RosterResource Chat – 1/10/25

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the RosterResource Live Chat! A few things before we get started …

•Our Opening Day Roster Tracker is now live … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/opening-day-tracker

•Roki Sasaki, Hyeseong Kim, and Tomoyuki Sugano are now in our databases with Steamer projections … https://www.fangraphs.com/players/roki-sasaki/sa3025686/stats?position…

Let’s get started.

Joe: If you’re the A’s (or another team in need of rotation help), who would you rater acquire via trade, Stroman or T. Walker, and why?

Jon Becker: Definitely Stroman. He was perfectly good last year, and even though he fell down the Yankees’ depth chart he’d probably be the SP3 for the A’s. Not sure if Walker’s velocity will ever come back.

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Are the Royals really going to try to contend again with two 2B, no 3B, no DH, and no OFs except a platoon of CF defensive specialists?

Jason Martinez: Their pitching staff is probably good enough to carry them even if their offense is just the Bobby Witt Jr. show. At this point, I’d assume they’re not done trying to improve the lineup. But maybe they just really believe that one of Massey/India can play mutliple positions and that guys like Melendez/Isbel/Garcia can improve at the plate. Bottom half of the lineup looks not very scary.

Jon Becker: They’re basically running back last year’s roster save for the India-for-Singer swap, and that’s certainly not without risk since they got tough-to-repeat results from Witt and Lugo.

Seattle_54percenters: Royals still need another bat…who is realistic for them?

Jon Becker: And on that note, I think Profar would make a lot of sense for them. Tough to be a power bat in that ballpark and him being solid all-around means he can still be good even with a power downtick. Only concern would be his defense in that big outfield.

Rayball10: How do you guys project David Hamilton’s PT in Boston?

Jason Martinez: 2B is up for grabs so the current playing time projection shows more of a split between Hamilton, Kristian Campbell, and Vaughn Grissom … https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/red-sox

Those projections can change depending on how things are going in the spring or if the team gives any indication of where things are headed. Campbell might just win the job early in the season (or by Opening Day) and never relinquish it. Hamilton showed enough last season that he could go into spring training as the favorite (assuming they don’t add another player to be their starting 2B) and then how long he holds the job will be based on his performance. But seems like it’s only a matter of time before Campbell is in Boston.

$105M: Are the A’s the only team needing a payroll of $105M this year?  There are other teams below $105M, do they have to reach it too?  Why just the A’s?  Thanks.

Jon Becker: There’s been a little bit of a misconception here, and this question is a good chance for me to explain this! The A’s don’t have to have a payroll of $105M, but if they don’t, the burden of proof in a grievance shifts from the MLBPA to them — meaning the A’s have to defend themselves rather than the MLBPA having to operate as if they’ll be presumed innocent. But grievances take years, so there’s no immediate punishment that happens if they aren’t at $105M. I know the Marlins also will be receiving the same revenue sharing money that the A’s will, unclear which other teams are also set to.

Or Elvis: When we say a prospect had a cup of coffee in the majors, I think Orelvis’s stat line applies. He was raking for awhile there in the minors before his suspension. What are you hearing on him, and any reason to think he could break camp with the team?

Jason Martinez: If the Jays go into spring training with Ernie Clement as the projected starter at 3B and don’t bring in any competition, that would tell me that they really believe in Orelvis making an impact at some point in 2025. Clement is a perfectly fine stop-gap. I don’t think they’ll stand pat, though, so Orelvis’ 2025 will be all about bouncing back and getting ready to take over at 2B or 3B in 2026. Or maybe by the trade deadline.

David Stearns: What do you see the Mets doing the rest of the offseason other than resigning Pete?

Jon Becker: If we presuppose they bring Alonso back (not a given but that’s certainly what I think is likeliest), I think they could use another starting-caliber hitter as Marte/McNeil insurance, preferably someone who can play both INF and OF. Not any great options fitting the bill on the FA market but Willi Castro comes to mind as a plausible trade option with the Twins wanting to cut payroll.

BC26: Do you really buy NYY going with Cabrera/LeMahieu at 3B on Opening Day?

Jason Martinez: I do not. Not many 3B options if they don’t trade for Arenado — thus, the Paul DeJong rumor from yesterday — but they could just leave Jazz at 3B and add one of the 2B options (Brendan Rodgers, Jose Iglesias, Jorge Polanco, Ha-Seong Kim, Luis Arraez trade?)

Mr. Burrito: Could you see D. Rushing carving out a role with 350 ABs as a sometime catcher, sometime COF? I love my Dodgers, and I’m thrilled that their roster is borderline over-stuffed. But Rushing’s OBP+POWER profile feels essential on a team with two power bats age 33 or older. And even if he isn’t essential this year I think it might be important for the Dodgers to groom Rushing and Pages and others to take on key roles as Muncy, Freeman start to age out. Thoughts?

Jon Becker: Definitely possible, though I think they view him as more of an outfielder than a catcher at this point. It would take an injury to get him playing time but I’d think he’d be one of the first call-ups in the event of one, maybe only behind whichever of Outman/Pages doesn’t get the last roster spot (assuming Chris Taylor sticks around). I haven’t seen how the Dodgers will handle Ohtani’s workload when he’s back to pitching, but (and I’m just speculating) they could go back to his early-Angels schedule of not hitting before and after (or maybe just one or the other, now) his start days.

twins: why is royce lewis the projected 6th hitter, were they doing that in 2024?

Jason Martinez: Only one time in 2024 but they rarely had the big 3 (Lewis/Correa/Buxton) in the lineup together and Lewis was also really bad in the 2nd half (74 wRC+). And Larnach/Wallner give them a pair of lefty bats that were both very good last season. A lot can change, of course, but that’s just where I landed after looking over everything at the beginning of the offseason.

Peter: Hi Folks! There’s been some debate in MN Twins world over the state of the budget. It was reported in the Star Tribune yesterday that after finalizing all the arbitration eligible players, the Twins payroll sits at $122.1, which with minimum salary players would bring it to $130. However, Roster Resource has it at $140. Bref says $130. This is pretty critical, because the FO has said the salary must be $130, so being $140 would mean needing to trade just to reach the desired budget. Can you all explain where the discrepancy is coming from and what might explain the differing projections?

Jon Becker: I’ll take a closer look after we’re done chatting here, but it looks like B-Ref only includes enough pre-arbitration players to fill a 26-man roster, rather than baking in time for injuries, which we do (seven additional pre-arb players per year as placeholders, essentially). That’s not the entirety of the $10M difference but that’s a big chunk of it right there. Re: the Twins themselves, I’ll be curious to see based on the rest of their offseason if that $130M is a hard number or if there’s some wiggle room.

Yuniesky Betancourt: Brewers 3B. Best (reasonable) options? Moncada, DeJong, internal?

Jason Martinez: Moncada would be interesting, but not sure he’ll even be cheap enough for the Brewers. I’m guessing he can still get around 1-yr, $8MM on a prove-it deal. They seemed to really like Oliver Dunn last season so not sure if he’s fallen off their radar or if they still believe in him. I think there’s at least a decent chance that Caleb Durbin plays 2B, Ortiz stays at 3B, and Turang moves to SS.

Not sure how close their two 3B prospects are to the majors. Brock Wilken struggled in AA last season. Mike Boeve tore it up in AA in a smaller sample. Luke Adams was very good in Hi-A

Dan H: Thanks so much for having these chats! With Burnes off the board and a Sasaki signing extremely unlikely, what realistic moves do you see the Giants doing that could make them more than a fringe contender for the last wildcard spot? I’d love to see them trade for someone like Luis Roberts for upside or Brandon Lowe/Yandy Diaz for some stability, but it’s hard to know what they can do when what they really need are stars.

Jon Becker: They’re in a really tough spot because their farm system isn’t great (Eldridge is the one guy with big trade value, and I think they’re correct to rebuff any attempts to pry him away), but the FA market is really running dry on anything even approaching star-level talent. I think Flaherty makes a lot of sense even with Verlander; not sure you can trust Ray and Hicks to give you more than 45 starts combined, and even that number might be pushing it.

Guest: Hi Jason, how confident are you on the 5th starters (SP). Like how do you arrive at that conclusion between the 5th and 6th pitcher battles.

Jason Martinez: Each situation is unique (feel free to ask about a particular team) but most teams aren’t taking chances with their rotation by leaving 1-2 spots up for grabs. Those competitions will happen because of injuries. Another important question these days will be how often a team uses a spot-starter or bullpen game. I will list some teams with 6 starters and a lot of teams will have 5 starters with an obvious spot-starter candidate in the bullpen.

drplantwrench: looking at the available FA’s and their ZiPS i am 100% convinced that the Angels should be tripping over themselves to target HSK. am i crazy?

Jon Becker: They’d have to rearrange some things once Kim’s shoulder is healthy (and Neto’s, for that matter), but I don’t think this is crazy! If Kim’s willing to play second (I could totally understand if he’s not, since he’s a great shortstop) they could slide Rengifo to third and Rendon to the bench. Their defense is weak at a lot of different spots, especially if Soler will be playing some outfield, so having another great glove would help them a lot.

Tim: What would a reasonable expectation for Del Castillo PT with Moreno still the starter? If he gets AB’s at 1B or DH, does that cement rosterability in a 16t dynasty?

Jason Martinez: Best-case (barring an injury to Moreno) would be that he wins the backup catcher job and the Dbacks find some at-bats for him as the DH. Might take another injury to open some of those DH at-bats — Pavin Smith is currently expected to get a majority of those — but I’d pencil him in for around 300 PAs. The bat looks legit. Moreno seems like he’d get 75% of starts when healthy, which limits Del Castillo’s chances behind the plate. Also why he could return to AAA if there aren’t a lot of DH at-bats early on.

Jack: What will the Phillies outfield setup look like come opening day (platoons, etc)? I’m still not sure I understand the Kepler signing

Jon Becker: Everyone’s reaction when he signed was “oh they must be trading Castellanos now, right???” and while they’d surely love to, I’m not sure they will since it’s clear they didn’t have something lined up right when Kepler signed. Sounds like it’ll be Kepler in left (Dombrowski said he’ll start against lefties, but we’ll see about that), Marsh in center, Castellanos in right. Weston Wilson and Johan Rojas will play a lot against lefties and Rojas should make a lot of late-in-game appearances to get Castellanos off the field.

Bucs outfield: Will Pittsburgh sign Grichuk AND Verdugo? If no, which is more likely?

Jason Martinez: Seems like a good fit for both and I think probably within the Pirates’ budget. Grichuk might want to sign with a better team as a 4th OF/platoon vs LHP but it might also be fun to play in Pittsburgh for half-season and then get traded to a contender.

jaygray007: thinking about the corner outfield market.  Who comes to mind to you as “teams who are trying to win” and “still needs a starting corner outfielder” (and also seems to have some money left)?   I have a “feeling” that there are more players than obvious jobs open, but i’m not sure and that’s why im asking you 🙂

Jon Becker: Some of these teams are running on tight budgets, but the Jays, Royals, Astros, Braves, Pirates, and Padres all could use another COF for sure.

TRANE: any chance we see Nolan Gorman traded? not sure what the Cards on doing on the whole this offseason

Jason Martinez: Sounds like they’re trying their hardest to trade Arenado, which I assume would open 3B for Gorman. Now, if they determined that Arenado was staying put, I’m sure they’d consider it. But, even with 4 years of control, it might not be worth it if his trade value has decreased too much after his poor 2024. He does have minor league options so maybe they’d let him rake in AAA before shopping him.

AL Central Casting: The Twins now have 4 catchers on their 40-man (5 if you count Gasper). Do you see them trading anyone, and if so, who? Cartaya isn’t ready and Carmago seems like the depth guy behind Jeffers and Vazquez, but not so sure they like him enough to be part of their catching time-share if they trade one of the MLB guys.

Jon Becker: Vázquez would be the obvious guy to move since he’s due to make $10M (they’d have to cover some of it to make a trade work). I agree that Cartaya and Camargo might not be as ideal as a veteran like Vázquez as the backup, but if cutting salary is the primary goal, I think they’d rather just roll with one of the two pre-arbitration guys rather than spend a few million on a different backup.

jaygray007: I truly truly promise to never ask an annoying question like this again, but can you please consider putting IKF low in the Pirates’ lineup and putting Horwitz or McCutchen or anyone else at leadoff lol?  I know you have your reasons for having it how it is, but the aesthetic would just feel so much better to me as a Pirate fan.  Hes just such a below average hitter.

Jason Martinez: One more addition to their lineup and I’d move him down to 7th-ish. He was their leadoff man for the last 2 months of the season and Cutch was the cleanup hitter for the last month. Probably more about the quality of his at-bats rather than the result. But, I agree, it is not aesthetically pleasing with IKF at the top of the lineup.

Ham Fighter: Cal Raleigh, Adley Rutschman, and William Contreras were born like 14 months apart, each have 13 point something WAR over the last three years, and are all slated to hit FA at the same time. You see any of them extending early (Raleigh is the only Boras guy) or are they all hoping to become the first $200M catcher in free agency?

Jon Becker: Just playing the odds here, but I’ll guess that at least one of them does, sure. Catchers’ greater injury risk makes locking in an extension, even if they’re potentially leaving money on the table, appealing to them, more so than it is for other position players. But the closer they get to FA the less likely they are.

John B: Do you think the number of arm injuries to the Dodgers young SP will affect Sasaki’s decision?

Jason Martinez: It’s a great question and, as a Padres fan, I hope that’s the case. But, unfortunately, I think torn elbow ligaments are just part of a pitcher unlocking the best version of themselves. And I don’t know if it matters because it’s happening to some extent with every team. Dodgers were an extreme case, at least in 2024, but I don’t know if any pitcher would think they’re more likely to get injured because of the way that the Dodgers do things.

Chris: Gut feeling, Yanks make an IF addn or go with what they have?

wheelhouse: under-the-radar candidate for yankees’ 3B (or 2B)? would the pirates move ke’bryan hayes to get out of that commitment, and is he fixable?

Jon Becker: I would be very surprised if they just stuck with what they have, and to answer the second question, not sure about Hayes for them (as much as I love his defense I’m just not sure he’ll ever lift the ball enough). Jose Iglesias makes sense as a guy who could bounce around between 2B/3B/a little SS, we haven’t heard much at all on him this winter.

Claxon: Is Sasaki holding up the SP market for the week? It seems like what I’m seeing.

Jason Martinez: Yep, and not only the SP market. For teams with a limited budget (SD), whether they sign Sasaki or not will make a huge difference in how they fill out their roster. Signing Sasaki allows them to put whatever $ they have to spend towards other areas. And if they don’t get Sasaki, they likely have to spend $ on a SP. And for teams that can afford someone like Jack Flaherty, they’re probably holding off in case they get Sasaki for almost nothing. And then they’d have some payroll flexibility to add to other parts of their roster.

Ace: What on earth do the Blue Jays do?

Jon Becker: Someone has to take their money at some point, right? Not sure it’ll be Alonso, Santander, or Bregman, but maybe they bring Pivetta back home to Canada and add someone like Profar?

Guest: When do you think we will see Colby Thomas for the Athletics?  Seems that Seth Brown is his competition. Is it better than a 50% chance that he starts on the roster?

Jason Martinez: As things stand, I would say that’s the one spot in the lineup that’s pretty much up for grabs in the spring. And Thomas and Denzel Clarke would be in the mix to compete with Brown. But there’s still a long way to go. Very likely to be at least one more addition before spring training.

Twins: Any chance the Twins trade Larnach?

Jon Becker: Don’t think so. He’s cheap ($2.1M) and unless they want to be really aggressive and promote Emmanuel Rodriguez, anything they do to replace him would cost more.

Billy: Hi guys! What do you think Arizona ends up doing with their DH spot? Pavin Smith had a nice year last year but he’s not exactly a name that strikes fear, and it seems like they could probably use one more guy like that

Jason Martinez: Small sample but he was very good last season (.896 OPS in 158 PA) and Dbacks will likely want to see if it carries over if given regular playing time (at least vs RHP). Also, they probably want to leave open the possibility for Adrian Del Castillo and Jordan Lawlar to earn some at-bats. Lawlar (former top prospect) wouldn’t necessarily be the DH, but he could bounce around the infield (2B/3B/SS) with Ketel Marte and Eugenio Suarez getting off their feet occasionally.

J: What SP do you think makes sense for the Cubs to target via either trade or FA?

Jon Becker: Flaherty’s the big name in FA and wouldn’t cost a draft pick, though not sure the Cubs want to spend probably $20M+ per year over multiple years. In trade, Dylan Cease is the top option by far, but there’s also Luis Castillo and one of the Diamondbacks’ extra guys (most likely Montgomery).

Sanford: Do you realistically think Orioles will platoon Holliday, or are you just hedging? If he’s still not ready for the full-time job, I’d imagine they’d just send him down again rather than platoon him

Jason Martinez: The most important thing will be to build up his confidence so he doesn’t get sent back to AAA again. Keeping him away from tough LHP (and maybe all LHP for a while) will be part of that. He’s not the type of player to need a platoon once he settles in. I just think they’ll be very careful about when they decide that he’s an everyday player.

Hugh: If the Angels finally realize they need to tear-down, what do you think they could reasonably get for Trout? Is he just a $$ dump at this point?

Jon Becker: Sad to say it, but I think he’d just be a money dump at his age and with his injury history. Worth noting he has a full no-trade and has never shown any indication whatsoever of waiving it, too.

Phil: I keep hearing Boston is in on Bregman- How does that work? They’re not going to have Bregman play 2B & block Campbell are they? Devers has to move to 1B, right? Then they trade/DG Casas?

Jason Martinez: Bregman might be open to playing 2B for 1-2 seasons before Devers moves to 1B. But it’s more likely that Devers moves to 1B, Casas moves to DH, and Yoshida (plus $) gets traded.

The Oberamtmann: I know Waldo, Peraza, and DJLM are all uninspiring options, but am I wrong to be frustrated that the Yankees are checking in on players like de Jong? Like, it is too much to ask that, if the tires you’re kicking are not so great, maybe you commit to the tires you have at home?

Jon Becker: Checking in on players is just part of the job — they’ve probably at least reached out on dozens of free agents, just like every team has. Wouldn’t read too much into it unless a deal actually happens, in which case I’d agree with you that they ought to be aiming higher.

Weird1@Portland: Will Dubon be the HOU 3B starter?

Jason Martinez: Isaac Paredes is their 3B and Dubon should continue to be a super-utilityman. The Astros have at least one hole to fill in the OF so Dubon could be in the mix for regular playing time out there if they don’t bring in another OF or two.

Freeman, freeland, who gives a hoot: what do you think are the chances Alex Freeland gets the call and +200 PAs this year

Jon Becker: Pretty low, since that’s about two months of regular playing time, and he’d have to do better than he did at Triple-A last year to really force the issue. He’s behind Betts and Rojas on the SS depth chart and Taylor and Kim are capable of playing there too.

Pumpsie: Thank-you so much for all your work on the Depth Charts/Payroll! With the arb deadline yesterday, I’m wondering if on the Payroll tab you could move the final-year arb guys (Guerrero, Tucker, etc) up into the Guaranteed section once they’ve gone through arb for the last time. I’m sure you’ve weighed pros and cons; if I had a vote, I’d vote to have those guys in the upper section.

Jason Martinez: I believe I’ve done this in the past, at least as we get closer to the trade deadline. Feel free to remind me around May if it hasn’t happened.

Ham Fighter: I was kind of confused by the Brewers leaving Shane Smith unprotected in the Rule 5 so they could take Connor Thomas instead. When it comes to the Brewers and fringe pitching moves do I just need to trust the process?

Jon Becker: I don’t love to issue blanket benefit-of-the-doubt to any teams, but the Brewers have really been right up there at or towards the top with making the right calls. They could also keep Thomas and end up getting Smith back if the White Sox return him anyway.

comish4lif: Do you expect the Nats to address the gaping abyss that is their bullpen?

Jason Martinez: For sure. With the reliever market at a standstill (probably waiting on Tanner Scott and Jeff Hoffman), it’s tough to know if they’ll be in on any of the big names to become their closer … Kenley, Yates, Robertson, Estevez. Or if they go the cheaper route (Sewald, Leclerc). Or maybe they’ll be the latest team to give Kimbrel a chance.

TRANE: what % of MLB games do you guys at least catch apart of? 10% has to be elite?

Jon Becker: This is a perfect question to end on as we wrap up here! I watch four games at once all season long and will switch as games end or are blowouts, so I think I watch at least a few pitches of… 65% of games maybe? 75%? It feels crazy even typing out that high a number and now I want to track this season, haha.

Jason Martinez: I watch a majority of Padres games, including around 40-50 in person at Petco Park. And then a lot of highlights and I try to catch a MiLB game as often as possible. A lot of baseball but, as you can tell, we do really like baseball.

Jason Martinez: Thanks for joining us! We’ll be back next Friday at the same time. As always, feel free to send over a question on one of the social media sites if we didn’t get to it here.