Scripting the Reach-Out Calls: American League
Building off yesterday’s National League scripts for teams’ reach-out calls, today I move on to the American League.
American League East
Tampa Bay Rays
Obviously, we don’t have a ton of room to add in terms of budget. There are some right-handed hitting first baseman out there who could be good fits for us without adding too much to our payroll. We love what Kevin Kiermaier brings to the clubhouse and with his glove, but we could use a center field upgrade. As usual, we have a bunch of no-name relievers pitching like stars, and there are some ‘pen arms out there who check our data boxes who might be of interest, but only if the price is right.
Boston Red Sox
We’re surprised we’re here, too, but we’re also convinced this team is good, so we’re looking to bolster the roster. Our biggest issue is first base, as we can’t afford to keep throwing Bobby Dalbec out there and clearly need an upgrade. With Franchy Cordero cratering and Enrique Hernández not hitting, an outfield piece that allowed us to move Hernández back to more of a utility role, where we think he’d be more productive, would interest us. We’re quite happy with our pitching, but like the rest of the world, we have some bullpen targets to improve upon our depth there.
Toronto Blue Jays
We wish we were more than a handful of games over .500, but at the same time, we made one of the biggest moves of the offseason and he’s only played four games, so we are looking at George Springer as our biggest second-half addition. Catcher is a problem for us, and while we like the bat of Alejandro Kirk, we don’t really trust him defensively in a playoff run, so we’d like to find an upgrade there. But the real focus for us is pitching. We need starters and we need relievers if we are going to make a push into the postseason, and we plan on being aggressive. We think the division is still within reach, and certainly a Wild Card is.
New York Yankees
Frankly, we’re a bit stuck in the mud. We’re not happy with the team, but we’re only a few million dollars below the Competitive Balance Tax threshold in terms of payroll. Our biggest concern right now is the outfield. The Aaron Hicks injury really hurt us and we need a center fielder. We’d also be willing to move Clint Frazier for a more steady presence in a corner. He might figure it out elsewhere, but it doesn’t feel like it’s going to happen here. We’re pretty happy with our pitching, it’s the offense that’s the problem, but it’s not like we’re going to replace some under-performers who are still a big part of our team, so between that and our payroll issue, we might just ride this out unless something really grabs us.
Baltimore Orioles
We’re already in active talks about some of our guys, but don’t ask about Cedric Mullins or John Means right now. We’re not shutting down talks on anyone, but we’re certainly not looking to move either player at this time. The most action we have right now is on Trey Mancini, who we think is the best first base target out there, still has a year of control left after this one, and we don’t have to tell you about the makeup. Take a look at Freddy Galvis, who is having a solid year at the plate, remains a steady defender and would have almost zero impact on your payroll.
American League Central
Chicago White Sox
We’ve been hit by some big injuries, but we’re still in first place and we plan on being aggressive through the deadline. We hope to get at least one of Luis Robert and Eloy Jiménez back at the very end of the season, but neither is a guarantee. So we are looking for an everyday outfielder, preferably one who can play center, in order to move Leury García and Billy Hamilton into more of a bench role, which is where they belong. We are fine with our rotation from top to bottom, but could use some bullpen depth to help us with the middle innings.
Cleveland
Right now, we are in a holding pattern. We are going to see how the next four to six weeks play out before making a decision. Starting pitching will be a focus for us should we look to add, but we’re not in a position to add a big name. At the same time, we don’t have a lot of obvious trade targets in terms of rentals. Both Cesar Hernandez and Eddie Rosario would be available, but neither has performed this year, so we’re not anticipating any kind of real return. In terms of expiring contracts, the guy we’re actually getting the most calls on is the resurgent Bryan Shaw, who has gotten some velocity back while showing a much-improved slider.
Kansas City Royals
It’s too early to tell. We’ve scuffled of late, but the team played too well early in the season for us to just give up now, and organizationally, we’re not big fans of just dumping. There are plenty of places we can improve upon, but will likely focus on starting pitching if we look to add. Should we go in the other direction, we’d expect a lot of action on Danny Duffy, who should be back in time to give your evaluators a few looks before we need to talk. Jorge Soler could be had for a song, and no, we’re not sure what’s gone wrong there either. Jarrod Dyson could be a nice bench outfielder for someone and Greg Holland could help your relief corps. All in all, we’re probably a month away from engaging in any kind of serious discussions.
Detroit Tigers
We’re ready to talk right now, and understand that our rental-type pieces will not generate any kind of sizable return. We just need Wilson Ramos out of here so we can figure out what we have by giving playing time behind the plate to Eric Haase and Jake Rogers. Jonathan Schoop is a decent bat who can play either position on the right side of the infield. Nomar Mazara could be had for next to nothing. In terms of pitching, Daniel Norris still has stuff and might be able to harness it for half a season to build some free agent value. We would be willing to talk about a couple of players signed through 2022 as well. Robbie Grossman has on-base skills, earns $5 million next year and could be a fit for any number of teams looking for outfield help. We would discuss Matthew Boyd, who enters his final year of arbitration next year, but the return would need to be significant.
Minnesota Twins
We’re close to moving pieces, but not quite there yet. We keep waiting for the club to get going, but we’re running out of time and there are no real signs of a turnaround. If we do decide to go into selling mode, we anticipate plenty of interest in our impending free agent group. Andrelton Simmons remains a premium defensive shortstop that can give you postseason comfort, while Nelson Cruz can transform the middle of the lineup for any American League club. We have a couple of mid-tier starters to talk about in J.A. Happ and Michael Pineda, with the latter being a bit more expensive. If anyone thinks they can fix Alex Colomé, he’d be available for little return, while Hansel Robles would require an actual prospect back. We’re not interested in talking about any players with control post-2021 at this time.
American League West
Oakland Athletics
Moving the team? I don’t know anything about that; that’s above my pay grade. We’re just focused on the roster. We don’t have much room in terms of adding salary, but we’d like to find a corner bat/designated hitter, maybe of the platoon variety, to help there and we’re not sure how much longer we can keep rolling out Elvis Andrus at shortstop. We feel good about the rotation, but will look to add a couple of bullpen pieces on the cheap. Then again, we’re the Oakland A’s, so “on the cheap” can just be assumed. We’re not happy about it either, but you got to play the cards you are dealt.
Houston Astros
Our lineup remains one of the best in baseball. Our rotation is well above-average. Our bullpen is a bit of a mess. We’re 100% focused on relievers and anticipate acquiring multiple ‘pen arms to help us deliver the innings the get us to Ryan Pressly, as we’ve already lost multiple games because our middle relief group couldn’t get the job done. We have one million pitching prospects with big velo and/or big spin rates who we are sure interest you.
Seattle Mariners
We feel like we’ve taken a step forward this year, but we’re not ready to make a push for the playoffs. That said, we really don’t feel like July will really be too busy for us. We will certainly listen on Mitch Haniger, but he’s under control for 2022, and his last year of arbitration should still be a bargain as he’s building off a base of just over $3 million because of the missed year. We’re always looking to move Kyle Seager, but the weird clause that makes his 2022 option a player one if he is traded remains a roadblock. We’re willing to get creative here and use it to buy a prospect if you think something could make sense there.
Los Angeles Angels
The Trout injury and our bad pitching have killed any chances for a playoff run, so we anticipate a very busy next two months. We could end up dealing six to eight players to help replenish the system, but we will be focused on 0-3 players or prospects who are close when engaging with potential dance partners. Thus far, most of the calls we’ve taken want to discuss our pitching. We have three mid-tier starters in Dylan Bundy, Andrew Heaney and Alex Cobb who could all help most contenders, although they might not be starting in a playoff series, so our asks will be reasonable. Raisel Iglesias is generating a lot of attention as a high-leverage relief piece who misses bats and throws strikes. Steve Cishek, Alex Claudio and Tony Watson are a trio of bullpen pieces we expect to simply auction off towards the end of July to the highest bidder if they don’t generate earlier interest. José Iglesias can play every day for some teams, but works as a plus utility type nearly everywhere. If you are looking for power, we’d talk Justin Upton. The last year of his contract balloons to $28 million in 2022, and we’d be willing to pick up a healthy chunk of that in the right deal. He has no-trade protection, but that’s always negotiable and he hasn’t played in the postseason since 2013, so he might be open to the discussion.
Texas Rangers
We’re obviously still in rebuilding mode, and are happy to talk about our players, but we don’t anticipate a busy July in terms of number of trades. We are listening on Joey Gallo, but we don’t feel like we have to trade him by any means. We could wait until the off-season, or even next summer. We’ll need to feel like we are really winning the deal to move him before the deadline. The message is similar on Kyle Gibson, who is under contract for 2022 at a great price, but again, we are open to ideas. We have a couple of smaller pieces in Charlie Culberson and Brock Holt as great makeup utility types with postseason experience. Ian Kennedy is an above-average reliever at a good salary who has already generated some interest and we’re not going to wait on moving him if the right deal comes along.
Kevin Goldstein is a National Writer at FanGraphs.
Yeah I think if the Rangers are waiting to be blown away for Kyle Gibson, and the Tigers for Boyd, they’re going to be a bit disappointed. They’ve been getting by with extremely good homer suppression and while the xERA says they’ve earned their FIP there’s no real guarantee that it will continue. This might be their public face but they need to move them if the return is good.
If I am the Mariners, I am definitely having conversations about Kendall Graveman and what our asking price is.
Agreed. The Tigers are notorious for drawing hard lines on their players, so it wouldn’t surprise me. I don’t think teams view Boyd or Gibson as anything more than back end starter types. ~7k/9 just isn’t exciting and teams would rather not give them a playoff start. Boyd in particular looks like smoke and mirrors, and I wouldn’t give up much for him at all. Maybe a couple 10-20 ranked prospects on a team list.
IIRC, Kevin was in the Astros’ front office when (supposedly) the Tigers refused to trade Boyd to the Astros unless Kyle Tucker was in the deal. And also (supposedly) when the Tigers refused to trade Michael Fulmer to the Astros for anything less than a mind-shattering return.
I don’t really think Boyd and Gibson are playoff-rotation types…like top-3, core members of a playoff rotation. But if they were #4 in your rotation and one of your top 3 guys broke his hand in September you’d feel a lot better about having them. Good #4 types. Probably give you quality innings.
Among starters Gibson is 5th in GB%, 89th %tile in Barrel rate, and 20th in xwOBA, culminating in a 3.15 xERA that is 15th in MLB. If you look at his heatmaps on savant, he’s throwing 6 pitches and all of them at the edge/corners of the strike zone. He’s ramped up usage of a cutter and staying out of the middle of the zone, this is who he is.
The Minor/Lynn trades (or lack thereof) aren’t quite comparable to this year. 2 years ago the Rangers were in (shaky) playoff contention when the trade rumors on Minor started, and his performance tanked (he admitted the rumors impacted him). Last year Lynn used the threat of opting out of the season as a de facto no-trade clause.
This year it’s clear they’re rebuilding, and Gibson doesn’t have the same leverage, so while I think they’re right to set a high price, this is a different situation.
I guess, what is a high price? The only team that would definitely trade for him and would definitely have him in their top 3 starters would be the the Cardinals. Which is really weird to say about a guy who has pitched like one of the Top 30 pitchers in MLB so far, but you have to buy that he will continue to suppress homers to think he’s a difference maker in the playoffs.
Maybe there are other teams that you can think of, but just so we’re talking about something concrete: What would be a fair return from the Cards system? I don’t think any of their top six prospects is going anywhere for Gibson. I’d see Masyn Winn as the first prospect they’d consider. Is that enough for a headliner if it also involved, say, Jhon Torres, Luken Baker, or Tre Fletcher? Would the Cards balk at that? I don’t know.
Cards get both Scherzer and Gibson. Mizzou reunion in STL.
He’s a good fit for the Mets who have a lot of questions after Jake, Stro and Walker. Thor had a setback and there’s really still no timetable for Cookie. But I don’t think you’re getting any of their top 6 prospects back. And it’s likely most teams will draw a similar line, so the Rangers are in a position to receive more quantity over quality but there’s generally a lot to be said for prospects in any team’s 7-20 range.
And of course given where the Rangers are, there’s no reason to hold onto Gibson.
Has his spin spiked..?
“Everyone is available for trade, you may just need to send an ambulance to pick them up”
-Minnesota Twins
Do not think the Angels situation is as dire as you make it out to be, plus doubt Moreno lets them sell off 6-8 players barring a complete collapse.
I wonder what the Giants could get from the Angels if they agree to take Justin Upton AND 100% of his salary (assuming he waives his no-trade) as part of a deal. This may be a way for them to upgrade for this year without giving up key prospects.
Those two did do this once already with the Zack Cozart trade, so it’s plausible to imagine they’d do it again. But it’s a new leadership team in Los Angeles of Anaheim, and it’s not clear that the Angels would greenlight trading away such a good prospect when the payoff is “saving money” instead of “our owner will let us sign Anthony Rendon.”
The Giants would probably start Upton in LF, but it’s a big contract and he’s not much of a defender so the prospect would have to be decent. I think if the Angels throw in one of their teenaged infielders (Placencia, Paris, Vera) the Giants do this deal immediately. I’m not sure about if a pitcher one rung down like Kochanowicz or Holmes would move the needle but I’m sure the Angels would prefer that one.
Really, the only play here is the Angels freeing up cap room for 2022 if they want to go after a big FA like one of the SS available…and the Giants likely having a lot of 2022 cap room to spare. But I agree there’s probably not a lot of motivation for the new Angels FO to pull a Brandon Arroyo + Touki Touissant for Phil Gosselin type of salary dump deal, so maybe the play for the Giants is to get a discount on a guy like Raisel Iglesias in exchange for eating most of Upton’s 2022 salary.
Also, the Angels may be a great fit for the one top prospect that the Giants might consider trading – Joey Bart. Not sure if a bundle of rental players suffices to pry Bart from SF, but including some younger post-prospect guys with team control (like Rengifo, maybe Thaiss) might help persuade the Giants FO.
What would the Giants do with a teenaged infielder? They’d have to wait 15 years to start him. (Seriously, Druggar is 27 and he’s the youngest of their regular position players. I’m not sure they know players under 25 exist.)
It seems the Giants basically have two windows–the one that expires when their entire rotation goes to free agency / the magic potion they gave Crawford / Posey / Belt wears off (so, now and only now). And then the one that involves Luciano and hopefully one of Bishop / Matos anchoring the outfield. My understanding is that the Giants still believe their next title contender is going to be built around Marco Luciano (technically a teenaged infielder, although he’ll be neither or a teenager or an infielder for much longer).
Of Placencia / Paris / Vera, it’s a pretty high-floor group for teenagers. Paris is probably the one I’d want if I was worried about them taking forever, since he’s older and more physically developed than the others. For the burden of taking on Justin Upton’s contract (and who might help them win now, even) I think the Giants would do it in a heartbeat.
Of course, I don’t think the Angels do it, in which case it doesn’t matter one way or the other.
This also got me thinking, who are the players who have big contracts and their teams would like to move on from them at the deadline because they’re not contenders, would cost almost nothing or would maybe even get a prospect for your trouble, but who are also playing well enough that you could still play them? Assuming that Patrick Corbin and Eugenio Suarez won’t garner any interest because they’re playing terribly, that leaves only three definites: Justin Upton, Mike Moustakas, Madison Bumgarner. If the Twins decide to rebuild, then Josh Donaldson would fit here too.
I’d throw in Charlie Blackmon too ($31M in player options for 2022-23), but the Rockheads probably expect to GET prospects in return.
You really think the Twins think they can get back in this? I hope they aren’t thinking that. Also, if either Berrios or Buxton has said they will NOT sign in MN, do you move them, or keep them for next year then lose them (or trade them if next year isn’t working at the ASB)?
Has Buxton or Berrios said that?
They’ve been offering them deals, reportedly, for the last two years. We don’t know what the truth is about why it hasn’t gotten done.
If the Twins feel they can’t or won’t extend Buxton and/or Berrios, they should absolutely be shopping them now. 1.5 seasons (two postseasons) of control is pretty valuable. Next year at the trade deadline they’re unlikely to get impact pieces.
They should be competitive in 2022, but if those guys both walk for compensation picks afterwards things are gonna get bad again.
You said it yesterday–they need to figure out if they’re going to be going for it in 2022 or not. I actually kind of think they should, but no matter what they decide they are going to have a lot of work to do.
I think there’s a pretty good framework for what you would get back if you wanted to deal Berrios, because he’s a playoff-worthy starter under control for 1.5 years. It could really jump start the rebuilding process if that’s where they’re going.
But how would teams actually value Buxton? He’s hurt, but he was performing like the absolute best player in the league when he got hurt. He’s only had one season where he’s gotten 500 PAs, and he’s never done anything like this before, but given his huge gifts you can imagine at least part of it is real. He’s somewhere between a guy who will give you nothing and a guy who will win you the division all by himself. What sorts of prospects does anyone offer for someone like that?
There’s a lot of teams that need a true CF and not many around, so I think the demand would be solid. As you say, there’s the hurt 300PA 80wRC+ version of Buxton who isn’t worth a whole lot (but still better than what a lot of teams have in CF right now), and the potential for the 500-600PA 130 wRC+ monster who’s one of the best players in the league.
It seems like one of those situations where a deal is difficult because the information gap between the seller and the buyer is even more important than usual.
Let’s just take it down the middle: If we just take his ZiPs projection and say he’ll give you that after the trade deadline, and he’ll give you double that in 2022, then that’s roughly 7.8 wins you’re getting. He’s making some money but it’s not that much; let’s just say it’s $70M in surplus value just to make it easy to remember.
From the Yankees, that would be something like Deivi Garcia, Oswald Peraza, and Luis Gil.
From the Mets it would almost certainly have to include Francisco Alvarez, and probably someone like Pete Crow-Armstrong too.
For the Braves, you’d have to believe that Pache will hit enough, or Waters / Harris will hit a lot. You’d want the two you believe in, plus Shea Langeliers.
Each of these would probably have some younger prospects too, but in terms of the big deals, I think these are the sorts of deals the Twins would be hoping for in order to move Buxton. The only reference point for a deal like this is Carlos Gomez getting traded to the Astros. I have zero idea if other GMs would be willing to do it, because teams are so into their prospects now (too much, I think) and the risk is so high (this, I think, they are right to worry about).
Somehow, I wonder if Buxton and or Berrios to the Rays for prospects might make sense.
If Buxton is anything like he has been the last couple years he would end up being a rental for the Rays because they can’t afford him
I almost think the return has to be discounted because the risk of flame out is so high.
For a GM- Trading for Buxton could be the move that gets you fired..or gets you an extension.
“He’s somewhere between a guy who will give you nothing and a guy who will win you the division all by himself.”
Isn’t every player?
Only in the most literal sense.
You don’t think Boston views their rotation as needing help? It’s a very weird group they have for as much success as they are having. Even with Sale coming back, I feel like rotation is their biggest need.
I’m very skeptical of that rotation. But with that farm, I don’t think they can go out and get a meaningful upgrade without giving up Casas or Durran.
Agree with both of you. Their best bet is to try to get an innings eater type like Mike Minor as insurance for the current starting five. IMHO, anything good they get from Sale this year is gravy, so you can’t just bank upon that for the 2021 race.
(Also, Casas might end up being the upgrade from Dalbec. Kid’s starting to rake in AA).
It would be fun for sure, but they probably just trade for a vet like Schwarber or something. He’s only got like 20 something games above A ball.
these are great Kevin, cool premise for the article I don’t recall seeing anywhere else
The Yankees are in a brutal spot. The pitching is good, but the offense has just been awful. Voit is still a few weeks away, and LF/CF/1B have been black holes all season. They could use two OF, but they’ll probably get one and maybe not even that. Does Kyle Schwarber or David Peralta really move the needle much? I’d rather just roll with Clint Frazier or Miguel Andujar and hope they turn it around. Offense has been down so much across the league there are few OF available. Starling Marte will be nice, but there might be a bidding war there.
Here’s a fun idea that’ll never happen: how about dangling Chad Green for an OF? The Yankees bullpen has been great. The problem is contenders don’t really have any excess OF to spare. Oh well.
I posited yesterday in the NL article that the Yankees should pick up Schwarber and put him in LF. Andujar and Frazier are really more 4th OF types than everyday regulars.
Part of me says it’s too early to give up on Kiermaier. The other part of me says if he wasn’t posting his highest BABIP in 5 years, he would be the worst hitter in baseball by a lot. A 31% K rate with no power or on base skills…yikes. Not even the best CF in the last 20 years is playable with a .260 OBP and .079 ISO.
If you’re stuck paying Kiermaier, you may as well keep him as a defensive replacement. Or even a CF platoon with Margot. I’d rather think sliding Margot to CF and upgrading RF would be easier. Haniger, Gallo, Castellanos, Santander…there’s a lot of easy upgrades to RF if you slide Margot to CF.
Then again, I’m not sure we have seen a greater mid-season infusion of talent from the minors as we will when Vidal and Wander debut here in the next few weeks. There may be no upgrades necessary. Especially if Brujan can play CF in the big leagues.
I see Brujan, but what roster moves are going to be made for Wander to get called up? They’d have to move someone off of the 40 man, so it would likely be a trade. And more importantly, why? They are in first place. They are hitting well on the season, and had a monster offensive streak recently. I don’t think we see Franco until September. The Rays are cheap, they aren’t going to start his clock too early imo. And while his 144wrc is great, they will likely see the slight uptick in K’s and decrease in walks and wait, as they probably should. You don’t want to call up the number one prospect in years and have him scuffle, even be average. A 100wrc out of him in his first go around would be seen as a disappointment, and I’m unsure if he would do a lot better than that.
Yep. The Rays promote their prospects slower than basically any team in baseball. If someone isn’t already on the 40-man they probably don’t want to add him.
I think Wander Franco is up after the super two deadline next year. I’d promote Brujan as soon as I feel comfortable with his outfield defense since he’s already on the 40-man but the Rays might decide to delay him for a year anyway.
If the Rays hold Franco back until the super two deadline of NEXT year, it’ll be a disgrace. So normal Rays baseball, amiright? I mean, he’s got a 144 wRC+ in AAA as a 20 year old with a 10% K rate. I mean, literally, what more could you ask for?
I won’t put anything past the Rays, but if he doesn’t get called up this summer it’s a disgrace and clear service time (age time?) manipulation. They’d rather him be a year older when he debuts so he’ll be a bit better and a bit more ready. But is that good for Franco? To just mash AAA pitching for a year and a half. He needs to play in MLB to progress. Would be hilarious if they did all that and he stinks when he comes up. I hope he’s a stud though, just think it’d be funny if they manipulated his service time just for him to come up and not hit.
Also, if you’re not going to call up him up now, when you’ve got your best chance to win a world series, than what are we even doing here? It’s not like they even have anyone good at the position. Whatever, the Rays will Rays.
If this were the “good old days” (2017 or so), the Rays might have snagged Franco on a sign-or-stay down extension like the Mariners offered Kelenic (and like the Rays got Longoria to do back in the day). Probably for something like the deal the Braves did with Acuna. But after the Tatis extension, I see no chance of that happening.
So the big moves for the Rays this summer will be the usual….get the best possible PTBNL’s/cash considerations for their most interchangeable roster members to give them as much 40-man roster room in the offseason. No matter where they are in the 2021 standings.
Regarding tz’s point, I think that often the goal that teams have is figuring out who is going to be on the 40-man and which ones you’re keeping. Some teams do this a little, but the Rays do this a lot, to the point that it’s probably most of what they will do. They will figure out who they don’t want to keep and will see whatever they can get for them.
Some guys, like Brujan and Franco, are not going anywhere. And I’m not sure Brendan McKay is healthy so if they deal him it’s because they’re super worried. But they’ll be making a decision whether Josh Lowe, Blake Hunt, Drew Strotman, Shane Baz, Ford Proctor, and Joe Ryan are in their future plans (also Kevin Padlo and Cal Stevenson, I guess, and about 10 other guys too whose names all run together for me). Whoever they think is expendable, they will trade now for whoever can help them. And that’s it.
Wander is projected for a 111wrc, Walls currently has a 111wrc and Wendle has a 131wrc. Both of those could fall, likely even, but I don’t share your opinion that they should rush him at all. Being a Rays fan sort of I wouldn’t want Franco up until he is 100% ready to be a star. Brujan is doing just as well and could provide an offensive upgrade in center, and most importantly he is on the 40man.
I think Brujan is up well before Franco. And if Walls and Wendle hit, we don’t see Franco til September at the earliest. There’s no reason to rush a 20 year old to the big leagues when he only has 27 games above A+ . Walls is looking like the real deal defensively, so he’d have to hit very poorly to lose his gig anytime soon. Wendle doesn’t have much trade value, and Lowe isn’t going anywhere.
I predict Margot is traded, and Brjuan becomes the everyday RF. If Wendle slumps, Diaz is traded, Wander replaces him on the roster and becomes the everyday 3B, and Wendle goes back to super utilty. Kiermaier gets moved in the offseason.
Curious – how do we know when a guy is “ready”?
Ronald Acuna Jr. was batting .211/.297/.267 in 101 PA in AAA in 2018 when he got the call. He hit .293/.366/.522 ROS in the bigs.
Bryce Harper was batting .243/.325/.365 in 84 PA in AAA in 2012 when he got the call. He hit .270/.340/.477 ROS in the bigs.
With guys like Franco, who have been the best player on the diamond even being 3 years younger than everyone else, I think they’re just born ready.
Wander Franco just turned 20 (that’s sophomore in college) and has played 30 games in the last 500 days, and those are his first games above A+. Let’s cool it with the “The Rays are a disgrace” nonsense.
Franco is every bit as much of a prodigy at this age as Andruw Jones and Adrian Beltre were. Two completely different aging curves, but it’s not like Beltre dragged the Dodgers down with his performance in his first few seasons. Franco might not be an instant savior, but I doubt he’ll stink up the joint once he’s called up.
If Covid didn’t happen, Wander is up already. But he has 27 games above high A. And he’d be replacing a likely All-Star in Wendle, or a guy who got MVP votes last year in Lowe.
Frankco will probably succeed the day he is called up. But they aren’t calling him up to sit the bench, and they aren’t benching Lowe or Wendle. They might trade one of them, but they aren’t benching them.
At least for this year I won’t blame any team for holding a player back. It is bad luck for those players that the minor league season was completely wiped out last year, but no games for a year is what the reality turned out to be for them. Historically, would the players that day one crushed it at the major league level have been able to do it after missing an entire year? I’d wager a significant percentage of them would have been tripped up.
Is Joey Wendle really a true talent level MVP type of player? He’s nice, but he won’t keep this pace up.
The Rays have never been shy about moving established talent for the next best thing. Brosseau or Yandy are upgraded with Wander. Phillips or Kiermaier for Brujan are an upgrade. Lowe, Brujan, and Wendle can play OF. The Rays have a lot of bit players, but only 3 guys who won’t lose playing time anytime soon if an upgrade comes along. Lowe, Meadows, and Arozarena. Wendle and Walls are safe for now, but a rough 3 weeks, and you aren’t holding down Wander and Brujan to see if 2 below average hitters get it together.
Wendle is definitely playing above his head if you believe the statcast stuff. Even regressed, he’s probably a slightly above-average hitter b/c of the on-base ability.
I’ve watched him a lot. He swings and misses a shocking amount, and if they could sell high (doubt they could) they probably should. With that said a team like the Reds could use him as their defense is bad, and his doubles power would play up massively in that park.
Shorter Cleveland: We need starters and guys that can hit. But we’re not willing to give up anything of value or take on salary. And if we fall out of it, we don’t have much to trade away. Hello? Hello? Hello???
Playing off yesterdays National League script and todays American league, here are some fun deals I came up with.
Padres : Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios
Twins : CJ Abrams, Robert Hassell, Justin Lange, Reggie Lawson
About as splashy as the Padres can get, continuing their win-now mode mentality.. Adding Buxton in center, in the same lineup as Tatis, is must watch. Jose Berrios is about as durable as it gets and a high quality 2/3 starter in any other rotation, aside from the Padres…. 1.5 years on both contracts so 2 runs at a ring. Twins get a package of prospects that is hard to refuse.
Like the premise of this, but CJ Abrams isn’t going anywhere and I doubt Berrios is the pitcher that gets the Padres to spend prospect capital (they’d need an elite arm, I think, and he’s not quite good enough to merit the opportunity cost)
Sounds like a fun trade, but Grisham is a star and will be back any day now. He was also the best defender in CF last year (by far) according to fangraphs own metrics and won a GG.
Im thinking the Padres slide Buxton over to a corner spot, similar to what the Braves did with Acuna.
Is that a joke? Acuna is bad in center, and the only defender better than Grisham in center is Buxton.
It isn’t a joke, carter.. Acuna was moved primarly due to injury concerns, this would be the same reasoning… You contradict yourself as well, I thought you said Grisham was the best defensive centerfielder (by far) ..?
Best by far last year according to metrics. Buxton would of been second but not enough innings. Buxton is one of the goat on defense, nobody would take Grisham over him defensively. And Acuna can fake it in center, and he could get better, but he isn’t that great defensively. The other two are great. I actually can’t think of a team with less need for a good centerfielder than the Padres, as they have one of the best in the game. Maybe Dodgers or Bluejays I guess. I mean sure, I’d love to see it, but Padres are solid in the outfield and that would bump Pham to a bench bat which seems like overkill as Profar is a perfectly reasonable all over the diamond guy.
I wonder how many teams are going to be willing to accept payroll, and which teams are going to be willing to pay part of an outgoing salary for more prospects.
I would put the Astros in the being cheap bin with the A’s right now.
Odorizzi signing really put the Astros in a bind.
He eats up whatever payroll flexibility they came into the season with and looks like the odd man out performance-wise if Greinke, Valdez, Garcia, McCullers, Urquidy and Javier are all healthy.
He’s also the only obvious target for a payroll dump trade, along with Aledmys Díaz (who might be a good fit for Boston), but I believe there are restrictions on trading newly signed guys and Díaz is probably too valuable to part ways with for Houston.
This Houston team would be extremely interesting if the Valdez injury hadn’t happened and they’d been able to keep Cishek on the roster after spring.
I would think that Verlander’s salary is covered by insurance, so they may not be in as much of a bind as people believe.
Bind because of the lux tax not actual money.
Whether insurance pays Verlander or not, Astros owner has dictated a budget of around the luxury tax. Teams tend to honor the intent of the luxury tax if it is close.
Diaz has a broken hand so I doubt anyone wants him if they’re counting on a good player for 2021. There have to be less risky options.
Yankees: Max Kepler, Michael Pineda
Twins: Oswald Pereza, Luis Medina, Clint Frazier
Yankees get a strong outfielder, more than capable of playing center, that also happens to be lefthanded. The contract is more than affordable and locked in through 2025.. Kepler would crush it with the short porch. Rotation depth and a familiar face in Pineda who they’d been linked to already earlier in the season.
I am 100% confident in saying that the Yankees would not bring back Pineda, and frankly they don’t really need him. I got the feeling that the Yankees were sick of him with his HR issues. Also his peripherals say that he’s been lucky this year. He’s not replacing any of their top 4 guys, and Luis Severino is coming back soon. Also Kluber might not be too far behind, but maybe not.
Now Kepler, I can see them going after, but he hasn’t really hit this year either. I think it’s fair to say that they wouldn’t give up Peraza for Kepler (SS don’t grow on trees). And honestly, if they are willing to give up a chip like Medina they could probably just trade for Gallo, who is simply better and can play CF. Don’t see it.
Edit: Also if the Yankees traded two of their top prospects for Michael Pineda, Brian Cashman should be fired into the sun unless the second player in the deal is Fernando Tatis Jr.
I think the Twins are certainly open to moving some players who are controlled through 2022 and/or 2023 but Kepler has a team option that takes him through 2024. Him and Arraez are the only established major leaguers that I think aren’t even getting discussed.
How do you not rebuild if you’re the Twins? Do teams really think their 95 loss team might compete next year with just a few tweaks?
If the Twins did trade Kepler, they wouldn’t want Frazier though, that much is certain.
I really don’t think this team is this bad going forward even if the hole is too deep this year.
The offense is better than they’ve played so far. The rookie CoFs look good, JD has been fine, Polanco is rounding into form, Sano’s line is real bad but he’s a streaky player with a better track record, Buxton should be at least above average when healthy, and Cruz is still Cruz (though an FA after the year).
The team just needs high quality pitching. I’d be getting Colorado on the line for Gray or Marquez. Berrios and Maeda (pre-2021) is a decent start but they need at least 1 other guy at this level. The Pineda, Happ, Shoemaker trio looks much better as 4-5/depth, than your rotation regulars in the 3, 4, and 5 slots when fully healthy.
Yeah, they need three pitchers in total, and at least one of them has to be a Berrios-level performer. I said this somewhere else but I think the Twins should try to be real players for the 35+ starter market this winter. Scherzer, Greinke, Verlander, and Lynn are all free agents, and I believe most of them have gotten the QO (or in Verlander’s case, he probably won’t). Just go all-in for 2022 and if it doesn’t work then you can start shopping Maeda and Donaldson and Garver and whoever.
Seems to be working out for the Red Sox.
I don’t see why they wouldn’t discuss Kepler if they don’t believe in the bat given how Kirilloff and Larnach have looked so far.
The issue is that you have to buy in on both Kirilloff and Larnach. I’m there on Larnach.
Contenders who don’t need much: Astros
Contenders who really, really need pitching: Blue Jays
Contenders who really, really need a center fielder: White Sox
Teams that really should be buying and aren’t going to: Yankees, Rays, A’s
Teams that should be buying but intended to sell and now don’t know what to do: Red Sox, Cleveland
Teams that want to buy but their spot in the standings doesn’t justify it: Royals
Teams that will keep finding reasons to not to trade their pitchers: Tigers
Teams that really need to sit down and figure out the future, like, right now: Twins, Angels
Roster turnover machines that are spending a lot of time trying to convince other teams that no, this time is different, this time we have standards: Mariners, Orioles
Hellllooooo! We have pitching!!!!: Rangers
The Cubs fit in 4 categories.
I think the Red Sox are more “Teams looking to buy but won’t be willing to pay the sticker price.”
The Red Sox will obviously want to make moves for guys who can help now and in the next few years but won’t be willing to offer up anyone of substance to get a deal like that done. I’m not sure anyone they can afford will be a substantial upgrade over the group of multi-positional role players they’ve assembled – Arroyo, Santana, Gonzalez, Hernandez.
Crazy question of the day – what possible offer would it take to get Franco from the Rays? I’d assume it would have to be very cheap guys that would be a clear upgrade to their current roster…so is there anyone that would fit the bill?
Acuna
Lol, I was thinking Albies. Just because of that damn contract of his = Rays’ wet dream.
Definitely Vlad Jr. If the Rays could make room in their budget for Acuna, he’d definitely work. Probably Shane Bieber. Maybe Juan Soto or Jose Ramirez, but the Rays probably wouldn’t bite on them.
Franco was #11 on the trade value series last year and everyone ahead of him has 1 less year of control (or signed a mega deal the Rays can’t afford) while Franco didn’t lose any.
Even if we quibble with the trade value rankings (Bieber was only one spot ahead of Franco last year), I don’t think the Rays would do Bieber for Franco. The Rays would trade Biebs before arb 3 and I don’t think they take 2.5 years of Bieber + his eventual trade return for 6 years of Franco + his eventual trade return. Especially given the higher risk of injury for pitchers.
If the Rays can fit KK into the budget, they can fit Acuna, so definitely him.
Vladito is a super 2 but we’re all bought in to his start to this year right? So even though his third year of arb is 2024 the Rays would have to do this trade right…?
I’d say maybe but unlikely for Bo, his third year of arb would be 2025.
Unlikely, but possibly Luis Robert pre-injury?
I think Acuna and Vladito are really the only ones I’m confident they’d do straight up at this point.
If Cleveland was well out of it, I could see something where the Rays take on the “high” salaries of Ramirez and Bieber…they’d probably flip Bieber once his arb cost ran too high, but for a window like this maybe something like Franco + Kiermaier for Ramirez, Bieber, and Rosario would be in play.
Lol this isn’t MLB the show. Also the Rays aren’t trading for guys who are sort of expensive or guys who are getting expensive. Also, Kiermaier has negative trade value. If anyone wanted him, he’d be gone already.
To be fair, the whole premise is rendered moot by the fact that the Rays do not consolidate. Franco will be called up after the super two deadline in 2022, he will play for the Rays until the first time he goes through arbitration, and then they will flip him for a minimum of four prospects. The only way this changes is if the Rays calculate that they will make way more money in 3-7 years.
Right now? Something so crazy no other team would do it. The other teams know not to trade for somebody like Franco: either he will either flame out, in which case by not paying the world for him they will have dodged a bullet, or he’ll live up to the hype and he’ll be available in a few years because he’s become too expensive in arbitration for the Rays. Or he’ll fall somewhere in between, and he’ll still be available because he’s still too expensive in arbitration for the Rays.
(Assuming the whole arbitration thing survives in its current form into the next CBA. Which is another reason teams on the bubble might be reluctant to move pieces: who knows what the team control / arbitration / luxury tax / etc landscape will look like in 2022, after the seemingly inevitable work stoppage and new CBA? A move that looks smart now might look less so next year.)
I’m pretty into the Cubs trading for Fulmer. I’d also want to move him back into the rotation, just find it a good time to get weird
some thoughts:
Galvis to Oakland seems like a good fit in position and salary, plus OAK’s apparent emphasis on glove-first players. Iglesias is another possible fit, not unlike last year’s La Stella trade.
It could make baseball sense for Minnesota to trade Colome back to the White Sox, although that might be a touch too humiliating for Minny.
Rangers should sell on Gibson but seems unlikely given how they operate, although the Lynn situation was more ambiguous than this.
If I were LAA, I’d be on the phone with Houston about a multi-piece bullpen deal, with mostly pitching prospects coming back. A rehabbing Forrest Whitley could be an interesting choice for a trade there, since the Angels seem to like their high-upside, high-risk prospects– Whitley’s got both of those in spades.
NYY, CHW, TB, and HOU could be competing for CF help, NYY the most. Starling Marte seems like the only impact CF likely to be moved, and he’ll be pricey– honestly not sure any of these clubs wants to pay the price for him. NYY and TB are budget-limited (could be worked around), CHW’s very thin on prospects, and the rest of HOU’s position player group is so good that they might just not care very much about leaving CF to Myles Straw.
Robbie Grossman is a cheaper possibility for NYY & CHW given their LF issues, too; a Grossman for Clint Frazier plus young pitching prospect swap seems possible?
The big problem for the Marlins is (1) I’m not sure the Marlins are not going to be interested in covering much of that contract, (2) the Yankees and Astros seem to think they won’t be spending any money, (3) the Rays probably see Marte as a corner outfielder and (4) everyone knows there’s no way he’s on the Marlins after the deadline. So I think the White Sox might be able to get in there, and maybe the Giants too, which is ridiculous because the Yankees and Astros have way better prospects and just as much of a need if not more. (of course if the Marlins are willing to cover the cost, they can get much better returns)
Galvis to Oakland makes too much sense not to happen.
Cesar Hernandez has had a pretty good year! Unfair to lump him in with Sir Swings a Lot Fast Eddie Rosario.
Clarification: a decent year, for Cesar Hernandez. And I’m still rooting for Rosario to do something better with his elite+ contact skills.
There is an awful lot of “The Rays shouldn’t call up Franco until he’s ready! Plus they have Taylor Walls and Joey Wendle!” talk up in here. I think it’s possible that Wander Franco is being disrespected. This is the first FV 80-grade that FG has ever handed out. This dude, who just turned 20, is lugging around a .314/.369/.551 line in 135 plate appearances at AAA, and hit his 6th homer tonight. His career MiLB line? .332/.400/.527. He is a truly special hitter – what’s left for him to learn in Durham? The Rays are Division Leaders, they should turn on the afterburners and call up Franco… go for the kill shot.
Taylor Walls is a defensive wizard with a 132 wRC+ at SS. Joey Wendle is a defensive wizard with a 131wRC+ at 3b. Brandon Lowe made an All-Star game in 2019 and got MVP votes in 2020. There’s not currently a starting gig for Wander, and you don’t start his clock to have him ride the bench.
Sure but consider that winning isn’t Valuable in today’s MLB. What is more Valuable: one possible shot at a WS and starting his clock or holding him back for The glorious Future?
This. Large market teams think like this. The Rays take this thinking and multiply it by 100.
What about the royals shopping michael a taylor? I would be fine bringing him in if I were the yankees or white sox and didnt want to go all out on starling (or ketel) marte for cf
Mets too.
Why would the White Sox want Michael A Taylor though? They have a much better glove first CF on their roster in Adam Engel.
awesome series. i am curious about how realistic teams are when assessing their current situation. like if youre, say, the twins do you really feel like you can turn it around this year? does every team that could reasonably make the postseason think they have to go for it? we look at it and think ‘there’s almost no chance, they should sell’ but almost no chance isnt the same thing as literal zero percent (see dave cameron telling the royals to sell that year lol). or would you say theyre pretty much all analytical enough to acknowledge they should likely pack it in?