Scouty Thoughts on Tim Anderson and Michael Ynoa
Now that the draft has passed it’s time to get caught up on the weekend’s most significant call-up, that of White Sox top prospect Tim Anderson. Anderson was hitting .304/.325/.409 at Triple-A Charlotte before his promotion.
First, let’s appreciate how incredible it is that Anderson has come this far in such a short amount of time. He didn’t begin playing baseball seriously until his junior year of high school and received no Division I offers despite playing just under eight miles from the University of Alabama and for a school that has produced big-league talent in the past in former reliever Brandon Medders. Instead, Anderson’s chief athletic accomplishment in high school came in basketball, where he helped Hillcrest High School capture an Alabama state title in 2011 (video here, Anderson is #12). Jalen Brown, who clearly looks like the best scorer on that team, ended up averaging just over 10 points per game at Shelton State College, another local school that whiffed on Anderson.
After he began focusing on baseball, Anderson ended up at East Central Community College in Decatur, Mississippi, and slashed .306/.425/.500 with 30 steals in 30 attempts (per Baseball Cube) as a freshman in 2012 but somehow went undrafted. He was finally unearthed during a small college summer league later that year, then blew up at an autumn JUCO showcase and was selected in the first round the following June.
Anderson has prodigious physical skill. He has plus bat speed, clunky-yet-effective bat control and an ability to drive the ball to various parts of the field despite footwork that’s usually indicative of pull-only hitters. In fact, three of Anderson’s four home runs this season have been to right field. Despite special bat speed, Anderson doesn’t yet have a feel for striking the baseball in a way that generates consistent lift, especially to his pull side, and most of his contact is hard but into the ground. It’s a unique contact profile and one that’s tough to grade, but generally scouts think Anderson will end up a 50 or 55 hitter.
Part of what will aid in Anderson’s ability to get on base, especially considering how ground-ball heavy he can be, is his speed. Anderson is a 70 runner but, because of the way his swing often pulls him down the third-base line, it plays down from home to first and I’ve never gotten a time better than 4.20, which is still plus. His base-running is incredible, though, and he coasts from first to third briskly and efficiently.
There’s average raw power here, but again, it doesn’t play like that in game — not right now, anyway — and might never be more than a 40 on the scale. I think there’s a chance that Anderson’s feel for loft comes late and you see more power, though probably never more than 50 game power. For now, I think it’s reasonable to project a half grade’s worth of improvement in that area.
Expect all areas of Anderson’s offense to initially play below his physical abilities. He has an epicurean approach to hitting and swings freely and aggressively. His walk rate is somewhat troubling — Anderson hasn’t posted a walk rate over 4.4% in a moderate sample at any level since his 2013 debut in A-ball — and he will need to improve his approach to realize his offensive potential.
Anderson’s defense faces some scrutiny, as well. He comfortably has the necessary range, arm (60) and athleticism to play shortstop but is technically unpolished and will sometimes boot basic plays. Though he has improved, and major-league instruction will probably continue to help, there’s still work to be done in this area.
Though there’s some volatility in discerning just how impactful he’ll be, Anderson is almost certainly going to be a useful major-league player given his explosiveness and ability to play shortstop. I wouldn’t suggest White Sox fans or redraft fantasy owners get their collective hopes up this season, but Anderson has a chance to be an above-average everyday player if even some of his present ills are remedied — and a star if all of them are.
*****
Also of note for the White Sox, Michael Ynoa’s eight-year minor-league Odyssey ends as he makes his major-league debut at the age of 24. Reports on Ynoa, who was originally signed for $4.25 million by Oakland in 2008, are of the middle-relief variety: 92-96 mph with a breaking ball that flashes above average but lacks consistency (though it seems to have been more regularly effective of late) and below-average control. It’s worth noting that Ynoa has only pitched on back-to-back days once this year, on June 1 and 2, and surrendered two hits, two walks and three runs in a third of an inning on the second of those days. He has allowed a base-runner in 16 of his 18 appearances since being promoted to Triple-A.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
Love what I’m seeing from Anderson so far. The walk rate is obviously alarming, and he’ll need to learn to work counts in the big leagues, but his bat control is everything it was talked up to be. He can hit pitches all throughout the zone, inside and out, and he sprays the ball to all fields. His speed is exceptional once he gets going, but he definitely does fall off towards third with his swing. You really see his speed going first to third, and he puts pressure on the defense as he’s already caused two misplays in the outfield on doubles.
His first step at short is very quick at short stop, and he has great range, but he booted a ball last night that wasn’t called an error but with his range it’s a play he has to make. His arm is exceptional – not quite the best at short but it will rank up there.
His bat speed is apparent – the ball really explodes off his barrel. He’s been a treat to watch. He will have growing pains, his swing can get a little long sometimes, and he chases up in the zone a bit, but he seems to be able to make contact with everything. his hands are a little twitchy, and his load (timing mechanism) is a little long for my liking – I’d like hands to the ball a little more. That said, his hands are so quick… his hands are his best attribute I think, that he is capable of having a twitchy load because his hands are so quick and to the baseball.
There are concerns, but his progress to this point leads me to believe he’s no where near his peak as a baseball player, and that he has room for growth which is scary considering how good his tools are. Nice write up.
Epicurean, nice.
I get the metaphor, but the adjective has a confusingly different meaning than the philosophy.
I keep having the same argument with other Sox fans. With his lack of on base ability I keep saying he shouldn’t bat leadoff, but with his speed and bat control I keep drawing a blank on where he should bat. And of course every fan sees a fast athletic shortstop and thinks leadoff. Anyone have any input?
Somewhere in the 6-9 range–at least for now–to take off the pressure a little?
Although an extremely small sample, he’s been very good in the 1 spot for the White Sox so far. I think he likes leading off, and I think it may be where he is most comfortable.
In the AL, I’d bat him 9th so his leadoff skills can be utilized when he does get on base, but his lack of onbase skills won’t hold back the rest of the offense. If he was an NL player, I’d bat him right in front of the pitcher… he might get pitched around a little bit and get on base because the opposition would rather face the pitcher, then he could put that speed to use.
But the reason why batting a low on base guy lead off is bad is because the leadoff hitter bats ~100 more times than the 9th hitter. So if he’s got a 320 OBA, that’s 68 more outs he’ll make batting leadoff.
A hitter devoted to sensual pleasure, or a hitter who believes the world is a chance combination of atoms?
I just don’t know how Tim Anderson can be successful in the long term with that K/BB ratio and middle infielder power.
The nice thing about Anderson is he’s far from a finished product. I don’t think he can be pigeon-holed as anything at this point in his career. He has shown an ability to adjust at every level and change his game; he had a dreadful April this year in his first year at AAA, and then had a monster bounce back May. He has the attitude to succeed, the question is will he develop strike zone discipline in the bigs. They won’t throw you strikes if they know you’ll never walk. I think he’s capable of it, but it certainly isn’t a sure thing.
Lets not forget that Anderson’s slow start was likely tied to a wrist injury that he suffered from for the entirety of April, and that once he got healthy, he was obviously a different hitter… A lot of people want to knock Anderson for his lack of walks, but when I watch his plate appearances, I see a guy that is a free swinger but also a relatively disciplined hitter that does not go outside the zone very often. Given his speed, I like his approach, and if I’m White Sox management I am pushing that kid to put his bat on the ball and use his wheels to get base hits. There’s no rule that says you need to walk a ton to be a decent leadoff hitter… Prototypically, yes, it helps the OBP, but there are a lot of top 5 prospects over the last 10 years that were profiled for leadoff spots (Profar, for one) that never managed to hit .300 at ANY level, and Tim Anderson managed to hit .300 at his last four levels, if I am not mistaken. Give the kid some time, he has all the potential in the world.