RosterResource Chat – 4/11/25

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the RosterResource Live Chat and Happy Chase Meidroth Day to those who celebrate a guy who has 113 BB and 76 K in his Triple-A career. He should be hitting 1 or 2 in the White Sox lineup for the rest of the season.

And here we go …

Jon Becker: BTW, wrote about payrolls this week if you’ve got any questions related to that! But I’ll take the first question from what we’ve got so far… https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2025-payrolls-and-beyond/

TW: What’ll happen to the Tigers’ rotation when Alex Cobb comes back from injury if none of other starting five are injured by then? Potential six-man rotation?

Jon Becker: Jobe getting sent down is the most straightforward option, and he’ll have a few starts (at least) to prove he’s making improvements but right now it’s completely justifiable. 18 pitches per inning is a lot and a 1:1 BB:K ratio isn’t sustainable.

Jason Martinez: I also think they have something like 32 games in 35 days starting mid-May (around when Cobb could return) so a 6-man could work for a bit. You can see our schedule grid here …

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/schedule-grid

Bullock: Is Houston where mid-30s first baseman go to die?

Jason Martinez: One of the problems with mid-30’s guys with a strong track record is that they don’t like to go on rehab assignments. He probably needed one after missing most of spring training. And Walker has a track record of posting just about every day so I’m sure he’s not an easy guy to convince to miss time. I think he’ll heat up soon.

Matt: Seems the skuttlebut is that Festa was already expected to come up on Friday and Zebby will come up to fill Lopez’s roster spot. Any idea how that shakes out in the near term? 6-man rotation?

Jon Becker: It’s possible that Festa’s just a spot start to give everyone an extra day of rest, and then Zebby will actually take López’s spot in the rotation. But if Festa looks good today I could absolutely see them going to a six-man, though they’re off both Thursday and the following Monday so that might end up being too much rest.

Fish Bait: I read somewhere that Matt Mervis said he went back his old swing.  Do metrics or eye test indicate post-hype Mervis may take the 1B job and run with it?

Jason Martinez: Can’t say much about the eye test since I haven’t seen him much. But post-hype guys can be fun. We forget why he seemed like a can’t miss prospect (correction on the use of “can’t miss prospect”: in roster terms, Mervis was someone who had nothing left to prove in the minors and his MLB opportunity was imminent). Crushing the ball at every level and then AFL. Some guys just struggle when they arrive in the big leagues and then lose confidence. Then they try to change things up. And get buried on the depth chart. Sometimes they just need a change of scenery and some runway to get everyday at-bats. It’s a good situation for him in Miami.

PokeyReese: Is the A’s offense… underrated? Seems like a couple of good young bats

Jon Becker: I like their offense a lot, especially seeing how Sutter Health Park has played in the early going. I’m curious to see when Kurtz comes up and how they have to reshuffle the defensive alignment, whether it’s Soderstrom catching more or Rooker playing the OF, which he hasn’t done in the regular season since early last year. And they’ll have Gelof coming back within the next month-ish!

Ozzie: Do the Cubs have Cade Horton debut as a reliever this year and look to work him into the rotation next season?

Jason Martinez: I think the main goal is to build him up as a starting pitcher in 2025. He only pitched 34 innings last season. So maybe late season, after he’s made 20-22 starts in AAA, there’s an opportunity to pitch out of the ‘pen. But depending on the severity of Justin Steele’s elbow injury (should know more soon), they might need him starting games in the majors at some point.

Darren: What is the point of Dezenzo on the Astros if they’re never going to play him? Is there any ray of light into him getting more PT?

Jon Becker: The one lane for him is Cam Smith continuing to struggle and more RF time opening up, or I guess getting some reps at 2B so he can fill in there as needed. All the other positions are pretty well spoken for, which makes it tough for a young guy to not just rot on the bench. But as the dog days of summer hit there’ll be more mixing and matching than there has been; a lot of teams have that 13th position player they’re using only sparingly.

Dos Muncys: What do you think about McKinstry sticking in the lineup?

Jason Martinez: It’s fine for now. Professional hitter who can get hot for a few weeks as evidenced by his .999 OPS over 70 PA last August. Tigers value him as a super-utilityman but I think they’re happy with letting him play regularly for stretches. And he’s been really good so far.

Ozzie: Is Caglianone getting any work in the OF? He would be a huge upgrade at the plate over MJ Melendez.

Jon Becker: Not in games yet, but I saw in the tail end of spring training that the plan was to get him some time out there to accelerate the timeline. That said, it’s easy enough to just put India in LF, Caglianone at DH, and use both Melendez and Renfroe less.

question man: the ANGELS are GOOD!!!!

Jason Martinez: My pick to win the AL West in our FanGraphs Staff Predictions! Read the comments.  … https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-fangraphs-2025-staff-predictions/

Not sure it will hold up, especially if Ben Joyce isn’t healthy for the entire season, but I thought there was a decent chance they could surprise some people. Mike Trout staying healthy is a big part of it. We’ll see.

Max Muncy III: Do you see Kochanowicz sticking in the rotashe?

Jon Becker: I do, especially since Detmers’ relief appearances have been pretty short, so you can’t just stick him back in the rotation on a whim. Kochanowicz isn’t going to wow anyone but he’s got a pretty high floor since he’ll just get a bunch of contact and early outs and should rack up the innings when the BABIP gods are with him.

DR: Does Noelvi Marte get a shot to take over for Candelario or is he just going to be an extra man until McLain is back

Jason Martinez: He sat on the bench in the first 2 games since his call-up (vs RHP), so I don’t think the Reds had that in mind. And nobody has hit on the team so I think everybody has an opportunity to earn or lose more playing time. Not necessarily Candelario. We’ll see if Marte is in there the next 2 games when they face a LHP (Falter, Heaney).

Bullock: With Vlad’s contract, Toronto has to be pretty committed to trying to win now.  But they look like an obvious rebuild to me (average team that is old, expensive, lacking impact prospects).  If they don’t rebuild, I can see them becoming the Angels trying to never have a down year with Trout and thus always having a down year.  What do you think?

Jon Becker: I don’t see the Jays as being quite Angels-level “let’s try to contend every year by papering over every problem we have with veteran free agents” but yes, they’ve kinda backed themselves into a corner of always contending that I’m not sure how well-equipped they are to handle. But that said, enough interesting young guys already up (Roden, Wagner) and their farm isn’t nearly as bad as the Angels’ has been in recent years. Four prospects with a 50 FV or higher, the Angels have two right now.

Bigstrunso: I think Ian Seymour is ready for MLB. If he dominates again today, is he still dependent on an injury to be called up? Or should TB consider a six man rotation?

Jason Martinez: I can see a temporary 6-man at some point and either Seymour or Joe Boyle getting the call. Both have been impressive. Boyle still walks too many batters, though, so that could work in Seymour’s favor (1 BB, 15 K).

Scott: Luxury tax computation question. Let’s say a deal is $30M over 2 years with a club option for a 3rd year at $15M and a $2M buyout. I understand the first two years get calculated as $16M each. But if the team picks up the option, is that third year charged as the $13M incremental or the original $15M?

Jon Becker: The third year would be charged as the $13M incremental, because the team was overcharged for the first two years (should have been $15M instead of $16M per year, since it included the buyout they didn’t end up paying); they’d get a credit on that third year for the $2M unpaid buyout.

Matt: Chandler Simpson was apparently “not an option” to get the call. You seeing him as an option at *some* point this year?

Jason Martinez: Yeah, I’ve always thought he would be a late-season call-up. Had never played in AAA and I think that type of hitter can struggle in the majors just because the defense is so much better. He doesn’t walk a lot so he relies on spraying the ball around and beating out infield singles. Fingers crossed that he is a successful big leaguer because those super fast guys are fun. Victor Scott II looks much better in his 2nd year so that’s a good sign.

Dos Muncys: Do you see Curtis Mead carving out a role that isn’t just vs lefties?

Jon Becker: If he hits lefties, he’ll play more against righties too, at least get the chance to prove he can hit them. But so far he’s not even hitting lefties, and Aranda mashing against righties doesn’t help Mead’s case for getting into the lineup against same-sided pitching.

Chris: Who do you think ends up with most saves in Pittsburgh? Santana seems to have it now but think Lawrence might be a play. Also see Ashcraft as dark horse, thoughts?

Jason Martinez: My guess is Bednar. He’s getting a chance to regroup and work on some things in AAA. They really overused him the last couple seasons. Hopefully, he’s healthy and can rebound.

Lawrence looks a lot better. Not sure they’d trust him over Santana yet.

Guest: this may not be your purview, but is there any chance of 2026 opening day seeing Walcott in the TEX lineup? (Eric hasn’t seemed interested in this question, which is fine and just makes me think it’s a stupid question lol)

Jon Becker: Sure, I don’t see why not. Jung can’t seem to stay healthy so 3B could be wide open, and if he mashes this year and comes into Spring looking good, he could earn that spot.

Johnny5Alive: Faucher was projected as the lead candidate for Marlins saves all off-season (although admittedly likely a committee) but he’s just been used in middle relief. Is that what he is at this point?

Jason Martinez: Based on how things ended in 2024, he was the leading candidate and no reason to think otherwise. But he was a bit shaky in spring training and then had a few shaky outings before the Marlins even had a save situation. All while Bender looked really good. So it’s a case where he didn’t have a long leash because he doesn’t have a long track record of success. I think he’ll get another opportunity. But probably needs to have a few good outings before he’s back in a higher-leverage role.

Paul: Prospect clutching cost the Orioles their best two offseason pitching options in Cease and Crochett. Assuming they finally relent and make a big move by the deadline, who is their best target at this point?

Jon Becker: The Mariners deciding to sell and making any or all of their SP available in trade would shake up the market for a bunch of teams, not just the Orioles, though if I had to pick one as likeliest it’d certainly be Castillo since he’s expensive. Their stance with him in the offseason was “we’ll only trade him if it makes our team better” but I could absolutely see that shifting to “we’ll trade him because it makes our team cheaper.”

johnnyheller: Thoughts on Oscar Gonzales in SD? (I had hoped they would promote Ornelas but…) And is Pages heating up in LA?

Jason Martinez: He’s interesting at least. Hits the ball hard. Not sure he’d be very good if they need him to play everyday. If Tatis goes on the IL, I’d expect Tirso to get the call and share time with Oscar. I’d rather they had re-signed David Peralta, though. He was amazing during the 2 months that Tatis was out last season. No idea why he’s unsigned.  

Pages needs to heat up because Hyeseong Kim looks good in AAA and could get the call to play 2B (Edman to CF) at some point.

Lord Thunder: How much of a leash does Ronell Blanco have in the Astros’ rotation?

Jon Becker: For now, plenty, and I’m never one to read into a couple bad starts. I don’t think his job is much less secure than it would be if he had two scoreless starts.  He should keep his spot until, at minimum, Arrighetti and McCullers come back.

Guest: Easton Lucas???

Jason Martinez: Dude hadn’t been a starter since 2019 when he was at short-season Batavia. He was a starter at Pepperdine but that’s a long time. I guess he didn’t forget how to do it. One of the top 5 stories in MLB so far.

Appa Yip Yip: When Daulton Varsho is back who goes down, Nathan Lukes or Myles Straw?

Jon Becker: My guess would be Lukes. It’s not doing him any good to be on the bench most of the time and he’d play even less with Varsho on the roster. Straw’s a veteran and you’re not chasing upside with him, Lukes needs to get playing time in Buffalo to stay fresh.

Rockie Mountain HIgh: Have you heard anything on when Thairo Estrada will be back & when he is, what % of playing time do you think he gets?

Jason Martinez: Sounds like early-to-mid May and I’d expect him to play at least 80% of the time. Rockies seem to love him. Kyle Farmer is doing a great job but best in a part-time role.

Dos Muncys: How worried should we be about Rocker?

Jon Becker: Similar answer to what I gave about Blanco: not much. If he has a few more starts where he looks like a contact manager rather than a bat-misser, sure, but I don’t get swayed much by a couple weird outings.

Matt: Any expectations of Hagen Smith coming up this season? I know the Sox are an enigma, but seems like he could probably benefit from experience while it doesn’t you know…matter for the Sox

Jason Martinez: Don’t think so. White Sox are going to be very careful with their top prospects and making sure they’re in the majors during the majority of their competitive window. And I hope they believe that could start next season. Noah Schultz has an outside chance of getting the call this season. I’d guess Smith and Grant Taylor are more likely for 2026.

JF: Who is likely to have a better 2025 season, Campbell of Boston or Paris of LA?

Jon Becker: Paris is another top-five story in the league and it’s great that he’s not just performing super well but that there’s actually a clear reason as to why (super drastic stance and swing changes), but I’ll still go with Campbell and his prospect pedigree. Paris also might not have a clear everyday spot when everyone is healthy, though it’s the Angels we’re talking about so that’s never the case.

Buff: Brewers need pitchers. How soon do you think they call Logan Henderson up? What does he need to do to get the call?

Jason Martinez: Henderson seemed like a legit option when they first needed a No. 5 SP but they opted for Rodriguez/Alexander/Patrick. And now Quinn Priester has arrived. Quintana should be back soon (likely today). Tobias Myers is close. And Woodruff should be back in May. So Henderson’s window has likely closed for now.

Ozzie: Neto has been doing great in his rehab assignment. Why are the Angels not calling him up yet? A team with playoff aspirations should not be giving any starts to Tim Anderson.

Jon Becker: It’ll be soon, but he’s still got boxes to check. Hasn’t played shortstop on back-to-back days, which is big. So much of his value comes from his defense and ability to hold up at short every day, and you don’t want to rush that.

Snake Bit: Need saves, have AJ Puk.  Would it be reasonable that with Puk/Martinez closer share, if D’back get 40 saves its Puk 15/Martinez 20 & 5 saves across rest?

Jason Martinez: That’s a pretty realistic projection. I’ve had it pretty close with Puk slightly higher. But I think there will be many occasions when Puk is brought into the game in the 7th/8th for an important lefty-lefty match-up. So I’d lean Martinez a bit more now (55%/45%).

Ozzie: Chase Burns at High A+? Really? How many starts are the Reds going to waste keeping him in the minors?

Jon Becker: I get your frustration, he’s one of their five best starters based on pure talent for sure. But he also threw 100 innings in college last year and then didn’t make his pro debut until this year, whereas Skenes had 122 innings and then a few in the minors. So they’re going to slow play him a bit but I don’t think a debut in August/September is out of the question.

Brablc: Who’s your next Schwellenbach, who wasn’t on a ton of prospect lists (mainly due to injury) but get called up and never looks back?

Jason Martinez: A few candidates but I’ll point out that my Minor League Power Rankings Leaderboard is a great resource for identifying up-and-coming minor leaguers based on performance/age/level …

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/minor-league-power-rankings?…

With that said, JT Ginn is near the top of the list and looks like he’ll get a shot soon. Fell off the radar a bit, but could be really good. Parker Messick (CLE) and Noah Cameron (KCR) also come to mind.

Dos Muncys: Is G Arias a dead man walking?

Jon Becker: Yeah, I kinda think this is just who he’s always gonna be, he’ll swing at everything and run into some homers, and he’ll be solid defensively, but that’s about it. Brito’s coming for his job soon.

CWS Closer: Who gets the most saves on Chicago’s south side?

Jason Martinez: Jordan Leasure will lead the team with 4.

Ozzie: Vidal Brujan is beginning his rehab assignment. Does this mean the end is near for Gage Workman’s time as a Chicago Cub?

Jon Becker: It’s gonna be between Bruján and Workman for one spot. Counsell has so rarely used Workman that I’d assume the same would apply to Bruján, though, and the org might see more longer-term value in Workman and be fine with just stashing him on the roster.

Trent Grisham: Trent started 5 of the last 6, 3 of those vs. lefties. Just Cody being sick, or will he carve out multiple days a week?

Jason Martinez: He’s super streaky so they should play him as much as possible until he cools off. Then stick with 1-2 starts per week and late-inning defense. He’s been around a long time so I’m not sure he’s finally unlocked something and ready to be a consistent performer.

Tip of the Cap: Thanks for taking the time do the chats.  Always informative & useful.

Jason Martinez: No problem. We take in a lot of information due to the nature of our job and it’s nice to have an outlet to share what we’ve learned with fellow roster geeks.

Jason Martinez: That will do it for today. Back again next Friday. Have a great weekend!