Royals’ Flawed Off-Season Continues
Surprisingly, over the last few weeks, Dayton Moore was on quite the hot streak. Within the span of four days, the Kansas City Royals made the Best Free Agent Signing Of The Winter, and gained $12 million after Gil Meche abruptly retired. The run of good fortune ended Thursday, as the Royals signed Pedro Feliz to a minor league contract. While it’s no guarantee that Feliz will make the team, this signing continues some of the head-scratching decisions made by the Royals this off-season.
Feliz enters a battle with Mike Aviles and Wilson Betemit at third base. Betemit, who seems to be a perennial breakout candidate every year, provides value with the bat, but he has posted a negative UZR at third base the last five seasons. Aviles’ high contact/low walk approach, meanwhile, leaves him susceptible to BABIP fluctuation. Aviles doesn’t walk much, so a drop in his average would have a huge effect on his value to the Royals. That leaves Feliz, who is coming off his worst season in the majors. Always a strong defender, Feliz posted a -5.8 UZR at third base last season. The low number could be an aberration, but for a 35-year-old it could signal the end of the road. Feliz’s value is tied up in his defense (he posted a laughable 3.0 BB% last season), so if he’s really lost a step in the field, he might not make this team.
The battle for third base may seem troublesome, but it highlights a trend in the Royals off-season transactions. An astounding amount of the Royals acquisitions this off-season have no idea how to take a walk.
This particular problem began when the Royals comically signed Jeff Francoeur in December. As Matt Klaassen explained at the time, Francoeur was the ideal Dayton Moore acquisition. His connection to the Braves, combined with his career 4.9 BB%, made Francoeur an attractive commodity for Moore. Despite all the criticism Moore received for the move, he continued to employ his “strategy” during the remainder of the off-season.
Both Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain, who were acquired in the Zach Greinke trade, fit in with the low-OBP hitters. Cain, who posted nine walks in 158 plate appearances, needed a BABIP of .370 to post a decent on-base percentage last season. That number should regress this season, and how much it regresses will play a major role in how much value he adds to the Royals next season.
Escobar experienced the worst case scenario for a high contact/low walk player last season. Due to poor luck, Escobar’s BABIP plummeted, resulting in both a low average and on-base percentage. Since almost all of Escobar’s offensive value is tied to his average, he had to rely on his strong defense in order to consider his season successful.
The issue with many of these players (Escobar, Cain, and Aviles) is that too much of their value is tied up in their high-contact approach at the plate. When their hits are falling, as Cain experienced last season, their plate discipline issues are easily swept under the rug. Once their luck begins to turn, those issues move to the forefront. The acquisition of Feliz shows that “The Process” is still alive and well in Kansas City. While It’s clear that the Royals have no intention of contending this season, Moore’s acquisitions this off-season don’t necessarily inspire confidence once the farm system is ready to play and the team is close to contention.
Just to highlight the ineptitude of the Royals, I would like the readers to take another look at one of the tables Matt Klaassen posted in his Francoeur article.
“The four worst hitters hitters (by wOBA) among qualified players from 2008-2010.
127. Pedro Feliz, .284 wOBA*
126. Jason Kendall, .288 wOBA*
125. Yuniesky Betancourt, .291 wOBA
124. Jeff Francoeur, .298 wOBA*”
*current Royals player
That farm system had better be as good as advertised.
Chris is a blogger for CBSSports.com. He has also contributed to Sports on Earth, the 2013 Hard Ball Times Baseball Annual, ESPN, FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. He tries to be funny on twitter @Chris_Cwik.
Do you BB% instead of BB/9?
I understand the importance for wisdom at the plate, BB% and other at-bat stats.
But, one simple and more important stat from 2010 is KC lost 30 games by one run and 17 games by two runs.
Fix that and you are a winning team.
That’s still 111 runs over the course of the season… Pretty sure the guys above won’t add that.
And even if they miraculously did, the runs probably wouldn’t be distributed that conveniently.
Really?
If they score 111 more runs, then they’ll maybe lose “more” 1 or 2 games, because now the 2-3 runs losses they previously had are now 1-run losses.
In WAR terms that 111 runs is 11 WAR. At the “established” market rate, that’s 55M.
So spend 55M doillars … but spend it incredibly wisely so that you get your exact value for it.
Who would you sign for 55M that could provide 11 WAR (could be multiple guys), and would they sign with the Royals.
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As a side note , if the Royals were able to “fix” those 1 and 2 run losses, they would lead them to 114 wins, which should be good enough to make the playoffs.
Obviously the situation you present is not remedied how you suggest. You cannot “fix” close losses, other than getting all around better as a team.
The Royals need to be 20 Wins better. In WAR Dollars that’s 100M bucks. Not. Gonna. Happen.
I wish it would because Royals fans are smart folks, and the revovated stadium is top notch. KC deserves a playoff caliber team.
“…they would lead them to 114 wins, which should be good enough to make the playoffs.”
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I don’t know why, but I found that incredibly funny.
I’m not saying Dayton Moore is a good GM. I’m not saying he’s made good decisions, or that he looks for the right attributes when he builds his roster. But is a low walk rate really a good thing in his eyes?
If one batter hits .300 and earns an extra .050 onto his OBP from walks and another batter hits .250 and tacks on an additional .100 onto his OBP, aren’t they both still .350? And the guy with the higher average would conceivably be more useful because he’s probably driving a few more runners in.
The only concern I’d ever have is that it seems batting average is more fluke-induced from year to year where as walk rate is a fairly consistent skill. Still, getting guys who make contact in lieu of walking isn’t necessarily a bad thing as long as the hits are going through and the walk rate isn’t atrocious.
And don’t take this as me defending a signing of a player like Francoeur who is simply terrible no matter which angle you look. I’m just saying there is more than one path to achieve a goal.
In any given season (and all else being equal), the guy who hits .300 with a .350 OBP may be more valuable than the .250 hitting .350 OBP guy, however you are right that batting average is more driven by luck than OBP, so when signing one has a greater assurance that the .250 hitter will again reach base at a .350 clip. It’s a safer investment.
If both of them have the same SLG, the one with lower AVG is better – he hits more extra-base hits.
“The issue with many of these players (Escobar, Cain, and Aviles) is that too much of their value is tied up in their high-contact approach at the plate.”
Well, really, a lot of their value is tied up into their defense, at least as far as Escobar and Cain are concerned. If they happen to hit for a high average beyond that, I think the Royals would be pretty happy. And Escobar, in particular, seems to have just that type of skillset.
I’m not sure the Feliz signing warranted another negativity campaign against Dayton Moore. It’s a minor league contract, so it’s not like they went out and spent Ed Wade money on him or anything. Maybe they just wanted a guy with a long history of good defense in camp to push Aviles and Betemit to work on their own defense? Or perhaps they want Feliz in Triple-A working with Moustakas?
If Feliz ends up with the starting gig, then I’d think an article would be a necessity, and there’s a lot of venom that could flow freely at that point. But right now, this signing doesn’t mean very much of anything in the scheme of things.
Yes, everybody thought when he signed _______ earlier in the season that Dayton had changed his ways and embraced the beer league offensive approach. Everybody was thinking that it doesn’t matter if the farm system is any good, because he’s building a winner without them. Everybody thinks the signing of Pedro Feliz puts them over the top (in the extremely unlikely event that he makes the team).
This is the hard-hitting analysis that brings me to Fangraphs!
That’s pretty obviously not what he’s saying. (Also, clearly it’s the desire to snark that brings you to Fangraphs.)
The Royals are going to need some good FA signings to supplement the farm-raised core on its way up. Moore has continued to demonstrate that, whether he’s going expensive or cheap, he has no idea how to value players. Pedro Feliz is just the latest in a long line of players Moore has grabbed despite a low walk rate.
Sure, it’s a minor league contract, but there are other players he could have gotten cheap to play 3B that would have been, you know, actually playable.
We’re all hoping he finds the ability to value players when his team actually needs FAs.
What other players would be markedly better and be willing to sign a minimum level minor league contract with the Royals? All the names that jump to my mind as being better would a) demand a major league deal with more money and b) would not want to play for the Royals.
Ari, I have plenty of outlets for snark. Like when people try to claim that a nearly statistically insignificant number of jobs created can produce a .4% decline in the unemployment rate! I come to Fangraphs for actual analysis, not derivative, Cameron-worship.
How can you simultaneously claim that Dayton Moore has no idea how to evaluate talent and acknowledge that he’s built the best farm system in baseball (possibly the best ever)?
“How can you simultaneously claim that Dayton Moore has no idea how to evaluate talent and acknowledge that he’s built the best farm system in baseball (possibly the best ever)?”
Again is anyone making this claim? Let’s dispense with this straw man. I think the generally accepted consensus is the acuqisition and development of minor league talent is exceptional, and the acquisiton and decision-making surrounding established ML talent is fairly wretched.
So then I guess everybody is either claiming that he has no idea to evaluate talent, including the minor leagues, thereby ignoring the assessments of well, everybody OR they believe that he is a great ML talent evaluator (clearly not borne out by the evidence) and also is a great minor league talent evaluator.
Straw man how? And I have no idea how to even follow this exceptional vs. wretched argument. What the hell are you talking about?
Are you that lost? Pretty simple concept. Assemblage of minor league talent – very admirable. Acquistion of players already in the bigs – pretty wretched. Try and keep up.
Jason B: So the argument is that the acquisition of minor league talent is exceptional by accident, but the acquisition of ML talent is wretched because Dayton Moore doesn’t know how to evaluate talent?
That seems implausible to me. You can accept that illogic if you choose.
Paul. This is really not that hard. Drafting is an entirely different process from the FA market.
It’s very very hard to overpay for draft picks. All of the high picks provide excess value, because the relative lack of free market competition drives the prices down considerably. Combine that with year after year of high draft picks, and you have a great farm system. Even despite some poor picks here and there.
What’s more, valuing draft picks is about projection. You’re taking a 17-year-old or a 20-year-old and trying to figure out what they will turn into. This is mostly done by scouts, who can see tools and the skills and try to figure out what kind of player they’ll turn into.
This is entirely different form free agency. In FA, you are projecting players based on past performance. Different FOs will value different things in past performance.
Dayton Moore’s FO has repeatedly shown its preference for signing high-contact low-walk-rate players with poor defense. And what’s more, he has many times paid far more than anyone else was willing to in order to sign these players. This signing, while, again, a minor league signing that will ultimately have little effect on the team’s present and no effect on the team’s future, shows a continuation of that system of valuation.
We’re all hoping that Moore’s FO will surround the team’s great young players with good FAs when the time comes to actually spend money. It would be a shame to see what could be a great young core go to waste. But this offseason is another data point on the graph of their complete inability to value players.
Ari: Thank you for the lesson in how players are acquired. This is where your argument fails:
“It’s very very hard to overpay for draft picks. All of the high picks provide excess value, because the relative lack of free market competition drives the prices down considerably. Combine that with year after year of high draft picks, and you have a great farm system. Even despite some poor picks here and there.”
There is of course an open market for free agent major league players. If either the amateur market or the major league player market were the opposite of what they are, you could realistically determine if Dayton Moore is a bad talent evaluator.
As it is, you can argue that he’s a bad talent evaluator based on major league signings. OR you can argue, as I do, that it is implausible that he is (despite a background as a coach and scout) a good talent evaluator when it comes to amateur players, but bad when it comes to major league players. And you could further argue that because the method for acquiring players in these two markets are different, along with some other extraneous factors like caring about a player’s character, Dayton’s acquisition of major league players is not as simple as making a draft pick and paying them a certain, artificially suppressed amount.
This is not exactly the small market argument. It’s the free market argument. Maybe Felipe Lopez does not want to play in KC, just like Zack Grienke didn’t. Regarding player characteristics, right now they are valuing high character guys, and Feliz wins over Lopez there as well.
Sounds like what you’re really saying is that when the playing field is more even or balanced (MiLB) he does great. When he’s placed in a big disadvantage, he tried too hard to find hidden gems or signs players thinking they will do well, when everyone seems to think they won’t.
I thought his signing of Frenchy had everything to do with character. That’s what I read from Poz.
CircleChange: As usual, you explained it a lot better than I could.
Hey Paul, I’m very confused now and think we might be saying the same thing… What I’m saying is that because the processes of valuing and purchasing talent in the draft and in FA are so vastly different, it is possible (and borne out by evidence) that Moore is very good at one and not very good at the other. And you seem to say that that’s illogical to argue that he’s good at one and somehow not good at the other. But then you also say, “you could further argue that because the method for acquiring players in these two markets are different, along with some other extraneous factors like caring about a player’s character, Dayton’s acquisition of major league players is not as simple as making a draft pick and paying them a certain, artificially suppressed amount.” Which is pretty much what I’m saying; when making draft picks is (relative to FA anyway!) simple, he does really well, but when it comes to figuring out which players to go after in FA, which is based on entirely different criteria from the all-projection draft, he consistently chooses high-contact empty-BA players.
Regarding the argument that he gave contracts to some of these guys based on character, well, isn’t that what you say when you have no other defense? I’m NOT saying that character doesn’t matter. FAR from it. I’m saying that FO spokesmen always list character as a reason, and especially list it as a reason for grabbing relatively worthless players. It’s the other side’s version of the player’s, “I’ve always wanted to play here.” It’s also, in Moore’s case, clearly not an overall strategy of his, or, at least, it hasn’t always been; he’s picked up many malcontents in his time. (All of whom also brought little in the way of baseball skills, or at least the ones I remember, at any rate.)
To what extent is it fair to say that offering a minor league deal to a guy who was an outstanding glove man is part of a “flawed” off-season? Used to be having guys with the potential to contribute something as minor league depth was a good thing. The Royals aren’t signing Feliz to be their starting 3rd baseman or utility infielder….just a AAA guy. I get that Fangraphs dislike the Royals, but bashing the Feliz signing seems gratituous.
“The Royals aren’t signing Feliz to be their starting 3rd baseman or utility infielder….just a AAA guy.”
Are you sure about that? I would wager dollars to donuts he’s on their ML roster when they break camp.
(And if not, I am not above admitting my error and stating the glaring wrongness of my opinion…it’s happened lots, I get plenty of practice.)
While I agree that it’s an odd pickup on the face of it, it’s a minor league deal and I fail to see why everybody should be so revved about it, or feel the need to bash Dayton Moore again as a result. I agree with hunterfan, Feliz is not going to make the major league team, period. He’s organizational fodder for Omaha, where they actually could use a body – not for third base, but as a utility type.
I also want to speak about Cain. It’s complete BS to taint the guy with the “won’t take a walk” tag based on a whopping SSS of 158 major league plate appearances, especially when his minor league walk rates are solid. Very disappointing of FanGraphs.
If I’m reading this right, Chris’s beef with this decision is that he believes that there is a reasonable chance that Betemit and Aviles fail; Betemit won’t break out and Aviles’ BABIP will return to league average. I have a hard time seeing either of these guys failing to the point that Feliz has to play. I don’t feel this is a bad move. Feliz hasn’t fallen apart as a third baseman. He plays good defense, that’s all you need from your third third baseman.
“He plays good defense, that’s all you need from your third third baseman.”
?!?!?!?! Really?!?! A position traditionally known as a power position, or a cornerstone of the offense (along with 1B, RF, LF) is now defense only? Damn the world changed overnight.
I just don’t see the point in getting worked up over a minor league signing. At best, this is a depth move with the intention of Feliz imparting some defensive wisdom onto Mike Moustakas. At worst, he’s cut in spring training. Who really cares??
I agree. It seems to me that if this move was made by anybody not named Dayton Moore it probably wouldn’t have even got mentioned, let alone criticized.(I usually hate when people say things like this on here but I’m really starting to think there is some truth to it. )
EXACTLY!! This is a minor league contract. For years, everyone harked on the royals for not taking chances on low risk moderate reward minor league contracts. But now the royals are stupid becuase they commit a few hundred thousand to Felipe Lopez.
The logic that they are already set at 3b is stupid. Aviles and Betemit aren’t exactly close to being Longoria or Zimmerman. IN fact Aviles has a good chance of starting at 2nd instead of 3rd (unless you think that he is “blocked’ by Getz…). And before hte last three months of 2010 Betemit was, well Betemit. let’s not crown his ass just yet.
And this setiment against the Royals is now getting lazy. They can spend a few thousand dollars to try and find a temporary solution at third and be slammed. but yet the Red Sox and A’s can spend a grip on OF’ers and be praised as ‘sage and savvy’. Oh and the Rays can go off and sign Juan Cruz and not a single snarky thing come up about that . Never mind that ALL of those teams are infinite steps closer to being contender than the royals.
Fangraphs has proven itself to be objective and above getting dragged into this sort of lazy story writing/beliefs. Time to reassess and turn the page.
Felipe Lopez is worth taking a flier on. Pedro Feliz isn’t. He’s many kinds of awful.
My mistake. But the point remains the same. Interchange the players name with just about anyone and the critism would have been the same.
My argument is that, the nitpicking of the the Royals and DM has become lazy on the part of Fangraphs. How the Red Sox can sign Hermedia and Andrew Miller and get praised for being resourcful yet the royals sign an equally crappy player and get blasted for being same ol’ stupid organization.
Fangraphs has let their preconceived notion of how the Royals and other organizations are ran get in the way of being being objective. Plan and simple.
‘Fangraphs has let their preconceived notion of how the Royals and other organizations are ran get in the way of being being objective.”
Um, no. Acquiring pieces with little-to-no OBP skills, whether signed to a ML deal or minor-league deal, fits *perfectly* with the Royals’ recent MO.
Two things. First, critics are overstating the so-called bashing of the Royals in the article. It is simply noting a continuing pattern in its decisions about whom to sign, a pattern which should concern Royals fans when projecting how well Moore will do to build a complementary team around the coming star prospects. The tone is neither snarky nor is it claiming that trading for Escobar and Cain was a mistake.
Second, it is exactly because unlike Boston or TB the Royals are not ready to compete that signing Feliz makes little sense. For a team looking for a fall back option in case of injury, or perhaps a 25th man on the roster to provide defense, or taking a low risk chance that a player like Cruz or Hermida might regain his form and contribute in a pennant race makes sense. But for a team that has no such reasonable hopes, it is a move with little to justify it. Perhaps one could say so what, but it still raises the question of what it is that Moore is looking for when he signs a player.
Bob R.: The article is making the point that they continue to make mistakes by acquiring low OBP players, citing Escobar and Cain. This is not claiming that acquiring them was a mistake how? How can they be components of the argument of a pattern of mistakes without being mistakes in the abstract?
Bob R: To your second point:
“There’s no risk at all,” said Royals general manager Dayton Moore. “He’s a veteran guy who gives us some depth. Historically, he’s a very good defender, a quality makeup guy.”
http://www.kansascity.com/2011/02/03/2629918/report-royals-sign-pedro-feliz.html
Apparently the Kansas City Star is really hard for some writers to find and link to. Write this down for future reference: kansascity.com.
Paul, I think you are reading into the article more than it intends. Yes, he does comment on the low BB rate of both Cain and Escobar, but he does not say the trade for them was a mistake. He is simply pointing out a continuing lack of concern for OBP, or at least a willingness to acquire such players. It is entirely possible that in the larger perspective of their defensive abilities and other pluses that on balance he would consider them useful additions. I think it is you who are judging based on a presumption that the author scorns Moore, thus reading more scorn into his statements than are there.
As for the low risk issue, I know that is Moore’s point. And I also think that “high character” players are often his preference, often to the exclusion of more tangible qualities. In any case, my point is not that for all teams or in all cases it would be silly to sign Feliz. My point is that contrary to Tony’s point that contenders sign similar players (and I disagree with his analogies, by the way, but that is a different issue) and are praised while KC is mocked, in my view he has it backwards. It makes sense to a contender to sign an aging major leaguer with serious debilities to a minor league deal for depth, but it is a waste of effort (and opportunity cost) for a non-contender to do it.
If you think that it is worth it to sign a player for his character, fine. That might be defensible. But when that factor seems a dominant one in many signings, I think fans have to worry. The successful GMs often sign low risk players, but ordinarily fans can see the potential beyond character. In the Cruz case, for example, we know he has a history of striking people out, and we also know the Rays have had some success with injured relievers who walk too many but have power arms. Most of Friedman’s low risk minor league signings are explicable for particular skills the Rays prize. Moore’s aren’t beyond character, while the negatives are always clear.
Christina Kahrl at BP says some of what I am trying to say, but more succinctly and clearly:
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“François de La Rochefoucauld says: We do not despise all those who have vices, but we do despise those that have no virtue.
As harsh as that might seem, last season, there were no players more execrable than Feliz. At least Brandon Wood has a tenuous grip on a future of one sort or another; Feliz has his oft-punched ticket to the postseason from being a get-along, go-along non-factor on the Phillies, and the memory of last being a useful everyday player seven years ago. His glove work at third base gave up the ghost a couple of seasons ago, which wasn’t enough to discourage the Astros, or the Cardinals, to both teams’ regret. So naturally, he’s a Royal, because… well, what? Somebody foresaw that both Mike Aviles and Wilson Betemit might die in tragic corndog-eating accidents, and that this might happen before they want to give the job at third base to Mike Moustakas? There’s a difference between acquiring depth, and wasting your time. This had better just be a favor, because there is nothing to suggest that Feliz is anything but done.”
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The criticism is not that this some disastrous move but that it is “a waste of time”, and should make Royals fans nervous about whether Moore understands that. Because if he doesn’t, there is some question about whether he can build a team around his coming all-star prospects.
The available third basemen who might sign a minor league contract are all pretty terrible, but some have youth on their side, or a willingness to walk, or the ability to work pitchers or something that might, no matter how long the odds, pay off into something useful. It is not that they are better than Feliz but that signing one indicates an understanding of the difference between targeting someone for a reason and throwing darts while blindfolded hoping just to hit near the target.
Bob R.: I am not worried at all about a GM who knows his team can’t be competitive, trying to surround his young players with quality veteran character guys. We can demonstrate that it worked re: Meche – Greinke. That’s just my position in general.
But then reportedly when Dayton arrived the clubhouse culture was really, really bad. Tony Pena had a very different way of looking at this, and under him things got out of control (and continued under Bell). That’s not to say that if Franceour had been there, Mark Teahen would have turned into an All-Star. But as a general operating procedure, a GM has to think about what kinds of citizens his players are when they are not at the ball park. Some GM’s (*cough* Jack Z *cough*) could obviously care less about this. As a KC fan, I do. That doesn’t mean it leads to more wins, I’d say it’s probably a wash. Mike Moustakas is not going to perform any differently because Feliz showed him a few off the path Mexican joints in Tampa.
As I said, Paul, it is possible to defend acquiring players with solid character. In fact, many successful teams make that a priority in their selections. But they try to combine it with more tangible skills. There are plenty of players who can do something valuable on the field and also be models or leaders or simply good clubhouse guys.
I still think the warning flag in this sort of deal is that it continues a pattern of ignoring other factors and defending such signings purely on the basis of these intangibles. If the Royals were poised to contend in 2011, I could see some justification in signing Feliz. But the challenge now is to find players who have some chance of complementing the coming (hopeful) stars &/or to find hidden talent to fill expected gaps even after they arrive.
I will use the Rays as an example. From 2006-2007, most of the players Friedman acquired through trades and minor league signings flopped. But it was clear why he sought to get them. Either they had some chance to fill spots where the Rays were thin (Navarro) or they had demonstrated some important (to the Rays) skills such as patience at the plate, power, strikeout ability (for pitchers), excellent control or some special pitch et al. That explains players such as Pedroza, Ruggiano, Tiffany, Gibson and many others, all of whom washed out. It also explains signing Pena and Choi, Hinske, Branyan and the like. Many were good character pickups (Floyd), but all had something else to recommend them-the chance, however remote-to augment the talent once the team was ready to contend.
In and of itself, the Feliz signing is insignificant. But what does it tell us about Moore? How focused is he on what is important? When LaMar was with the Rays he did similar things, making deals that meant nothing. So they had no effect, but that was a bad sign about his ability to distinguish what really was important.
What he said.
Now I understand the criticism if this had been a major league deal, but i do not understand the obvious disdain over this minor league deal. Last year for Betemit could have been an anomaly, or Aviles could get hurt….there is no arguing Moustakas will be the starting 3B by mid-may at the latest, but Dayton is just trying to hedge his bets to prevent what happened last year when Gordon was hurt, Callaspo was hurt and wee Willie was the opening day 3B. Who would you have signed for a little extra 3B depth? Maybe Feliz was signed to be Omaha’s 3B when Moustakas comes up? 🙂 Now if everyone else is healthy and he makes the opening day roster, you can save this post and rub it in my face, but to say this is a flawed signing, when it just MIGHT amount to NOTHING, is to just hate on Dayton Moore because of all of the Royals past mistakes.
I agree with this post. I don’t think that Dayton Moore is particularly shrewd with making moves, but if it comes to pass that Feliz actually plays in the Majors for them this season, it probably means that there were so many injuries/ineffective players that they needed some depth. As a last-ditch, fill the roster move on a minor league contract, I don’t really think this is worthy of ridicule.
I think the article is mostly pointing out something that we all already knew: Moore doesn’t value OBP. It’s not so much an article bashing DM as it is just redundant.
If anybody is interested I interviewed Voros McCracken as a follow up to Jeff Passan’s solid piece.
What’s wrong with getting a back up infielder to help delay having to bring up younger talent and start their arb clocks when the team isn’t in contention?
Seems like you’re going overboard on a minor-league contract. They have to paste together a season or so before Moustakas takes over, and Feliz is a no-risk body to bring into the mix. If he bombs, no loss. Same with Francoeur. He’s just a body until Wil Myers is ready, probably sometime in July this year.
Who do you think they should bring in to keep those seats warm? Fernando Tatis? Jim Edmonds? Andruw Jones? You’re not going to bring in anyone who can’t be swapped out the minute your top prospects are ready, so it’s pretty slim pickins of veteran cast-offs.
Did you see the season Edmonds had last year? He posted a 127 OPS+ versus an 85 OPS+ for Francoeur. If the Royals were just looking for warm bodies for a season (as you say), I’d much rather have Jim Edmonds than Jeff Francoeur, even if Edmonds is 41.
I don’t think it’s so much Feliz’s signing thats being mocked but how Dayton Moore now has recently had the 4 worst hitters from 2008-2010 on his roster. Sure they’re not competitive yet, but no wonder they’re lingering in the basement.
Then again, maybe its Moore’s strategy to have the rookies play along side guys that suck so they gain confidence in their own skill set. Hey look, I’m getting on base at a .320 clip – thats .20 higher than Francouer!
Totally agreed – this is the main thrust of the article. No one is saying this is going to send them from being a 95-win team to out-of-the-playoffs. It’s just saying the FA signings that Moore makes have been inexplicable-to-awful. At some point he’s going to have to demonstrate considerably more acumen than he has to date in the players he assembles around this super talent down on the farm, if they want to have a shot at contention in 2012-13 or whenever.
If you don’t demonstrate a sound rationale for your $500,000 signings, you probably won’t do much better at $5,000,000 signings. Or, if you don’t demonstrate a good eye for acquiring FA’s as a 65-win team, why would you be expected to do any better with a potentially 85-win team?
Have you seen the rotation – for fifteen years? The Cliff Lee signing would have realistically helped the Mariners win two more games last season. The Royals would have needed to sign or trade for him every year for fifteen years to sniff .500 (and please don’t bring up the magical 2003).
Why have many posters to this site proclaimed #6org to be tired and worn out, while defending it, being baffled that writers are not ranking a rapist who happens to pitch relief in the minor leagues as a number 10 prospect, BUT it’s totally okay to beat “The Process” dead horse whenever it’s a slow news day?
‘being baffled that writers are not ranking a rapist who happens to pitch relief in the minor leagues as a number 10 prospect,”
Well this has gone off the tracks a bit…and this latest signing melds *perfectly* in the Royals’ process.
Damn,now I’m really disappointed they traded Yuni. Could’ve been something special there.
this. i think it would be hilarious if he was still on the team. the 4 worst players! ah that would be incredible.
I like the 4 players you threw up at the end. GO ROYALS! hopefully they can edge out the Pirates again.
nah man. it’s all about the reverse standings.
There’s no denying the chart at the end is worrisome.
As a Royals fan, I’ve agreed with pretty much everything that has been said about their moves…Frenchy, Melky, etc. I don’t understand why we should care about a minor league deal for Feliz. I understand he’s awful, but this is just different than those other moves. It’s a non-story. I think the point has already been made about Dayton. Let’s move on. We’ll see what he does when the time comes that the prospects are ready.
The criticism of Escobar and Francouer is legitimate, but as a writer at Fangraphs, shouldn’t you understand that sample size is an issue in under 200 PA? Throughout the minors Cain has posted a BB % of over 10, including 11.5% split between AA and AAA last season. That’s hardly a hacker in the class of Francouer.
Terrible article. Much ado about nothing…
The dude was signed to a *minor* league contract as a backup to a backup and likely to be organizational fodder. I know it’s chic to bash the Royals, but next time can you at least make sure it’s justifiable before you start typing?
Agreed. This smacks of the “if Dayton Moore did it, it must be wrong” school of baseball writing, and frankly, it’s a school that’s becoming tiresome. Where’s the Rays-bashing article for them signing Juan Cruz? How about the Orioles inking Randy Winn? The Phillies are considering Gary Matthews Jr., how about that one? These are all minor league deals as well. Why the double standard for Dayton Moore?
The Rays signed Farnsworth.
@CirecleChange below, Rays signed Cruz as well. Farnsworth is a major league deal, Cruz is a minor league deal.
Question: How many articles can FanGraphs write bashing the Royals?
Answer: Apparently, ALL of the articles.
Seriously, it’s a Minor League signing, they’re not expecting him to be a crucial piece to a playoff-caliber team. Really, does this require an entire (rather long) article? Everyone knows he won’t make that much of a difference; obviously, we’re all here, so I’m assuming most of us aren’t morons and could figure that out immediately after seeing the headline “Royals sign Pedro Feliz to minor league deal.”
Honestly, please find a new punching bag, FanGraphs. Constantly picking on the Royals is getting old and nothing new can really be said.
Scratch the “rather long” comment, I dunno why I thought that at first heh. Still, everything else applies.
Did you read the Jeff Francis article? If anything, it went overboard with the praise.
Outliers: there’s always at least one.
At least he unloaded Betancourt….
While I completely agree that Dayton Moore doesn’t care about OBP in comparison to BA; and that it represents a flawed approach that almost certainly can’t build a sustained winner in KC; attacking him for hiring Feliz is rather crazy. After all, we have no idea on what Dayton Moore was looking for. If you were just looking at the numbers, there are surely other options out there such as Willy Aybar.
It’s an odd signing even for Dayton because Feliz is old. Most of his “organizational filler” guys have been under 30 former high draft pick washouts, like WIlson Betemit. And quite frankly, that was a success.
You know Rich Lederer of Baseball Analysts?
His mother is a fat fucking whore.
Go away.
After a couple of signings like these, it seems very possible that Dayton Moore is trying to put the worst team that he can on the field. Is he doing it for some sick thrill? Does he hate Kansas City? Is he trying to get a higher pick in the first round for the draft?
The worst article I have ever seen. that’s just minorlegue deal. yeh.
I’m no royals fan here. but I’m sick and tired. just stop bull shit stat guys. you never gonna win a MLB job ever.
“you never gonna win a MLB job ever.”
*Snicker*. Despite the fact that many organizations now employ people with statistical backgrounds and many forward-thinking teams have done quite well employing this type of research.
There are legitimate criticisms that can be leveled at this article or most any, but this one is laughable.
“The worst article I have ever seen.”
Well at least you’re not prone to hyperbole. DUDE!! STARSHIP TROOPERS WAS THE BEST MOVIE EVER!!1!1
Dude, Starship Troopers was the best movie ever made.
I follow prospects quite closely and that Royals system is super sexy. However, I am literally terrified about how Dayton Moore will somehow squander his riches with his inexplicably atrocious moves.
At this Point it is safe to say that every move Dayton Moore makes is specifically designed to spite the Sabermetric community and other rational thinkers worldwide.
Unless I’m mistaken, the Royals offense led the majors in “not striking out”. Since the Royals appeared to be a (non-technical term) crappy team, is it reasonable to assume this was a deliberate strategy? Maybe they were thinking it’s okay not to walk as long as you don’t strike out either?
I think the issue is that it is indicative of Moore’s approach. It doesn’t seem to me that he understands the importance of either OBP or fielding.
And the minor league is strong, if unproven, but if you finish last often enough, you’ll do okay. His first pick in the last few years was 4, 12, 3, 2, 1, and 2. If you used any decent magazine, you’d have some good drafts. Add to that the young players acquired by trading away the guys left to you by the previous administration, and most people would have a good minor league system.
Was an entire article dedicated to a Pedro Feliz minor league deal really necessary? The guy was signed for depth and likely won’t see the field at the major league level much at all this year. To echo an earlier point, Feliz will likely spend a lot of time with Moustakas defensively before he is called up after the All-Star break.
“This gives us a chance to control a veteran, major-league player throughout camp, versus when you have two injuries, you have to trade for one,” Dayton Moore said.
Sounds fine to me. Look, I get that nearly everyone that blogs on sites like this love to bash Dayton Moore with every keystroke, but give me a break.
1. Francoeur- They needed someone to play right field during a season in which they will likely lose 100 games. He’s signed to a 1-yr deal for a couple million bucks. Who cares? He’s not going to stand in the way of any prospects, and perhaps might actually realize some of the unrealized potential (unlikely, but again basically no risk) at virtually no cost to the team.
2. Betancourt- NOT WITH THE TEAM ANYMORE SO WHY DOES IT MATTER? This is about the future not the past.
3. Kendall- He won’t even see the field until July (if at all) and his contract is up after this year. Again, he will not stand in the way of any prospect development.
Honestly, I understand that Dayton has made some bad moves in the past but this seems a little overblown. We’ve already been over the Francoeur deal. If this was not a Dayton signing it would not have warranted a post (like if the Yankees signed Bartolo Colon). It’s a minor league deal. I don’t want to stir things up but it seems like, on occasion, FanGraphs likes to write articles against Moore because the momentum from writing articles against Moore in the past.
The exception to this is Matt Klaassen, who dislikes Dayton but that is ok because it is entertaining and he is only one person.
Lastly, please do not stop writing about the Royals because I complained about overblown criticisms of Dayton Moore.
Thanks
Dayton Moore is a great GM because he drafted well? And that as Royals fans we should not be mad at him for signing or trading for all of the trash that he has. I am at a loss to recall a good free agent signing (Okay Betemit) or trade he has made. Sure he drafted well and has assembled a very good farm system – WE THINK – none of the draftees have contributed anything to the Royals and may never contribute. We know what the signees bring – lots of K’s no walks and many many boos.
Also how much analysis and GM smarts did it take for him to draft Eric Hosmer or Mike Mouse-taco’s, probably our two best prospects?
“I am at a loss to recall a good free agent signing (Okay Betemit) or trade he has made.”
Well, Brian Bannister for Burgos was a good trade. Both signing David Riske was good (he’d just come off a bad year and had a very good one for the Royals) and letting him go for a compensation pick which became Mike Montgomery was pretty sweet, especially give what Riske subsequently did. Meche, for the first 2.5 years was good. The Podsednik signing worked out well. Buckner for Alberto Callaspo was a decent trade. Tony Graffinino for Jorge De La Rosa was good. So was Elmer Dessens for Odalis Perez. Moore’s had a lot of bad ones and I don’t like defending him, but your memory is selectively omissive.
Don’t forget Farnsworth for Tim Collins. Or Tejeda off waivers. Or Joakim Soria in the Rule 5. Or signing Yordano Ventura for nothing and he’s the #2 prospect in the AZL the next season. Then there’s the development that takes place with prospects, which people who claim any shmoe off the street can draft well seem to miss. Teaford from nowhere to Team USA. How much of it was he directly responsible for? Probably very little, but he’s the man, so he gets both all the blame and all the credit.
Unless you just want to be unfair, and that’s what the tone of the most of these comments seem to question.
I think a bad way of evaluating a GM is to make lists of good and bad moves. There are so many decisions of that sort, every GM will have a decent sample of some that work well and some that flop. LaMar in TB was a terrible GM; there was no clear plan or system in place, but it is easy to identify many excellent deals and draft choices. The ultimate point was he could never organize them so as to build a representative team.
So with Moore, or at least it seems to be the case. Nobody denies his talent for evaluating prospects. And of course he has made good signings and productive deals. The question remains whether they are because of a well thought out approach to building a contender or whether they are incidental to his approach.
It is not a question of bashing the Royals or Moore or refusing to give credit. It is an effort to discover the process he talks about, to see whether there is any consistency in that process or merely a flailing around to discover useful players without reference to what might make them useful. So each move is discussed in larger terms of how they reflect his approach, not as individual good or bad moves.
What does it matter how smart or dumb he is?
the owner won’t let him keep any good players.
Let me know when KC isn’t owned buy a guy who ran walmart.