan Jones struggled mightily last year, missing roughly two and a half months due to recurring lower back woes and a left knee injury, and slipping below replacement level when he was able to play. On Saturday, the Rockies traded him back to the Guardians — the team that originally drafted and developed him — in exchange for superutilityman Tyler Freeman. It’s puzzling to see the Rockies punt a player who just a year ago appeared to be a franchise cornerstone, particularly as their acquisition of Freeman is driven by the loss of starting second baseman Thairo Estrada to a broken wrist, a short-term problem considering Colorado is unlikely to contend this season.

The 26-year-old Jones hit just .227/.321/.320 (70 wRC+) with three homers in 297 plate appearances for the Rockies last season while splitting his time between left and right field. His 67-point drop from his 137 wRC+ in 2023 tied for the second largest in the majors:

While Jones has shown that he can be a productive major leaguer, the same can’t yet be said for the 25-year-old Freeman, who hit .209/.305/.321 with seven homers in 383 PA for the Guardians last year while mainly playing center field but spotting at second base, shortstop, and third base. His 84 wRC+ was his highest mark in parts of three major league seasons, which isn’t saying much.

The Guardians drafted Jones in the second round in 2016 out of a Philadelphia high school, and he made our Top 100 Prospects list annually from from 2019-22 on the strength of a strong arm and 70-grade raw power from the left side, peaking at no. 52 in 2021 as a 50-FV prospect. Originally a third baseman, he was blocked in Cleveland by perennial All-Star José Ramírez, and at a listed 6-foot-4, 220 pounds, Jones outgrew the position physically. He played 28 games with the Guardians, mainly as a right fielder, in 2022, but his stock slipped as he transitioned away from third base and struggled to make contact at the major league level. On November 15, 2022, the Guardians traded him to the Rockies in exchange for middle infielder Juan Brito, a 50-FV prospect who placed at no. 78 on this year’s Top 100.

After tearing up the Pacific Coast League at the start of 2023, Jones got the call from the Rockies and put together an impressive rookie season, hitting .297/.389/.542 with 20 homers and 20 steals in 106 games — a pace that would have put him in the 30/30 club over the course of a full season — while leading the team in wRC+ (137) and WAR (3.8), and finishing fourth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. Yet he struggled out of the gate in 2024, then missed all of May and the first half of June due to a lower back strain; he had been bothered by back issues in spring training but they weren’t deemed serious enough at the time to sideline him. While rehabbing from the back injury, he sprained his left knee, prolonging his rehab. Upon returning in mid-June, he had more success in that his walk rate improved, but his power did not materialize.

Jones landed on the IL again just before the All-Star break as his back issues returned. In late July, he conceded that he had been pressing at the plate, saying, “It’s been a physical and mental battle for me this year, and I’m trying to stay positive and know that my time is coming.” His time would get harder first. On August 4, his fiancée Morgan Gougher gave birth to daughter Kamryn, but the joy of the occasion was tempered by a health scare. The newborn struggled to breathe due to fluid in her lungs, spent three days in the neonatal intensive care unit, and required supplemental oxygen for more than a month; thankfully, she is now healthy. Jones finally returned to the lineup on August 20, but still showed little sign of the power or speed that characterized his 2023 season.

Here’s how his season looked in terms of traditional stats:

Jones always had a tall task ahead of him to replicate his 2023 numbers, which were driven by a .401 batting average on balls in play offsetting a strikeout rate just shy of 30%. As the splits show, he had little chance to settle in during any of those three stretches in 2024. A spike in walk rate drove his production during that middle period, and it’s fair to wonder how much his drop in swing rate (from 41.5% overall in 2023 to 39.9% last year, though never varying by more than about a point across those three stretches) was driven by a desire to avoid the pain of taking a big cut and missing.

As it happens, Statcast’s bat-tracking metrics illustrate that Jones not only didn’t swing as hard as he did in the second half of 2023 (the data for which were recently released), but he also swung hard much less often as the 2024 season progressed and cut down the length of his swing. Once he did, he was able to square the ball up with greater frequency, but he didn’t hit it as hard, and rarely barreled it:

Jones’ 2023 barrel rate placed in the 94th percentile. He didn’t have enough batted ball events to qualify for Statcast’s leaderboard in 2024, but his barrel rate placed in the 38th percentile among players with at least 50 BBE. His overall rate of pulling the ball in the air dropped from a middling 14.9% in 2023 to a meager 10.1% in ’24, with his xSLG falling from .499 to .322.

All of which is to say that it’s pretty clear Jones wasn’t at his best in 2024, either physically or mentally. He’s been hitting the ball harder this spring (90.9 mph average exit velocity) but without much power, so it’s not yet obvious that he’s back to his previous form. Still, it’s not as though the Rockies moved him to make room for a better outfielder, as neither 23-year-old Zac Veen (40+ FV) nor 22-year-old Yanquiel Fernandez (45 FV) have had success in Triple-A; Veen was optioned on Sunday, one day after the trade, while Fernandez was sent down earlier this month. Jones won’t even be arbitration eligible until after this season, so he still has four full years of club control remaining.

What’s also not clear yet is where Jones will fit into the Guardians lineup. Steven Kwan is the starter in left field, and Lane Thomas is in center, though he’s coming off an uneven season; after hitting for a 107 wRC+ with Washington, he was traded to Cleveland in late July and posted an 84 wRC+ the rest of the way. Prior to the Jones trade, lefty Will Brennan and righty Jhonkensy Noel were on track to platoon as part of a group that ranked just 22nd in our Positional Power Rankings. The 27-year-old Brennan had an underwhelming season (.264/.309/.388, 98 wRC+, 0.5 WAR) in 2024, while the 23-year-old Noel was more productive, bopping 13 homers in 198 PA while batting .218/.288/.486 (118 wC+) with 0.6 WAR. Both have options remaining, whereas Jones does not.

According to manager Stephen Vogt, the situation is in flux:

“I had informed Will that he was going to be on the opening day roster,” said Vogt. “With the trade happening as quickly as it did, I told him that’s now up in the air.

“No final decisions have been made. We just have to work through some things over the next few days. This was unforeseen. When you make a move or a trade, people get affected by it. We have to sort out what the best roster for us looks like.”

Jones, Brennan, and Kwan all have a smattering of center field experience at the big league level, but not enough to draw any conclusions from other than that they’re better off in corner outfield spots. To these eyes, the most logical fit is a Jones/Noel platoon in right field, with Brennan backing up Thomas in center.

While the Guardians are getting a right fielder who’s got some power, the Rockies are getting a different type of player in Freeman, a second-round pick in 2017 out of a Rancho Cucamonga, California high school. Like Jones, he was a perennial figure on Top 100 lists, making ours three times (2020–22), peaking at no. 88 as a 50-FV prospect in 2021 on the strength of a contact-oriented, skills-over-tools profile. He appeared bound for second base and drew comparison to DJ LeMahieu.

With Andrés Giménez locking down second base until he was dealt to the Blue Jays in December, and with Cleveland higher on Brayan Rocchio and Gabriel Arias as its shortstop options, the Guardians moved Freeman to center field last year. He made a team-high 97 appearances there (82 starts), but he landed on the Replacement Level Killers list and was displaced by the acquisition of Thomas, after which he spent a good chunk of his time bouncing around the infield, making 10 appearances at shortstop, eight at third base, and six at second base. His outfield defense was solid (3 DRS, 0 FRV), but his bat was not. His 87.7 mph average exit velocity placed in the 22nd percentile, his 34.6% hard-hit rate in the 21st, his .338 xSLG in the 11th, and his 3.2% barrel rate in the sixth.

The Rockies like Freeman’s versatility and have an immediate opening for him at second base. After non-tendering former Gold Glove winner Brendan Rodgers last year, they signed Estrada to a one-year deal in January to be their starting second baseman, but he’ll be out four to eight weeks with a right wrist fracture, resulting from a hit-by-pitch last Thursday.

“The ability to play a variety of positions – let’s say the triangle in the middle, short, second and center – gives us some versatility,” Rockies general manager Bill Schmidt said of Freeman. “There’s a speed component. He’s a contact hitter. I classify him as a ‘baseball player.’”

It’s that kind of situational awareness and long-term planning that has the Rockies on track to win 63 games, according to our Playoff Odds. The Guardians may not look like a playoff team right now despite reaching the ALCS last year — they’re forecast for just 79 wins — but they obtained the better player in this swap, one who can further their efforts to contend.