Scripting the Reach-Out Calls: National League
Last week, I wrote about how June is reach-out call season and how teams gather beforehand to establish an agreed upon outbound messaging to other teams about their plans. In that spirit, I tried to insert myself into each team’s discussions, and craft a suggested script for each club’s initial calls. We begin today with the National League.
National League East
New York Mets
We’ve had a ton of injuries and some big players haven’t really gotten going yet, but at the same time we are in first place, so we’re definitely going to be making a push. We feel good about the top of our rotation, but will be looking for some second tier starters for the last one or two slots. They’re the kind of guys who help get us to the playoffs, but probably don’t start in a series and so are lower acquisition cost types, unless Kevin Gausman or Max Scherzer become available. We’re also in the market for a center fielder, but there’s not much out there and we would want them to be a clear upgrade. We have financial room and we can be aggressive, but it’s going to take something really wild to access any of our top prospects like Francisco Álvarez, Ronny Mauricio and/or Brett Baty.
Atlanta Braves
We’ve been under .500 for most of the year, but we’re in second place and feel like we are a better team than this, so we will be looking to add. It’s tough because we’re owned by a corporation and not a person, so budget stuff is always going to be in play and we’ll need clarity from the top. We’re operating under the assumption that Marcell Ozuna’s tenure as a Brave has come to an end, so between that and Cristian Pache not hitting, the outfield is a point of focus for us, both in terms of finding a bopper for the middle of the lineup and someone to provide some depth. Travis d’Arnaud is arriving for the second half, so we’re fine at catcher for now. We feel good about our rotation, especially once Huascar Ynoa comes back from his silly injury, but we’ve had problems in the bullpen, especially with the bridge innings that get us to the end game; we should be players in the reliever market.
Philadelphia Phillies
It’s hard to say where we are at right now. We’re scuffling around .500 and feel like we’re better than this, but we’re not ready to get aggressive in terms of buying or selling. Let’s check back at the beginning of July? We’re happy with the everyday lineup for the most part, but our bench is pretty barren, so we’ll be looking to shore up there and get some ‘pen help should we decide to make a push.
Washington Nationals
We are not ready to open up for business yet, but we are close, so we would like your thoughts on Max Scherzer should we start listening on him in the coming weeks. Keep in mind that Max has 10-5 rights, so we will need to get approval from him for any trade. He’s aware of that, obviously, but we haven’t had specific talks with him yet in terms of potential destinations. And while he’s technically a rental, he also has all sorts of deferred money, so how we handle that will help define the return we are looking for. If we decide to sell, it will be a full court press. Brad Hand and Daniel Hudson make any bullpen better, and Jon Lester isn’t what he used to be, but he provides some stability and presence in the back of a rotation. In terms of position players, Starlin Castro and Josh Harrison should be decent infield depth pieces for someone, and Kyle Schwarber provides a lefty power source. We’re just putting out feelers for now, but unless something really positive happens over the next two weeks, expect things to pick up and get serious by the end of the month.
Miami Marlins
We don’t have the biggest names available, but we have a lot of players on the table, and might be your best option for a package deal that addresses multiple concerns. Keep in mind that we are already down the road on some of these players with teams, so if you want to get in, you might not want to wait until next month. Starling Marte is our best player as well as our best performer this year and will be the one we are looking to get the greatest return for. In terms of outfielders, Corey Dickerson hasn’t had a great year, but he has a track record of hitting and could be the lefty bat you are looking for. We’re getting a lot of calls on Jesús Aguilar; he’s a good power source and great guy to have in the clubhouse. Miguel Rojas can be a solid everyday shortstop or downright outstanding utility player for the right team. And while he’s obviously not a guy who is going to give you a lot of offense, Sandy León is a veteran catcher who knows how to fold up back there in the playoff setting. We’re holding on to our young starters, but in terms of ‘pen arms, Yimi García has been really good for us in a closer role and could set up for most playoff teams. On a smaller scale, Ross Detwiler can provide some lefty depth. It’s an expansive menu and we’re all ears.
National League Central
Milwaukee Brewers
We’re unlikely to move on anything big, as much as we are looking to make a series of incremental improvements. We’re still not comfortable with our first base situation and would like to find a mid-range bopper we can just plug in there who hits in the five or six hole every day. We’re very happy with our rotation, especially the potential playoff parts of it, so in terms of arms, we’re shopping for some bullpen improvement. Brent Suter has been up and down, and we’re hoping Hoby Milner will help, but an upgrade from the left side would help us feel better about it. That said, we’re not restricted to lefties and the way we use our starters, any additional ‘pen pieces would be of interest.
Chicago Cubs
The team is playing very well of late, so we’re not taking any calls on the impending free agents; it would take quite a collapse for that to change. We will feel better about our lineup once everyone is healthy, but we could use some more outfield depth. I know we told Joc Pederson that he would play every day here, but we can’t keep throwing him out there against lefties if we are making a playoff push, so a platoon piece to give us more firepower against southpaws would help. Our bullpen has exceeded all expectations, but we’re not comfortable at all with our rotation, especially in a playoff setting. If we get the green light from ownership, we will be laser focused on starting pitching.
St. Louis Cardinals
We’re a little stuck in terms of both our roster and payroll, so while we expect to make some moves, they will likely be on the margins unless we can find a clear upgrade to play a corner outfield. Like everyone, we’ll look at some bullpen arms and starter depth, but with our performance over the last week, we’re back in assessment mode, so feel free to check in a little bit later in the month while we figure out where we are going.
Cincinnati Reds
We’re only a handful of games out of first place, but there are also three teams ahead of us in the standings and we know that this division is highly unlikely to produce a Wild Card team. Right now we are standing pat, but we would talk about Tucker Barnhart right now in order to allow us to play Tyler Stephenson every day once Joey Votto comes back from the Injured List.
Pittsburgh Pirates
We’re ready to move on deals right away, we just don’t have much to deal. We’d listen on Adam Frazier, but with one year of arbitration remaining, we see him as much more than a rental and will want something real in return. We’ve already taken a lot of calls on Bryan Reynolds, and unless somebody wants to really blow us away, we’re not looking to move him. He’s still a Pirate for at least four more years and we’re hoping to turn this ship around faster than that. Yes, Gregory Polanco has been bad, but maybe a change of scenery would do him well, and if you want to get creative we can eat some of the money in order to improve our prospect return. We know it’s not a lot in terms of pitching, but Tyler Anderson doesn’t impact your payroll and might give you some consistency at the end of the rotation. In terms of bullpen arms, we’d listen on Richard Rodríguez and spin king Chris Stratton, but both still have two years of control left, so we’ll need to get back something we really like.
National League West
San Francisco Giants
Look, we are in first place and have the best record in baseball. We’re in no position to talk about moving our impending free agents. Maybe in a month if something bad happens, but we’re not even considering it right now and making no plans for it. We’re going to make a run here, but anticipate incremental improvements as opposed to a headline deal. With Evan Longoria’s injury we’d like to improve our infield situation, especially at second and third base. On a smaller scale, a veteran backup catcher to help get Buster Posey through the season would be of interest to us, and while we’re happy with the back of our bullpen, we’d like to improve our middle relief depth.
San Diego Padres
We’re the Padres, we’re splashy, and we’re going to look to make more waves in July. Interest is in any and all impact players available, and we have the prospects to get a deal done. We’d love to find a big bat we can plug into our outfield, allowing us to transition Tommy Pham into more of a flex role in the grass. It’s hard to find starting catchers in the middle of a season, but finding one to move Victor Caratini to a backup role would be a low-key big upgrade for us. We just don’t need any pitchers unless they’re absolute studs who win postseason games for us.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Yeah, I can’t believe we’re in third place either, but nothing has really gelled for us and we still think we have one of the, if not the, best teams in baseball. Once Corey Seager returns, our lineup is kind of locked in, but we might have interest in a bench bat or two. Like everyone else, we will be looking to lengthen our bullpen.
Colorado Rockies
Trevor Story will be healthy soon and as soon as he is, let the bidding begin. We would prefer to get one or two prospects we really like as opposed to a bigger package that includes more players but ones we’re not as crazy about. We need to get into the top of your prospect list to start a discussion. The same goes for Jon Gray. His imaging came back clean, and he’ll be back on the mound soon. The ways things are going, he will likely be one of the better starters on the block, and we’re going to treat him that way in regards to discussions. We’d be willing to eat some of Charlie Blackmon’s money in order to get a real prospect back. On a smaller scale, C.J. Cron provides some pop and on-base skills from the right side and doesn’t impact your payroll much. Mychal Givens is a consistently solid reliever who can be had for a rental price. We’re ready to talk about any of these guys starting yesterday, but frankly would discuss anyone on our roster if we thought a deal would make us better in the future.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Phones are open, so call now. We’ve already had a few inquiries on David Peralta as a veteran hitter at a decent price, while Eduardo Escobar and Asdrúbal Cabrera are both infielders who could play a starting or bench role on the right club. It’s early, but Josh Reddick has been hitting well and could be had for a low acquisition price. We don’t have much in the way of pitching, but if you get a little desperate for a starter, we’d give away Madison Bumgarner just to get out from under the contract.
Kevin Goldstein is a National Writer at FanGraphs.
Thank you for this great follow up piece. I would guess that the Padres would be interested in starting pitchers who wouldn’t start a playoff game, as they need arms for the second half of the season to supplement Weathers (who is on an innings count of some sort) and Lamet (who may not survive the season).
I’m not sure they really “need” anything aside from a catcher they feel good about until Nola returns. But yes, I would imagine that every team who is buying is looking for both back-end starters and relievers.
I like this, but I’m not sure that I see most of the Central thinking like this. Besides the obvious Pirates selling, I think the others are probably looking for more aggressive moves to win a winnable division. You have them all pretty tempered.
Well this is coming off an off-season where they all were very tempered. Aside from Nolan Arenado falling into the lap of the Cardinals, which of those four teams actively tried to get better?
The playoff odds aren’t all that different from what they were on April 1st either – it Kinda makes sense for them to repeat their offseason behavior
Arenado didn’t fall into anyone’s lap. The Cards paid a serious price, mostly in future dollars, that has to affect how they think of high-impact (and cost) acquisitions. They bought him. They also lost Austin Gomber, who isn’t Jacob DeGrom by a long shot but the Cards sure could use him about now.
Key word: *future* (dollars). The NL Central teams like many others are still hampered by COVID concerning their current payrolls.
Agreed, we already saw the Brewers go out and get a 25 YO SS from last year’s WS runner up
Oh AND that trade was extremely affordable in player cost, same for Arenado
That was a fantastic deal for the Brewers, but it was only possible because the Rays screwed up by holding Adames, figuring that playing him in a stadium where he literally couldn’t see the ball would raise his value more.
I am not sure what an equivalent of that deal could possibly be. Even if a team traded for Patrick Corbin or Eugenio Suarez for absolutely nothing and the other team picked up most of the tab and they went on a tear immediately afterwards, I’m not sure anyone would have called it a steal at the time because there’s not an obvious reason think they’d turn it around.
The Rays did what they do: moved on from a player about to make more money in favor of ready in house players. Obviously this wasn’t feasible during 2020 because of that whole pandemic thing eliminating the MiLB season, so it happened later instead. They’re probably not counting the pennies missed by not trading Adames sooner tbh, went to a pandemic WS with him making little money and all
I don’t think there will be an equivalent so much as generally quality players can be had for cheap for reasons (mostly I assume crying pandemic poor, the only time anyone acknowledges the pandemic’s impact on baseball, or not being part of The Future due to Aging or having some kind of contract that isn’t league min)
“it’s tough because we’re owned by a corporation and not a person”
You mean like most pro sports teams?
No.
Blue Jays, Braves, and technically the Nationals are the only corporate-owned teams right now (and the Nationals are owned by a family corporation because Ted Lerner is 95).
The Lerner family owns the Nats – it functions as a very traditional family-owned franchise, not as a corporate owner.
Aren’t the Dodgers owned by a hedge fund?
Corporations are people, my friend.
Arguably better/superior
“Arguable” perhaps in the strictest sense, in that I guess it can be (wrongly) argued…
Unpopular opinion: if corporations aren’t people, neither are unions.
Maybe I’m just old fashioned but I prefer my “people” to just be people. Makes everything simpler.
Tommy Pham isn’t going to end up in a flex role. It feels like his bat has been bad this year, but he still has a 106wRC+ and will likely end up closer to his career 126 by seasons end. His x stats are better (even though I don’t trust them with new balls) and his lowest projection ros is 114, and I would take the over. His glove leaves a lot to be desired, but I’m sure he will be a pt of/pt DH next year.
Also it is the second time you have mentioned Padres looking for a catcher which I don’t get. Caratini has an above avg wrc for a catcher this year, and their best catcher Austin Nola has a better career wrc than Contreras, Realmuto, Perez, Molina, Ramos etc. While I would likely take the under moving forward it isn’t like there is better catchers readily available and they gave up an absolute haul to get him (France, Trammell, Torres, Munoz) . Oh and they have the top hitting “catcher” prospect in the high minors as well.
That was a wild trade. Initially I thought they were going to convert France to a catcher like w Nola (I mean he was) but it doesn’t look like they thought to do that, and Raleigh is probably Zunino or better.
They could use a catcher to get them through the next couple of months, but it’s complicated because in August they’d be carrying 3 catchers and that’s not ideal. And I agree, Pham is not going to be sitting unless they need to give him a breather. Maybe they decide he’s the backup to Grisham in CF but they have 3 second basemen and the justification for having all of them is so that they can handle the corner outfield on occasion.
Yeah I think the Padres are fine with Caratini until they can run with Nola and Caratini. Caratini’s a good player despite the binary analysis (> 100 good, <100 doooom)
Buyers who don’t need much: Padres, Dodgers
Buyers who really should get an actual third baseman: Mets
Teams that want to buy and have serious needs but aren’t going to: Brewers, Cards
Teams that should be buying but intended to sell and now don’t know what to do: Giants, Cubs
Teams that want to buy but their spot in the standings doesn’t justify it: Reds, Phillies, Braves
Sellers who are going to be really disappointed with the offers they get: Rockies, D-Backs
Teams that will try to swap a current major leaguer for a boom or bust bat: Marlins
Helllooooooooooo!! Give us a call! We have pitching!!! : Pirates, Nationals
Secretly I don’t think the Cubs ever planned to sell so much as sports media works for The Man. They won a division in extreme conditions last year despite career worsts from everyone but Hendricks, and only didn’t run away with it because they got smacked with a week off at their hottest. I think all this confusion is marketing, slick storytelling, generic and/or thoughtless analysis
What maybe is most infuriating about the perception is that the same media robbed Darvish of the CY to give to a guy on the THIRD place team in the same division. It’s transparently gross. That and generic thinking is still that selling and tanking over years and years is a viable strategy
They’ll be buying
Ah yes, it was the sports media that made the Darvish deal. What a big buy move.
?? What does that have to do with what I said? Darvish was robbed of a CY, nothing controversial in saying that, by the same shills who parrot that trading him (a mid-late 30s pitcher with a 3 year deal and plenty of recent arm injuries) was some kind of apocalyptic event for the Cubs. I find their behavior and analysis, if independent, hypocritical and lazy at best. The Rays do the same thing with a guy almost a decade younger and they get their balls washed for it, it’s so transparently hack
It’s true that lots of people assume that if the Rays did it, it must be smart. That’s certainly incorrect. But in this specific case, the Rays got a far better package of players back for a worse pitcher.
I liked the Cubs return for Darvish, especially given that they got rid of the entire contract, but it’s also true that probably the 5th richest team in MLB traded away their best pitcher (and maybe best player, period) for cost reasons and now are staring down a playoff chase where that same player they ditched would have made them the favorites in the race. The Darvish move made sense as long as they didn’t think they were contenders but now that they are it’s real awkward now.
“But in this specific case, the Rays got a far better package of players back for a worse pitcher.”
See this is easy to say but is it a true fact or just like the common thinking of the day? The names are more known certainly, but is that the end game or enough to make such huge conclusions? Hunt got a boost after the trade because Rays but isn’t like a star prospect at catcher. Wilcox can’t strike out A ball hitters and was more bark than bite in college too. Patino’s got an arm and will allow the Rays to continue their pitcher workload experiments/assignments for the league, but still has years through the injury nexus with very little innings buildup for an elite SP prospect. Mejia’s meh
It’s very, very, very, very, very possible, maybe even likely, that Reginald Preciado is the best prospect and player in either deal. If trading a star, I want a potential star back and among the prospects traded only Preciado has an obvious star ceiling before things start moving
Darvish wouldn’t even have a pretend case for the best player on the Cubs without last year, and even then it will always be Kris Bryant. You guys can insist it was *purely* cost all day every day, but bottom line is that there’s nothing crazy out there about trading a 34 YO pitcher with 3 years on his deal and both recent poor performance plus arm injuries. The trade made sense from the moment it was made, textbook case of selling high. I think my favorite aspect of the reaction is Darvish himself has said (I’m paraphrasing) that the same people saying all these nice things now are the same people who trashed him when he was low in 2018-2019 or during that WS run (and obviously refused him the 2020 CY)
No. That was absolutely the sense at the time. Darvish was coming off a year when he was a Top 5 pitcher, and Snell was coming off a campaign when he had trouble getting through the fourth and fifth inning.
Like I said, the Cubs got a fair return because Darvish had turned it around after being wildly inconsistent previously, and it is a big contract. Also, the prospects they got back were good, even if their track records were very short. But if you had to draw up a list of “who the Cubs could use the most right now, in the middle of a playoff race” you’d go right down the list of starting pitchers. Unless Max Scherzer waives his 10-and-5 rights for Chicago or the Giants hit a rough patch and fall out of it and deal Gausman, the pitcher they’re going to get is not going to be as good as the one they traded away. It’s awkward.
“No. That was absolutely the sense at the time. Darvish was coming off a year when he was a Top 5 pitcher, and Snell was coming off a campaign when he had trouble getting through the fourth and fifth inning.”
?? What’s the that?
“But if you had to draw up a list of “who the Cubs could use the most right now, in the middle of a playoff race” you’d go right down the list of starting pitchers”
There is not a single contender in the history of history who *didn’t* need more high end pitching for the stretch run. The Cubs are not in some special or unique position in that regard
German Marquez should be available and he’s plenty good. Probably others to buy low on like a Kyle Freeland. If they didn’t sell Darvish high, we’d be hearing about injury risk or age related decline as there’s always something to pick at if needed
Also also the Cubs are already the favorites in the NL Central race. They’re literally the only team in the division with a positive run differential, this despite the Brewers getting career first halfs from most of their starting rotation (a group yet to have one guy throw a full 162 game schedule IIRC). There’s a 29 point difference in run differential between them and the Brewers, the next closest NL Central team, and that gap is the widest lead any leading team in any division has over the next best. The Cubs are objectively fine without Darvish with tons of room to add both from outside and within
Lol hate hate hate! I genuinely enjoy how poorly other baseball fans are taking their giant whiff on the Cubs. It was 100% foreseeable, even easy to see, but you chose Disney’s take or whatever
Ok I’ll feed the machine here.
I can’t see how you can so confidently say “Darvish was robbed of a CY, nothing controversial in saying that…” To my eyes there’s certainly an argument for how this actually went down and your position here might be the more controversial one. Perhaps not. Arguments either way I’d say, but how a team finishes isn’t the main reason to assign a Cy.
The only reason it’s controversial is because everyone likes to pretend the pandemic did nothing but lose teams money, nothing changed about mainstream player evaluation. You don’t just drop 102 games from the schedule and evaluate the CY and all other awards like winning didn’t and doesn’t matter (granted the owners and their shills largely pulled it off). It’s every bit as hacky as way way overvaluing the W for pitchers in a regular 162
I do get that there’s a case he shouldn’t have won, but it relies so so so heavily on voters finally thinking like they should during a 162 that it just annoys me. Like I get that that it took decades for these people to think different about voting for the CY, but swapping one dogma for another isn’t progress either (granted no one cares and it’ll work fine during non-pandemic dramatically shortened seasons)
The Brewers have already been proactive in addressing their SS need, I don’t see why they would sit on their hands at the deadline. Gotta figure Stearns & company deal for at least one reliever & one corner IF, even if they are just ho-hum vets like Asdrubal Cabrera or Daniel Hudson.
Don’t think they need much relief help, but I can see a small trade happening. Someone like asdrubal would instantly be there second or third best hitter (I would slot him after Adames tbh as I buy into who he has been for his career away from the Trop). Maybe Navarez as well, but he is a catcher. I would hope they’d go for a bigger splash, but I doubt it. I do wonder how many teams that seem to be excellent at developing pitchers like the Brewers are really just better at sticky stuff. It didn’t seem to matter with Burnes last time out but it was the dbacks and he did have the biggest spinrate drop in the entire MLB, so at minimum it is something to watch moving forward. Which reminds me, where is fangraphs article? Seems odd they haven’t written one yet.
I agree that they should, the Brewers have places all over they can upgrade and the division is very winnable. They really could use both a 1B and a 3B, a couple good relievers, and a starting pitcher who is better than Brett Anderson. They should be buyers.
I have a theory, and this is crazy, but call me…well, call me crazy. But my secret dream trade is the Marlins decide they can fix Keston Hiura (they love guys like him) and the Brewers get Brian Anderson and Garrett Cooper (not to be confused with the well-known news anchor Brian Garrett). Except Brian Anderson is hurt. So maybe not.
But the Brewers are in a weird spot where aside from Hiura (who doesn’t really fit on a team where the two best players play 2B and LF and who should be playing every day on a bad team to fix his issues) they don’t really have a lot of obvious trade pieces. Feliciano, maybe; maybe Tristen Lutz. Turang if they get back a top-end piece but I don’t think the league views him that way. They are going to have to take on salary and I’m not sure they will.
Their ownership has shown a willingness to take on salary when they’ve had windows in the past, I don’t agree that will be a barrier. They’re not going to eat a bad long-term contract but short-term costs are not going to be an issue.
I do agree that’s their easiest route to acquiring talent — Hiura and Turang are the two obvious trade chips but I’m not sure what value Hiura has right now, and don’t think they move Turang unless they’re getting controllable talent in return.
I think you’re right but it’s going to be hard to get talent without taking on some significant costs or giving up an actual prospect. Even if the Reds gave away Mike Moustakas (which I’m not sure they’d do, anyway) they’d probably have to eat half the cost of the contract to make it palatable to the Brewers. Josh Donaldson is also pretty expensive. Trey Mancini will absolutely require prospects (as will Jesus Aguilar, who the Brewers would probably trade for but would be weird). I think they’ll be hoping no one outbids them for the D-Backs infield rentals and Merrill Kelly, and then find some relievers…somewhere?
You’re seriously underestimating what the Rockies and Dbacks have to offer. The two of them will control the market from sellers side (especially if there are no surprise sellers). Dbacks have maybe the best position player available in Marte, with tons of control. The Rox have a very solid starting rotation with five guys that could potentially be available, from a sure-thing playoff starter in Marquez to a possible one in Gray, and three reliable back of the rotation guys in Senzatela, Freeland, and Gomber. Plus two relievers in Daniel Bard and Mychal Givens that any team could use.
I don’t think I am. The Rockies are not trading their controllable starters, even though trading Marquez at his lowest value would be in character for them. Jon Gray is on pace to put up a whopping 1.5 wins this year; Daniel Bard is fine but he’s not a star. Mychal Givens is below replacement level so far this year. Story is legitimately good but is having a down offensive season (and is hurt, although that might not be an issue a month from now).
As for the D-Backs, their trade chips are a #4 starter on an expiring contract (Merrill Kelly), a #4 starter on a really bad long-term contract (Bumgarner), an expensive short-side of a platoon in a corner outfield spot (Peralta), and a couple of veteran infielders who are playing well right now (Escobar, Cabrera). Marte is so valuable and has so much team control and is so cheap that it’s almost impossible to get fair value for him and I’m not sure they’re even expecting to get good enough offers for him.
Both have players to deal but what everyone is looking for is top-shelf relievers and starters; position players at the deadline have had declining returns for years now. The names to watch for are Max Scherzer (who will largely get to pick where he goes), Richard Rodriguez, and, if their teams sell, Kendall Graveman and Raisel Iglesias. If Matt Boyd and Kyle Gibson keep doing what they’re doing then add them to the list too, I’m just not sure how sustainable it is for him to keep suppressing homers like this. Maaaaaybe Alex Cobb.
Agreed on Marte. They had him at 12th most valuable trade chip in baseball, ahead of Vlad (which has obviously changed) ahead of jram, Yelich, Robert etc, and he would demand a monster return. He is probably a top 20 player just period.
It does seem that lately players have been fine leaving Coors, and I’m not as convinced that the ballpark is as much of a run benefit as it used to be with the new baseballs. Story has a lot of value, the down year doesn’t help, but he has lost nearly a dozen home runs according to x stats, and leads the world by far in 105mph line outs. He is very good. Gray is fine, and Marquez has been a top 10 pitcher by war since he is in the MLB.
Why would Marquez be at his lowest Value now?
Clearly you don’t follow the Rockies, they won’t trade anybody. They’ll probably trade FOR another reliever.
What makes you think Marte is available?!
Re: Pirates. Frazier is having a career year, provides top defense, cam play multiple positions. The Pirates can pay his salary, take back salary. He should fetch a considerable return.
So too, Reyonlds who will not become a FA for a while.
To these two the Pirates can add relief pitchers who get outs.
The Pirates do not need to make trades. The development system is strong. The ML team is bad but not wholly so. Frazier, Reyonlds and Moran are performing well, the bullpen is strong. Yet, the current squad is unlikely to win 70 games and any wins that prevent the Pirates from gaining the 1-1 selection are actually hidden losses. So, the Pirates have a reason for trading players. That reason does not mean dumping them. It means long-term progress by short-term subtraction. Trades would need to conform to that goal.
I don’t think Frazier gets the return you think he will. He’s been basically an average player in his career (which is valuable for sure), but this great start is essentially babip fueled. His exit velocity and other statcast data suggest that he’s one of the worst players in terms of hitting the ball hard and they are in line with his career numbers. His power numbers are in line with his career, and even his defensive numbers don’t look great. He’ll get something good still though. Maybe a fringe top 100 guy.
Reynolds on the other hand, is the guy you want, but like you said is probably not available.
Frazier should get the return I expect or Cherrington should keep him. Let teams who need to upgrade their 2Bs consider the alternatives. The only player on the ML roster who is unavailable is Hayes. Everyone else has a price.
The Rockies would have to pick up every cent of Blackmon’s contract to get even the fringiest of fringe prospects back
Oh, not every cent. You could leave a million cents for the other team to pick up! Maybe even many, many millions of cents!
Gregory Polanco, though, might not even be rosterable. Even if you paid every cent of Polanco’s contract, teams generally don’t trade prospects for the right to DFA a better player off their 40-man.
Yea Polanco has the unfortunate combination of being bad and also too old to be interesting anymore. It’s been 3 years since he was above replacement level, and even at his best was only a 2 win player. He doesn’t look like someone who belongs on an MLB roster
He’ll be playing overseas or on a minor league deal next year after his option gets declined.
Yeah, the market for no (or low) glove outfielder half-year rentals has always been extremely depressed. A lot of guys here seem to be “pay 90% of their salary and get a wildcard prospect back” territory. Blackmon, Reddick, Peralta, etc.
Blackmon’s super popular among the fanbase too. If they can’t get anything back, I’m sure they won’t be interested in paying him to play somewhere.
I like this article but I can’t imagine all teams are really this serious in their thinking. Where’s the team that scripts – We don’t know whether we’re gonna win or lose this year – or next year – and really have no idea of the future. But we do know that after a game – win or lose – we like a big bowl of spaghetti. So some of our players are definitely available in exchange for a big bowl (think party size) of spaghetti and a couple of meatballs.
Pirates should look at trading Stallings to SDP if they’re interested.
I fixed a bunch of stuff to make this correct:
Colorado Rockies
Trevor Story may become available in the off-chance we can’t agree on a long-term deal.
will be healthy soon and as soon as he is, let the bidding begin.We would prefer to get one or two prospects we really like as opposed to a bigger package that includes more players but ones we’re not as crazy about.We need to get at least two young everyday players plus the top of your prospect list to start a discussion. The same goes for Jon Gray. His imaging came back clean, and he’ll be back on the mound soon. The ways things are going, he will likely be one of the better starters on the block, and we’re going to treat him that way in regards to discussions.We’d be willing to eat some of Charlie Blackmon WTF!!!’s money in order to get a real prospect back.On a smaller scale, C.J. Cron provides somepop and on-base skills from the right sideRBI’s and veteran leadership and doesn’t impact your payroll much. Mychal Givens is a consistently solid reliever who can be had for a rental price even a bit less than the Yankees got for Chapman. We’re ready to talk about any of these guysstarting yesterday, but frankly would discuss anyone on our roster if we thought a deal would make us better in the future.if the return will bring us back to 90+ wins in 2022.hahahaha
I am convinced the the Rockies are going to say exactly what Kevin said–” we need the top of the prospect list to start a discussion” and that the result is that no deal happens and he gets a QO in the offseason (and he goes somewhere else). The returns for rental position players at the deadline has been in decline for a while now and Story is not hitting anywhere close to his historical norms.
They’ll probably say the same thing with Gray but since I doubt they give him a QO and they haven’t explicitly said they want to sign him to a long-term contract extension, who knows.
This is fantastic, and damning, stuff. Well done.
Yeah right, an extension for Story has almost no chance of happening at this point.
Kinda feels like Ketel Marte should’ve at least been mentioned.
Ketel is under cheap control until 2025. There is zero reason the Diamondbacks would move him anytime soon.
Except they aren’t good and aren’t close to being good in a division with 2 powerhouse franchises and a 3rd that is playing well. Also, look at how many of these NL teams alone need impact OFers. It’s unlikely, but realistically they probably should move him. They aren’t going to compete while he’s under contract.
Hard to see them trading Marte all things considered. It’s almost certain that teams will inquire, but the Dbacks’ asking price is probably, rightfully, very steep.
They’re a lot closer to being good than you think. They have one of the deepest minor league systems in the sport.
There’s got to be more to the algorithm than that! It’s not as if he’s a spring chicken at the ancient age of 27 or as cheap as losing teams want
He’s not a great fit in CF so teams that are looking at him probably would want him to play 2B or a corner outfield slot. He’s hitting so well and he’s so cheap, I don’t know how any team even matches the asking price. If the A’s rolled up and said, “we’ll trade you Puason, Logan Davidson, Brayan Buelvas, and Jeff Criswell” would you engage seriously? What about if the Cards showed up and offered Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn, and Jhon Torres? I’d actually love to see him on the A’s for a whole bunch of reasons but I don’t think the D-Backs would take it seriously without a Christian Yelich-like package, which was an FV60 center fielder and two FV45/FV50 up the middle guys.
Huh? Marte is a very good CF. Better than the other Marte, who appears to be his main competition for offers this trade season.
Ketel Marte is not a very good CF, which is why they traded for Starling Marte last offseason (also, because Ketel Marte thinks he got hurt more easily playing the outfield, which may or may not be true). I got suckered into thinking he was good in CF. He passed the eye test and didn’t make errors and his UZR/DRS was good in 2019, but his range per OAA (which is more accurate in capturing range, although it doesn’t include throwing) pegged him as below average in 2019 and all the metrics show that he’s slipped a lot since then. He should still be good at second base, though.
Starling Marte is not a good CF, but based on OAA or DRS Ketel isn’t much better
MLBTR says the Bucs have 3 of top 7 trade pieces in T.Anderson, RichRod, and Frazier. Add in Stratton and Stallings and I’m excited to see what BC can add to the system. His focus on young higher end talent over AAA types has been refreshing.
Ozuna is done in ATL? are they off the hook on paying him?
Only for the length of the (seemingly inevitable) suspension.
I find it unlikely that the Braves will find a team to deal for him, and I can’t see them cutting him. My guess is he’s back in Atlanta in 2022, but hoping I am wrong.
What if he hits to jail? Is there not something in the CBA about having to pay people who could go to prison for 3-20 years?
To throw shade, maybe the Yankees can pull another Chapman or the Astros can pull an Osuna and trade cheap for Ozuna (assuming again, he doesn’t get locked up).
Schwarber to the Yankees to man LF is an obvious fit, as the current Yankees’ lineup is super-heavy on righties – DJ, Judge, Stanton, Torres, Sanchez, Urshela. Voit is the lone LH impact bat, and he’s sidelined with a G2 oblique strain.
The Braves could use one of Trey Mancini or Anthony Santander in LF or RF after the (probable) loss of Marcel Ozuna. Though it might be hard for BAL to trade Trey given what he’s gone through.
Cron might have appeal to several clubs as an inexpensive 110 wRC+ bat. Maybe Boston decides to improve on Bobby Dalbec’s .243 OBP. Cleveland could also probably use him.
Schwarber would be a no brainer for the Nats to eat remaining salary for in return for marginal prospects to start fielding a AA/AAA team again. Heck they should package him with a reliever and/or Scherzer and eat all the money for whatever they can get back. Although if Max moves I bet it’s STL that grabs him…the old hometown thing, stay in a weaker NL central and sign for two more years.
100% on Scherzer to STL
But with Soto/Turner/Robles/money, I don’t see why Nats need a full rebuild. Trade for cheap high floor guys to stay competitive, reload with FA in the off-season.
Voit is a righty also!
Schwarber to the Yankees has always felt like a match made in heaven (Yankees preferred him in the Chapman deal IIRC). I think it finally becomes a reality this year.
Feeling like you haven’t worked with Colorado much, Kevin. They’re too dumb to trade any of those players, and too bad at scouting to identify good returns.
Seems like the Mets and Twins match up well on a number of things (Donaldson? Mid/back of rotation starters? Maaaybeee Buxton?)
They have some history as trading partners, too.
I’d like to see this happen, would be a blast. Only thing I’d worry about is Steve Cohen may not be able to be more relatable than he already is
Agree. Surprised that I haven’t seen Donaldson mentioned anywhere in these discussions.
This makes sense if the Twins have decided this group has taken them as far as they can. Donaldson is a good fit for the Mets and you could see the Mets being interested in an exit-velocity beast like Vientos, or Baty if the Mets want the Twins to pay down a big chunk of salary. And someone would trade a lot of high-minors talent for Berrios.
I have no idea what the asking price would be on someone like Buxton. Trading for him is an extreme high-risk / high-reward move.
Yep, the Twins need to pick a lane. 2021 is out. Buxton and Berrios are free agents after 2022. It’s time to either extend them or take a really hard look at what value is out there on the trade market.
Colorado Rockies:
We know everyone expects us to do trades but we still think we’re contenders and we don’t trade anyway. Enjoy the All Star Game!
Big fan of this series, looking forward to things heating up
The Pads don’t need to move Tommy Pham out of starting 9 (I think he’s better than Wil Myers anyway). What they really need is an actual CF who hits more than Profar (who is the actual guy who should be in a flex role).
It’s hard to be worse than Wil Myers
Myers has a 112 OPS+ in 2,500 AB’s in San Diego. So actually, it is quite easy to be worse than Wil Myers. The majority of player are.
Consider his salary, which is nein ineffizient based on my gut and also we have every right to know the number
They have an actual CF in Grisham, it’s just that he has been hurt, but he’s starting a rehab assignment. Also, CJ Abrams has a .370 OBP in AA right now, I don’t think they’re going to add anything more than a platoon rental since Abrams will probably be roaming the OF of Petco Park next year.
This is such a fun piece!
“What’s that? You won’t do Trevor Story for your #25 ranked prospect unless we also pay his contract? You drive a hard bargain sir, but you have yourself a deal”
“We’re operating under the assumption that Marcell Ozuna’s tenure as a Brave has come to an end…”
—You can assume anything you like, but in the absence of a conviction he should be able to play, the Braves shouldn’t be permitted to cut him, and MLB should not be able to suspend him.
If MLB was serious about domestic violence rather than so feigning, disemployment would be off the table. There are endless studies showing that IF domestic violence has taken place, unemployment only makes a recurrence of both it and the commission of other crimes far more likely.
Yeah, but that doesn’t mean suspensions shouldn’t be handed out.
Is a millionaire facing unemployment relevant to those stats? Also, what about as a deterrent?
Playing off yesterdays National League script and todays American league, here are some fun deals I came up with.
Padres : Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios
Twins : CJ Abrams, Robert Hassell, Justin Lange, Reggie Lawson
About as splashy as the Padres can get, continuing their win-now mode mentality.. Adding Buxton in center, in the same lineup as Tatis, is must watch. Jose Berrios is about as durable as it gets and a high quality 2/3 starter in any other rotation, aside from the Padres…. 1.5 years on both contracts so 2 runs at a ring. Twins get a package of prospects that is hard to refuse.
I see seniorgato is back to his ridiculous defend the Cubs at every turn ways. Even when they make cheap clear mistakes
Oh please, the league, it’s fans, and it’s media have long let their true feelings about Darvish show. Giving the CY to a guy whose team finished 3rd in Darvish’s own division during the 60 game pandemic was just another slap in the face. If he were still a Cub he’d just have to prove himself yet again rather than finally get any credit for being the ace he’s been. That trade revamped his image, and *even then* the story is not about Darvish but rather the Cubs. If the situation were less transparently gross, sure, but I clocked how Darvish got treated as a Cub and it definitely, definitely, most definitely was not with this reverence
Also I’m clearly a crazy person
Not a fan of the myriad of trade scenario pieces that have already started making their way into my feed, but love the reach out call format. Great job.
Why would the Cardinals be looking for a starting outfielder? Once Bader gets back later this month, they’ll have one of the better outfields out there with O’Neill, Bader, and Carlson.
True, they have no depth behind them save for when they play Edman out there, but that’s a different problem.